3/2/15…end of the trail…hasta luego, baby!

Keep calm and carry on…by drinking wine! TB

Thanks for following the blog…into oblivion…all the best to my friends and readers,

TB

Next week’s economic calendar is full of important indicators. The highlight of the week will be the ISM Manufacturing (Monday, ISM Non-Manufacturing (Wednesday) and Employment Situation (Friday). We will also get January Personal Income and January Construction Spending (Monday), February Motor Vehicle Sales (Tuesday), February ADP Employment (Wednesday), Q4 Productivity & Costs Final (Thursday), January International Trade and January Consumer Credit (Friday).                                   Courtesy of Economic Advisory Service

Friday’s Market Summary:

The question continues: where is there a trend? Dunno, and don’t walk, run, from anyone who tries to ‘splain it to you. On Friday (monthend by the way), all indices were down from 0.3% (S&P 500) to 0.6% (Dow Transports). With the exception of SPX every index (except Dow Utilities +0.1%) was off from 0.5-0.6% – how’s that for uniform? Here’s an anomaly: The S&P VIX, despite all the indices being down declined to 13.44 -.47 –sounds strange but then it was monthend, so could be a countertrade? Volume only slightly higher at 3.5B shares – compare to end of February – 1B share higher! Think!

A/D’s and Breadth were mixed on NYSE and this time slightly negative on Nasdaq, while new highs dropped sharply from 300 to a weak 237; new lows rose again to 68 vs 51, recovering Wednesday’s dip to 41. As Seinfeld would say, “it’s about nothing.”

The ytd scoreboard remains volatile (can’t recall ever seeing it this much before): Dow 30 +1.6%; Dow Transports -1.2%.; Dow Utilities -3.8%; S&P 500 -2.1%; Nasdaq Comp +4.9%; NDQ 100 +4.7%; Russell 2000 +2.1%. NYSE Financials -0.7%: KBW Banks -2.8%; Nasdaq Banks -2.3%. Note those are through February…annualize that!

Total NYSE Volume continued to edge higher and has now reached 3.5B shares, the average of the first 10 months of last year, but still historically weak, especially for a monthend – vs 3.4B vs 3.3B vs 3.19B vs 3.05B, the 2nd lowest of 2015 – ytd low is 2.7B on Jan. 2; while 12/24’s 1.4B shares is the 12-month low. Shares traded on the NYSE floor are no longer available – 646M is the ytd low while 12/24’s 349M is the 12-month low…average is 745M shares! Since 1/5 the average is 846M shares and steadily declining! The Dec. average peaked at 979M shares on Dec. 22nd.

Advance/Declines were mixed this time with NYSE slightly positive and Nasdaq modestly negative: NYSE: +1.1x vs -1.2x vs +1.2x vs +1.6x vs 1:1; Nasdaq -1.6x vs +1.3x vs +1.2x vs +1.4x vs -1.3x. Breadth was negative: NYSE -1.2x vs -1.9x! vs +1.2x vs +1.6x vs -1.8x; Nasdaq -1.5x vs +1.3x vs +1.2x vs +1.1x vs -1.1x. New 52 Week Highs sharply lower at 237 vs 300 vs 301 vs 261 vs 312 vs 315 vs 290 vs 238 vs 297 vs 346 – their range for the last 12 mos. is 39-612!!! New Lows slightly better at 68 vs 51 vs 41 vs 52 vs 68 – 2015 high is 386 (12/16’s high was 712!!!) The 12-month range is 24-1043!!! S&P VIX was slightly higher again at 13.91 +.07, Tuesday was the lowest (most bullish) since 12/26, and below the 200 day (14.65). The recent high is 12/16’s 25.20, second only to 10/17’s (31.06!) – highest since 11/2/11!!! Average of the past 12 months is 14.61, with a low of 10.28!…high close was 26.25 on 10/15/14!

U.S. Bond Market ended the week with a rally. All things considered bonds look pretty good since setting new low yields on 2/4 on Greece: 10’s 2.00% +9/32 (1.64% low yield); 30’s 2.60% +3/4 (2.22% low); Long TIP 0.66% +5/8 (0.49% low!).

Gold managed yet another small gain with support at $1200 holding, closing at $1212.40 +$2.30, but has done little since l2/18’s $1197.80, lowest since 1/5 It peaked at $1307.80 on 1/22. $1130.40 is the current 12-month low! 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! RESISTANCE is the 50 day, $1230, the 40 day $1235, then the 200 day at $1250. The 12-month high is $1392.60 on 3/17/14, highest high since 9/4/13. Silver closed a tad lower at $16.54 -.07. The 200 day ($18.32) is resistance with res at the 50 day, $16.80, and the 40 day, $16.87. $14.12 is the recent low (12/1/14), first time in more than five years!

Crude had to struggle to close higher and even then couldn’t get back to $50, closing at $49.20 +$1.03 – would someone please tell the guys at the pump who keep charging more? 2/18’s $47.36 was lowest since 2/5, negating the Greece rally. 1/28’s low was $44.08, lowest since 3/09. $50-52 is again resistance. 12/17’s high was $58.98. Consider: 10/25/14’s high was $84.83. There have been 64!!! handles since peaking at $107.73 on June 13th, highest since 9/19/13, and it is off 59% since then! The record high of $147.27 was on 9/30/08. Res is again the 40 day ($49.91), with support at the 50 day ($50.52), and major res at the 200 day ($82.84). The range is $43.58-$112.24 since 3/1/12. Note that following the financial crisis it traded down to $32.40 on 12/31/08 from a high of $147.27 just three months earlier (-78%!!!). Recall TB’s prediction of a bounce at $43.83? WILL it test that $32.40 March ’09 low?…by the way, the decline from the 9/20/08 high to the low took EXACTLY 6 months – we are now in the 9th month of decline!!!

