Posts Tagged Chuck Hagel

12/2/14…a country of the wealthy…Democrat or Republican

December 2, 2014 at 10:34 am · Filed under banking, economy, financial, healthcare, markets, politics ·Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “I used up all my sick days so I’m calling in dead.” – anon

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Both following and leading are skills to be learned.” – David Zane Fleisher…note he said ‘both’! TB

Bloomberg Top Stories:
*Russia Sees First Recession Since -09 as Oil Plunge Compounds Sanctions-self-inflicted
*European Stocks Follow China Higher as Ruble Weakens While Oil, Gold Fall – wait China is only gaining back half of what it lost Monday! Gold still holding on to 12/1 gain
*Draghi Treads Path of ECB Powerlessness Toward QE Without Economy Overhaul !!!
*General Motors November U.S. Sales Gain of 6.5% Surpasses 2.6% Estimate – don’t buy presents…buy a new car!
*European Banks Seen Afflicted by $82 Billion Capital Gap in Leverage Test – !!!
*Carter Said to Be Obama’s Choice as Defense Secretary – Ashton not Jimmy!
*Oil Investors Risk Being Left Stranded by Swing to Tougher Climate Rules – aww!
*Saudi-Venezuela Split Revealed Behind Closed Doors as OPEC Emerges Divided – 8 countries led by Venezuela voted to reduce; Saudi’s and 3 others to maintain! NOTE: a cut requires a ‘unanimous’ vote!?!
*Bond Investors Funding Shale Boom Face $8.5 Billion Losses on Junk Debt – EGAD
*Online Consumers Stretch U.S. Holiday Shopping Season Beyond Cyber Monday – ugh!
*Andurand Hedge Fund Is Said to Expand 18% During Oil Plunge
*BlackRock’s Vecht Says Falling Oil Prices Leave Many Portfolios Outdated – and long!
*Israel Early Elections Seen Hurting War-Torn Economy as Overhauls Halted
*Houston Stadium Debt Misfire Spurs $689 Million Bond Overhaul – oops!

Monday’s Market Summary
What a difference a day makes! Bonds had a great rally on Friday – reversed yesterday! Gold plunged $34 on Friday to it low since 11/14 – yesterday hit a new low of $1141.70 the climbed to $1220.40 a HUGE ‘key reversal’ that partially closed a gap to the 10/29 low: $1226.40 before settling up $42.60!!! Crude continued on its downward trajectory with a new 5-year low of $63.72 before closing at $69.00 +$2.85, but with a ‘lower high as well as a ‘lower low.’ What about stocks? Thought you would never ask…and ugly day where a 0.1% gain for Dow Utilities took honors, the only index in the black: Worst was Dow Transports -2.7%!!!, followed by the Russell 2000 -1.6%, the two Nasdaq’s (-1.3% and 1.1% respectively)! S&P 500 was off 0.7% and the Dow 30 lost 0.3%. Ugly!!! A/D’s and Breadth were ‘super’ negative, new 52 week highs plunged back to 201 from a huge 515! New lows nearly doubled from a strong 276 to 447!!! Oh yeah, all this was validated huge volume of 4.14B shares (on the first of the month???) and by the S&P VIX which closed in very bearish territory at 14.29 +.96! Still long? Hmmmm…kind of a ‘cyber Monday’, no?

