Posts Tagged Rudy Giuliani

Trump the bully

Integrity without knowledge is weak and useless, and knowledge without integrity is dangerous and dreadful.
– Samuel Johnson

…what if they have neither…only bluster and cunning?

I may not be able to do anything but it is better to try to do something than to see ones’ country torn apart. Here are a few of my concerns starting back during the campaign:

  • “Crooked Hillary” and “Send her to jail” – is that what responsible people do in an attempt…and it was successful..to win…but the country’s highest office???
  • “I know more about ISIS than any of the generals, I am the only one that can destroy them.” – That alone should have told you to run! Elect Mickey Mouse, anyone but…
  • “She has used her office to collect money for her foundation.” – patently false! Yes, contributions provided access but that is what every politician does – in any country! Add to that, her foundation even with its size has been shown to do good both nationally and internationally. What has Trump’s done…besides self-dealing? A sham! He is going to be fined for using foundation funds to pay HIS fines, purchase a portrait of himself (do I need to even comment on that one), is under investigation on the self-dealing which the foundation has admitted to. Contrast to the Clinton Foundation, because they are scrupulous about paying their taxes and not taking advantage of anything that could be questioned…with good reason.
  • “I will release my taxes at the proper time.” – well, Donald,it is long past that time and you should do it before the electoral college meets on Dec. 19th!
  • ‘nuf said about Trump Enterprises, letting his kids run it and saying that is sufficient. Not for a world leader…of the free world at any rate.
  • Challenging the credibility of our electoral system, which has been used as a model for countries around the world establishing democratic governments. It makes us look like hypocrites…which we are and always have been on democracy.
  • He, Rudy Giuliani, and Kellyanne Conway, all calling protestors ‘cry babies’ and not denouncing the protests quickly enough…include Obama on this. Cry babies who won in their states and feel they have been robbed.
  • Criticizing Jill Stein and the Clinton campaign for seeking recounts in at least three states: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania…Florida could be next. Consider, Stein raised less than $4 million for her campaign but has received over $6 million for recounts. Trump is furious…as he so often is with that hair trigger brain of his. But wait…he was screaming widespread voter fraud and his ego, despite winning the electoral college (so far that is), cannot bear the fact that he lost the popular (sic) vote by more than 2 million votes! If that is the case, he should prove it, of course he has shown, and facts have shown there is miniscule if any, voter fraud. How could it be done on such a grand scale. Would 2 million people risk going to jail? Thus far there has only been one incident reported: a woman who voted twice…for Trump!
  • “I would have had more votes if I had campaigned in California and a few other states” – so? Clinton would have also had she used his strategy. What’s your point?

The people he has surrounded himself with before (two crime families, which somehow wasn’t picked up by the New Jersey Gaming Board, nor was he required to testify before the board as is required by law…but hey, it’s New Jersey, right Chris? Here are a few: Bannon, the chameleon Giuliani, using Hannity of FOX News as a foil, along with Kellyanne before she resigned to run his campaign (wait I thought it was the liberal media that was the problem…FOX with the worst credibility rating of any news (sic) network for mixing opinion with fact. Worse he had not denounced neo-Nazi’s, the KKK, or any fringe group out to destroy the fabric of our nation. A case in point, Richard Spencer, head of the ‘alt-right’ movement (translation: American Neo-Nazi Party), who held a victory rally  for Trump, using the phrase: “Hail Trump, Hail America” (white that is), giving a Nazi salute which many in the audience eagerly gave. Note his comb over, a replica of Hitler’s. We cannot let this stand!

There you have it, a few of the reasons we cannot allow Trump to be president. Keep on going, Donald, and the electoral college might just hand you a stunning defeat. It is critical with our checks and balances destroyed by the prevalence of the GOP control in the House, Senate, gubernatorial states, state legislators, and the equal weighted Supreme Court about to be turned heavily to the extreme right…and while extreme liberal is communism, the opposite is fascism. Hail Trump…or should it be ‘heil’? TB is ‘seeking’ an answer.

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11/28/16…Kellyanne? You’re FIRED!!!

Not quite, but…

She made two cardinal sins on Sunday talk shows: first, she thought she knew

The Donald’s mind without checking in the last half hour (joke), but seriously, she claimed she had talked with him about the President-elect and he had no problems with her comments on him…hmmmm. Secondly, purportedly at least, The Donald is trying to ‘make nice’ because he knows he needs all the help he can get.