It has been TB’s pleasure writing this column and it is he who derived the most from its content. May the rest of the year go your way and your portfolios reflect it. As for TB, he is just focusing on the next three weeks in the Basque country of northwest Spain. Seeing the sights, drinking the wine and sampling the tapas…meeting new people and working on his wine blog and hopefully his book.

The blog will remain ‘open’ and at some point might be resurrected but not in the current format. Perhaps more economically related: the ‘blend’ of the financial and political.

All the best,

TB

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2/27/15…can anyone recall what a trend is? Besides in fashion!

Keep calm and carry on…by drinking wine! TB

Coming down to the wire…after more than ten years and more than 1,670 posts, a change has been caused due to the loss of Bloomberg. He will continue posting for the rest of the week (monthend), before leaving for Spain for three weeks to work on his wine blog/book (www.traderbillonwine.com)

Thanks for following the blog…

TB

Thursday’s Market Summary:

Sure feels like déjà vu all over again…stocks were mixed with the majors in the red -0.1% to -0.5% (Dow Transports), while the two Nasdaqs and Russell 2000 were slightly positive (+0.3-0.5%). They hit Dow Utilities the hardest, -0.8%. The S&P VIX almost into bullish territory with a minor rise to 13.91 +.07. Volume only slightly higher at 3.4B shares but still well below recent averages.

A/D’s and Breadth were mixed: slightly negative on NYSE and slightly positive on Nasdaq, while new highs were steady at 300; new lows rose to 51, recovering Wednesday’s dip to 41. Nothing to see here…what’ a trend? TB has forgotten!

The ytd scoreboard remains volatile (can’t recall ever seeing it this much before): Dow 30 +2.2%; Dow Transports -0.6%.; Dow Utilities -3.9%; S&P 500 -1.8%; Nasdaq Comp +5.4%; NDQ 100 +5.2%; Russell 2000 +2.6%. NYSE Financials -0.6%: KBW Banks -2.3%; Nasdaq Banks -1.8%.

Total NYSE Volume continued to edge higher but remains weak at 3.4B shares vs 3.3B vs 3.19B vs 3.05B, the 2nd lowest of 2015, vs 3.27B – ytd low is 2.7B on Jan. 2; while 12/24’s 1.4B shares is the 12-month low. Shares traded on the NYSE floor are no longer available – 646M is the ytd low while 12/24’s 349M is the 12-month low…average is 745M shares! Since 1/5 the average is 846M shares and steadily declining! The Dec. average peaked at 979M shares on Dec. 22nd.

Advance/Declines were mixed, with NYSE slightly negative and Nasdaq slightly positive: NYSE: -1.2x vs +1.2x vs +1.6x vs 1:1 vs +2.1x; Nasdaq +1.3x vs +1.2x vs +1.4x vs -1.3x vs +1.1x. Breadth was similar, NYSE worse: NYSE -1.9x! vs +1.2x vs +1.6x vs -1.8x vs +2.1x; Nasdaq +1.3x vs +1.2x vs +1.1x vs -1.1x vs +1.7x. New 52 Week Highs steady at 300 vs 301 vs 261 vs 312 vs 315 vs 290 vs 238 vs 297 vs 346 – their range for the last 12 mos. is 39-612!!! New Lows up slightly at 51 vs 41 vs 52 vs 68 from a WEAK 45 – 2015 high is 386 (12/16’s high was 712!!!) The 12-month range is 24-1043!!! S&P VIX was slightly higher again at 13.91 +.07, Tuesday was the lowest (most bullish) since 12/26, and below the 200 day (14.65). The recent high is 12/16’s 25.20, second only to 10/17’s (31.06!) – highest since 11/2/11!!! Average of the past 12 months is 14.61, with a low of 10.28!…high close was 26.25 on 10/15/14!

U.S. Bond Market lost ground for the first time in four sessions – 10’s back above 2% after setting new low yields on 2/4 on Greece: 10’s 2.03% -9/16 (1.64% low yield); 30’s 2.63% -1-5/32 (2.22% low); Long TIP 0.68% unchanged! (0.49% low!).

Gold managed another small gain with support at $1200 holding, closing at $1209.00 +$7.50, and has gone nowhere since l2/18’s $1197.80, lowest since 1/5 It peaked at $1307.80 on 1/22. $1130.40 is the current 12-month low! 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! RESISTANCE is the 50 day, $1230, the 40 day $1235, then the 200 day at $1250. The 12-month high is $1392.60 on 3/17/14, highest high since 9/4/13. Silver also closed higher at $16.54 +.08. The 200 day ($18.32) is resistance with res at the 50 day, $16.80, and the 40 day, $16.87. $14.12 is the recent low (12/1/14), first time in more than five years!

Crude once again gave up its gains closing at $48.94 -$2.05 – would someone please tell the guys at the pump who keep charging more? 2/18’s $47.36 was lowest since 2/5, negating the Greece rally. 1/28’s low was $44.08, lowest since 3/09. $50-52 is again resistance. 12/17’s high was $58.98. Consider: 10/25/14’s high was $84.83. There have been 64!!! handles since peaking at $107.73 on June 13th, highest since 9/19/13, and it is off 59% since then! The record high of $147.27 was on 9/30/08. Res is again the 40 day ($49.91), with support at the 50 day ($50.52), and major res at the 200 day ($82.84). The range is $43.58-$112.24 since 3/1/12. Note that following the financial crisis it traded down to $32.40 on 12/31/08 from a high of $147.27 just three months earlier (-78%!!!). Recall TB’s prediction of a bounce at $43.83? WILL it test that $32.40 March ’09 low?…by the way, the decline from the 9/20/08 high to the low took EXACTLY 6 months – we are now in the 9th month of decline!!!