Total NYSE Volume exploded to 4.14B shares vs 2.5B vs 2.73B vs 3.36B vs 3.1B. Average volume since 9/30 is about 3.6B shares or about 600M more than the 12-month average. Shares traded on the NYSE floor (aka REAL) also rose sharply to 877M shares vs 649M shares (lowest since 11/11 and unusual for a monthend) vs 700M vs 846M – the ONLY 800+ session of Nov. – vs 707M vs 1.04B, highest since 10/31. For comparison purposes, for the prior 12 months it is a historically weak 717M shares…but since 10/1: 816B shares – including that HUGE 1.22B share day – highest since 9/19, followed by two more 1B plus days leading to options expiry!. The lowest was 11/1’s 619M share session. April 30 – September 30 we had just SEVEN 800M shares…since 10/1: 17 – just one in Nov, and FIVE 900M+ days. Add one 800M day for 12/1. A/D’s were highly negative: NYSE: -3.5x vs -1.6x vs +1.6x vs +1.2x vs +1.6x; Nasdaq -3.5x vs -2x vs +1.6x vs 1:1 vs +2.4x. Breadth was even worse: NYSE -3.8x!!! vs -2.4x! vs +1.3x vs -1.1x vs +1.1x; Nasdaq -4.7x!!! vs -1.1x vs +2.2x vs +1.1x vs +3.1x! New 52 Week Highs more than reversed to 201! vs 515! vs 321 vs 296 vs 280 – their range for the year is 39-612!!! New Lows were VERY BEARISH at 447!!! vs 276 vs 84 vs 80 vs 68. The 2014 range is 24-1043!!! S&P VIX ranged from 13.94-14.75, befoe closing at 14.29 +.96!!! Kiss ’12’ and 13’ goodbye! This six days after hitting a very bearish 15.74, highest since 11/4! Now well back in those bearish extremes that had a high of 31.06 (highest since 11/28/11!!!). The average of the past 12 months is 14.00, with a low of 10.28!…high close of 26.25 on 10/15/14! Friday is the payrolls report and a lot of data in between!

U.S. bond market closed WEAK totally reversing Friday’s STRONG session?!? The recent 12 month low yields (10’s 2.09%; 30’s 2.87%; and long TIP 0.83%), 10’s closed at 2.23% vs 2.16% -5/8; 30’s 2.96% vs 2.89% -1-1/2!, and the long TIP 0.96% vs 0.90% -1-1/2! Overnight weaker: 10’s 2.26% -3/16; 30’s 2.98% -1/4; and long TIP 0.97% -5/16. Can you ‘splain it, Lucy??? Libor update: 0.234% 3 mos.; 0.326% 6 mos. – still near their new record lows! The Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% and is currently 0.11-0.13%. T-Bills: 0.02% one-month, 0.02%! 3 mos, 0.11% one year.

Foreign bond yields higher except Greece which is sharply lower for a 2nd day after being hammered (Benchmark is 10yr): Germany 0.74% +1; UK 1.97%! vs 1.89%! +7!; France 1.01% vs 0.97% +2; Italy 2.01% –; Spain 1.85% +2; Portugal 2.80% -1; Greece 7.59%! -22 vs 7.85%! -28!!! 10/16’s close was 8.54%! – cycle low: 5.42%; Crisis high: 12.57%. Japan: 0.41% –.

Gold was slammed early in the session falling to $1141.70 before turning dramatically and creating a HUGE ‘key reversal’ with a high of $1220.40 that almost closed a gap going back to 10/28 ($1226.40) and closed at $1218.10 +$42.60!!! – highest since 10/28 and only the 2nd time above the 40/50 day since 10/21! 11/7’s low was $1130.40, a new 12-month low!). The last 23 sessions have had prints below $1200 – first time since 12/31/13 Last close above $1300 was on 8/15. 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! Res/Sup is at $1200 (psych), then the 40 day at $1202, the 50 day $1204, then the 200 day at $1275. The 12-month high is $1392.60 on 3/17, highest high since 9/4/13. 11/7’s low was $1130.40! Overnight SHARPLY lower again with a session low of $1191.40?!?, and is currently $1200.30 -$17.80?!? There have now been just 7 highs above $1200 since 10/31. Silver also plunged to $14.15 yesterday before bouncing and is currently $16.32 -.37?!? Wednesday’s high close was $16.61! 12/1’s low was $14.12, more than a five year low. CRAZY and crazy if you think you can outguess it…not another ‘Libor’?