It didn’t take long for word to get out that Trump was pissed! Damn, if she leaves, is there anyone else he can grope or find attractive enough to? (“Donald, stop that…oh, okay…). That was not fair besides she is a mother of four and 49 years old…way to old for him. Note to Melania: at 46, you are on borrowed time, wheras he told Howard Stern, Ivanka was a “nice piece of ass” and at her optimum age of 35…at 45 they start walking. Good advice, no? Oops, Melania, remember when you were pregnant and he called you a “monster” and a “blimp”. Don’t worry, those are just his ‘pet’ names, right??? Right???

Word in D.C. is he is having problems filling 2nd and 3rd tier jobs…you know, the ones who do the heavy lifting, not just titular heads. Why on worth would you want to be in THAT cabinet? To save him from himself? That familiar “you’re fired!” could ring out loud and often but hey, when you’ve been elected dictator, who cares.

But this isn’t Trump Enterprises where there was no one to say that Trump Wine, and the infamous Trump U. were bad ideas…hence a misogynist, narcissist, with delusions of grandeur. But there is Congress and that honeymoon, even with his own party in control, could be very short, i.e. over before he even is sworn in?

Listen to Ted Cruz: during the battle he called him a ‘pathological liar’, no argument there because he never  backs down from a statement no matter how strong the proof. Another mark of a narcissist, because they never want to lose and his sister, the former appellate judge for New Jersey (appointed a federal judge by Reagan and to the appellate court by the evil Obama). Now he says it was ‘just in the heat of battle’. Hey, Ted, you might get that Supreme Court seat yet! Ah, but once there, in decisions he can say what he really thinks, IF he follows the Constitution, not the party.

Okay, I had some fun…factual fun, though. Now for my real thoughts (note that I voted for Clinton as the lesser of two evils since both parties let their constituents down): he has no moral compass, no compassion, cannot tell a lie…oops, truth, is crude, disgusting, and a pompous ass! He will destroy relations with our allies, and has already started by telling the Brits who their Ambassador to the U.S. should be…and he still has ‘elect’ after his title.

Ah, those poor people in manufacturing jobs and especially coal…you see, it is Obama’s regulations that are killing….killing I (he) say! Well, guess what, Donald? It’s called technology and alternative fuels (not alt, like alt-right), natural gas is an easy substitute for coal in power generation, and has fewer emissions. Oops, Donald, forgot that climate change is a hoax perpetuated by the Chinese. Well, hate to tell you this but solar and wind power are growing by leaps and bounds and if Congress would ever clamp down on auto industry think where we would be?

Oh, and you have truly pissed off the alt-right (neo-nazi’s, KKK, etc.) by not prosecuting Hillary, even though you have no power to try or not to try. If you think those election night and the next few days, protests were bad, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet…and that, Mr. Trump will be your bad!

But Mr. Trump, and I hope that President-elect is as far as you go (see last column on Dec. 19th and the electoral college, aka the 12th Amendment!). You have no credentials to be president: zero, zip, zilch, yet you continue to tell the American people how it’s gonna be.

You have cast doubt on our elections, the hallmark of any democracy, by making insane comments before the election about voter fraud, and saying you will keep us in suspense whether you will challenge the election…but not if you win.

Well, guess what Donald? You are winning, and as Judge Judy tells people who are winning: shut up! You can only hurt yourself. Yet because Clinton shows a 2 million vote lead in the ‘meaningless’ popular vote and is joining Jill Stein in a possible recount of three states, you just can’t help yourself. Now you are screaming…literally, the millions of voters were illegal. That is tantamount to treason because you are once again challenging the very backbone of America and democracy that we have preached to other nations. Also, you, Rudy Giuliani, and Kellyanne should shut up about people who backed Hillary being “cry babies”, telling Clinton and Obama to stop the protests, yet you claimed to be unaware of any alt-right hate crimes that have escalated after the election and when she pressed YOU to do something, you said, in a monotone that lacked conviction: “stop it now.” Yes, daddy!

Well, I guess I’ve got it off my chest now but i am speaking as an American, not a Republican, Democrat, etc. but as someone who thanks to you has lost all faith in our political parties…perhaps that is your rationale for becoming Dictator-in-Chef.

A disgusted TB.