Enjoy your weekend…just have to summarize todays markets and TB is done! At least for the forseeable future. Simply too much work without Bloomberg!

TB

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2/26/15…say it ‘is so’, Janet…or it isn’t, but say something!

Keep calm and carry on…by drinking wine! TB

Note the new format…after more than ten years and more than 1,650 posts, a change has been caused due to the loss of Bloomberg (a terminal costs over $30,000 a year – one terminal…now you know why Mike Bloomberg is so wealthy and can waste time as mayor of NYC (joke). TB is going to summarize Friday’s markets using WSJ data but it will be impossible to provide accurate overnight markets. Also, will continue to provide ytd index returns but they will only be approximations…close, but not accurate.

He will continue posting for the rest of the week (monthend), before leaving for Spain for three weeks to work on his wine blog/book (www.traderbillonwine.com)

Thanks for following the blog…

TB

Wednesday’s Market Summary:

This is simply too boring for words…just when they got the S&P VIX almost into bullish territory…almost! Volume only slightly higher at 3.3B shares and still weak. The goat was Dow Utilities -1.6% vs +0.7% vs +0.7%! All of the rest ranged from -0.5% (Dow Transports) to +0.1% (Dow 30/Russell 2000), that’s all you need to know.

A/D’s and Breadth were barely positive…by rounding up they got to +1.2x every one, while new highs climbed back to a 301 vs 261 vs 312; new lows did likewise falling back to 52 from 68 from a weak 45. The S&P VIX rose slightly – is this a case of thus far and no farther, if so, bad news for bulls, closing at 13.81 +.12, back above the average now so could be considered in bull territory – barely. But what is confirming that? Not the indices OR the volume!

The ytd scoreboard remains volatile (can’t recall ever seeing it this much before): Dow 30 +2.3%; Dow Transports -0.1%.; Dow Utilities -3.1%; S&P 500 -1.6%; Nasdaq Comp +5.0%; NDQ 100 +4.7%; Russell 2000 +2.3%. NYSE Financials -0.3%: KBW Banks -2%; Nasdaq Banks -2.1%.

Total NYSE Volume edged higher but remains weak at 3.3B shares vs 3.19B vs 3.05B, the 2nd lowest of 2015, vs 3.27B shares vs 3.2B – ytd low is 2.7B on Jan. 2; while 12/24’s 1.4B shares is the 12-month low. Shares traded on the NYSE floor are no longer available – 646M is the ytd low while 12/24’s 349M is the 12-month low…average is 745M shares! Since 1/5 the average is 846M shares and steadily declining! The Dec. average peaked at 979M shares on Dec. 22nd.

Advance/Declines were barely positive – all were rounded up: NYSE: +1.2x vs +1.6x vs 1:1 vs +2.1x vs -1.1x; Nasdaq +1.2x vs +1.4x vs -1.3x vs +1.1x vs +1.1x. Breadth was similar: NYSE+1.2x vs +1.6x vs -1.8x vs +2.1x vs -1.5x; Nasdaq +1.2x vs +1.1x vs -1.1x vs +1.7x vs +1.2x vs +1.1x. New 52 Week Highs climbed back to 301 vs 261 vs 312 vs 315 vs 290 vs 238 vs 297 vs 346 – their range for the last 12 mos. is 39-612!!! New Lows slipped again to 41 vs 52 vs 68 from a WEAK 45 vs 45 – 2015 high is 386 (12/16’s high was 712!!!) The 12-month range is 24-1043!!! S&P VIX regained some of Tuesdays bullish decline, closing at 13.81 +.12, Tuesday was the lowest (most bullish) since 12/26, and below the 200 day (14.65). The recent high is 12/16’s 25.20, second only to 10/17’s (31.06!) – highest since 11/2/11!!! Average of the past 12 months is 14.61, with a low of 10.28!…high close was 26.25 on 10/15/14!

U.S. Bond Market rallied for a 3rd day. Who’s afraid of the big bad Fed? Not me! Now FOUR straight ‘up’ days in the past 13 sessions since setting new low yields on 2/4 on Greece: 10’s 1.97% +1/2 (1.64% low yield); 30’s 2.57% +9/16 (2.22% low); Long TIP 0.68% +11/16 (0.49% low!).

Gold managed a small gain but remains stymied around $1200, closing at $1204.30 +$7.00, and has gone nowhere since last Wednesday’s $1197.80, lowest since 1/5 It peaked at $1307.80 on 1/22. $1130.40 is the current 12-month low! 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! RESISTANCE is the 50 day, $1230, the 40 day $1235, then the 200 day at $1250. The 12-month high is $1392.60 on 3/17/14, highest high since 9/4/13. Silver closed higher at $16.26 +.26. The 200 day ($18.32) is resistance with res at the 50 day, $16.80, and the 40 day, $16.87. $14.12 is the recent low (12/1/14), first time in more than five years!