Crude continued to freefall, bottoming out a $63.72 – a new five year plus low (6/2010)! It then came back but with a ‘lower high’ before closing at $69.00 +$2.85? lowest since June 2010! Friday’s session high was $77.83. 7 days ago it set a new recent low of $74.07, lowest since 9/17/10!!! 10/25’s high was $84.83. There have been 43!!! handles since peaking at $107.73 on June 13th, highest since 9/19/13. The record high of $147.27 was on 9/30/08, the low since on 12/30/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. RES at the 40 day ($79.45!), then the 50 day ($81.95!), and lastly the 200 day (95.98!), all increasing their rate of decline! A failure here could take us to $59!!! The recent range is now $63.72-$112.24 since 3/1/12. Overnight it is volatile wth a range of $69.32-66.54, and is currently $68.04 -.96! Note that following the financial crisis it traded down to $32.40 on 12/31/08 from a high of $147.27 just three months earlier (-78%!!!).

Global equities mostly higher, led by UK?, Japan up for a 3rd session! Hong Kong recovering; India weaker: UK +1.2% vs -0.9% vs -0.2% vs +0.2% vs +0.3%; France +0.3% vs –0.3% vs -0.3% vs -0.1% vs +1.4%; Germany – vs –0.2% vs -0.1% vs +0.6% vs +1.4%; Japan +0.4% vs +0.8% vs +1.2% vs -0.1% vs +0.3%; Hang Seng +1.2% vs -2.6%!!! vs -0.1% vs +1.2% vs -0.2% vs +2%; Korea – vs -0.8% vs -0.1% vs – vs +0.1%; India -0.4% vs -0.5% vs +0.9% vs +0.2% vs -0.6%. U.S. equity futures somewhat higher: DOW +27 (range 80); SPX +2.50 (8); NDQ +8.25 (16). Could be an interesting day!

Some random thoughts:

…to those of you who said, ‘Aha! TB’s a Democrat’, think again. The Dems have done their own damage but on a much smaller scale than the GOP.

Sadly, they had a chance for change and blew it…in fact, Obama ran on doing just that but then got caught up in healthcare: he won…but at what cost? (Don’t count on his stand on immigration hurting the Dems though). Many of those who voted for him saw him as our last ‘great white/black hope’ – TB included. As for his management skill, is it likely that three Defense secretaries all said they were ‘out of the loop’ as he ran policy with his group of insiders (cronies?). In case you missed it, here is a link to Charlie Rose’s interview of Secretary Hagel – just before he was canned. You decide if he was incompetent: Charlie Rose/Hagel. Also note that yesterday, the FBI said that ISIS is a threat in the U.S. NOW! …isn’t that what Obama got mad at him for suggesting? Yep!

As for the ‘Citizens United’ decision, while there are some Dem PACS they are dwarfed by those run by the GOP (Rove/Koch Brothers, etc). The IRS scandal was about a ridiculous as the GOP constant attacks on Benghazi: if you have a huge number of conservative PAC’s doesn’t it stand to reason you will have more inquiries into them?
As for the success of the PAC’s, consider that for all their billions, Koch brothers got six elected and Rove followed with 5…at what cost? The Senate race in North Carolina cost $100 MILLION…governor of Oklahoma $130 MILLION, both records…and shameful.

Why aren’t people voting? Because by the time a name gets on the primary ballot the outcome is assured…with a good chance of them winning in the primary if they have the PAC money behind them. Why aren’t we up in arms about the ‘selling’ of America (selling out?)? We are well on our way to a plutocracy and with a wealth gap that is the worst since before the Great Recession.

Didn’t any of you question how Mitt Romney got $101 million in his 401(k)? Well, did ya? Turns out he is one of a ‘select group’ – mostly Wall Street types who have an ‘edge’ that shouldn’t be and finally the IRS and Congress (one can hope) are doing something about it. Before a company goes public and share price is say $0.00125 a share, they buy the shares before the IPO and put them in their 401(k), thus avoiding taxes for years (if ever). That’s how they do it! IRA’s were created in 1974 and followed with 401(k)’s in 1978 and designed for the worker. Instead, it helped senior management and precipitated the move to stock options and grants over cash bonuses. It is a travesty. Note also that the ‘carried interest’ provision which allows ordinary income of hedge fund operators to get capital gains tax rates…thus avoiding payroll taxes and Medicare.

We have become a nation, of the wealthy, by the wealthy, and for the wealthy, and if that is not changed soon (and it sure won’t be with a GOP-controlled Congress), we will go the way of all the past leaders of the ‘world order’ – and deservedly so. Jefferson: your ‘great experiment’ is in danger of failing.