 

 

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12/8/14…’tis the season…

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “I’d lie to come back (to life) as an oyster. Then I’d only have to be good from September to April.” – Gracie Allen

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “You cannot depend on your eyes when your imagination is out of focus.” – Mark Twain

This week’s economic calendar is fairly light. The highlight of the week will be the November Retail Sales (Thursday) and November PPI (Friday). We will also get October Wholesale Trade and October JOLTs Job Openings (Tuesday), November Treasury Budget (Wednesday), November Import & Export Prices, October Business Inventories (Thursday) and December Consumer Sentiment Preliminary (Friday). Courtesy of Economic Data Service

Bloomberg Top Stories:
*Oil Extends Retreat With European Stocks, Russian Bonds as Dollar Rallies – same old
*One Hundred Years of Bond History Explains Why Bears Destined to Be Wrong
*Russian Bond Yields Rise to Five-Year High on Interest-Rate Increase Bets
*McDonald’s Monthly Worldwide Sales Trail Estimates as U.S. Slump Deepens
*Hedge Funds Betting That OPEC-Led Rout in Crude-Oil Prices Is Nearing End
*Brazil Recovery May Hinge on Decisions Rousseff Makes Early in Next Term
*Energy Insiders Seeing ‘Fire Sale’ Buy Shares at Fastest Rate Since 2012 – too early?
*Older Americans Buoy Housing Market With Highest Ownership Rate – can afford too!
*Putin’s Ruble Collapse Is Tale of Failed Threats, Missteps and Cash Blown – pariah?
*Mexican Oil Rig Bond Rout Unjustified as Pemex Contracts Unaffected
*Putin New Deal for Russia Means end to 15 Years of Rising Living Standards – sad!

Friday’s Market Summary
A very mixed session Friday following a payrolls report that was strong on jobs, yet continues weak on earnings (CEO’s and senior management excepted). Workweek was only slightly better. At the end of the day (sorry), The winner was the Russell 2000 small cap +0.8% vs -0.5%, the goat was Dow Transports -0.9%. Dow 30 +0.3%, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite +0.2%; NDQ 100 FLAT??? (Note: NYSE Financials +0.7%: Brokers +1.6%??? KBW Banks +1.9%???Nasdaq Banks +1.7%???). Volume was nearly identical to Thursday at 3.36B shares (below recent average of 3.6B), but REAL Volume was above average at 755M shares. A/D’s and Breadth were neutral on NYSE and positive on Nasdaq. The VIX however fell to 11.82??? with a less bearish (slightly bullish?) range of 11.53-12.28???

Total NYSE Volume was steady at a below average 3.36B sjares vs 3.37B vs 3.58B vs 3.64B vs 4.14B. Average volume since 9/30 is about 3.6B shares or about 600M more than the 12-month average. Shares traded on the NYSE floor (aka REAL) were slightly lower at 755M shares vs 798M vs 776M vs 809M vs 877M (is that a trend?) vs 649M (lowest since 11/11 and unusual for a monthend). For comparison purposes, for the prior 12 months it is a historically weak 718M shares…but since 10/1: 815B shares – including that HUGE 1.22B share day – highest since 9/19, followed by two more 1B plus days leading to options expiry!. The lowest was 11/1’s 619M share session. April 30 – September 30 we had just SEVEN 800M shares…since 10/1: now at 19 – just one in Nov, and FIVE 900M+ days. Two 800M days for Dec.

A/D’s were neutral on the NYSE and positive on Nasdaq: NYSE: +1.1x vs -1.7x vs +1.8x vs +2x vs -3.5x; Nasdaq +1.9x vs +1.5x vs +1.6x vs +2.1x vs -3.5x. Breadth was similar: NYSE 1:1 vs -2.4x vs +2.4x vs +1.3x vs -3.8x!!! vs -2.4x; Nasdaq +1.6x vs -1.5x vs +2.2x vs +2.1x vs -4.7x!!! New 52 Week Highs climbed back to 363 vs 302 vs 328 vs 197 vs 201! vs 515! – their range for the year is 39-612!!! New Lows climbed again to a strong 283 vs 248 vs 185 vs 253 vs 447!!! The 2014 range is 24-1043!!! S&P VIX had another lower high and lower with a high of just 12.28 and a low of 11.53 before closing at 11.82 -.56! – leaving just one session without a ‘13’ print! This 10 days after hitting a very bearish 15.74, highest since 11/4, and just 4 days ago 14.75! We may again see those bearish extremes that had a high of 31.06 (highest since 11/28/11!!!). The average of the past 12 months is 13.97, with a low of 10.28!…high close of 26.25 on 10/15/14! TODAY is the closely watched payrolls report! Stay tuned.