Crude was lifeless again but did manage to close at took another hit closing at $51.13 +$1.85. This after plummeting to $47.36 last Wednesday, lowest since 2/5, negating the Greece rally. 1/28’s low was $44.08, lowest since 3/09. $50-52 is again resistance. 12/17’s high was $58.98. Consider: 10/25/14’s high was $84.83. There have been 64!!! handles since peaking at $107.73 on June 13th, highest since 9/19/13, and it is off 59% since then! The record high of $147.27 was on 9/30/08. Res is again the 40 day ($49.91), with support at the 50 day ($50.52), and major res at the 200 day ($82.84). The range is $43.58-$112.24 since 3/1/12. Note that following the financial crisis it traded down to $32.40 on 12/31/08 from a high of $147.27 just three months earlier (-78%!!!). Recall TB’s prediction of a bounce at $43.83? WILL it test that $32.40 March ’09 low?…by the way, the decline from the 9/20/08 high to the low took EXACTLY 6 months – we are now in the 9th month of decline!!!

Have a great day…just have to write this for one more day! Life without Bloomberg is hell!

TB

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2/25/15…directionless market…

Keep calm and carry on…by drinking wine! TB

Note the new format…after more than ten years and more than 1,650 posts, a change has been caused due to the loss of Bloomberg (a terminal costs over $30,000 a year – one terminal…now you know why Mike Bloomberg is so wealthy and can waste time as mayor of NYC (joke). TB is going to summarize Friday’s markets using WSJ data but it will be impossible to provide accurate overnight markets. Also, will continue to provide ytd index returns but they will only be approximations…close, but not accurate.

He will continue posting for the rest of the week (monthend), before leaving for Spain for three weeks to work on his wine blog/book (www.traderbillonwine.com)

Thanks for following the blog…

TB

Tuesday’s Market Summary:

Just another low volume session totaling 3.19B shares up from 3.05B shares, second only to Jan. 2nd’s 2.7B 2015 low! That is simply pathetic for the end of February and means that the markets are at the ‘mercy’ (?) of the flash traders. I know, I said this yesterday! ‘Bears’ repeating!

For a 2nd straight session the best performer was Dow Utilities +0.7% vs +0.7% – just when you wrote them off! All of the rest ranged from flat (NDQ 100) to +0.5% (Dow 30), that’s all you need to know.

A/D’s and Breadth were modestly positive, while new highs fell back to a weak 261 vs 312; new lows did likewise falling back to 52 from 68 from a weak 45. The S&P VIX declined again to 13.36 -0.87, below the average now so could be considered in bull territory – barely. But what is confirming that? Not the indices OR the volume!

The ytd scoreboard remains volatile (can’t recall ever seeing it this much before): Dow 30 +2.2%; Dow Transports +0.4%.; Dow Utilities -1.5%; S&P 500 -1.5%; Nasdaq Comp +5.0%; NDQ 100 +4.9%; Russell 2000 +2.2%. NYSE Financials -0.2%: KBW Banks -2%; Nasdaq Banks -1.9%.

Total NYSE Volume barely rose to a still weak 3.19B shares from 3.05B, the 2nd lowest of 2015, vs 3.27B shares vs 3.2B vs 3.34B vs 3.35B vs 3.52B – ytd low is 2.7B on Jan. 2; while 12/24’s 1.4B shares is the 12-month low. Shares traded on the NYSE floor are no longer available – 646M is the ytd low while 12/24’s 349M is the 12-month low…average is 745M shares! Since 1/5 the average is 846M shares and steadily declining! The Dec. average peaked at 979M shares on Dec. 22nd.

Advance/Declines were slightly positive: NYSE: +1.6x vs 1:1 vs +2.1x vs -1.1x vs +1.2x; Nasdaq +1.4x vs -1.3x vs +1.1x vs +1.1x vs +1.1x. Breadth was similar: NYSE+1.6x vs -1.8x vs +2.1x vs -1.5x vs +1:1; Nasdaq +1.1x vs -1.1x vs +1.7x vs +1.2x vs +1.1x. New 52 Week Highs fell to 261 vs 312 vs 315 vs 290 vs 238 vs 297 vs 346 – their range for the last 12 mos. is 39-612!!! New Lows also fell back to 52 vs 68 from a WEAK 45 vs 45 vs 45 – 2015 high is 386 (12/16’s high was 712!!!) The 12-month range is 24-1043!!! S&P VIX declined to 13.69 -.87, the lowest (most bullish) since 12/26, and below the 200 day (14.65). The recent high is 12/16’s 25.20, second only to 10/17’s (31.06!) – highest since 11/2/11!!! Average of the past 12 months is 14.61, with a low of 10.28!…high close was 26.25 on 10/15/14!

U.S. Bond Market rallied for a 2nd day. Now three ‘up’ days in the past 12 sessions since setting new low yields on 2/4 on Greece: 10’s 1.99% +5/8 (1.64% low yield); 30’s 2.60% +1-1/8 (2.22% low); Long TIP 0.70% +1-1/2 (0.49% low!).

Gold continued to founder and has gone nowhere since last Wednesday’s $1197.80, lowest since 1/5, closing at $1199.80 -$1.00 It peaked at $1307.80 on 1/22. $1130.40 is the current 12-month low! 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! RESISTANCE is the 50 day, $1230, the 40 day $1235, then the 200 day at $1250. The 12-month high is $1392.60 on 3/17/14, highest high since 9/4/13. Silver also closed lower at $16.26 -.11. The 200 day ($18.32) is resistance with res at the 50 day, $16.80, and the 40 day, $16.87. $14.12 is the recent low (12/1/14), first time in more than five years!