As stated earlier, TB is NOT a democrat. Watch this episode of Moyers & Co. to see the evils that ‘some’ Democrat politicians are allowing: Moyers/plutocracy

Note that the ‘special’ taxation of NYC High Rise Condos (only the new ‘monsters that cost from $10-30 million – each get), was ‘bought and paid for by campaign contributions – right before the last gubernatorial election. Prior to that Gov. Andrew Cuomo had created a commission on corruption with carte blanche to investigate any area of state government. BUT just before the election…less than a week…he received contributions from condo developers to sign a law which would reduce a $200,000 tax on one of these $20 million condos – one, not the entire building – to $20,000! When the commission decided to investigate the governor’s office – Cuomo disbanded it! Now THAT’s chutzpah!
Republicans? Feel better now? …or just as digusted as TB is?

God Bless America…please!

TB

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11/24/14…we have a mandate~!

November 24, 2014 at 9:49 am · Filed under banking, economy, financial, Immigration, markets, politics ·Tagged , , , , , ,

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “Conscience is the inner voice that warns us that someone may be look.” – Carolyn Wells

 

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “What is right to be done cannot be done too soon.”

– Jane Austen

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*European Stocks Strengthen with Spanish, Italian Bonds as Ruble Advances – strange?

*The $400B Bond Mismatch That Kept Bear Market at Bay Seen Enduring – shortage

*Hagel Stepping Down as U.S. Defense Secretary Under Pressure – sad, really…he tried…hmmm…what if the idiot, McConnell holds up any nominations?

*Stryker Is Said to Be Weighing a Bid for Smith & Nephew as Standstill Ends

*Snowstorm Will Hit Much of Northeastern U.S. This Weekend With NYC Spared

*BT in Talks to Buy O2 From Telefonica, Is Said to Discuss Purchase of EE – o ge?

*Iran, World Powers Agree (sic) to Extend Nuclear Talks to July 1 as Gaps Remain –ugh

*UPS Teaches 95,000 Holiday Recruits to Fend Off Dogs, Dodge New York Taxis

*OPEC’s Easy-Decision Days Are Seen as Over by Former Qatari Oil Minister

*Ukraine Decision on Joining NATO to Be Made by Referendum, President Says

*Brazil Corruption Probe Threatens Petrobras’s Record Debt Financing Plan – !!!

*Rand Paul Shows Early Strength for Presidential Bid in New Hampshire Poll

*Beef the New Red Bull as Hong Kong Finance Crowd Embraces Hamburger Craze

*Profit on 700% Loans Flows Through Indian Tribe to medly Opportunity fund

This week’s economic calendar is full of important indicators. The highlight of the week will be the Q3 GDP 2nd Estimate (Tuesday) and October Personal Income (Wednesday). We will also get November Dallas Fed Manufacturing (Monday), September Case-Shiller Home Prices, November Consumer Confidence, November Richmond Fed Manufacturing (Tuesday), October Durable Goods Orders, November Chicago PMI, November Consumer Sentiment Final and October New Home Sales (Wednesday). Courtesy of Economic Advisory Service

Friday’s Market Summary

If you stuck around Friday, you must have felt like you were on ‘Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride’ (that, by the way was a ‘D’ ticket ride at Disneyland when it first opened. First, right out of the chute the Dow popped 217 points to the session high of 17894! Only an opening gap of 2 points in that…which produced a new record high for the Dow. The rest of the day was spent retracing to a low of 17763 (+41) – not by coincidence at expiration (10:30am EST), and then gyrating higher to close up 91…still a record high, but…

But when you look at the final results, you have to wonder ‘what was the big deal?’ Fact is, it wasn’t other than the new record high ( for the S&P 500 too: 2063.50). Both were up 0.5% along with Dow Transports, but look at the rest: BOTH Nasdaq’s up just 0.2% (reflected in A/D’s and Breadth which were strong for NYSE stocks), while the Russell 2000 closed up just 0.1%?!? Compare to Dow Utilities up 0.4%. Faux rally? Dunno.