U.S. bond market weaker but still in ‘good shape’ (watch to see if 30 yr goes to 3% or higher). The recent 12 month low yields (10’s 2.09%; 30’s 2.87%; and long TIP 0.83%), 10’s closed at 2.31% -5/8; 30’s 2.97% -5/8, and the long TIP 0.97% -11/16. Overnight slightly higher: 10’s 2.30% +1/32; 30’s 2.96% +3/16; and long TIP 0.96% +1/8.
Libor update: 0.236% 3 mos.; 0.330% 6 mos. – still near their new record lows! The Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% and is currently 0.11-0.13% – a 9-month high. T-Bills: 0.02% one-month; 0.01%! 3 mos; 0.14% (+.02!) one year.
Foreign bond yields lower – Japan, and Greece a tad higher but from 7.00%! (Benchmark is 10yr): Germany 0.72% -6!; UK 1.99%! -2; France 0.98%! -5!!!; Italy 1.96% -1; Spain 1.79%! -3; Portugal 2.70%! -3; Greece 7.03%! +3. This vs 07.47% last Thursday??? – WOW! Not for the faint of heart! 10/16’s close was 8.54%! – cycle low: 5.42%; Crisis high: 12.57%. Japan: 0.43% +2.

Gold tanked after holding above $1200, 3 of last 4 sessions, closing at the session low of $1190.40 -$17.30! (10 straight session highs of $1200+). This negates last Monday’s HUGE ‘key reversal’ that had a high of $1220.40 and almost closed a gap going back to 10/28 ($1226.40). No longer above the 40/50 day (streak ended at 3!) since 10/21! 11/7’s low was $1130.40, a new 12-month low!). The last 27 sessions have had prints below $1200 – first time since 12/31/13 Last close above $1300 was on 8/15. 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! Res/Sup is at $1200 (psych), then the 40 day at $1201, the 50 day $1203, then the 200 day at $1272 – bottoming? The 12-month high is $1392.60 on 3/17, highest high since 9/4/13. 11/7’s low was $1130.40! Overnight slightly higher but without a $1200 print (high: $1198.70)0. There have now been 10 highs above $1200 since 10/31. Silver at $16.25, following a slight new high of $16.68 on Friday. 12/1’s low was $14.12, more than a five year low.

Crude closed WEAK at $65.84 -.97 with another narrow range of $65.12-66.89, following an outside session that was technically a negative key reversal (ignore?). No conviction! Last Monday’s range was $69.62-$73.64 – 4 handles – with a low of $63.72 – a new five year plus low (6/2010)! 10/28’s session high was $77.83. 10/25’s high was $84.83. There have been 43!!! handles since peaking at $107.73 on June 13th, highest since 9/19/13. The record high of $147.27 was on 9/30/08, the low since on 12/30/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. RES at the 40 day ($77.31!), then the 50 day ($79.96!), and lastly the 200 day (95.26!), all increasing their rate of decline! A failure here could take us to $59!!! The recent range is now $63.72-$112.24 since 3/1/12. Overnight it is sharply lower at $64.47 -$1.37 with a session low of $64.10! – near the recent low of $63.72 set on `12/1! Note that following the financial crisis it traded down to $32.40 on 12/31/08 from a high of $147.27 just three months earlier (-78%!!!).

Overnight Equities:

European equities weak, Asia doing a tad better ex-India (weak!) and Korea: UK -0.9% vs +0.8% vs -0.2% vs -0.3% vs +1.2% vs -0.9%; France -0.9% vs +1.3% vs -0.9% vs – vs +0.3%; Germany -0.5% vs +1.3% vs -0.6% vs +0.3% vs -0.2%; Japan +0.1% vs +0.2% vs +0.9% vs +0.3% vs +0.4%; Hang Seng +0.2% vs +0.7% vs +1.7%!!! vs -1%! vs +1.2% vs -2.6%!!! – rioting will do that! Korea -0.4% vs — vs +0.9% vs +0.2% vs – vs -0.8%; India -1.2%! vs -0.4% vs +0.4% vs – vs -04% vs -0.5%. U.S. equity futures weaker after gapping down on the open: DOW -60 (range 48 plus 19 gap); SPX -7.40! (9 +1); NDQ -15.25!!! (21- no gap). Exciting, no?

