Posts Tagged Obama

3/31/15 …is the GOP in self-destruct mode?

March 31, 2015 at 7:29 am · Filed under politics ·Tagged , , , , , , , ,

…or does it simply not care about anyone but its big-bucks supporters (a poor term since they are more the controllers of the party than supporting it and will only do so as long as the duly-elected people they pushed for do as they say)?

Look at what they have done since gaining the majority in both houses:

1. right after the election they acted the same way as the Dems did when they gained control: pure hubris. The leaders, Boehner and McConnell showed no willingness to work across the aisle – except for a ‘few’ things they agreed upon. For example: fixing the infrastructure…oh yes, they said we want to do that. Ah, then they are in favor of raising the gasoline tax. Both paused, then said they had no intention of doing that but would fix the infrastructure ‘as funds became available’.

2. Harry Reid may not have been the best Senate Majority Leader but he never showed the mean-spirited side of Mitch McConnell – the poster grumpy old man.

3. The House invited Netanyahu to address both house of Congress – while he was losing support and in the middle of an election, thus not only violating protocol, but assisting him in a re-election bid. This solidified his power and he was re-elected: just what we need…another example of the U.S. meddling in elections. Foul! But it gets worse: right after that the GOP sent a letter to Iranian President Rouhani saying he should not agree to the treaty as the U.S. would not have to abide by it. This act was atrocious as it is not a treaty and not subject to Congressional approval and goes along with Netanyahu’s desire to not have any agreement with them and make demands (which the GOP wants too) that have no chance of being implemented. A bad agreement is better than no agreement as the only solution then is to put boots on the ground alienating most Iranians. Something that the American people don’t want but gives the GOP a better argument to increase defense spending (which benefits the private contractors since our army is not of sufficient size to take on an enemy on yet another front). Remember, G.W. Bush & Co. cut taxes (mainly benefiting the wealthy), three times while fighting two wars – Iraq and Afghanistan – the latter a country we ‘entered” for the express purpose of getting Bin Laden with a promise that we would then leave: we didn’t and still are there in another expensive and fruitless action. It seems the GOP learned nothing from Lyndon Johnson’s ‘guns and butter’ Viet Nam war,or from the result which along with the current two (three if the Israeli’s and GOP have their way) wars, have been costly and detrimental to our image abroad. We seem to never learn, but hey, there’s big money in war.

4. Why do they support Netanyahu, who has declared there is no room for both Israel and Palestine? Because he is an American turned Israeli, and that is why Sheldon Adelson wants it and what Adelson wants, he gets…it is also likely that he was behind the Iran letter. Another force that even the GOP can’t control is the Koch brothers who do their own thing to push for what they want and don’t give a whit about the party…they just buy the candidates. Look at the examples of what this has done for us in the past. We supported: Trujillo in the Dominican Republic, Batista in Cuba, Nguen Thu in Viet Nam, to name a few. What has that done for the image of America?

5. The GOP is proud of the number of Republican governors, but should they be? Scott Walker is not all good; Texas has a history of bad decisions; and now Indiana Governor Mike Pence who just lowered himself to signing into law a bill that would make it legal to refuse service to gays and lesbians ‘on religious grounds’. A legislature can do stupid things but a governor is supposed to be the adult, a voice of reason. Now Indiana is paying for it…in spades. Several corporations have written that they will not do business in Indiana, and conferences are being cancelled. Think about this: isn’t this going back to the ‘white’s only’ signs in the South? The KKK must be licking their chops. Indiana will pay for this and hopefully its elected Republicans in the 2016 elections. TB would say the Supreme Court would overturn this but given the composition of the court…

Is TB anti-Republican? Pro-Democrat? None of these. He is an American who is disgusted with the path we are on: a downward spiral like the ones that have doomed previous great nations. The Roman Empire seems to be a ‘good’ example. Awww…what’s that got to do with us? Nothing…absolutely nothing. Got that?

Wake up, America…neither party gives a wit about you…only your vote…and if projections for the 2016 elections topping the $2 billion spent in the last election…estimate is FIVE billion…even your vote won’t count, because either candidate may have been (likely?) picked by a few wealthy people. Wall Street will contribute to both parties as they did when Obama was first elected (more to him then McCain), and again they will be in control. One has to blame Obama for not standing up to them. He had the support of Main Street, and had the chance to ‘make a difference’ as he said, the only thing he has to show for it is the ACA, which the GOP continues to bash despite having the approval of a majority of Americans (true, they don’t like parts of it, like having to pay and some young folks say it is more costly, BUT it is portable and your insurance can’t be cancelled, a truly important rule). If you think it is costly, try paying the COBRA from your former employer after you leave or are laid off or fired.

America is in a sad state, and the apathy of the people is truly shocking…perhaps they have PTS, from all of the freedom’s we have lost since 9/11. It’s time for us to wake up, and get involved.

Sincerely,

TB

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12/12/14…Congress is squeaking…can we oil it?

December 12, 2014 at 9:44 am · Filed under banking, economy, financial, markets, Oil, politics ·Tagged , , , , , ,

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “I play golf in the low 80’s. If it’s any hotter, I don’t play.” – Joe E. Lewis
Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Love is a chain of love as nature is a chain of life.” – Truman Capote…indecipherable to TB but then he always was…
Bloomberg Top Stories:
*U.S. Stock Futures Decline With European Equities as Oil Fall Below $60 – $58.70!
*IEA Lowers Forecast for Global Oil Demand for Fourth Time in Five Months – Egad!
*Wholesale Prices in U.S. DECLINED MORE Than Economists Forecast on Energy!
*Investors Dash for Europe – U.S. Debt as Moribund Inflation, Oil Spur Demand
*U.S. Spending Fight Moves to Senate as House Passage Caps Day of Discord – sick!
*Two Sigma Returns 47% as Hedge Fund Machines Beat Humans Confounded by Oil – !
*Junk-bond Well Runs Dry as Oil Shock Quells Debt Issuance – bet GE sells bonds!
*Record Oil Tankers seen Sailing to china Signals Price-Slump Stockpiling – not good!
*Democrats Find Voic in Proxy Fights With Wall Street After Election Loss
*$70 Oil Is Norway’s Break-Even for Policy Setting, Central Banks Says – $48 for shale!
*The New Guide to Trading on Insider Information Without the Risk of Prison – SICK!!!
*Mexico Shale Boom Outlook Dims as U.S. Drillers Struggle with Rout at Home – oops
Thursday’s Market Summary:
Hah, TB you don’t know your tail from a hole in the ground…idiot! See, the end of the world didn’t materialize…we had a nice rally! Is that so? Early in the morning, this scribe might have agreed while he scratched his head pondering the meaning of the word ‘huh’. Let’s recap: Gold still holding steady above $1200, Crude continuing to plunge – could we see gas below $2???; Bonds. which had been up slightly overnight as they probed their low recent yields, turned turtle on the stock rally which took the Dow up over 210 points…then stagnated…as if afraid to look down…and then it did, nearly back to ZERO on the day, before closing up 63, or 0.4% – weakest of the indices along with the Russell 2000. The rest were ALL up 0.5% and you know how TB feels about coincidences! Ok, Dow Transports were up 0.8%, but the winner was once again, the affable (not laughable) Dow Utilities +1%! YTD, w/divvies reinvested they are up 29% despite a few minor setbacks. Compare to second place Dow Transports +28.7% – the winner until this month…December can be a very cold month. NDQ 100 is up 24.7%; Dow +10.9%, and S&P 500 15.4%. Still pretty good but think how much better you would sleep at night collecting those dividends. Speaking of dividends, honk if you think ‘tax-dodging’ IBM is going to the several billion dollar increase by repatriating dollars…no way…they will issue debt here to pay for them, further insuring they pay no U.S. taxes…thanks, Jack Welch and his clone Jeff Immelt…you know, the guy Obama appointed to head his commission on ‘small businesses’ – isn’t that like making Count Dracula head of a blood bank? You bet! …and they are the last honest ‘big’ bank left in the country! Now look at Volume…3.9B steady, while A/D’s and Breadth were barely positive in comparison to yesterday’s NYSE Breadth of MINUS 15.5x!!! Ne 52 week highs steady at a feeble 201 while new lows declined but just to a still high 364! Saving the best for last, the S&P VIX dropped sharply on the open BUT just to 15.94 which is still very bearish, then, even as the market sat indecisive slowly began to rise, accelerating into the close ending at a HUGE 20.08 +1.55 (+8%)…and from the session low: up 26%!!! Unheard of! What a setup for next Friday’s options expiration…quadruple witching and the last one of the year. Could be downright ugly!

Total NYSE Volume near even at 3.93B shares vs 4.05B vs 3.95B vs 3.72B vs 3.36B. Average volume since 9/30 remains about 3.6B shares or about 600M more than the 12-month average. Shares traded on the NYSE floor (aka REAL) slipped but remains high at 824M shares vs 913M (1st 900M day since October!) vs 834M vs 770M vs 755M, For comparison purposes, for the prior 12 months it is a historically weak 721M shares…but since 10/1: 814B shares – including that HUGE 1.22B share day – highest since 9/19, followed by two more 1B plus days leading to options expiry!. The lowest was 11/1’s 619M share session. April 30 – September 30 we had just SEVEN 800M shares…since 10/1: now at 21 – just one in Nov, and SIX 900M+ days. Now FOUR 800M days and one 900M day for Dec.

A/D’s unimpressive: NYSE: +1.4x vs -4.6x!!! vs +1.5x vs -2.3x vs +1.1x; Nasdaq +1.5x vs -4.6x!!! vs +2.1x vs -2.9x vs +1.9x. Breadth was similar: NYSE +1.2x vs -15.5x!!! (Unbelievable!) vs +1.4x vs -3.8x!!! vs 1:1; Nasdaq +2.2x vs -2.5x vs +2.1x vs -3.3x vs +1.6x. New 52 Week Highs steady at a weak 201 vs 215 vs 207 vs 386 vs 363 – their range for the year is 39-612!!! New Lows fell back but remain strong at 364 vs 460 vs 467! vs 416 vs 283. The 2014 range is 24-1043!!! S&P VIX attempted to decline but only made it to 15.94 – this despite the early rally – then worked its way back to 20.13, highest since 10/10 before closing at 20.08 +1.55 or +26%!!! Those bearish extremes that had a high of 31.06 (highest since 11/28/11!!!), are now a big possibility with options expiry just a week away. The average of the past 12 months is 13.98, with a low of 10.28!…high close of 26.25 on 10/15/14!

U.S. bond market closed mixed but after being hit early in the session. Note on 12/2, the 30 yr bottomed at 3.01%. Updating the recent 12 month low yields (10’s 2.09%; 30’s 2.80%!; and long TIP 0.83%), 10’s closed at 2.16%! -1/32; 30’s 2.80%! NEW LOW +5/16, and the long TIP 0.85%!!! +1/2. Overnight rallying strong: 10’s 2.12%! +3/8; 30’s 2.77%!!! ANOTHER LOW +3/4; long TIP 0.83% +7/16 – tied for low!
Libor update: 0.240% 3 mos.; 0.338% 6 mos. Both still near their recent record lows! The Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% and is currently 0.11-0.13% – a 9-month high. T-Bills: 0.01%! one-month; 0.03% 3 mos; 0.19%!!! – why is it rising?
Foreign bond yields lower, ex-Greece which is nearing 9%!!! (Benchmark is 10yr): Germany 0.63%! -5!; UK 1.82%! -8!; France 0.89%! -5!; Italy 2.03% -2; Spain 1.86% -1; Portugal 2.93% -1; Greece 8.88%!!! vs 8.70%! vs 8.24%! vs 7.71% vs 7.03% +8. Not for the faint of heart! 10/16’s close was 8.54%! – cycle low: 5.42%; Crisis high: 12.57%. Japan: 0.39 -1.

Gold is holding nicely safely above $1200 closing at $1225.60 -$3.30 – a ‘temporizing bid’ again two days after that strong rally and close that had a session high of $1238.00 – highest since 10/22 and the first REAL $1200+ close since the selloff began. Well above the 40/50 day again for just the 6th time since 10/21! 11/7’s low was $1130.40, a new 12-month low!). This was only the 2nd time in 31 sessions without a print below $1200. Last close above $1300 was on 8/15. 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! Support is at $1200 (psych) and the 40 day, the 50 day $1203, RES at the 200 day $1270 – all have bottomed! The 12-month high is $1392.60 on 3/17, highest high since 9/4/13. 11/7’s low was $1130.40! Overnight it is slightly weaker at $1223.90 -$1.70 – holding nicely with a low of just $1218! There have now been 13 highs above $1200 since 10/31. Silver trading near its $17.27 high at $17.08! This following a $14.12 recent low, not seen in more than five years!