New 542 week highs doubled to 359 while new lows fell back to 66. The S&P VIX wa as high as 13.80, a day after topping at 15.74! It closed below ‘13’ finally, at 12.90 -.68, back on the cusp of being neutral again. Volume was high…natch. Digest that!

Total NYSE Volume rose to 3.9B shares, highest since 11/4, vs 3.1B, lowest in more than a week, vs 3.4B vs 3.41B vs 3.13B. Average volume since 9/30 is about 3.6B shares and slipping, or about 600M more than the 12-month average. Shares traded on the NYSE floor – affectionately referred to by TB as REAL volume also rose to a strong 1.04B shares highest since 10/31 (obviously expiration related!),from 662M, lowest in 8 sessions, vs 738M vs 731M vs 694M. For comparison purposes, for the prior 12 months it is a historically weak 712M shares…but since 10/1: 819B shares and slipping – including that HUGE 1.22B share day – highest since 9/19, followed by two more 1B plus days leading to options expiry!. The lowest was 10/6’s 696M share session. April 30 – September 30 we had just SEVEN 800M shares…since 10/1: 16, and FIVE 900M+ days.

A/D’s were strong on the Big Board but minimal on Nasdaq: NYSE: +2x vs +1.9x vs -1.6x vs +1.6x vs -1.3x; Nasdaq +1.1x? vs -2.6x! vs +1.5x vs -1.9x vs -1.1x. Breadth was even better for NYSE: NYSE +3.7x!?! vs +2.1x vs -1.6x vs +2x vs 1:1; Nasdaq +1.3x? vs +2.8x! vs -2.2x! vs +2x vs -1.7x. New 52 Week Highs doubled to 359 vs 173 vs 135 vs 304 vs 242 – their range for the year is 39-612!!! New Lows plunged to a very weak 66 vs 104 vs 141 vs 117 vs 115. The 2014 range is 24-1043!!! S&P VIX was tamed with a high of 13.80, a day after hitting a very bearish 15.74, highest since 11/4! It closed at the session low (for a 2nd day) of 12.90 -.68. This is its 19th sub-15 close since peaking on 10/15. Heading back toward those bearish extremes that had a high of 31.06 (highest since 11/28/11!!!)? You decide. The average of the past 12 months is 14.00, with a low of 10.28!…high close of 26.25 on 10/15/14! Follow the bouncing ball…

U.S. bond market also closed higher led by the long TIP. The recent 12 month low yields (10’s 2.09%; 30’s 2.87%; and long TIP 0.83%), 10’s closed at 2.31% +1/8; 30’s 3.02% +3/4, and the long TIP 0.99%! +1-1/4! Overnight back to weak: 10’s 2.33% -3/16; 30’s 3.04% -7/16; and long TIP 1.01% -9/16.  

Libor update: 0.233% 3 mos.; 0.327% 6 mos., both steady and just above new record lows! The Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% and is steady at 0.09-0.10%. T-Bills: 0.3%, one-month, 0.00%! 3 mos, 0.12% one year.

Foreign bond yields mixed; PIIGS lower AND they plunged further late Friday??? (Benchmark is 10yr): Germany 0.78% +1; UK 2.06% +1; France 1.11% –; Italy 2.17% -4; Spain 1.96% -4; Portugal 2.94% -4; Greece 7.71%!!! -2 – like buttah! 10/16’s close was 8.54%! – cycle low: 5.42%; Crisis high: 12.57%. Japan: 0.45% –.

Gold closed slightly higher but unable to hold the session high of $1208.20 – higest since 10/30 and first time above the 40/50 day since 10/21!, before closing at $1198.40 +$6.90…still hanging on to 11/14’s ‘positive key reversal’. 11/7’s low was $1130.40, a new 12-month low!). The last 18 sessions have had prints below $1200 – first time since 12/31/13 Last close above $1300 was on 8/15. 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! Res/SUP is at $1200 (psychological), then the 40 day at $1204, the 50 day $1208, then the 200 day at $1277. The 12-month high is $1392.60 on 3/17, highest high since 9/4/13. $1130.40. 11/7’s low was $1130.40! Overnight, range is $1204.50-$1192.80 (only the 3rd time over $1200 since 10/31), and currently $1198.30 -.10.. Silver traded up $16.66, highest since 10/30, and back from 11/5’s low of $15.12, more than a five year low.