Crude took another hit closing at $49.08 -.37. This after plummeting to $47.36 last Wednesday, lowest since 2/5, negating the Greece rally. 1/28’s low was $44.08, lowest since 3/09. $50-52 is again resistance. 12/17’s high was $58.98. Consider: 10/25/14’s high was $84.83. There have been 64!!! handles since peaking at $107.73 on June 13th, highest since 9/19/13, and it is off 59% since then! The record high of $147.27 was on 9/30/08. Res is again the 40 day ($49.91), with support at the 50 day ($50.52), and major res at the 200 day ($82.84). The range is $43.58-$112.24 since 3/1/12. Note that following the financial crisis it traded down to $32.40 on 12/31/08 from a high of $147.27 just three months earlier (-78%!!!). Recall TB’s prediction of a bounce at $43.83? WILL it test that $32.40 March ’09 low?…by the way, the decline from the 9/20/08 high to the low took EXACTLY 6 months – we are now in the 9th month of decline!!!

Have a great day…just have to write this for two more days! Life without Bloomberg is hell!

 

TB

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2/24/15…a funny thing happened on the way to the market close!

Keep calm and carry on…by drinking wine! TB

Note the new format…after more than ten years and more than 1,650 posts, a change has been caused due to the loss of Bloomberg (a terminal costs over $30,000 a year – one terminal…now you know why Mike Bloomberg is so wealthy and can waste time as mayor of NYC (joke). TB is going to summarize Friday’s markets using WSJ data but it will be impossible to provide accurate overnight markets. Also, will continue to provide ytd index returns but they will only be approximations…close, but not accurate. (Somebody get TB Bloomberg access and a little pay and he will continue writing!)

He will continue posting for the rest of the week (monthend), before leaving for Spain for three weeks to work on his wine blog/book (www.traderbillonwine.com)

Thanks for following the blog…

TB

Monday’s Market Summary:

As if things weren’t confusing enough, Monday was a mixed day and volume dropped to 3.05B shares, second only to Jan. 2nd’s 2.7B 2015 low! That is simply pathetic for the end of February and means that the markets are at the ‘mercy’ (?) of the flash traders. For example, TB tried to sell just 300 shares of a major bank stock yesterday. As always he uses limits, in this case the bid side of the market. As soon as the bid was entered the screen dropped to below his bid…changed it and this happened three times in less than five minutes! Pulled the bid and it went back up…that folks is what flash trading does to a market…turns it into a casino where they are the house! You cannot win. Played with it for about 20 minutes and finally got the price I wanted, but for 300 shares? Bring back the specialists…and call in the useless SEC!

What was the best performer yesterday? Dow Utilities +0.7% – just when you wrote them off! All of the rest ranged from -0.1% (Dow 30) to +0.1% (both Nasdaqs and Transports), with both S&P 500 and Russell 2000 FLAT! NYSE Financials gave back 0.5%, thanks mainly to KBW Banks which also lost 0.5%.

A/D’s and Breadth were slightly negative, while new highs were steady at a solid 312, but new lows rose to 68 from a weak 45. The S&P VIX declined to 14.30 -0.99, and getting close to neutral but certainly not bullish considering expiry and the low volume.

The ytd scoreboard remains volatile (can’t recall ever seeing it this much before): Dow 30 +1.7%; Dow Transports –; Dow Utilities -2.2%!!! S&P 500 +2.5%; Nasdaq Comp +4.7%; NDQ 100 +4.8%; Russell 2000 +2.2%. NYSE Financials -0.4%: KBW Banks -3%; Nasdaq Banks -2.5%.

Total NYSE Volume barely rose despite options expiration from the 2nd lowest of 2015 to 3.27B shares vs 3.2B shares vs 3.34B vs 3.35B vs 3.52B – ytd low is 2.7B on Jan. 2; while 12/24’s 1.4B shares is the 12-month low. Shares traded on the NYSE floor unavailable vs 693M shares with just 583M at the closing bell vs 730M vs 780m vs 760M vs 803M – 1.22B on 1/30 is highest since 8/8/11!!! – 646M is the ytd low while 12/24’s 349M is the 12-month low…average is 745M shares! Since 1/5 the average is 846M shares and steadily declining! The Dec. average peaked at 979M shares on Dec. 22nd.

Advance/Declines were slightly negative: NYSE: 1:1 vs +2.1x vs -1.1x vs +1.2x vs -1.3x vs +1.7x vs +3.3x! Nasdaq -1.3x vs +1.1x vs +1.1x vs +1.1x vs +1.3x. Breadth was similar: NYSE -1.8x vs +2.1x vs -1.5x vs +1:1 vs +1.3x; Nasdaq -1.1x vs +1.7x vs +1.2x vs +1.1x vs +2x. New 52 Week Highs steady at 312 vs 315 vs 290 vs 238 vs 297 vs 346 – their range for the last 12 mos. is 39-612!!! New Lows finally picked up to 68 from a WEAK 45 vs 45 vs 45 vs 39 vs 41 vs 37 – 2015 high is 386 (12/16’s high was 712!!!) The 12-month range is 24-1043!!! S&P VIX rose for the first time in four sessions from a near neutral 14.30 lowest since 12/26, to 14.56 +.28 and almost back to the 200 day (14.65). The recent high is 12/16’s 25.20, second only to 10/17’s (31.06!) – highest since 11/2/11!!! Average of the past 12 months is 14.61, with a low of 10.28!…high close was 26.25 on 10/15/14!

U.S. Bond Market woke up, finally. Just two ‘up’ days in the past 11 sessions since setting new low yields on 2/4 on Greece: 10’s 2.06% +9/16 (1.64% low yield); 30’s 2.65% +1-11/16 (2.22% low); Long TIP 0.75% +1-3/4 (0.49% low!).