Crude dove yet again to yet a new low 5+ year low (7/09), of $59.32 –it’s 6th straight ‘lower low’ before closing at $59.95 -$1.79! Consider: 10/25’s high was $84.83. There have now been 46!!! handles since peaking at $107.73 on June 13th, highest since 9/19/13. The record high of $147.27 was on 9/30/08, the low since on 5/15/09 is $56.07: $89.85 is the average! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. RES at the 40 day ($75.11!), then the 50 day ($77.45!), and lastly the 200 day (94.48!), all STILL increasing their rate of decline! We are now headed for $50!!! The recent range is now $59.32-$112.24 since 3/1/12. Overnight it is plunging through support again with another new low of $58.56 (now its 47th handle)!_It is now $58.70 -$1.25!!! Note that following the financial crisis it traded down to $32.40 on 12/31/08 from a high of $147.27 just three months earlier (-78%!!!).

Overnight Global Markets:

European equities EXTREMELY weak – now three days! Asia mixed, Japan higher? UK -1.5%! vs -0.8% vs +0.1% vs -1.5%!!! vs -0.9%; France -1.5%! vs -0.4% vs +0.1% vs -1.8%!!! vs -0.9% vs +1.3% vs -0.9%; Germany -1.4%! vs +0.1% vs +0.6% vs -1.6%!!! vs -0.5% vs +1.3%; Japan +0.7% vs -0.9% vs -2.3%!!! vs -0.7% vs +0.1%; Hang Seng -0.3% vs -0.9% vs +0.1% vs -2.3%!!! vs +0.2%; Korea +0.3% vs -1.5%!!! vs -1.3%! vs -0.4% vs -0.4%; India -0.9% vs -0.8% vs +0.1% vs -1.2%! vs -1.2%! U.S. equity futures SLAMMED – and yes, Thursday WAS a dead cat bounce? DOW -105 (124); SPX -10.70 (140; NDQ -24 (44). Worse, it is ‘orderly’!

Some random thoughts:

…with oil plunging…$58.56 overnight…and shale drillers requiring $48 to breakeven (not tht that matters because they will have to keep pumping to service debt and other expenses), Norway, and now Mexico are in trouble…and not related to oil is Greece which may have to tap the well yet again (ECB not ‘oil’). Note that Greek 10-year bond yields have risen to near 9% from 7% in just FOUR days! Also, Wholesale Prices are plunging now on Crude (gasoline is in CPI not in WPI), and imagine IF the Fed had tightened in its ill-advised inflation concerns! They (like Obama should have done), had better stay focused on jobs…and note that a lowering of inflation brings them closer to that zero inflection point that Bernanke so feared.

Meanwhile, Congress is now in a battle…actually two over the debt ceiling: the first along party lines (GOP outcasts objecting), and second, Dems and ‘across-the-aisle’ Republicans joining hands over the absurd and criminal idea of increasing political contribution amounts for the wealthy – their base! Boehner continuing to be a jerk while McConnell and Obama seem to be in détente. Technically the government is out of money but that will be solved today at the last possible minute…unless Sen. Ted Cruz holds sway.

Meanwhile the stock market is more volatile than nitro glycerine – a fool’s pastime.

Get out of here while you can and enjoy your weekend!

TB

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6/27/14…will someone do something….please?

June 27, 2014 at 7:54 am · Filed under banking, economy, financial, markets, politics ·Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “A car is useless in New York; essential everywhere else. The same with good manners.” – Mignon McLaughlin

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “I dwell in possibility.” – Emily Dickenson…that’s impossible! TB

Bloomberg Top Stories:
*Jenkins Falters in Barclays Culture Shift as Dark Pool Suit Cites Deceit – a sick industry!
*Euro-Area Economic Confidence Unexpectedly Declines on Currency, Ukraine
*Dollar Weakens as S&P 500 Futures Retreat While Yen, Treasuries Strengthen
*Yellen’s Spending Recipe Lacking One Key Ingredient; Bigger Wage Increased – only CEO’s!
*Market Structure Nightmares Come True in Schneiderman’s Barclays Complaint
*German Inflation Coming In Above Forecasts Signals Euro Area Price Pickup
*Utilities Unsexy No more as Three-Year Deal High Tempts Buffett – Dow Utilities +16% ytd!!!
*Argentina Tests Court Order by Posting $539 Million Interest Payment
*Big-Belly Boeing 777 Capacity Blunts Demand for Cargo-Only Jets
*Moscow Hookahs Go Nicotine-Free as Russia Tobacco Ruling Hits Pipe Smoking
*Are Markets Worth the Expense of Turning the Lights Back on? – hmmm
*Putin Crimea Honeymoon Hides Retreat to Economic Bunker as Credit Dries Up
*Ukraine to Extend Cease-Fire in East as President Signs EU Trade Accord
*Top Cleric Tells Iraq Leaders to Pick New Premier as Forces Bomb Militants – !!!
*Kerry Finds U.S. Vision Hard to Sell in Mideast Roiled by Islamic Radicals – What vision???
*Fastest-Growing Metro Area in U.S. Has No Crime, Pollution or Kids – The Villages, Florida! Adults 55+ only, no voting rights for residents and developed by a billionaire libertarian!

Thursday’s Market Summary:

All of the action is bonds which rallied again ignoring the brief positive ‘flutter’ in stocks despite the weak data. Bonds saw thru it and long TIPS close BELOW 1%!
A mixed session so we have had all possible combinations this week. This despite a valiant attempt to ignore the Final Q1 GDP drop and the weakness in consumer spending accompanies by a slight pickup in the savings rate. It still hasn’t even retraced 50% of Tuesday’s loss. Consider: Dow -0.1% vs +0.3% vs -0.7%; Transports -0.2% vs +0.9% vs -0.9%; S&P 500 -0.1% vs +0.5% vs -0.6%; NDQ Composite and 100 both FLAT vs +0.7% vs -0.6% and -0.4% respectively. Russell 2000 -0.2% vs +0.8% vs -1%. Dow Utilities however were up slightly at 0.1% vs + 0.6% vs +0.1%! NYSE Financials -0.4% vs +0.1% vs -0.8%: Brokers -0.3% vs +0.8% vs -1.5%; KBW Banks -0.3% vs +0.3% vs -0.8%; Nasdaq Banks flat vs +0.6% vs -0.7%.

Total NYSE Volume was weak at 2.78B shares vs 3.1B vs 3.06B shares, down from 4.22B on Friday’s options expiration. Real NYSE Volume declined to a very weak 592M shares (with includes 100M AFTER the bell!) vs 653M vs 648M and the 12-month average slipped again to 708M! Since 4/30 the average volume has been just 664M shares ranging from 531M to 1.72B.

A/D’s were totally NEUTRAL!!! NYSE +1.1x vs +2.2x vs -1.7x vs -1.01x vs +1.3x; Nasdaq -1.1x vs +1.7x vs -2.4x vs -1.3x vs +1.3x. Breadth was similar: NYSE +1.02x vs +2.2x vs -3.5x! vs +1.05x vs +1.1x; Nasdaq +1.1x vs +2.4x vs -2.3x vs +1.06x vs +1.3x vs 1.3x. Note that Breadth on the NDQ 100 was -1.7:1 while the index was unchanged. New 52 Week Highs were stable at a weak 221 vs 214 vs 288 vs 369 vs 469 – recent range 71-515!!! New Lows dipped to 51 vs 64 vs 52 vs 42 vs 60 vs 42 vs 40 vs 38 – recent range is 24-214.
S&P VIX was slightly higher rising from a slight negative at the close but remains in bullish (overly???) territory at 11.63 +0.04 with ‘12’ prints at the top of the range for a third session: 11.50-12.51 – range has been stretching higher for five straight sessions after bottoming at 10.34 last Friday on options expiraton!

Overnight markets:

Bonds closed higher for a third session with TIPS closing BELOW 1%! 10 yr closed at 2.53%! +1/4. 30 yr closed 3.34% +1/2. The long TIP, which hit a low of 0.978% on 5/29, closed 0.99%%!!! +11/16. Overnight they climbing again: 10’s 2.51%! +1/8; 30’s 3.34% +9/16; and long TIP 0.97%!!! +7/16. Cycle highs: 30 yr high was 3.97% on 12/31; the 10 yr recent high 3.03%! Long TIP was 1.64%. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5/13.
Libor update: 0.235% 3 mos.; 0.327% 6 mos., both remain near their record lows, set recently: 0.222% and 0.320% respectively! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% since 5/22/13 and remains at 0.09% -0.10%. Foreign bond yields little changed following yesterday’s strong session except Portugal and Greece which are higher: Germany 1.24% –; UK 2.63% -1; France 1.69% +1; Italy 2.84% –; Spain 2.64% +1; Portugal 3.58% +11!!! Greece, which closed at 5.76% yesterday is now 5.83% +8! The recent high on selloff was 6.75%. Highly volatile!!! Recent range is 5.42% to 12.57%. Japan: 0.55% -1.

Gold had a narrow inside session closing at $1316.10 -$6.10 a day after trading up to $1325.60 Tuesday – highest since 4/15 when it swooned. This is the sixth straight close above $1300 since 4/14! Six days ago the high was $1285.10 – highest since 5/27 when it began its devastating plunge. 6/9’s $1240.20 was lowest since 1/31/14!!! It remains above all three key moving averages which are very tight: 200 day $1288, then the 50 day $1285, and the 40 day $1283 – key is the psychological $1300 level It has fared poorly since the ‘key reversal’ on 3/17, after printing the recent high of $1392.60, highest high since 9/4/13! Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Overnight is little changed at $1316.20 -.80 in a very tight range. Since last Friday’s $41 rally it has done nothing but consolidate.

Crude traded down to $105.03, lowest since 6/12! Last Friday’s run to $107.73 – highest since 9/19/13, a huge down session – has left it in limbo. It closed at $105.84 -.66 – the 2nd close below $106 since rally began more than a week ago over Iraq. 6/5’s low of $101.60 was lowest since 5/16. 3/2’s session low was $97.37, lowest since 2/4! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. It remains well above all three moving averages: 40 day $103.36, 50 day $103.10, then the 200 day $100.07. The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is little changed at a weak $105.81 -.06 in a tight inside session.

Global equity markets little changed except for a weak Nikkei! UK +0.1% vs — vs -0.5% vs -0.1% vs -0.2%; France – vs +0.1% vs -0.7% vs +0.1% vs -0.3%; Germany +0.1% vs – vs -0.4% vs – vs -0.3%; Japan -1.4%! vs +0.3% vs -0.7% vs +0.1% vs +0.1%; Hang Seng +1.5%!!! vs -0.1% vs +0.3% vs -1.7% vs +0.1%; Korea -0.3% vs +0.7% vs -0.6% vs +1% vs +0.4%; India +0.2% vs -1%! vs -0.2% vs +1.4% vs -0.3%; U.S. Stock Index Futures weaker: DOW -26 (range 41); SPX -4.10 (6!); NDQ -5 (10!).

Some random thoughts:

…TB’s blood pressure up as he had to respond to an old Navy buddy who believes we have gone soft and that we can win any war…if we wanted to…with anybody. This sounds right out of Dick Cheney’s ill-designed playbook.

One thing that TB learned from reading Ken Okrient’s tome on Prohibition, Last Call, is that then, as now the Republican Party preaches being for the middle class but caters only to the wealthiest Americans. But at least with high income tax rates then – which if you can believe this ROSE after Prohibition ended – they had a gripe. Using Econ 100 it is rational for an individual to continue to work hard until the marginal tax rate exceeds 50% (it peaked at 90% after repeal and remained there for decades), not the 35% that our billionaires squeal about even while they don’t pay it and shelter it offshore…as do our corporations the latest of which was Medtronics that is moving its ‘corporate’ headquarters to Ireland for a 9% tax rate…bet they never came close to paying 30% here!

This has prompted some to say that while it makes sense financially…and the company claims it is forced to do this as stewards to the investors…but this flies in the face of why corporations are allowed to exist and as Milton Friedman and other ‘sage’ economists believed would always work in the long term interest of the shareholders for the long-term survival of the company. Long-term now means the expected tenure of the CEO (by the CEO), while short-term is the next quarter! Oh and spending corporate money is not for the benefit of the shareholders (necessarily) but to donate to PACs which serve the CEO’s interest and might not necessarily align with the investors…let them eat cake! – if they can afford it!

Ever hear of Rebekah Erler? She’s the Minneapolis woman who wrote to Obama about the plight of the middle class as her family struggles to get alone. In what is more likely to be a fundraising trip, the president met with her and others and had lunch with her yesterday. That’s great…but what will come of it? He certainly shows empathy for peoples problems but what has he or will he do about them? Not much and thanks to a recalcitrant GOP couldn’t anyway. Which brings us to SOTU and John Boehner.