Crude also closed slightly higher at $76.51 +.66, but was unable to hold the session high of $77.83 (low wsa$75.62!). Six days ago it set a new recent low of $74.07, lowest since 9/17/10!!! 10/25’s high was $84.83. There have been 33!!! handles since peaking at $107.73 on June 13th, highest since 9/19/13. The record high of $147.27 was on 9/30/08, the low since on 12/30/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. RES at the 40 day ($81.91!), then the 50 day ($84.12!), and lastly the 200 day (96.69!), all continuing to accelerate to the downside! A failure here could take us to $70! The recent range is now $74.07-$112.24 since 3/1/12. Overnight it is weak again…unable to even ‘touch’ $77! Currently $76.17 -.34.

Global equities higher across the board; Japan closed: UK – vs +1% vs -0.6% vs -0.1% vs +0.5%; France +0.7% vs +2.1% vs -1.1%! vs +0.6% vs +0.7%; Germany +0.7% vs +2% vs -0.6% vs +0.7% vs +1.2%; Japan closed vs +0.3% vs -0.1% vs -0.3% vs +2.2% vs -3%; Hang Seng +2%!!! vs +0.4% vs -0.1% vs -0.7% vs -1.1% vs -1.2%; Korea +0.7% vs +0.4% vs -0.5% vs – vs +1.2%!; India +0.6% vs +1% vs +0.1% vs -0.5% vs -0.1%. U.S. equity futures also rallying: DOW +45 (range 50); SPX +5.80 (7); NDQ +15 (5??? But gapped up on the open 12 points!?!).

 

Some random thoughts:

…you have to feel sorry for Chuck Hagel…and now you have to feel sorry for us because with his resignation (remember he was a Republican senator…who ticked off his party by serving Obama!). Save some ‘sorry’ for us as the new, improved, McConnell ‘hold up all nominations’ swings into high gear. How dare Obama defy the will of the people…oops, the GOP who perceives that they are the people after ‘buying’ the elections (read: doing the bidding of the Koch brothers and a few other billionaires). Sorry, guys, but the public wants immigration reform and you are fighting it…sure Arizona is opposed…and Texas, but you aren’t asking the ag people who require that labor to make a living and get their products to market…all the way from cotton to wine!

Once again, one of the two dinosaurs believes they have a ‘mandate’, and once again they misread the vote count…perhaps because those doing the tallying are the same ones who funded the ‘candidates’ – only this time some of them didn’t win.

Tomorrow discussion of the latest Moyers & Co. edition with Lawrence Lessig and Zephyr Teachout (really her name), who ran against the ‘invincible’. Self-declared dictator…er governor…of New York and garnered 35% of the vote in the primary…this, without a single television ad! Scared Cuomo out of his wits – but now that he is safe again, back to business as usual. Cuomo, if you recall, created a commission on corruption saying no area of government was off limits…that is, until they said they were going to study his people…NYET!!! Get out of here. Hmmm, what could he possibly have to hide?

Tune in to Moyers & Co. for what’s wrong with America and how we all can fix it: Moyers: Lessig and Teachout

Have a prosperous week!

TB

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6/5/14…potpourri

June 5, 2014 at 8:08 am · Filed under banking, economy, financial, markets, politics ·Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “A guilty conscience is the mother of invention.” – Carolyn Wells

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “People many hear your words, but they feel your attitude.” – John C. Maxwell