Gold continued to founder and has gone nowhere since last Wednesday’s $1197.80, lowest since 1/5, closing at $1202.20 -$2.70 It peaked at $1307.80 on 1/22. $1130.40 is the current 12-month low! 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! RESISTANCE is the 50 day, $1230, the 40 day $1235, then the 200 day at $1250. The 12-month high is $1392.60 on 3/17/14, highest high since 9/4/13. Silver also closed lower at $16.26 -.11. The 200 day ($18.32) is resistance with res at the 50 day, $16.80, and the 40 day, $16.87. $14.12 is the recent low (12/1/14), first time in more than five years!

Crude took another hit closing at $49.36 -$1.45! This after plummeting to $47.36 last Wednesday, lowest since 2/5, negating the Greece rally. 1/28’s low was $44.08, lowest since 3/09. $50-52 is again resistance. 12/17’s high was $58.98. Consider: 10/25/14’s high was $84.83. There have been 64!!! handles since peaking at $107.73 on June 13th, highest since 9/19/13, and it is off 59% since then! The record high of $147.27 was on 9/30/08. Res is again the 40 day ($49.91), with support at the 50 day ($50.52), and major res at the 200 day ($82.84). The range is $43.58-$112.24 since 3/1/12. Note that following the financial crisis it traded down to $32.40 on 12/31/08 from a high of $147.27 just three months earlier (-78%!!!). Recall TB’s prediction of a bounce at $43.83? WILL it test that $32.40 March ’09 low?…by the way, the decline from the 9/20/08 high to the low took EXACTLY 6 months – we are now in the 9th month of decline!!!

Have a great day…just have to write this for three more days! Life without Bloomberg is hell!

TB

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2/23/15…end of an era?

Keep calm and carry on…by drinking wine! TB

Note the new format…after more than ten years and more than 1,650 posts, a change has been caused due to the loss of Bloomberg (a terminal costs over $30,000 a year – one terminal…now you know why Mike Bloomberg is so wealthy and can waste time as mayor of NYC (joke). TB is going to summarize Friday’s markets using WSJ data but it will be impossible to provide accurate overnight markets. Also, will continue to provide ytd index returns but they will only be approximations…close, but not accurate.

Thanks for following the blog…

TB

This week’s economic calendar is full of important indicators. The highlight of the week will be the January CPI (Thursday) and Q4 GDP 2nd Estimate (Friday). We will also get January Existing Home Sales, February Dallas Fed Manufacturing (Monday), December Case-Shiller Home Prices, February Consumer Confidence and February Richmond Fed Manufacturing (Tuesday), January New Home Sales (Wednesday) and January Durables Goods Orders (Thursday), February Chicago PMI and February Consumer Sentiment Final (Friday).

Courtesy of Economic Advisory Service

Friday’s Market Summary:

Talk about a non-event options expiration. While all indices closed up – get this Dow 30 +0.9%, Russell 2000 +0.3%; Dow Utilities flat, the rest all up 0.6% – and that should give you pause…all up exactly the same amount. Perhaps you believe in coincidences – not TB! Total Volume was incredibly light for an expiry at 3.27B shares, compared to Thursday’s pathetic 3.2B shares. Cannot provide shares traded on the floor but consider it also light – translation: absence of retail! A/D’s and Breadth were ho-hum. New 52 week highs rose to 315 while new lows were stable at 45. The S&P VIX declined to 14.30 -0.99, and getting close to neutral but certainly not bullish considering expiry and the low volume.

The ytd scoreboard remains volatile (can’t recall ever seeing it this much before): Dow 30 +1.8%; Dow Transports -0.1%; Dow Utilities -2.9%!!! S&P 500 +2.5%; Nasdaq Comp +4.6%; NDQ 100 +4.7%; Russell 2000 +2.2%. NYSE Financials +0.1%: KBW Banks -2.5%; Nasdaq Banks -2.3%.

 

Total NYSE Volume barely rose despite options expiration from the 2nd lowest of 2015 to 3.27B shares vs 3.2B shares vs 3.34B vs 3.35B vs 3.52B – ytd low is 2.7B on Jan. 2; while 12/24’s 1.4B shares is the 12-month low. Shares traded on the NYSE floor unavailable vs 693M shares with just 583M at the closing bell vs 730M vs 780m vs 760M vs 803M – 1.22B on 1/30 is highest since 8/8/11!!! – 646M is the ytd low while 12/24’s 349M is the 12-month low…average is 745M shares! Since 1/5 the average is 846M shares and steadily declining! The Dec. average peaked at 979M shares on Dec. 22nd.

Advance/Declines were slightly positive: NYSE: +2.1x vs -1.1x vs +1.2x vs -1.3x vs +1.7x vs +3.3x! Nasdaq +1.1x vs +1.1x vs +1.1x vs +1.3x vs +1.8x. Breadth was similar: NYSE +2.1x vs -1.5x vs +1:1 vs +1.3x vs +1.9x vs +5x!!! Nasdaq +1.7x vs +1.2x vs +1.1x vs +2x vs +2x. New 52 Week Highs rose to 315 vs 290 vs 238 vs 297 vs 346 – their range for the last 12 mos. is 39-612!!! New Lows stable at a WEAK 45 vs 45 vs 45 vs 39 vs 41 vs 37 – 2015 high is 386 (12/16’s high was 712!!!) The 12-month range is 24-1043!!! S&P VIX lower again at a near neutral 14.30 -.99, lowest since 12/26, and back below the 200 day (14.65). The recent high is 12/16’s 25.20, second only to 10/17’s (31.06!) – highest since 11/2/11!!! Average of the past 12 months is 14.61, with a low of 10.28!…high close was 26.25 on 10/15/14!