In case you have been asleep, Boehner is filing a suit against Obama for overuse of authority…and careful to add, not impeachment – the party still bears the scars of that fiasco! TB had to laugh when the tea party guy, Lankford, running against veteran Sen.Thad Cochran in Oklahoma in his rant said the veteran representative was guilty of ‘reaching across the aisle!” Quel horror!
But back to Boehner…isn’t that what the Speaker is supposed to do? Didn’t he blame his problems on an unruly tea party contingent and the near-deposed Eric Cantor?

Then comes the Supreme Court voting 9-0 that Obama violated the Constitution in 2012 when he appointed members of the Labor Relations board while the Senate was in an interim recess. That is true, but what they did not address is a Senate who missued the filibuster by not allowing up or down votes for appointees to any position. So, constitution or not, what happens when the people elect someone and yet the opposition with no good reason stymies anything he tries to do including appointees to assist him in doing his job? The court was right, the Constitution trumps but it is doubtful this is what they intended. Some democracy when we have a gridlocked Congress.

Ok, blood pressure has subsided now…TB thinks…you decide the issues.

Enjoy your weekend…hopefully it is a good one!

TB

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6/5/14…potpourri

June 5, 2014 at 8:08 am · Filed under banking, economy, financial, markets, politics ·Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “A guilty conscience is the mother of invention.” – Carolyn Wells

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “People many hear your words, but they feel your attitude.” – John C. Maxwell

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Draghi Takes ECB Deposit Rate Negative in Historic Policy Move – think negative Fed Funds!
*Fewest Americans Filed Jobless Claims Over Past Month Since 2007 – who’s left to let go???
*Jamie Dimon’s Raise Comes Back to Haunt BNP Paribas in U.S. Sanctions Case
*Sprint Nears Deal to buy T-Mobile US, Valuing Carrier at About $31 Billion
*Deutsche Bank Prices Shares at 24% Discount in Biggest Offering Since 2010 – HUGE discount
*Carney Finds Ally in Draghi as BOE Keeps Key Interest Rate at Record Low
*Draghi-Yellen Split Widening to Revive Market Volatility, Banks Hypnotized – oops!
*Hollande Says $10 Billion BNP Fine Would Undermine European Bank Stability – TBTF – WTF?
*Amazon Said to Be Ready to Debut Smartphone to Compete With Apple, Samsung – hmmmm?
*Alfa Bets Pacific Rubiales Stakes Brings ‘Oilman’ Stats in Mexico – viva!
*Hollandes’ Dinner Plans Tonight Include Putin, Obama and BNP – some hand!
*Taliban Swap Reflects Obama’s Drive to Close Guantanamo Prison – but at what cost???
*G-7 Spares Russia New Sanctions Urging Diplomacy to Resolve Ukraine Crisis
*College Graduates in U.S. Struggle to Find Jobs That Are Worth a Degree – 50% won’t!
*Irish Catholic Orphanage Buried 796 Children in Mass Grave Over 35 Years – a cardinal sin!

Wednesday’s Market Summary:

A dull up day punctuated only by the release of the Beige Book for the next FOMC meeting…nothing to see there except indications of enough strength to perhaps persuade them to reduce the taper again. Most indices barely budged (flat to +0.2%) but Russell 2000 was +0.5% followed by the two Nasdaqs+0.4%…zzzzz.

Total NYSE Volume was about even at a weak 2.78B shares vs 2.83B vs 2.5B vs 3.7B vs 2.68B vs 2.92B vs 2.89B vs 2.4B vs 2.74B! …WEAK!! Real trades on the floor of the NYSE however took another header to a very weak 592M shares from an already weak 657M vs 549M vs 916M vs 544M vs 636M vs 657M vs 554M vs 577M! The 12-month average has slipped again to an historically weak 718M shares!!!!
A/D’s were slightly positive – they have been meaningless for days: NYSE +1.1x vs -1.6x vs -1.1x vs +1.1x vs +2x; Nasdaq +1.2x vs -1.6x vs -1.6x vs -1.6x vs +1.4x. Breadth was a tad better: NYSE +1.3x vs -1.1x vs +1.1x vs -1.1x vs +2.6x; Nasdaq +1.7x vs -1.1x vs -1.2x vs -1.4x vs +2.1x vs +4.3x! New 52 Week Highs a little higher at 262 vs 225 vs 318 vs 271 vs 287 vs 229 vs 336 vs 167 – recent low 71!!! New Lows steady at 96 vs 93 vs 57 vs 60 vs 45 vs 61 vs 50 – recent range 45-214.
Watch volatility closely…S&P VIX remains bullish but climbed modestly for a 3rd day to 12.08 +.21 – first close above ‘12’ in NINE sessions while the range of 11.91-12.33 was tight but the important thing was that the high was 12.33 – 3rd ‘12’ print in 8 sessions!

Overnight markets:

Bonds closed about even after taking that big hit Tuesday: 10 yr closed at 2.60% –. 30 yr closed 3.44% –. The long TIP, which hit a low of 0.978% on 5/29, closed 1.15% –, that’s 3-1/2 points in two sessions!!! Overnight slightly better: 10’s 2.59% +3/32; 30’s 3.44% +1/16; and long TIP 1.15% +1/16. Cycle highs: 30 yr high was 3.97% on 12/31; the 10 yr recent high 3.03%! Long TIP was 1.64%. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5/13.
Libor update: 0.231% 3 mos.; 0.322% 6 mos., both remain just off their record lows, set recently: 0.227% and 0.320% respectively! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.08% since 5/22/13 and is 0.07% -0.09%. Foreign bond yields lower across the board: Germany 1.42% -1; UK 2.67% -2; France 1.82% -2; Italy 2.96% -6!; Spain 2.84% -4; Portugal 3.60% -5; Greece, which bottomed at 5.83% on 2/24 is now 6.18% vs 6.33! -9 o/n! – the high on selloff was 6.75%. Highly volatile!!! Range is 5.77% to 12.57%. Japan: 0.61% –.

Gold closed essentially unchanged for a second day – but a 6th day of decline on an inside session – at $1244.30 -.20. Tuesday’s $1240.20 was lowest since 1/31/14!!! Off $35 last month! This, after hitting $1304.10 on 5/22 – the last time it saw $1300! It is way below the 40/50/200 days and the psych support level of $1300 with first res at the 40 day $1288, then the 50 day $1289, and the 200 day $1296 – note convergence and thus formidable resistance! It has fared poorly since the ‘key reversal’ on 3/17, after printing the recent high of $1392.60, highest high since 9/4/13! Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Overnight another ‘inside’ session and currently $1246.20 +$1.80.

Crude also closed essentially flat after making a charge to $103.69 before succumbing at $102.64 -.02, following Monday’s low of $102.10, lowest since 5/20. Friday’s high was $104.50 – still highest since being slammed on 4/22! 3/2’s session low was $97.37, lowest since 2/4! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. It remains above all three moving averages but very close to first support at the 40 day ($102.17) then the 50 day ($101.91), and 200 day $100.20. The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is a little lower at $102.37 -.27.

European equity markets higher, Asia mixed: UK +0.1% vs -0.3% vs -0.6% vs -0.1% vs +0.3%; France +0.6% vs -0.1% vs -0.3% vs – vs -0.4%; Germany +0.3% vs -0.2% vs -0.5% vs +0.2% vs –; Japan +0.1% vs +0.2% vs +0.7% vs +2.1%!!! vs -0.3%; Hang Seng -0.2% vs -0.6% vs +0.9% vs closed vs +0.3%; Korea -0.7% vs closed vs +0.3% vs +0.4% vs -0.9%%; India +0.9% vs -0.2% vs +0.7% vs +1.9%!!! vs -0.1% vs -1.3%! U.S. Stock Index Futures slightly higher in another narrow range session: DOW +27 (range 43); SPX +1.60 (5); NDQ +3 (11).
Some random thoughts:

…you go to potpourri when there is nothing else significant to say, thus allowing you (the writer) not to dwell on the inane…and you (the reader) to be spared the noise.

First, TB’s bet is that Obama will beg them to refocus on Benghazi after the outrage that was just completed and we now know that in 2012 Hillary Clinton was opposed to the deal. We also learned that yes, at that point they did negotiate with the Taliban…despite protests they didn’t. This leaves Hagel (the Vet), Kerry (the Vet turned anti-war), and Rice (the Sunday speaker), left to defend the deal. Where is Biden…”I know ‘nussing’ “ if he is smart! But then supposing that Bergdahl is in fact a deserter (to do otherwise means you have to disregard the statements of at least three of his former buddies…), and what to do about the six soldiers who died trying to find him??? Some would say he has already suffered enough…what will the families of those soldiers say?

Next item, the $10 billion ‘excessive’ fine to BNP…French President Hollande is upset saying they are being penalized more than U.S. banks…they have a point but only because a) they didn’t cooperate, and b) theirs isn’t excessive…the U.S. banks just weren’t fined enough. As a Bloomberg story today says: if you can’t pay the fine, don’t commit the crime! It goes on to cite an U.S. prosecutor who was outraged after JPMorgan was fined $1.7 billion (one of the more than 300 times since the crisis…without admitting guilt naturally), for ‘enabling’ Madoff’s Ponzi scheme, that the bank gave Jamie Dimon a 74% pay increase! Damn right, he is mad…he would be a fool if he wasn’t – like his boss, Eric Holder! No one…no ONE has either stopped to think how much these banks made of schemes from fixing Libor to foreclosure fraud…and if you can’t make the punishment fit the crime – by exceeding the profit made it is just a cost of doing business and thus no one is accountable and Mr. Dimon can continue to earn as if he were a guru (wait…guru’s don’t make money…they answer to a higher power…true guru’s that is, not financial ones!)

Lastly, since when do nuns…especially Irish nuns operating a home for unwed mothers hide the bodies of 800 children – in a septic tank no less??? How disgusting…what kind of people…who do they think they are? Rapist/murderers in India?

Have a great day…don’t expect markets to offer excitement!

TB

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6/2/14…trader bill the prophet…well, sort of…

June 2, 2014 at 8:29 am · Filed under banking, economy, financial, markets ·Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “Have you noticed? Anyone driving faster than you is an idiot, and anyone driving slower is a moron.” – George Carlin

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life.”
– Steve Jobs…wonder when he said that…but sound advice!
This week’s economic calendar is packed with important indicators. The highlight of the week will be the May ISM Manufacturing Survey (Monday), May ISM Non-manufacturing Survey (Wednesday) and May Employment Situation report (Friday). We will also get April Construction Spending (Monday), April Factory Orders and May Motor Vehicle Sales (Tuesday), May ADP Employment, April International Trade, Q1 Productivity & Costs Final (Wednesday), and April Consumer Credit (Friday). Courtesy of Economic Advisory Service.
Bloomberg Top Stories:
*Juan Carlos of Spain Abdicates After Scandals; Felipe to Be King – its good to be king!
*Putin’s the Chief Audience for Obama’s Three-Country Europe Tour – good luck on that one!
*Obama Seeks Power-Plant Emissions Cuts Republicans Oppose – like coal…dinosaurs!
*Abbas Swears in Palestinian Unity Government as Dispute Resolved
*U.S. Forces Planned for Worst in Prisoner Recovery, Hagel Says – the deal was the worst!
*India’s Police Mocked Father of Pre-Teen Raped and Killed – sick bastards!
*Prostate Cancer Patients Live Year Longer With Early Chemo Use
*Cancer Hospitals Make Gene Tests a New Standard for Care
*NFL With Developers Push for Congress Win on Terrorism Insurance – oh come on!
*Libyan Troops Clash With Benghazi Militias as Eight Are Killed
*Australia’s Last Two Years Hottest on Record, Climate Group Says – it can’t happen here!
*Russia Gives Ukraine Leeway on Gas as Five Rebels Are Killed

Friday’s Market Summary:

Looks like the summer doldrums are here. Ah, but volume rose, you say. Conceded, but it was monthend. Compare and contrast to April 30th: Total Volume 3.7B shares…May 3.17B shares. Shares traded on the floor of the NYSE: 909M vs 916 in other words a typical monthend…in fact somewhat weak on overall volume. Aside from that it was a session for the indices and the indicators with Dow Transports -0.1%, the two Nasdaq’s -0.1%, the Dow up just 0.1% and the S&P +0.2%. Best? Dow Utilities +0.8%!!! Weakest was the Russell 2000 -0.5%! Financials flat.
Here are returns for month and year to date:
May YTD
Dow +0.8% +0.9%
Transports +5.6% +9.5%
Dow Utilities -1.6% +11.1%!!!
S&P 500 +2.1% +4.1%
NDQ Comp +3.1% +1.6%
NDQ 100 +4.3% +4.0%
Russell 2000 +0.7% -2.5%
NYSE Fin +1.5% +1.1%
KBW Banks +0.7% +1.1%
NDQ Banks -0.6% -4.4%

Total NYSE Volume as stated above came back but to a still below average 3.7B shares from a very weak 2.68B vs 2.92B vs 2.89B s 2.4B vs 2.74B! …WEAK!! Real trades on the floor of the NYSE also rose to a strong (but not for monthend) 916M shares from a putrid 544M vs 636M vs 657M vs 554M vs 577M! The ‘prior’ high for the month was 775M while Thursday’s 544M shares was the low and the average for the month was a weak 663M shares or about 60M below the weak 12-month average of 722M shares!
A/D’s were mixed and minor: NYSE +1.1x vs +2x vs +1.1x vs +2.2x vs +2x; Nasdaq -1.6x vs +1.4x vs -1.6x vs +2.9x vs +2.5x. Breadth was slightly negative: NYSE -1.1x vs +2.6x vs -1.1x vs +2.1x vs +2.3x; Nasdaq -1.4x vs +2.1x vs +4.3x! vs +2.5x vs +2.6x. But who cares when the volume is so low? New 52 Week Highs were slightly lower at 271 vs 287 vs 229 vs 336 vs 167 – recent low 71!!! New Lows were modestly higher at 60 vs 45 vs 61 vs 50 vs 51 – recent range 45-214.
As for volatility…S&P VIX remains bullish and despite the mixed session slightly lower…buying puts (or setting sell stops ‘with limits’) is very cheap…consider it! 11.40 -.17 with an even narrower range of 11.32-11.70– note not a single ‘12’ print – for a sixth straight session!