Some random thoughts:

…to be jolly??? Maybe in our personal lives but certainly not with racial relations moving to the fore once again…just when you thought it was safe. Here are TB’s gripes:

*Police mentality continues…with blacks 21 times more likely to be killed by a police officer than whites…due to police being predominantly white? …due to stops being aimed at blacks (and let’s not forget Hispanics)…in fact over a 12-year period blacks were more than 100 times more likely to be stopped than whites…and over 90% were released without even taking the names! Their ‘concept’ of necessary force (as shown in the NYPD choke hold case was absurd…possibly to get him down but once he was down and with three other officers there, he continued to choke the suspect…which brings us to ‘resisting arrest’ – trying to back away with his arms in the air? Not accommodating, but resisting?

*Police must be objective and transparent in the investigations of officers. Have outside investigators involved so that trust is rebuilt…unless you believe all police are good guys…if so, good luck!

*How about this for contrast: Rudy Giuliani and former LAPD Chief Darryl Gates (now a consultant to the NYPD). Giuliani racially stereotyping and fomenting anger; Gates showing logic and reason. But the big thing is how other departments are handling it: as opposed to just giving more instruction to officers, the ‘enlightened’ ones are putting officers back on the street so they aren’t sitting in their cars (and armored Humvees), with helmets etc. It is working to rebuild trust in the community! Finally! You decide.

*While TB is disgusted with Giuliani’s statements, the black community must stop painting all black youths as innocent victims. If we continue, to show younger, innocent pictures of black teens, when they have changed and look a lot more dangerous (bigger, tattooed, etc.), the black community must take some responsibility…and who is hurt most in the riots? Black-owned businesses! Lastly, blacks are nearly as likely to cross the street if they see some black men in their path as white people. Let’s be realistic and work towards a solution. Blacks cannot continue to see all persons of color as ‘victims’ (Remember the OJ case?…he was no more black than any white man in Los Angeles, yet they defended him…the civil suit and his subsequent actions proving him undeserving of that kind of ‘sympathy’. But then the L.A. District Attorney and police bungled it badly), they must be objective too.

Just some food for thought…TB does not claim to have the answers but if we all (black, white, hispanic) put our collective heads together, the truth will come out. Eventually.

Have a great day!

TB

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11/25/14…as Ferguson goes, so goes…

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “Confession is good for the soul only in the sense that a tweed coat is good for dandruff.” – Peter De Vries Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Intense love does not measure, it just gives. – Mother Teresa

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Economy in U.S. Grows More-Than-Forecast 3.9% on Higher Consumer Spending

*U.S. September Home Sale Prices Unchanged Vs Prior Month, FHFA Says

*Case-Schiller National Home Prices Rose 4.8% in Sept. y-o-y; 20 City Prices +4.9%

*S&P 500 Futures Rise With Europe Stocks on U.S. GDP Report as Dollar Gains – a tad

*Missouri Governor Orders More Troops as Ferguson Erupts on Jury Decision

*Santander Replaces CEO Marin With CFO Alvarez in Ana Botin’s First Shakeup – ?

*Lawmakers in U.S. Push for More Iran Sanctions After Nuclear Deal Failure

*Snowfall in Eastern U.S. Threatens Travel on Eve of Thanksgiving Holiday

*Nigeria Central Bank Raises Benchmark Interest Rate to 13%, Devalues Naira

*Dollar Bulls Amass Record $48 Billion Stake in Rally Lasting – all in?

*NYC Pays Record $732 Million as Cost of Settlements Rises Under De Blasio

*Rape Debate Raises Question Just Who Are Those College Boys? – not MY son!