U.S. Bond Market weaker again. Just one ‘up’ day in the past 10 sessions since setting new low yields on 2/4 on Greece: 10’s 2.13% -5/8 (1.64% low yield); 30’s 2.74% -3/16 (2.22% low); Long TIP 0.83% 1/8 (0.49% low!).

Gold did nothing and hasn’t since Wednesday’s $1197.80, lowest since 1/5, closing at $1204.40 -$2.70 It peaked at $1307.80 on 1/22. $1130.40 is the current 12-month low! 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! RESISTANCE is the 50 day, $1230, the 40 day $1235, then the 200 day at $1250. The 12-month high is $1392.60 on 3/17/14, highest high since 9/4/13. Silver also closed lower at $16.26 -.11. The 200 day ($18.32) is resistance with res at the 50 day, $16.80, and the 40 day, $16.87. $14.12 is the recent low (12/1/14), first time in more than five years!

Crude traded quietly closing at $50.34 -.82. This after plummeting to $47.36 last Wednesday, lowest since 2/5, negating the Greece rally. 1/28’s low was $44.08, lowest since 3/09. $50-52 is again resistance. 12/17’s high was $58.98. Consider: 10/25/14’s high was $84.83. There have been 64!!! handles since peaking at $107.73 on June 13th, highest since 9/19/13, and it is off 59% since then! The record high of $147.27 was on 9/30/08. Res is again the 50 day ($51.62), with support at the 40 day ($49.91), and major res at the 200 day ($82.84). The range is $43.58-$112.24 since 3/1/12. Note that following the financial crisis it traded down to $32.40 on 12/31/08 from a high of $147.27 just three months earlier (-78%!!!). Recall TB’s prediction of a bounce at $43.83? WILL it test that $32.40 March ’09 low?…by the way, the decline from the 9/20/08 high to the low took EXACTLY 6 months – we are now in the 9th month of decline!!!

Have a great day…don’t know how much longer I can do this…not easy! At least it will save some trees!

TB

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2/20/15…grand ole ‘expiry’ part XXX

TB’s Quote of the Day: “If the members of Congress weren’t milionaires – at least – they might be in favor of raising taxes on the wealthiest…especially since they only come out of there richer!

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Whatever you do in life, surround yourself with smart people who’ll argue with you.” – John Wooden – who says???

Overnight Global Markets:

European equity markets lower, this time ex-UK, Asia higher, ex-India, Chinese New Year continues: UK +0.3% vs -0.1% vs -0.3% vs +0.5% vs +0.6%; France -0.8% vs +0.5% vs +0.7% vs +0.3% vs +0.7%; Germany – vs +0.1% vs +0.4% vs -0.1% vs +0.6%; Japan +0.4% vs +0.4% vs +1.2% vs -0.1% vs -0.4%; Hang Seng still closed for Chinese New Year – Gung Hay Fat Choy vs +0.2% vs +0.2% vs +1.1%! Korea also closed for a 3rd day vs +0.2% vs +0.8%; India -0.8% vs +0.5% vs +0.6% vs closed vs +1% vs +1%. U.S. equity futures lower: DOW -28 (range 77); SPX -4.50 (9) NDQ -2.50 (27).

Global Money Markets: Libor: 0.260% 3 mos; 0.385%; 6 mos – both at 2015 highs but still not far off their recent record lows! The Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% and is now 0.12-0.14% – 0.14% is the 9-month high! T-Bills: 0.01%, 1 mo; 0.02%, 3 mos; 0.06% 6 mos; 0.20% 1-yr – 0.25% is the 12-month high! A trader would go insane!

U.S. Treasury Bonds are…rallying??? Options expiry!!! Watch closely today! 10’s 2.08% +5/16; 30’s 2.71% +9/16; Long TIP: 0.78% +15/16. Let us (continue to) pray!

European Bond yields mixed but evn e the losers are only slightly higher: Germany 0.35%! -3; UK 1.78% -4; France 0.67% -3; Italy 1.61% -2; Spain 1.52% -2; Portugal 2.23% -1; Greece 9.61% -3 Volatile!!! Recent range is: 7.03% to 10.98%!!! – cycle low: 5.42%; Crisis high: 12.57%. Japan: 0.37% -1; low is 0.19%!

Dollar Index slightly higher for a second day, currently 94.65 +.26. Recent low is 93.25 on 2/3. 1/26’s 95.527 was highest since 9/30/03! Euro slightly weaker at 1.1307 -.009, 1.1279 session low! 1/26’s 1.1098 – an 11-year low!!! Sterling 1.5384 -.006. Friday’s high was 1.5440. Bottomed out 1/26 at $1.4952, with critical support at $1.48, a double-bottom from 3/29-31/2013! Yen trying to recover at 118.49 -0.40, after trading to 120.48 on 2/12! 1/15’s 115.86 was best since 12/17/14’s 115.57 – weak since peak Oct. ’14: 105.23; recent best 2/4/14 @ 100.76!!! Record: 12/30/11: 75.35!!!

Commodities: Gold trading in a narrow range after Thursday’s minor bounce and is now $1212.20 +$4.60 with support at $1203. Wednesday’s low was $1197.80! The 50 day ($1230) is now first resistance. Silver is DIW at $16.41 +.03. Wednesday’s low was $16.23. Crude trying to come back but feebly and is now $51.62 +.46, with res at the 50 day $51.62, and support at the 40 day $49.91. 2/11’s low was $47.36, lowest since 2/5.