Overnight markets:

Bonds closed the month slightly weaker but compare to April 30th: 10 yr closed at 2.46% vs 2.65%. 30 yr closed 3.32% vs 3.46%! The long TIP, which hit a low of 0.978% on 5/29, closed 1.01% vs 1.14% – not too shabby! Overnight they are weaker…payrolls week ahead: 10’s 2.49% -1/8; 30’s 3.34% -1/4; and long TIP 1.03% -7/16. Cycle highs: 30 yr high was 3.97% on 12/31; the 10 yr recent high 3.03%! Long TIP was 1.64%. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5/13.
Libor update: 0.227% 3 mos.; 0.322% 6 mos., both just off their record lows, set recently: 0.227% and 0.320% respectively! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.08% since 5/22/13 and is 0.07% -0.09%. Foreign bond yields mostly a tad lower: Germany 1.35% -1; UK 2.59% +2; France 1.76% -1; Italy 2.94% -2; Spain 2.82% -3; Portugal 3.63%+3; Greece, which bottomed at 5.83% on 2/24 closed very strong last Friday is now 6.15% -1 – the high on selloff was 6.75%. Highly volatile!!! Range is 5.77% to 12.57%. Japan: 0.58% +1.

Gold closed weak – 4th day – at $1245.60 -$11.50 with a session low of $1247.80 – lowest since 2/3/14!!! Off $35 for the month! This, after hitting $1304.10 on 5/22 – the last time it saw $1300! It is now way below the 40/50/200 days and the psych support level of $1300 with first res at the 40 day $1293, then the 50 day $1294, and the 200 day $1298 – together they pose formidable res. It has fared poorly since the ‘key reversal’ on 3/17, after printing the recent high of $1392.60, highest high since 9/4/13! Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Overnight it traded down to $1240.90! – lowest since Jan. 31 and is currently $1247.00 +$1.40.

Crude closed slightly lower at $102.71 -.87 with a low of $102.40, lowest since 5/20. Friday’s high was $104.50 – still highest since being slammed on 4/22! 3/2’s session low was $97.37, lowest since 2/4! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. It remains well above all three moving averages with support at the 40 day ($102.03) then the 50 day ($101.66), and 200 day $100.29. The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is little changed in a narrow range ($102.70-103.35),and is currently $102.76 +.05.

Global equity markets higher – Japan and India strong; Hong Kong closed: UK -0.1% vs +0.3% vs +0.1% vs +0.5% vs -0.2%; France – vs -0.4% vs -0.2% vs +0.1% vs –; Germany +0.2% vs – vs -0.1% vs +0.1% vs +0.4%; Japan +2.1%!!! vs -0.3% vs +0.1% vs +0.2% vs +0.2%; Hang Seng closed vs +0.3% vs -0.3% vs +0.6% vs -0.1%; Korea +0.4% vs -0.9% vs -0.2% vs +1%! vs -0.6% vs +0.1%; India +1.9%!!! vs -0.1% vs -1.3%! vs – vs -0.7% vs +1.3%!. U.S. Stock Index Futures slightly higher in another narrow range session: DOW +17 (range 33); SPX +1.20 (4); NDQ +2 (10).
Some random thoughts:

…today is not about TB blowing his horn but how more and more recognized people are coming out of the woodwork about the sad state of our government and the wealth gap (they go together):

– How many times has TB blasted Walmart? Also, comparing it to the employee-friendly Costco: here is a link that explains it well: Costco vs Walmart

– Yesterday on Moyers & Company, Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz talked about our ridiculous tax system that not only benefits the top 1% but encourages companies to shift operations abroad and not repatriate dollars. He cites this as the leading cause of the wealth gap. You can go to the website Moyers/Stiglitz …or read his white paper at: Joseph Stiglitz on taxes and wealth gap

– Another new book: Austerity, by Florian Schui, discusses how dramatically cutting spending, from welfare to infrastructure not only negatively impacts the economy but by widening the wealth gap and making more people feel ‘left out’ it invites violent change…either a revolution in emerging market economies, or a peaceful but dramatic change in the government (the rise to power and election of Adolph Hitler in post-WWI Germany. TB has repeatedly pointed this out saying, ”all it requires is a strong leader.” Obama promised change and all we got was more of the same…as he lacks vision. Note that Hitler went from a ‘joke’ in the 1920’s to lead the way!

What is incredible to TB is how the rank and file of the GOP – mostly white, middle-class continue to do the bidding of the top 1%…what is in it for them? They are like frogs in the kettle of water slowly being heated…and they can’t see…or feel…it This from a former Republican!

The topic du jour on the Sunday talk shows was of course the release of the U.S. soldier. All lauded it (on humanitarian grounds – whether or not they believed that), but most went on to say negotiating with terrorists will merely lead to more hostage taking – and was ‘unprecedented’ by any nation. Really? One panelist asked if there was a difference then between Israel negotiating prisoner exchanges with the Palestinians? Of course, it should be done under the proper circumstances. Meanwhile, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz made another of his evangelical speeches as the all-knowing person…the highlight was saying the Democrats are trying to politicize everything – of course they are, Ted….but who is the best at it? The GOP and YOU!!!

Susan Rice should have learned by now to either look at caller ID before answering the phone on a weekend. Once again she overstated the case saying Bergdahl was ‘captured on the battlefield’. Nyet! He apparently ‘walked off the base’ and was then captured…was it a mental defect?…PTSD?…time will tell….always does…

As for the exchange: that had to be the worst piece of negotiation on record. It shouldn’t even be billed as that: five senior Al Quiada leaders – their draft picks – for one enlisted man. Had this gone before Congress as required by law (although it would have gone nowhere under any cirscumstances), it would have drawn a balk! …and rightly so. This is not over.

Lastly, on Edward Snowden, finally an informed and responsible comment (as opposed to Sec. of State Kerry labeling him ‘a traitor and a coward’ – this from a man who himself defied authority after serving honorably in Viet Nam). The comment came from former CIA chief Michael Hayden who, when asked if he was a patriot or a traitor, said he didn’t know if he was a traitor and he certainly wasn’t a patriot but he would merely label him a ‘defector’ for now. The right call to TB!

That’s enough for now…have a great week! Don’t take any wooden nickels…er…Bitcoins! Also, it would be wise to not invest in cannabis related stocks!

TB

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5/23/14…a Memorial Day to Reflect…Please do!

May 23, 2014 at 8:23 am · Filed under banking, economy, financial, healthcare, markets ·Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “I like long walks, especially when they are taken by people who annoy me.” – Fred Allen…a dry, very funny ‘50’s comedian

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “If life doesn’t offer a game worth playing, then invent a new one.” – Anthony J. D’Angelo…WS already did: it’s called ‘sucker the investor.’

Bloomberg Top Stories:
*German Business Confidence Drops More Than Forecast as Economy Seen Slower
*Barclay’s $44 Million U.K. Gold Fixing Fine Hurts Rehabilitation Efforts – good, not enough!
*Euro Weakens as German Confidence Falls; Spanish, Italian Bonds Advance – Achtung!
*Spain Reaps the Reward of Economic Growth While Italy’s Yield Gap Widens
*Hacking Indictment Hints at Chinese Companies That Benefited From Attacks – good luck!
*BNP Paribas Rebound Wagers Surge as Clarity Emerges on Size of U.S. Fines
*Reynolds Is Said to Weigh Lorillard Purchase Amid Months of Negotiations
*Morgan Stanley’s London Equities Team of Four Led by Mackay Said to Leave
*Noble Returns to London Liquified Gas Trading as U.S. Shale Adds Volume – flare it!
*Ukraine, EU Elections, U.S. GDP, Pfizer Deadline – all to look forward to next week
*Golf Industry Stuck in Sand Trap as Thousands of Americans Leave the Sport- ever been to Myrtle Beach, S.C.? 21 championship courses BUT FORTY-NINE miniature golf locations! Fact!
*Putin’s Black Sea Singapore Dream Leaves Crimeans Without Banks or Burgers – cringing?
*Putin Says Russia Will Work With Elected President of Ukraine After Vote
*Thai Coup Risks Deadly Clashes as Thaksin Camp Is Seen as Better Organized
*Obama to Unveil San Antonio Mayor Castro as Choice for Housing Secretary
*Russia Threatens to Counter NATO Buildup on Its Borders as Rivalry Continues – not good!
*Congress Spurns Pentagon Cost Reductions Cuts From A-a0 to Base Closures – this is sick! The GOP can find NO cuts in defense…it’s a sieve for money run by more oligarchs!
*Scottish Nuclear Subs Show Independence Risks More Than Just U.K. Economy – in kilts?

Thursday’s Market Summary:

First off, today will be an early close for bonds (we always get the breaks, right?), which means it will be probably closed by the time you read this…so you can devote the rest of your day to stocks….you know…the things that really matter (joke!).
Ah a nice rally…didn’t you think? Oops, that was Wednesday…yesterday all indices ere up but the winner was the Russell 2000 +0.9%, followed by DOW UTILITIES!!! +0.8%, the rest were up from 0.2% (S&P 500) to 0.6% (Nasdaq Composite) followed by Dow Transports +0.5%. Let’s see what did we forget? Oh, yeah,,,the Dow which was up 1% Wednesday followed up with a puny 0.1% gain! Does anything have traction here?…besides Utilities and other income producing stocks, REITS, and ETF’s? Lemme know if you find the answer.

Total NYSE Volume sure didn’t look like excited (but we are ahead of a long weekend with most not trading tomorrow) declining a bit more to an even weaker 2.74B shares vs 2.77B vs 2.97B vs 2.64B!!! …that’s from 3.18B last Friday (remember it was an options expiration!) from an average 3.53B – on a ‘down’ day! Real trades on the floor of the NYSE stunk slipping further to 577M shares from a very weak 587M and now 147M BELOW the 12-month average! Yesterday;s achieved notoriety by replacing Tuesday’s 584M share day as the second lowest of 2014…1/3’s 544M is the low…note 12/31’s was 568M shares. Worse: since 4/30 the average has been just 663M shares with just two 700M days – one barely! The high this month is 775M while the low is 584M just below yesterday’s! Nice rally, eh???
A/D’s were positive again but meaningless: NYSE +2x vs +2.6x vs -2.4x vs +1.8x vs +2.1x vs -2.3x vs -2.1x; Nasdaq +2.1x vs +1.5x! vs -3.1x vs +2.2x vs +1.5x vs -2.1x vs -2.8x. Breadth was similar: NYSE +1.8x vs +2.6x vs -4.1x! vs +1.6x vs +1.5x vs -4x!!! vs -2.1x; Nasdaq +2.6x vs +2.7x vs -3.1x! vs +3x! vs +1.5x vs -2.5x vs -3.3x. But who cares when the volume is so low? New 52 Week Highs rose but about average at 187 vs 132 vs 111 vs 143 vs 71!!! vs 107 vs 208 vs 233 vs 93!!! New Lows dropped sharply to a weak 62 (never short a thin market) vs 95 vs 118 vs 72 vs 180 vs 102 vs 62 vs 65 vs 214!!!
Lastly volatility…S&P VIX remains bullish…up just .10 to 12.01 with a range of 11.68-12.09 – narrower than Wednesday’s and inside it.