*FBI Files Say Hedge Fund Analyst Made Millions Trading on Dell Insider Tips

 Monday’s Market Summary

Are any of you getting it yet? What TB has been telling you (ad nauseum?) about options expiration and month/quarter end? IGNORE THEM! Stay away! Sheesh! Note the opening on the Dow: following suit to Friday (but that in the rush to cover ahead of expiry), the Dow gapped up on the open (just 2 points) but for the first half hour went nearly vertical hitting the session high (+78 and of course another new record: 17855), then retraced over the next 20 minutes to a slight negative, and then spent most of the session the red – at the low down 20), before ‘inching back’ in the final 45 minutes to close up a whopping SEVEN points (i.e. flat)! Sign of strength? Not in TB’s book. Note the Mohammed El-Erian feels too that stocks are grossly overvalued, asking why stocks are so strong when commodities are in the tank? You decide…will the rest of the year be good for stocks and other living things? Yes, you say, but the Russell 2000 was up 1.2% – isn’t that the index that didn’t even participate in Friday’s rally (+0.1%)? Note that the other three indices that had a good session, Dow Transports, and the two Nasdaqs didn’t do much of anything Friday, and the S&P 500 was up just 0.3%. Dow Utilities were the only loser -0.8% vs +0.4% – still up 20.5% ytd (price alone!) near Transports, +23.9%! A/D’s and Breadth which were strong for NYSE stocks on Friday reversed with Nasdaq stocks being strong? New 52 week highs fell back to 280 vs 359 while new lows were steady at 68. The S&P VIX closed below ‘13’ for a second day at 12.62 -.28 (about neutral) and the session high was just 13.02, two days after topping at 15.74! Volume plunged back from that high 3.9B shares to a weak 3.1B…got it?

Total NYSE Volume plummeted back to 3.1B shares from 3.9B, highest since 11/4, vs 3.1B, lowest in more than a week, vs 3.4B vs 3.41B. Average volume since 9/30 is about 3.6B shares and slipping, or about 600M more than the 12-month average. Shares traded on the NYSE floor (aka REAL) also plunged to a below average 707M shares from a strong 1.04B shares highest since 10/31 (obviously expiration related!), vs 662M, lowest in 8 sessions, vs 738M vs 731M. For comparison purposes, for the prior 12 months it is a historically weak 715M shares…but since 10/1: 821B shares – including that HUGE 1.22B share day – highest since 9/19, followed by two more 1B plus days leading to options expiry!. The lowest was 10/6’s 696M share session. April 30 – September 30 we had just SEVEN 800M shares…since 10/1: 16, and FIVE 900M+ days.

A/D’s were so-so on the Big Board but strong on Nasdaq (a reversal?): NYSE: +1.6x vs 2x vs +1.9x vs -1.6x vs +1.6x; Nasdaq +2.4x vs +1.1x vs -2.6x vs +1.5x vs -1.9x. Breadth was even more divergent: NYSE +1.1x vs +3.7x vs +2.1x vs -1.6x vs +2x; Nasdaq 3.1x!!! vs +1.3x vs +2.8x vs -2.2x vs +2x. New 52 Week Highs dropped back to 280 vs 359 vs 173 vs 135 vs 304 – their range for the year is 39-612!!! New Lows were stable a very weak 68 vs 66 vs 104 vs 141 vs 117. The 2014 range is 24-1043!!! S&P VIX range narrowed with a high of just 13.02! This two days after hitting a very bearish 15.74, highest since 11/4! It closed near the session low 12.43 (for a 3rd day) at 12.62 -.28. This is its 20th sub-15 close since peaking on 10/15. Heading back toward those bearish extremes that had a high of 31.06 (highest since 11/28/11!!!)? You decide. The average of the past 12 months is 14.00, with a low of 10.28!…high close of 26.25 on 10/15/14! A month till next options expiration…won’t THAT be fun?

U.S. bond market closed slightly weaker. The recent 12 month low yields (10’s 2.09%; 30’s 2.87%; and long TIP 0.83%), 10’s closed at 2.30% -1/8; 30’s 3.01% 7/16, and the long TIP 0.97% -3/8. Overnight trying to rise: 10’s 2.31% –; 30’s 3.01% +3/16; and long TIP 0.97% +5/16.  

Libor update: 0.233% 3 mos.; 0.327% 6 mos., both steady and just above new record lows! The Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% and is steady at 0.09-0.10%. T-Bills: 0.4% one-month, 0.01%! 3 mos, 0.12% one year.

Foreign bond yields lower across the board ex-Greece which is just a tad higher (Benchmark is 10yr): Germany 0.76% -2; UK 2.02% -3; France 1.09% -2; Italy 2.16% -1; Spain 1.95% -2; Portugal 2.91% -4; Greece 7.72% +2. 10/16’s close was 8.54%! – cycle low: 5.42%; Crisis high: 12.57%. Japan: 0.44% –.