Thursday’s Market Summary:

Two words: ‘options expiration’ today! Perhaps that will put an end to this madness. As Rod Serling would say,“There is a fifth dimension beyond that which is known to man. It is a dimension as vast as space and as timeless as infinity. It is the middle ground between light and shadow, between science and superstition, and it lies between the pit of man’s fears and the summit of his knowledge. This is the dimension of imagination. It is an area which we call the stock market!!!” Alternatively he might have said, “You are about to enter another dimension, a dimension not only of sight and sound but of mind. A journey into a wondrous land of imagination. Next stop, the Stock Market!” Therein lies all you need to know to make sense(?) of the markets…

A mixed session with both Nasdaq’s UP 0.4%, Russell 2000 flat, Dow 30, Transports and S&P 500 all off about 0.2%. Dow Utilities which have been suffering were down 1.1% subtracting from Wednesday’s 2.2% gain and well in the red ytd. A/D’s and Breadth were minor and mixed with NYSE faring the worse. The S&P VIX traded in a lower range of 15.10-16.22, slightly narrower than Wednesday. New 52 week highs rose but remain weak while new lows remain stuck – that could end with today’s expiration!

The ytd scoreboard remains volatile (can’t recall ever seeing it this much before): Dow 30 +0.9%; Dow Transports -0.7%; Dow Utilities -2.9%!!! S&P 500 +1.9%; Nasdaq Comp +4.0%; NDQ 100 +4.1%; Russell 2000 +1.9%. NYSE Financials -0.8%: KBW Banks -3.4%; Nasdaq Banks -2.8%. Philly Gold/Silver +8.6%.

Total NYSE Volume slid again to 2nd lowest of 2015 3.2B shares vs 3.34B vs 3.35B vs 3.52B vs 3.78B – ytd low is 2.7B on Jan. 2; while 12/24’s 1.4B shares is the 12-month low. Shares traded on the NYSE floor fell to their lowest level since ½: 693M shares with just 583M at the closing bell vs 730M vs 780m vs 760M vs 803M – 1.22B on 1/30 is highest since 8/8/11!!! – 646M is the ytd low while 12/24’s 349M is the 12-month low…average is 745M shares! Since 1/5 the average is 846M shares and steadily declining! The Dec. average peaked at 979M shares on Dec. 22nd.

Advance/Declines were slightly negative on NYSE and barely positive on Nasdaq: NYSE: -1.1x vs +1.2x vs -1.3x vs +1.7x vs +3.3x! Nasdaq +1.1x vs +1.1x vs +1.3x vs +1.8x vs +2.4x. Breadth was similar: NYSE -1.5x vs +1:1 vs +1.3x vs +1.9x vs +5x!!! Nasdaq +1.2x vs +1.1x vs +2x vs +2x vs +2.7x. New 52 Week Highs rose to 290 vs 238 vs 297 vs 346 vs 325 vs 186 vs 148 vs 108 – their range for the last 12 mos. is 39-612!!! New Lows stable at a WEAK 45 vs 45 vs 39 vs 41 vs 37 – 2015 high is 386 (12/16’s high was 712!!!) The 12-month range is 24-1043!!! S&P VIX slightly lower again but still bearish at 15.30 -.15, from Monday’s 1owest since 12/26, and back above the 200 day (14.65). Range: 15.44-16.74. The recent high is 12/16’s 25.20, second only to 10/17’s (31.06!) – highest since 11/2/11!!! Average of the past 12 months is 14.61, with a low of 10.28!…high close was 26.25 on 10/15/14!

U.S. Bond Market still can’t catch a bid. That’s one up day in the past 9 sessions since setting new low yields on 2/4 on Greece: 10’s 2.11% -5/16 (1.64% low yield); 30’s 2.74% -9/16 (2.22% low); Long TIP 0.82% +1/16 (0.49% low!).

Gold recovered somewhat from Wednesday’s $1197.80, lowest since 1/5, and closed at $1213.40 +$13.20. It peaked at $1307.80 on 1/22. $1130.40 is the current 12-month low! 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! RESISTANCE is the 50 day, $1230, the 40 day $1235, then the 200 day at $1250. The 12-month high is $1392.60 on 3/17/14, highest high since 9/4/13. Silver treaded water in a tight range with a high of $16.77 before closing at $16.37 -.10. The 200 day ($18.32) is resistance with res at the 50 day, $16.80, and the 40 day, $16.87. $14.12 is the recent low (12/1/14), first time in more than five years!

Crude sold off again but it wasn’t the magnitude but the low that was significant: $49.15! It finally closed at $51.06 -.98. This after plummeting to $47.36 last Wednesday, lowest since 2/5, negating the Greece rally. 1/28’s low was $44.08, lowest since 3/09. $50-52 is again resistance. 12/17’s high was $58.98. Consider: 10/25/14’s high was $84.83. There have been 64!!! handles since peaking at $107.73 on June 13th, highest since 9/19/13, and it is off 59% since then! The record high of $147.27 was on 9/30/08. Res is again the 50 day ($51.62), with support at the 40 day ($49.91), and major res at the 200 day ($82.84). The range is $43.58-$112.24 since 3/1/12. Note that following the financial crisis it traded down to $32.40 on 12/31/08 from a high of $147.27 just three months earlier (-78%!!!). Recall TB’s prediction of a bounce at $43.83? WILL it test that $32.40 March ’09 low?…by the way, the decline from the 9/20/08 high to the low took EXACTLY 6 months – we are now in the 9th month of decline!!!

For a four day week it was one wild ride…right Mr. Toad? Hold on to your hats and money today for options expiration, then get out of here!!! Enjoy the weekend!

TB

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