Overnight markets as of 2pm EDT (late!,:

Bonds closed slightly lower for a second day after the nice rally last Monday. Not surprising given the early close ahead of the Memorial Day weekend. The 10 yr closed at 2.55% -3/16 vs 2.53% vs 2.54% vs 2.52%; 30’s 3.42% -1/4 vs 3.41% vs 3.38% vs 3.39% vs 3.35%. The long TIP, as low as 1.00% a week ago, closed 1.09 UP 3/16 vs 1.10% vs 1.08% vs 1.08% vs 1.02%. Overnight and this afternoon weaker again: 10’s 2.56% -1/4; 30’s 3.43% -3/8; and long TIP 1.10% –. Cycle highs: 30 yr high was 3.97% on 12/31; the 10 yr recent high 3.03%! Long TIP was 1.64%. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5/13.
Libor update: 0.229% 3 mos.; 0.324% 6 mos., both just off their record lows, set recently: 0.227% and 0.32% respectively! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.08% since 5/22/13 and is 0.07% -0.09%. Foreign bond market mixed with Italy, Spain and Portugal sharply lower: Germany 1.41% +1; UK 2.65% –; France 1.81 –; Italy 3.16% -8!!!; Spain 2.98%! -6!; Portugal 3.74% -6!; Greece which bottomed at 5.83% on 2/24 still struggling but closed strong yesterday and is now 6.38% -1 vs 6.39% – high was 6.75%. Highly volatile!!! Range is 5.77% to 12.57%. Japan: 0.58% -1.

Gold closed slightly higher at a meaningless $1295.40 +6.90 with just a blip to $1304.10 in a very narrow range session. This after hitting $1309.20 a week ago. It remains below the 40/50/200 days and the psych support level of $1300 with first res at the 40 day $1297, then the 200 day $1299, and the 50 day $1306. Following the ‘key reversal’ on 3/17 after printing new recent high of $1392.60, highest high since 9/4/13 – which ended in an outside day and nearly a negative key reversal! Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Overnight slightly weaker in a narrow range, now $1291.60 -$3.60 – session low $1289.80.

Crude closed slightly lower at $103.74 -.33 in a very narrow inside session. Weds. high was $104.29 – highest since being slammed on 4/22! 3/2’s session low was $97.37, lowest since 2/4! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. It remains well above all three moving averages with support at the 40 day ($101.69) then the 50 day ($101.21), and 200 day $100.34. The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight, modestly higher at $104.05 +.31, high $104.08.

Global equity markets little changed; India and Japan higher: UK -0.2% vs +0.1% vs -0.5% vs -0.3% vs -0.1%; France +0.1% vs +0.2% vs -0.2% vs +0.1% vs +0.1%; Germany +0.2% -despite weaker economic confidence??? vs +0.5% vs -0.2% vs -0.1% vs -0.3%; Japan +0.9% vs -0.2% vs +0.5% vs -0.6% vs -1.4%! Hang Seng +0.1% vs – vs +0.6% vs – vs -0.1%; Korea +0.1% vs +0.1% vs -0.1% vs +0.1% vs +0.2%; India +1.3%! vs -0.3% vs +0.1% vs +1%! vs +0.9%. U.S. Stock Index Futures boring: DOW +7 (range 23); SPX +1.30 (3!); NDQ +4.25 (7!).
Some random thoughts:

…as a Viet Nam vet TB asks that you think of those who gave their lives…and limbs…and much more for this country that has become so undeserving. TB felt this especially after visiting our nations capitol and noting that the ‘me’ generation is very much alive and well.

Two years ago, TB voted a second time for Barrack Obama, the first because John McCain has even less clout in the GOP than John Boehner does at controlling the dysfunctional House – all his party! Big John sealed the deal with his choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate plus there was a promise of ‘changing how government operates from Obama. Nevermind that they didn’t have a clue how they were going to change it (per Lawrence Lessig), nor did they attempt to do so. The last time as there was NO choice…not when Mitt Romney proposed ‘changes’ to make the country even more ‘oligarchial’ – a concern of some of his fellow Mormons who feared a backlash if he didn’t do a good job of running the country.

George W. Bush…and the ‘acting’ president, Dick Cheney, along with Donald Rumsfeld did more to deprive Americans of their rights than any other president in our history. Watch Frontline’s two-part series The United States of Secrets, part two is the most important as it opens with a summary of the first part. The point is the Snowden is no more a traitor than Daniel Ellsberg was (although TB thought he was at the time), in releasing the Pentagon Papers which shed light on the government’s lies about the Viet Nam war (note Ellsberg said that Snowden was right to flee the country – as opposed to the joint leaders of the Intelligence (sic) Committee, Rep. Rogers (R) and Sen. Feinstein (D), who believed everything that Gen. Clapper (watch the movements of him in his testimony and you decide if he was lying – a fact he later said in a memo to the committee! Of course, no perjury charges for him).

Obama not only failed to change government but he changed the level of the cabinet with people second-guessing those in charge and influencing Obama. He promised to end the spying, and to shutdown Guantanamo…instead he bolstered both.

He speaks passionately about everything but we have come to know that it goes no further than that. He drew a line in the sand on Syria…then what? Iran? He was right in his handling of Libya and is being crucified in yet another politically-motivated ‘investigation’ of Benghazi. The truth? They don’t want the truth…just to humiliate…just as the House has voted over 50 times to end Obamacare. A wasted of time, resources, and creating even more angst among both parties and the public. Stuff happens! Also, the Ambassador was warned not to go to Benghazi and there were ten CIA operatives with him…of which two were casualties. Let’s be honest!

We hear a lot about what his legacy will be. To be sure, the ACA is a step in the right direction but the wrong step…it does nothing to control costs of care or drugs…especially drugs which he sold out to the Pharma lobby on. But so far that is the only legacy TB see…a ‘half-vast’ one (some might say half-assed). How sad that the misguided Occupy Wall Street movement (sic) was the only attempt by anyone at Wall Street accountability (the name itself is a negative…TB proposed Reform Corporate America (RCA) – and Congress. Too bad all those people who have written excellent books on the crisis can’t band together and strike boldly at Congress in unison. Is that too much to ask? Apparently, so…individually, it is divide and conquer…and it is working!

It is time for us to demand Congress represent WE, the people and not the oligarchs of Wall Street, the defense industry and over the well-being of Main Street. Our ‘free’ government has become a sham…a mockery and one which lowers us in the eyes of the rest of the world.

Will change come? Of course it will…but will it be too late for the government and country as we know it. If that comes to pass it will be a very sad Memorial Day for us all…especially the future generations.

Disagree? That is your right…and TB does not expect or wish you to simply agree with him. But he does hope you will think and act responsibly and do the right thing. Nothing is not an option.

Have a wonderful but reflective Memorial Day weekend,

TB

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5/15/14…if you don’t like Cheney you will less after this! Creep not VEEP!

May 15, 2014 at 9:10 am · Filed under financial, markets ·Tagged , , , ,

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “Baseball’s been called the national pastime. It’s just the kind of game someone deserves who has nothing better to do than try to pass his time.” – Andy Rooney

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “I had all the disadvantages required for success.”
– Larry Ellison…and one VERY BIG EGO!!! Mr.A.H.

Bloomberg Top Stories
*U.S. Stocks Fall for Second Day as Wal-Mart Misses, Factory Output Tumbles – see Walton’s if you paid your employees a LIVING WAGE you would have higher sales AND earnings ! Idiots!
*Industrial Output in U.S. Unexpectedly Shrinks, Led by Plunge at Utilities – duh Winter is kaput!
*Consumer Prices in U.S. Rise by Most in 10 Months After Weak First Quarter – well I’’ be…
*Appaloosa’s Tepper Says Investors Should Hold Cash With Markets Dangerous – so does TB!
*Russian Holdings of U.S. Treasuries Decline 20% to Lowest Level Since 2008 – THINK!
*U.S. May Philadelphia Fed Index Falls to 15.4 from 16.6, Topping Estimate – ?
*Nickel Plunges by Most in More Than Two Years in Reversal of Metal’s Rally
*France Fortifies Tool to Thwart Foreign Takeovers as GE-Siemens Eye Alstrom
*Nice Proves Tough Sell in Nebraska as State Ads Battle for Tourist Trade
*Ukraine Pushes On With Eastern Offensive After Russia Warns on Election
*Turkey Unions Strike After Nation’s Worst Mine Accident Kills at Least 282
*Obama Joining Families of Sept/ 11 Victims to Dedicate Museum in New York

Wednesday’s Market Summary and more changes since 4/23:

Hey, bulls…you rock!!!! NOT!!! As those of you who read this may have discerned, TB is concerned about setting new record highs on ridiculously low volume…and barely setting them at that. Not that that concerns the talking heads on CNBC of course…or the fact that the p/e of the S&P 500 is 17.4x…and forget that Ibbotson and Peter Lynch crap that ‘over any 20 year period’ you wouldn’t have lost money in stocks…pure unadulterated bullshit! But don’t take TB’s word for it…go to http://www.crestmontresearch.com and there you will find tables of returns, inflation adjusted returns and after tax returns of the S&P 500 that go back 110 years…set up like a matrix so you can see the returns between any two years…and guess what? If the p/e is above 13x the returns don’t come up green…just a thought…but a useful one!

Total NYSE Volume dropped even further yesterday to 2.81B shares…vs 2.86B vs 2.98B vs 3B vs 3.37B vs 3.6B – that was the last time we had ‘above’ average volume which is about 3.5B shares. Worse…even this is due to high freaks playing games with your money! Here’s why: shares traded on the NYSE floor are roughly 20% of total volume thanks to those ‘should be illegal’ electronic trading networks (ETN’s). Yesterday’s volume was just 620M shares or about 105M shares BELOW the 12-month average. Since 5/4 the average is just 661M shares with only one day registering more than 700M shares (April 30th’s 908M – monthend!). Since 3/31’s (quarterend) 2.0B shares and one of the highest ever there have been exactly FIVE 800M share days and just that one 908M share day on 4/30. Now look at this: every day trades ‘at the close’ ran 50M shares with 50-100M posted after the close…that is pathetic! – yesterday it was 120M shares!!! HELLO???…suckers! Where the F@#% is the SEC? Wake up Congress…oh, sorry you are but your ‘boss’ says look the other way…and you do!!! A.H.’s!!!

A/D’s had one good day in the last two weeks: Monday…but look: NYSE -2.1x vs -1.2x vs +3.7x; Nasdaq -2.8x vs -1.9x vs +3.7x. Breadth, you ask: NYSE -2.1x vs -1.1x vs +5.2x; Nasdaq -3.3x vs -1.3x vs 5.3x. Oh, wait…there’s more: New 52 Week Highs: vs 208 vs 233 vs 93!!! Now look at New Lows: 102 vs 62 vs 65 vs 214!!! THIS on record highs in the S&P and Dow??? Get real!!!
Oh and on Tuesday the Dow eked out a new record high of 16735…the old one set on 4/4 was 16631 before plunging to 16015 (-4.4%) on 4/11…just SIX days later; S&P was even worse…1902 vs 1897 with the same drop as the Dow to 1814 (-4.4%). The Nasdaq Comp peaked on 3/6 and is off 6.2% since then…the 100 -3.9%. Dow Transports are the only one doing well and had a new high yesterday and still held above the old one but look vulnerable. How about the Russell 2000 small cap – a proxy for broad economic strength vs earnings -peaked on March 4 at 1213 and is now 1103 (-9.1%!!!)As for the winner year to date, Dow Utilities, they peaked on 4/30 and are off 3.6% since then but still positive for the month and quarter.
Now volatility…S&P VIX has been bullish…fell to 12.13 Tuesday, and then up to just 12.17 yesterday…this after gapping down on the open Monday…it is at the lowest since January 17th..but look: it rose then from 12.28 with an 11.88 low! To 21.48 on Feb. 3rd!!! +75%!!! AND it gapped up twice along the way! Then on 4/4 (the highs cited above) it bottomed out again at 13.96 with a 12.60 low and back to 17.03 (high 17.85!) on 4/11 (+22%!!!). Still bullish? If you are you can buy CHEAP puts as a hedge now…and might be smart to do so!!! If history repeats…

Here are the latest ytd’s: Dow +0.2%; Trans +5.9%!; Dow Utilities +9.7%!!!; S&P 500 +2.2%; Nasdaq Comp -1.8%!; NDQ 100 FLAT; Russell 2000 -5.2%!!! (remember this one is supposed to be closest to broad economic growth…got it?). Not commenting much on Financials since TB’s return as they are screwy with the index showing minor changes vs brokers/banks which doesn’t make sense: NYSE Financials -0.3% ytd; KBW Banks -2.3%!?!; Nasdaq Banks -5.8%…guess they weren’t fooled by those ‘special’ dividends…no sir!