Gold closed slightly weaker at $1196.60 -$1.80, in an inside session, a day after a session high of $1208.20 – highest since 10/30 and first time above the 40/50 day since 10/21!…still hanging on to 11/14’s ‘positive key reversal’. 11/7’s low was $1130.40, a new 12-month low!). The last 19 sessions have had prints below $1200 – first time since 12/31/13 Last close above $1300 was on 8/15. 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! Res/SUP is at $1200 (psychological), then the 40 day at $1203, the 50 day $1207, then the 200 day at $1277. The 12-month high is $1392.60 on 3/17, highest high since 9/4/13. $1130.40. 11/7’s low was $1130.40! Overnight, it rose to $1203.00 briefly (only the 4th time over $1200 since 10/31), and currently $1191.10 -$5.50…at session low! Silver traded up $16.76 overnight, highest since 10/30, and back from 11/5’s low of $15.12, more than a five year low.

Crude also closed slightly lower at $75.78 -.73, also an inside session. Friday’s session high was $77.83. 7 days ago it set a new recent low of $74.07, lowest since 9/17/10!!! 10/25’s high was $84.83. There have been 33!!! handles since peaking at $107.73 on June 13th, highest since 9/19/13. The record high of $147.27 was on 9/30/08, the low since on 12/30/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. RES at the 40 day ($81.43!), then the 50 day ($83.77!), and lastly the 200 day (96.57!), all continuing to accelerate to the downside! A failure here could take us to $70! The recent range is now $74.07-$112.24 since 3/1/12. Overnight it is little changed and again unable to even ‘touch’ $77! Currently $75.95 +.17.

European equities higher; Asia mixed UK +0.3% vs – vs +1% vs -0.6% vs -0.1%; France +1.4%! vs +0.7% vs +2.1% vs -1.1% vs +0.6%; Germany +1.4% vs +0.7% vs +2% vs -0.6% vs +0.7%; Japan +0.3% vs closed vs +0.3% vs -0.1% vs -0.3% vs +2.2% vs -3%; Hang Seng -0.2% vs +2% vs +0.4% vs -0.1% vs -0.7% vs -1.1% vs -1.2%; Korea +0.1% vs +0.7% vs +0.4% vs -0.5% vs – vs +1.2%; India -0.6% vs +0.6% vs +1% vs +0.1% vs -0.5% vs -0.1%. U.S. equity futures modestly higher adfter gapping up on the open? DOW +32 (range 31 +10 gap); SPX +3.40 (8); NDQ +9.75 (26 +2).

 

Some random thoughts:

…America! Justice in Ferguson? How could any group, especially with three black women in it think there was no guilt in the shooting? Perhaps the three women were the votes to charge with something? That would be the worst possible outcome. As a former law enforcement officer and graduate of the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Academy, there is no way at least one charge shouldn’t be brought against the officer (reminiscent of the BART Fruitvale Station killing). The sad thing is that lost in the confusion is the fact that that boy had committed a crime…in fact just done so, substantiated by video cam…but not one worthy of the death penalty. Just as in Florida, though, childhood pictures were brought out showing an innocent young boy. Also, as in Florida, he was killed senselessly! Both the white and black communities must accept blame for this. Unfortunately, not the way Rudy Giuliani did on MTP Sunday…which turned into a shouting match that got totally out of control with a civil rights proponent. Recall, this is a man who wanted to be president!

Nothing is excused but Ferguson, like hundreds of cities around the country, was a time bomb…racially charged. Giuliani also made one valid point: 90% of all blacks murdered are by other blacks. Isn’t that at least partially due to the poor being congregated in just one place? Isn’t the fact that we have the highest incarceration rate of any industrialized nation a concern? We need legal reform that makes the penalty fit the crime, not hand out ten year sentences for possession – and at the end of that time they are hardened, and smarter, criminals. Yes, justice truly is blind!…and so are our elected officials.

Lastly, and deserving of a huge amount of blame is the affable NRA with its strong lobby who uses the excuse that Chicago has more killings and more illegal guns than anywhere in the country. Could legislation change that? Probably not, but a large amount of the blame for so many guns falls squarely on the NRA and its stance against any form of gun regulation.

Have a great day!

TB

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