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Draghi Takes ECB Deposit Rate Negative in Historic Policy Move – think negative Fed Funds!
*Fewest Americans Filed Jobless Claims Over Past Month Since 2007 – who’s left to let go???
*Jamie Dimon’s Raise Comes Back to Haunt BNP Paribas in U.S. Sanctions Case
*Sprint Nears Deal to buy T-Mobile US, Valuing Carrier at About $31 Billion
*Deutsche Bank Prices Shares at 24% Discount in Biggest Offering Since 2010 – HUGE discount
*Carney Finds Ally in Draghi as BOE Keeps Key Interest Rate at Record Low
*Draghi-Yellen Split Widening to Revive Market Volatility, Banks Hypnotized – oops!
*Hollande Says $10 Billion BNP Fine Would Undermine European Bank Stability – TBTF – WTF?
*Amazon Said to Be Ready to Debut Smartphone to Compete With Apple, Samsung – hmmmm?
*Alfa Bets Pacific Rubiales Stakes Brings ‘Oilman’ Stats in Mexico – viva!
*Hollandes’ Dinner Plans Tonight Include Putin, Obama and BNP – some hand!
*Taliban Swap Reflects Obama’s Drive to Close Guantanamo Prison – but at what cost???
*G-7 Spares Russia New Sanctions Urging Diplomacy to Resolve Ukraine Crisis
*College Graduates in U.S. Struggle to Find Jobs That Are Worth a Degree – 50% won’t!
*Irish Catholic Orphanage Buried 796 Children in Mass Grave Over 35 Years – a cardinal sin!

Wednesday’s Market Summary:

A dull up day punctuated only by the release of the Beige Book for the next FOMC meeting…nothing to see there except indications of enough strength to perhaps persuade them to reduce the taper again. Most indices barely budged (flat to +0.2%) but Russell 2000 was +0.5% followed by the two Nasdaqs+0.4%…zzzzz.

Total NYSE Volume was about even at a weak 2.78B shares vs 2.83B vs 2.5B vs 3.7B vs 2.68B vs 2.92B vs 2.89B vs 2.4B vs 2.74B! …WEAK!! Real trades on the floor of the NYSE however took another header to a very weak 592M shares from an already weak 657M vs 549M vs 916M vs 544M vs 636M vs 657M vs 554M vs 577M! The 12-month average has slipped again to an historically weak 718M shares!!!!
A/D’s were slightly positive – they have been meaningless for days: NYSE +1.1x vs -1.6x vs -1.1x vs +1.1x vs +2x; Nasdaq +1.2x vs -1.6x vs -1.6x vs -1.6x vs +1.4x. Breadth was a tad better: NYSE +1.3x vs -1.1x vs +1.1x vs -1.1x vs +2.6x; Nasdaq +1.7x vs -1.1x vs -1.2x vs -1.4x vs +2.1x vs +4.3x! New 52 Week Highs a little higher at 262 vs 225 vs 318 vs 271 vs 287 vs 229 vs 336 vs 167 – recent low 71!!! New Lows steady at 96 vs 93 vs 57 vs 60 vs 45 vs 61 vs 50 – recent range 45-214.
Watch volatility closely…S&P VIX remains bullish but climbed modestly for a 3rd day to 12.08 +.21 – first close above ‘12’ in NINE sessions while the range of 11.91-12.33 was tight but the important thing was that the high was 12.33 – 3rd ‘12’ print in 8 sessions!

Overnight markets:

Bonds closed about even after taking that big hit Tuesday: 10 yr closed at 2.60% –. 30 yr closed 3.44% –. The long TIP, which hit a low of 0.978% on 5/29, closed 1.15% –, that’s 3-1/2 points in two sessions!!! Overnight slightly better: 10’s 2.59% +3/32; 30’s 3.44% +1/16; and long TIP 1.15% +1/16. Cycle highs: 30 yr high was 3.97% on 12/31; the 10 yr recent high 3.03%! Long TIP was 1.64%. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5/13.
Libor update: 0.231% 3 mos.; 0.322% 6 mos., both remain just off their record lows, set recently: 0.227% and 0.320% respectively! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.08% since 5/22/13 and is 0.07% -0.09%. Foreign bond yields lower across the board: Germany 1.42% -1; UK 2.67% -2; France 1.82% -2; Italy 2.96% -6!; Spain 2.84% -4; Portugal 3.60% -5; Greece, which bottomed at 5.83% on 2/24 is now 6.18% vs 6.33! -9 o/n! – the high on selloff was 6.75%. Highly volatile!!! Range is 5.77% to 12.57%. Japan: 0.61% –.