…it’s a jungle out there! Still bullish? Then you didn’t read the Bloomberg headlines above!

Overnight Comments:

Bonds had a STRONG session yesterday with the long end up over a point and strong again overnight!!! So much for Monday’s ‘blip’ up. Yield changes from Monday’s close, price was yesterday: the 10 yr closed at 2.54% +9/16 vs 2.66%; 30’s 3.38% +1-5/16! vs 3.50%. The long TIP was as low as 1.05% on 5/2, rose to 1.19% Monday and closed at 1.06% +2 points!!! Overnight strong again: 10’s 2.51% +1/4; 30’s 3.33% +15/16; and long TIP 1.01%!!! +1-7/16. Cycle highs: 30 yr high was 3.97% on 12/31; the 10 yr recent high 3.03%! Long TIP was 1.64%. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5/13.
Libor update: 0.227% 3 mos.; 0.324% 6 mos., both just off their record lows, set in past week: 0.222% and 0.320% respectively! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.08% since 5/22/13 and is 0.07% -0.09%. Foreign bond market yields mixed with weaker credits highe after the recent decline…especially Greece!!! Germany 1.33% -3; UK 2.57% -2; France 1.79%! -3; Italy 2.99% +8; Spain 2.91% +6; Portugal 3.60% +11!!!; Greece was coming back from a rough period after hitting 5.83% on 2/24 then rising to 6.33% on 4/28, but look: 6.62%!!! +44!!! vs 6.16%. Range is 5.77% to 12.57%. Japan: 0.59 –.

Gold closed higher after hitting $1309.20 closing at $1305.90 +$11.10….but looks like ‘Memorex’ to TB. It closed above the 40/200 days (locked at $1301), but slightly below the 50 day ($1312…which is above yesterday’s high).remains below all three moving averages and the psych support level of $1300 with first res at the 200 day $1301, then the 40 day $1302, and the 50 day $1313 – following the ‘key reversal’ on 3/17 after printing new recent high of $1392.60, highest high since 9/4/13 – that ended in an outside day and nearly a negative key reversal! Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Overnight it is WEAK failing to hold the 40/200 and the psychological $1300 at $1296.70 -$9.20 with a low of $1290.90!.

Crude closed higher at $102.37 +.67 with a session high of $102.65 – back to where it was when TB left on 4/23. 3/2’s session low was $97.37, lowest since 2/4! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. It is back above all three moving averages having taken out $102.20, the 4/29 high and support at the 40 day ($101.33) then the 50 day ($100.97), and 200 day $100.43. The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is giving back most of the gains: $101.90 -.47 with a high of $102.26 and low of $101.74.

European equity markets slightly lower, Asia mixed: UK — vs -0.2% vs +0.1%; France -0.2% vs -0.1% vs +0.3%; Germany – vs -0.1% vs +0.6%; Japan -0.8% vs -0.1% vs +2%!!! Hang Seng +0.7% vs +1%!!! vs +0.4%; Korea – vs +10.4% vs +0.9%; India +0.4% vs -0.2% vs +1.4%! U.S. equity futures lower – range widening: DOW -33 (range 66 vs 31); S&P -4 (7); NDQ -4 (17).

Some random thoughts:

…a sad commentary…you have to watch FRONTLINE’s The United States of Secrecy which aired Tuesday night. You might end with a different opinion of Snowden…TB certainly did…not quite a hero but the only way he could ‘blow the whistle’ – sick…Dubya didn’t have a clue…Cheney and his lawyer in full control…supported by Andy Card. The worst breach of constitutional rights since the internment camps in WWII. Sadly, Obama ‘the champion of change’ has been anything but…in fact he has made it worse! …along with his henchman Eric Holder who chases windmills (leakers who weren’t) instead of Wall Street criminals. TB was sickened!…and there is another part coming. Someone had a lot of guts…watch it and you decide who the traitors were…and you won’t come up with Snowden! Cheney! Haden! …and more!!!
Leaving D.C. we drove to Falling Waters, Frank Lloyd Wright’s signature home…out in the middle of nowhere but well worth the excursion! The falls were running huge due to the rains and runoff. Spectacular! Spent the night at a casino on Wheeling Island, W.Va. Don’t see the attraction.

The next day drove through Canton, Ohio and past the Pro Football Hall of Fame…one of the ugliest edifices TB has ever seen…pass! Then to Cleveland and a most worthwhile stop at the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame…building, setting, and exhibits are incredible!!! A must see!

Then to Flint, Mich with a stop at Ann Arbor to see the campus and the huge stadium. Flint was a client of TB’s 11 years ago and it was rock bottom then…coming back…but selectively. They still have fires every night…arson, as it is the only way to sell a home in a poor area…the Flint Country Club…once almost exclusively GM execs is now the Flint Golf Course…beautiful too. When TB was there last there was a sign: memberships $5,000 – payable over TEN years! Says a lot, no? The once boarded up GM building is now partially filled and the downtown is revitalized…all ready for the growth which continues to escape them. Sad, as they are bankrupt and being run by the state but they did everything right…but the money was wasted as nobody came. Stayed there at the Holiday Inn…new when I was there last and still beautifull…the nicest HI I have ever stayed in…a great steakhouse/brew pub right across the street too!

Next we drove to Traverse City which one could easily confuse with South Lake Tahoe…many more big, nice resorts replacing the two-story motels when TB was there last…then up the lakeshore along Traverse Bay to Potoskey, the Michigan ‘gold coast’ – WOW! I was impressed before but it is now filled with an incredible complex of country clubs of every sort besides the beautiful riding academy I saw when there last time. This is where Madonna is from, fyi.
Spent the night in Mackinaw City…by the bridge that ‘couldn’t be built’ a spitting image of the Golden Gate and 5-1/2 miles long! It was the first bridge there and completed in 1957…they drove across the ice in winter before that! It was still cold so many places were still closed, especially on Mackinac Island so we didn’t go there.

The last day was a drive across the bridge and down Michigan’s Upper Peninsula in the only significant rain we had on the trip!!! About a half day but not torrential…then home that evening. An incredible 19 day trip…lucky on weather and especially on traffic…nice between seasons!

Oh, the 3500 mile trip cost us $350 or ten cents a mile…plus 17 cents for gas…27 cents total!
Highly recommend flying to Florida – from anywhere – in mid-April – rent a car which saves them the cost of ferrying them out of there and no drop-off charges…a great secret!!! Use it!!!

Another nice day in Minnesota…that makes two in a row!!!!

Have a really nice day!

TB

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1/10/14…no mojo in market so ignore payrolls – December, stupid!

January 10, 2014 at 10:03 am · Filed under banking, economy, financial, markets ·Tagged , , , ,

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “Imitation is the sincerest form of television.” – Fred Allen, and “you can always tell when television executives are in a restaurant: they keep ordering and cancelling, ordering, and cancelling.”–Bob Hope 

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Design is not just what it looks and feels like. Design is how it works.” – Steve Jobs

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls rose by a weak 74k in December vs consensus 197k, smallest gain since January 2011!!! (on CNBC, a forecaster who consults to stores said that is is normally 1/3 of November due to just 12 hiring days, even flopped there). November was revised UP to 241k vs 203k, October unchanged. Private payrolls rose by 8k while government SHRUNK by 13k – still think we should leave it to the private sector? Factory Jobs rose by 9k, Construction FELL by 16k! Also, 273k were not working in December due to weather – most since 1977 doesn’t bode well for GDP, right?  

The Unemployment Rate declined to 6.68% vs 7.02% – simmer down! The Labor Participation rate plunged again to 62.8% – yet another multi-decade low…the FED is going to be concerned…as should you! For all of 2013 unemployment averaged 7.4%, lowest since 2008 – that’s the ‘good news’ bad news is that it is a meaningless number now that the GOP has chopped emergency unemployment from the rolls – FOOLS, and that didn’t show up in December because it happened well after the cutoff date! Capiche? What was the ‘underemployment’ rate: 13.1%! Something to be proud of? No, ashamed! Average hourly earning rose a puny 1.8% in Dec. from a year ago – get it?DECEMBER average hourly earnings? +0.1%! Criminal while CEO’s enrich themselves! Also, the household measure of jobs rose by 143,000 – remember you don’t have to be paid to count in this number…just say you worked for even an hour a week!   

Market Reaction: stock futures were up, then plunged to negative on the news, quickly recovered (most likely due to the faux unemployment rate),then when market opened have been volatile but the Dow has remained positive and is now up 19; Transports strong ? – up 46 points. Bonds were up slightly before the reports then rallied as they understand that the unemployment rate is meaningless blather…it is the underemployment rate at 13.1% that concerns them…and no need to. Long end is up ¾ and steady!! Gold rallied sharply and is up $11, while Crude is up but coming off the low since 5/2/12! Dollar little changed except Yen is stronger coming off that recent low. Suckers market!!!  

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Payrolls in U.S. Rise Less Than Forecast While Jobless Rate Drops to 6.7%(SCAM!)

*Target Says Personal Details of up to 70 Million Customers May Be Stolen – EGADS!

*Treasuries Gain With S&P 500 Futures (?) as U.S. Unemployment Growth SLOWS!

*Bankers’ Warnings Are Heeded as Regulators Poised to Dilute Leverage Ratio – this will create another financial crisis…do you still doubt the banks are in charge???

*Ignore Wall Street’s Banks Is Skagen Advice on Emerging Market Bets – he says buy

*New York Probes Brokerages to Analysts After BlackRock Survey Settlement UGH!!!

*VW Is Planning to Build New SUV in Tennessee to Revive U.S. Expansion

*Julian Rifat Is Said to Face Charges in Biggest U.K. Insider-Trading Probe – !!!

*U.S. Jobs Report Often Seems to Be a Rorschach Test for Nerds – do tell i.e. today!

*Christies’ Handling of Crisis Fualted for ‘Bully’ Quote that Evokes Nixon – fool!

*Obama Fast-Track Trade Agenda Risked by Opposition From Labor-State Levin

*Indian Diplomat Leaves U.S. After Visa Fraud Charges That Fueled Tensions

*Water Worries Lead Texas Homeowners to Fault EPA over Use of Driller Data

 

Thursday’s Market Summary:

A second straight mixed session ahead of December payrolls. NYSE Volume was slightly lower at 3.56B shares, slightly less than Wednesday’s 3.63B shares – highest since December 20th Real NYSE Volume slipped to a slightly below average 697M shares vs 759M – not only highest but first time above 700M since 12/20! Dow Transports rose 1% for honors followed by the usually ‘weak’ Dow Utilities +0.7%. Dow -0.1%: S&P 500 flat, the two Nasdaq’s both slightly weak and offsetting Wednesday’s puny gains. The Russell 2000 was up just 0.1% as were NYSE Financials – carried by the KBW banks and led by BofA for a second straight session …if that makes sense to you…

Apple continues to trade ‘psychotically’ losing nearly 1.32% and offsetting Wednesday’s 0.6% gain vs -0.6% vs +0.8% vs -2.2% vs -2.4%. Why the interest in Apple? Because it is a significant part of the two Nasdaq’s (especially the 100) and the S&P 500, weighting unavailable.

Advance/Declines were narrow and mixed while Breadth were slightly negative/ The VIX  was parallel to Wednesday and closed ever so slightly higher at 12.89 +.02, but the range was 12.83-13.26 – slightly ‘outside’ but essentially identical. Today???

The Nasdaq 100 lost 15 points (5.6 from Apple) vs +10  vs +31 vs -12 vs -25 vs -28 vs +22. Breadth was slightly negative. EIGHT members lost more than one index point, while four gained more than a point: APPL -5.6!!! vs +2.7 vs -3 vs +4.4 vs -9.7!!! vs -6.4! vs +5.3! vs -2.6 vs -3 vs -2; GOOG -2.7; BBBY -1.9; MSFT -1.7 vs -4.8!!! vs +1.9 vs -5.6! vs -1.9 vs -2 vs +1; FB -1.7; BIDU -1.5; FOXA -1.2; CSCO -1;  AMGN +2; COST +1.7; GILD +1.1 vs +0.9; ESRN +1.

Dow 30 -0.1% vs 0.4% vs +0.6% vs -0.3% vs +0.2%; Dow Transports +1% vs +0.3% vs +0.7% vs -1.3%! vs +0.5%; Russell 2000 +0.1% vs – vs +0.9% vs -0.8% vs +0.5%; Dow Utilities +0.7% vs -0.5% vs +0.8% vs +0.2% vs -0.3%; S&P 500 – vs — vs +0.6% vs -0.3% vs –; Nasdaq Composite -0.2% vs +0.3% vs +1% vs –0.4% vs -0.3%; NDQ 100 -0.4% vs +0.3% vs +0.9% vs -0.3% vs -0.7%.

*NYSE Volume was slightly lower at a still above average 3.56M shares vs 3.63B vs 3.48B vs 3.23B vs 2.76B vs 3.06B vs 2.3B vs 2.27B vs 2.04B. The record high (?) is the 4.97B shares of 12/20/13 and Q3 end of quarter while 11/29’s 1.59B is weakest of 2013). REAL NYSE Volume slipped to a slightly below average 697M shares vs 759M vs 699M vs 669M vs 544M vs 624M vs 568M vs 462M vs 424M, from the new 12-month low of 272M. The average since 12/20 is just 562M shares with a high of 759M! The 12 month is 719M shares. Last year there were just TEN 1B+ share sessions! There were 39 800M+ shares in 2013: 18 up, 19 down, three mixed.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 33-864. They rose again to 435 vs 355 vs 316 vs 271 vs 217 vs 201! Recent high is a super-strong 890!!! New lows were slightly higher at a weak 44 vs 30 vs 20 vs 30 vs 23 vs 43 vs 78 vs 72 vs 76 vs  60 vs 44 vs 68 vs 81 vs 127 vs 131. Recent high is 353; low 20!!!  

  1. Advance/Declines were narrow and mixed: +1.1x vs -1.3x vs +1.9x vs -1.2x vs +1.8x (recent range -17.5x to +6x) on NYSE and -1.1x vs -1.1x vs +2.3x vs -1.7x vs +1.6x (recent -4x!!! to +3.8x). Breadth was slightly negative: -1.03x vs +1.04x vs +1.5x vs -1.3x vs +1.2x (recent -18.6x!!! to +7.2x!!!) on NYSE and -1.2x vs +1.4x vs +3.8x!!! vs +1.1x vs +1.2x (recent -12.8x to +6.5x).  
  2. NYSE Financials +0.1% vs +0.4% vs +0.4% vs +0.1% vs +0.5%; BofA most active – per usual and strong: +1.5%!?! vs +0.4% vs -1% vs +1.5%??? vs +1.9%???, closing at $16.83 +.25. Brokers – vs -0.4% vs +0.7% vs -0.4% vs +0.6% vs -0.4% vs +1.2%!; KBW Banks +0.7% vs +0.8% vs +0.4% vs +0.4% vs +0.8% vs -0.5% ; Nasdaq Banks +0.4% vs — vs +0.5% vs -0.7% vs +0.2% vs -1.3%!!!
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) rose infinitesimally for the first time in five sessions but remains below the 40/50 day (13.62/13.56) and well below the 200 day (14.40), closing at 12.89 +.02. 12/26’s (TB’s birthday) 11.69 was lowest since 3/15/13!!! Recent high on 1/2 was 16.67! The recent range is 11.83-21.01!!! It peaked at 22.79 on 12/28/12…ytd the range is 11.05 (3/14) to 21.92 (6/24)!

Bonds were a little higher BUT led by the long TIP which gained a point to close at 1.44% – what’s with TIPS with no inflation factor. Bonds were slightly better overnight but rallied on the payrolls weakness: 30 yr 3.84 +13/16; the 10 yr 2.90% +1/2, recent high 3.03%! Long TIP 1.41% +3/4!?! The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5. The recent high yield: 1.64%! Libor update: 0.242% 3 mos,0.344% 6 mos. BOTH at the new record lows 0.240%!!! and 0.344% respectively!). Foreign bond yields lower across the board: Germany 1.6% -6!!!; UK 2.90% -8!!!! recent high 3.03%!; France 2.52% -5!!!; Italy 3.90% -3; Spain 3.80% +1; Portugal 5.33% -1; Greece 7.51%!!! -4. Recent range NOW: 7.51%-12.57%. Japan …0.69% +1. Yen slightly better at 104.60…1/3’s 105.44 weakest since 10/1/08!!!

Gold had a very narrow ‘inside’ session and closed at $122*.40 +$4.10, following Monday’s ‘outside day’ which had a high of $1247.70, highest since 12/16. Jan. 2’s low of $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!!  Recent high is $1375.40 back on 9/19. $1200 is sup while $1300 is psychological resistance with major res at the 40 day ($1237!) and the 50 day ($1253!). The 200 day is $1341. Overnight it is rallying, post payrolls at $1240.5070 +$11.16 – session high $1245!

Crude crushed again falling to $91.24 – lowest since 5/2/12!!! – before a dead cat bounce took it back to $91.66 -.66!!! close at $92.33 – talk about a ‘bad day at Black Rock! Down and downer? Note 12/27 was first time above $100 since 10/21! On 11/27 it printed a new low of $91.77, lowest since 6/3!!! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. It is way below the three key m/a’s which are now major res: 40 day m/a ($95.86!!!), 50 day (95.74!), and the 200 day ($99.01!!!) – the 40/50 still falling and all major resistance! 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is up but meaninglessly to $92..98 +$1.32 with a high following payrolls of $93.38.

Overnight markets (post payrolls):  

European equity markets STRONG, Asia not so much, Korea remains weak: UK +0.9% vs +0.1% vs -0.4% vs +0.5% vs +0.1%; France +0.8% vs – vs -0.1% vs +0.4% vs -0.1%; Germany +0.8% vs +0.2% vs -0.1% vs +0.6% vs +0.1%; Japan +0.2% vs -1.5% vs +1.9% vs -0.6% vs -2.4%; Hang Seng +0.3% vs -0.9% vs +1.3% vs +0.1% vs -0.6% vs -2.2%!!!; Korea -0.4% vs -0.7% vs flat vs +0.3% vs +0.4% vs -1.1%! vs-2.2%!!!India +0.2% vs -0.1% vs +0.2% vs -0.5% vs -0.3% vs -0.2% vs -1.2%! U.S. stock futures were pretty strong then plummeted to losses before rebounding to a slight gain…caution: DOW +20 from +68 (range 82); SPX +3.30 from +9 (13); NDQ +7.50 from +25! (33).

 

Some random thoughts:

The Wolf of Wall Street redux: NPR interviewed Leonardo DeCaprio this morning. He did not feel the movie glorified Belfort and said he really likes the guy! Now do you believe TB that there will be college kids dying to get into this ‘fun’ business. It makes TB sick! DeCaprio you damnable fool!

Chris Christie may have shot himself in the foot…we still don’t know but even if he jested to his staff…which he is wont to do…he may have caused them to act the way they did. We may never know but as TB said about Jamie Dimon:  ethics start at the top…the only way to get ahead is to do the bosses bidding…or what you perceive that is.

But this is also a very political attack, after all the stakes are high. Remember the IRS scandal? The right succeeded in creating a stir that it was Obama’s fault (as they did with Benghazi) and despite the fact that the Commissioner was checking all PAC filings, since they were predominantly conservative, the smoking gun appeared to be there. Now we know Obama wasn’t involved…and to TB’s way of thinking…thanks to the idiotic and politically motivated Citizens United ruling, someone needs to find out who is behind these PACS. We know…Karl Rove, Koch brothers, and the usual suspects. Even Sandra Day O’Connor was appalled at the ruling. Besides, the negative lies generated to nothing but create disinformation for the electorate to sift through. We should all be ashamed.

So let’s let the dust settle on Christie, and see what emerges…deal?…or no deal?

Have a great weekend!

TB

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8/2/13…Summers-time, and the livin’ ain’t easy…

August 2, 2013 at 8:17 am · Filed under banking, economy, financial, markets, politics ·Tagged , , , , , , , ,

From The Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “Why pay a dollar for a bookmark? Use the dollar FOR a bookmark.” – Fred Stoller

Bloomberg Quotes of the Day: “Wear a smile and have friends; wear a scowl and have wrinkles.” – George Eliot

Personal Income in June rose 0.3% vs estimate 0.4%! Consumer Spending +0.5% in line…but: sustainable???

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls rose by 162,000 in July – smallest increase in four months! The median forecast was for 185k. Also May/June were revised for a loss of 26k jobs (June 188k vs 195k; May 176k vs 195k!). Private payrolls rose by 161k, government by 1k: Factory Jobs +6k; Construction DOWN 6k!

Jobless Rate Falls to 7.4% vs 7.56%, lowest since 12/08! – how did they do it? Participation rate declined by 0.1% to 63.4% (still at a 35 year LOW!) AND 227,000 household jobs were added – believe that? Well: full-time +92k, part-time (no benefits) +174k  – not as good as headlines suggest…got it?

Total unemployed and discouraged workers: 8.3% vs 8.4%; plus marginally attached; 9.1% vs 9.3%; plus part-time for economic reasons 14.3% vs 14.6% – exciting???

Market Reaction: 8:50am EDT: bonds ROARING from off ¼ to up 7/8 on the long end! Stock futures from slightly positive to slightly negative. Dollar weaker; Gold reversed a $23 loss and is now back to up $1! Crude little changed and slightly weaker.

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Summers Leaving Government Post Saw Wealth Surge to $17 Million – Wake up!!!

*Derivatives Probe Finds Banks Manipulated Benchmark at Expense of Retirees – !!!

*Stocks in Europe Advance Before U.S. Payrolls Report as Bonds, Gold Fall

*Fortress to Blackstone Say Now Is Time to Sell Holdings as Markets Rally – !!!

*Tourre’s Conviction Shows Being Junior Goldman Employee Wasn’t a Defense – like: “I vas just following orders.” Achtung!

*Intesa Profit Slides as Recession in Italy Spurs Increase in Its Bad Loans

*RBS Names Ross McEwan CEO as Shares Slide on Decline in Operating Profit

*Viacom Doubles Buyback as Third-Quarter Profit Misses Analyst Estimates – oy vey!

*Banks Replacing Enron as Energy Traders Incite Lawmakers as Abuses Abound – but thankfully we have Sarbanes-Oxley to protect us! If only it would be put to good  use!

*Embassy Closures Ordered by U.S. Predominantly Muslim Country Aug. 4 – Caution!

*Putin Shows Global Player Mojo to Russians as U.S. Fumes Over Snowden Case

*Snowden Asylum Undercuts Obama’s Effort to Reset U.S.-Russia Relationship

Finally after six days a meaningful rally…or was it? …ahead of payrolls however and based on the reports possibly way to optimistic. The VIX declined, A/D’s and Breadth (especially) were positive, but volume was average and although solid declined on real NYSE trades. New 52 week highs more than doubled while new lows were stable at 108 vs 111, solid.

Best performer was Dow Transports…for a third straight session: +3.2%! vs +0.6% vs +0.3% vs -1.1%. All indices except the Dow (+0.8%) were up more than 1% including Utilities +1.0%! The NDQ 100 rose by a whopping 36 points by 95:1 with TEN stocks gaining more than one point led by Google +1 and Apple +3.6 for a total of 19 points!(CMCSA +1.6, SYMC +1.4), and two losing more than one point (AMGN -1.9, FB -1.2 vs +2.2 ). Gimme a break!

The VIX trading range had a lower high and lower low a day after hitting 14.14 with a session low of 12.94, finally settling in at 13.45 +.06. A/D’s were barely positive as was Breadth.

…here’s the book:

* Dow 30 +0.8% vs -0.1% vs flat vs -0.2% vs +0.5% vs +0.1%; Dow Transports +3.3%!!! vs +0.6% vs +0.3% vs -1.1%!!! vs +0.5%; Russell 2000 +1.4%! vs +0.3% vs +0.3% vs -0.8% vs -0.6%; Dow Utilities +1%? vs -0.7% vs +0.3% vs +0.3% vs 0.6%; S&P 500 +1.3% vs flat vs flat vs -0.4% vs +0.1%. Nasdaq Composite +1.4% vs +0.3% vs +0.5% vs -0.4% vs +0.2%; NDQ 100 +1.2% vs +0.2% vs +0.5% vs -0.2% vs +0.5%.

*NYSE Volume was stable at an average 3.78B shares vs 3.81B vs 3.31B vs 2.82B vs 2.74B vs 3.31B vs 3.07B vs 2.42B (3rd weakest of 2013…1.96B is the lowest of 2013). REAL NYSE Volume fell sharply to a solid 798M shares vs 904M vs 678M vs 579M vs 596M (562M is lowest since 7/3). The 12-month average is 717M shares. The average since 6/30 is now 685M shares, ranging from 482M to 906M, 482M being the 2013 low! There have been just SEVEN 1B+ share sessions! There have been 30 800M+ shares in 2013: 12 up, 17 down, and one mixed, but on trades of less than that 92 have been up and 34 down …there have been 29 mixed sessions.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 33-864. They more than doubled to 730 vs 307 vs 257 vs 209 vs 262 vs 410 vs 569. New lows were stable at 108 vs 111 vs 69 vs 76 vs 87 vs 180 vs 60 – 27 is the low.  