Gold closed essentially unchanged for a second day – but a 6th day of decline on an inside session – at $1244.30 -.20. Tuesday’s $1240.20 was lowest since 1/31/14!!! Off $35 last month! This, after hitting $1304.10 on 5/22 – the last time it saw $1300! It is way below the 40/50/200 days and the psych support level of $1300 with first res at the 40 day $1288, then the 50 day $1289, and the 200 day $1296 – note convergence and thus formidable resistance! It has fared poorly since the ‘key reversal’ on 3/17, after printing the recent high of $1392.60, highest high since 9/4/13! Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Overnight another ‘inside’ session and currently $1246.20 +$1.80.

Crude also closed essentially flat after making a charge to $103.69 before succumbing at $102.64 -.02, following Monday’s low of $102.10, lowest since 5/20. Friday’s high was $104.50 – still highest since being slammed on 4/22! 3/2’s session low was $97.37, lowest since 2/4! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. It remains above all three moving averages but very close to first support at the 40 day ($102.17) then the 50 day ($101.91), and 200 day $100.20. The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is a little lower at $102.37 -.27.

European equity markets higher, Asia mixed: UK +0.1% vs -0.3% vs -0.6% vs -0.1% vs +0.3%; France +0.6% vs -0.1% vs -0.3% vs – vs -0.4%; Germany +0.3% vs -0.2% vs -0.5% vs +0.2% vs –; Japan +0.1% vs +0.2% vs +0.7% vs +2.1%!!! vs -0.3%; Hang Seng -0.2% vs -0.6% vs +0.9% vs closed vs +0.3%; Korea -0.7% vs closed vs +0.3% vs +0.4% vs -0.9%%; India +0.9% vs -0.2% vs +0.7% vs +1.9%!!! vs -0.1% vs -1.3%! U.S. Stock Index Futures slightly higher in another narrow range session: DOW +27 (range 43); SPX +1.60 (5); NDQ +3 (11).
Some random thoughts:

…you go to potpourri when there is nothing else significant to say, thus allowing you (the writer) not to dwell on the inane…and you (the reader) to be spared the noise.

First, TB’s bet is that Obama will beg them to refocus on Benghazi after the outrage that was just completed and we now know that in 2012 Hillary Clinton was opposed to the deal. We also learned that yes, at that point they did negotiate with the Taliban…despite protests they didn’t. This leaves Hagel (the Vet), Kerry (the Vet turned anti-war), and Rice (the Sunday speaker), left to defend the deal. Where is Biden…”I know ‘nussing’ “ if he is smart! But then supposing that Bergdahl is in fact a deserter (to do otherwise means you have to disregard the statements of at least three of his former buddies…), and what to do about the six soldiers who died trying to find him??? Some would say he has already suffered enough…what will the families of those soldiers say?

Next item, the $10 billion ‘excessive’ fine to BNP…French President Hollande is upset saying they are being penalized more than U.S. banks…they have a point but only because a) they didn’t cooperate, and b) theirs isn’t excessive…the U.S. banks just weren’t fined enough. As a Bloomberg story today says: if you can’t pay the fine, don’t commit the crime! It goes on to cite an U.S. prosecutor who was outraged after JPMorgan was fined $1.7 billion (one of the more than 300 times since the crisis…without admitting guilt naturally), for ‘enabling’ Madoff’s Ponzi scheme, that the bank gave Jamie Dimon a 74% pay increase! Damn right, he is mad…he would be a fool if he wasn’t – like his boss, Eric Holder! No one…no ONE has either stopped to think how much these banks made of schemes from fixing Libor to foreclosure fraud…and if you can’t make the punishment fit the crime – by exceeding the profit made it is just a cost of doing business and thus no one is accountable and Mr. Dimon can continue to earn as if he were a guru (wait…guru’s don’t make money…they answer to a higher power…true guru’s that is, not financial ones!)

Lastly, since when do nuns…especially Irish nuns operating a home for unwed mothers hide the bodies of 800 children – in a septic tank no less??? How disgusting…what kind of people…who do they think they are? Rapist/murderers in India?

Have a great day…don’t expect markets to offer excitement!

TB

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