  1. Advance/Declines were positive: +1.6x vs +1.1x vs +1.1x vs -2.2x vs -1.1x (recent range -17.5x to +4.4x) on NYSE and +2.6x vs +1.2x vs +1.1x vs -2.2x vs -1.6x (recent -3.5x to +3x). Breadth was even more so: +3.3x vs +1.2x vs -1.1x vs +2.8x vs -1.1x (recent -18.6x!!! to +6.9x!!!) on NYSE and +3.2x! vs +1.1x vs +2.2x? vs -1.6x vs -1.4x vs +2.6x (recent -12.8x to +6.2x)  
  2. NYSE Financials rose for the first time in five sessions by 1.5% vs -0.2% vs -0.3% vs -0.7% vs -0.3%. BofA was most active rising 2.4% with a high of $14.99 and closing at $14.95 +.35 after hitting $15.03 six days ago – highest since Jan. 14 and now major res. Brokers +2%! vs +0.5% vs -0.1% vs -0.9% vs -0.8%; KBW Banks +1.9%! vs +0.5% vs +0.1% vs -0.9% vs -0.7%t; Nasdaq Banks+1.8% vs +0.1% vs flat vs -1%! vs -0.5%.  
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) declined from 13.45 to 12.94 -.51 with a tight and lower range of 12.82-13.25 with Tuesday’s high being 14.14!!!  On 7/23 it declined to 12.07, lowest since April 12th! VIX peaked at 20.49, plunged to 18.90 on June options expiry then closed at 20.11 on 6/24 and has been down below 14 since! 6/24’s session high of 21.91 was highest since 12/31/12 (22.72)!!! The range since April ‘12 is 11.05 (multi-year low o n 3/14/13) to 21.9. It is well below the 40/50 day (15.65/15.34) and the 200 day (14.95)!!!…ytd the range is 11.05 (3/14) to 21.92 (6/24)!

Global stocks were up ahead of U.S. payrolls, Europe giving it back, Japan strong: UK -0.2% vs +0.1% vs +0.7% vs +0.3% vs +0.3%; France flat vs +0.5% vs -0.4% vs +0.5% vs +0.3%; Germany +0.1% vs +1.2% vs -0.4% vs +0.4% vs +0.3%; Japan +3.3%!!! vs +2.5%!!! vs -1.5%! vs +1.5%! vs -3.3%!!! vs -3%!!! vs -1.1%!;  Hang Seng +0.5% vs +0.9% vs -0.3% vs +0.5% vs -0.5%; Korea +0.1% vs +0.4% vs -0.2% vs +0.9% vs -0.6%; India DOWN 0.8% vs -0.2% vs flat vs -1.3%!!! vs -0.8% vs -0.3% vs -1.4% vs -1%. U.S. equity futures slightly higher with Dow in a range of just 19 points!: DOW +19; SPX +2.20; NDQ +10 – range FIVE points!

Bonds were destroyed with losses of as much as two points and are weak again overnight ahead of payrolls – the long bond has broken out of the trading range : 10 yr Treasury 2.74% -1/4 (recent range 2.74% to 1.63%!!!), and the 30 yr range of 2.82% to 3.77%, WAS 3.71%, currently 3.77% -1/4. The long TIP is 1.39% -1/4. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5. Recent high 1.53%! Libor update: 0.267% 3 mos, 0.397% 6 mos. Both remain near the Jan. 2010 record lows (0.245% and 0.382% respectively). Foreign bond yields higher across the board: Germany 1.73% +6; UK 2.48% +9; France 2.27% +5, Italy 4.34% -2; Spain 4.61% +1; Portugal 6.39% +12!; Greece 9.69% +1 vs 9.64% -18!!! vs 9.80% vs 9.79% vs 9.81% vs 9.81% -10 vs 9.91% vs 10.02% +19 vs 9.81% vs 9.95% +17 vs 9.86% vs -13 vs 9.93% vs 10.07% vs 10.02% -16!!! vs 10.27% -19!!! vs 10.33% -25!!! vs 10.69% vs 10.85% +28!!! vs 10.52% vs 10.54% +40!!! vs 10.85% -37!!! vs 11.22%. Recent range: 8.04% to 12.57%.  Japan 0.81% +2.

 Gold closed slightly lower on an ‘inside’ session as it continues to see-saw but remains above the critical $1300 closing at $1311.20 -$1.80. 7/23’s session high was $1349.20 – highest since 6/20! 6/27’s intraday low was $1179.40 – lowest since at least 2011 and now critical support. $1300 remains psychological support, and it remains between the 40 day $1308 and the 50 day $1325 – both still falling. lt is way below, the 200 day – $1550!!! Overnight it has been SLAMMED hitting a low of $1282.40 – lowest and first time below $1300 since 7/19!!! It is currently $1288.30 -$22.80!!! Crude closed higher at $107.89 +$1.14 – following Tuesday’s session low of $102.67. It remains above the 40/50 day m/a’s (101.17/99.67), both rising. The 200 day ($93.72) is distant support. MAJOR SUP is again $104.21 -36 – a triple bottom from 7/10-7/12….it traded below it for five straight sessions before rallying Weds. 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! It is slightly weaker overnight at $107.69 -.20– with a session high of $108.82, near the high of $108.93 on 7/19! The range is $85.61-$109.32 since March 1, 2012.

Some random thoughts:

Larry Summers for Fed Chairman…that’s the ticket. Part of the ‘conspiracy’ to eliminate Glass-Steagall and now we learn that his net worth rose by $17 million after leaving Treasury…of course this is a pittance compared to Robert Rubin who Sandy Weill rewarded handsomely for his support by making him Vice Chairman of Citi – without portfolio and more than doubling his net worth – and for this he encouraged the bank to take more risk (as deposed CEO Chuck Prince said, ‘when the music is playing you have to get up and dance’ – yes but you better keep your ear on the sound!). Then when it all came tumbling down he said he didn’t understand those derivatives. This from a self-pronounced ‘eggspurt’ on bonds. People: we (you) were had…and then you got to bail them out and despite them paying back the TARP loans more money has been funneled to them by the government and the Fed while they earn record profits (not from banking!), and increase executive compensation while cutting jobs and keeping the dividend at historically low levels.

TB has just one question: when will the next (and final?) financial crisis come? Interesting story today where from Fortress to Blackstone the word is: get out of the market! This came out in offering statements so it isn’t just hype…better think about it.

Too disgusted to say more today…wake up Obama; it’s your legacy that is on the line!

 Hope you can all have a fun weekend…now get out of here!

 TB

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12/9/11…we don’t want no stinkin’ consumer protection!

December 9, 2011 at 8:49 am · Filed under economy, financial, markets ·Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Euro Leaders Agree on Budget Rigor With Next Step Left to Central Bankers – BIG YAWN!

*Stocks Rise With U.S. Futures as Euro Gains After Summit; Italy Bonds Drop

*EU Leaders Drop Demands for Investors to Take Writeoffs in Future Bailouts – gimme a break!

*Prime Money Funds in U.S. Cut Holdings of French Bank Debt 68% in November – no problemo

*U.S. Company Borrowing Reached Slowest Since ’10 on Europe – loaded with cash!

*Toyota Cuts Annual Profit Forecast by 54% After Thai Floods Disrupt Output – but the Volt???

*Texas Instruments Drops After Forecasting Sales Below Analyst’s Estimates – hello!!!

*Las Vegas Condo Fraud Exposed by ‘Old Ladies’ Angry With Rigged Elections

*Putin Protests Lift Default Swaps as VEB Cancels Bond Sales

*Disasters From Tsunami to Floods Imperil Supply-Chain Disruption Insurance

*Buddhist Packing James Bond’s Pistol Shows Warm Embrace of Guns in America – a Buddhist!

*Cameron Wishes Euro Nations Well as U.K. Negotiates Isolation in Brussels – Take that!

*Romney to Spend More Time Courting Voters in Bid to Blunt Gingrich’s Surge


Volume rose yet again to an above average 4.25B shares from 4.1B shares, in a second hodge-podge session producing mixed results. Meanwhile, NYSE stocks executed on the Big Board DIPPED to a still below average 930M, from 968, and while still 10% below average,still only the second 900M share day in the last six sessions! Also,18 of the last 20 sessions have been less than 1B! Once again TB’s adage proves itself: up on low volume down on bigger volume! Advance/Declines were VERY weak after being mixed for three sessions: -6.5:1 vs +1.1:1 vs +1.1:1 vs +3.5:1 vs +1.4:1 vs -1.5:1 vs +30:1 on NYSE and also -6.5:1 vs -1.2:1 vs -1.3:1 vs +2.2:1 vs +1.5:1 vs -1.6:1 vs +4.5:1 on Nasdaq!!! Breadth was even worse: -32x!!! vs +1.8x vs -1.1x vs +5x vs +1.6x vs +1.2x vs +30x on NYSE and -6.6x vs -1.2x vs -1.5x vs +3x vs -1.1x vs +1.3x vs +10x on Nasdaq. New 52 week highs slipped to 122 from 135 while new lows rose to 100 from 70….climbing even more sharply The ratio fell to just 1.2x positive! VIX rose  for a FOURTH session, closing at 30.59 +1.92, never even closing the 26.46-27.01 gap up from 10/27 and 10/31. This was highest close since 11-29! Meanwhile the 12 mo. ave. lies at 23.76 – fear still prevails!

Here are the results of the past seven sessions negating the rally: Dow -1.6% vs +0.4% vs +0.5% vs +0.6% vs flat vs -0.2% vs +4.2%!!!; Transports -2.5% vs +0.1% vs -0.8% vs +1.5% vs +0.8% vs -0.8% vs +4.8%; S&P 500 +1% vs flat vs -0.2% vs +4.3%; Nasdaq Composite -2.1% vs flat  vs +0.1% vs +1.1% vs flat vs +0.2% vs +3.8%; Nasdaq 100 -2% vs flat vs -0.2% vs +1.1% vs -0.3% vs +0.6% vs +3.8%; Russell 2000 +3.1%!!! vs -0.1% vs flat vs+1.6% vs +0.6% vs +0.9% vs +5.9%!!!; NYSE Financials -3.5%!!! vs +1% vs -0.1% vs +1.8% vs +1.3% vs  -0.9% vs +5.9%.  Leaders: BAC -5.1% vs +1.9% vs -0.2% vs +2.7% vs +1.7% vs +7.3%!!! C -7%!!! Vs +0.3% vs -0.3% vs +5.9%. Guess those 4,500 layoffs DID mean something!

European equity markets strong, Asia weak: FTSE +0.7% vs +0.3% vs -0.4% vs +0.2% vs +0.7% vs +1.5% vs +0.5% vs +2.9%; CAC 40 +1.8% vs -0.4% vs -0.5% vs -0.5% vs +1.4% vs +1.9% vs flat vs +3.5%;  DAX +1.6% vs flat vs -0.9% vs -0.8% vs +0.8% vs +1.7% vs -0.5% vs +4.2%!; Nikkei -1.5% vs -0.7% vs +1.7% vs -1.4% vs +0.6% vs +0.5% vs +1.9% vs -0.5% vs +2.3% vs +1.6%; Hang Seng -2.7%!!! vs -0.7% vs +1.6% vs -1.2% vs +0.7% vs +0.2% vs +5.6%!!! vs -1.5% vs +1.2% vs +2% vs -1.4% vs -2.1%!!!; Korean KOSPI -2% vs -0.4% vs +0.9% vs -1% vs +0.4% vs flat vs +3.7% vs -0.5% vs +2.3% vs +2.2% vs -1% vs -2.4%!!!; Indian Sensex -1.7% vs -2.3%!!! vs +0.4% vs closed vs -0.3% vs +2.2% vs +2.2% vs +0.7% vs -1% vs +3%, up only 7 times in the last 21 sessions! U.S. stock futures rallying and ignoring corporate earnings reports! DOW +89; SPX +11; NDQ +15. Bonds weaker as they are every morning lately, then rally back on stock weakness with 10’s AT 2% and 30’s still above 3%. 10 yr 2.00% -1/4. RECORD low 9/23 of 1.6855%; 30 yr 3.02% -1/2; Long TIP 0.84% -9/16. 0.57% at high three weeks ago. The 5 yr TIP yields MINUS 0.91%! 10 yr -0.04%. 3 mo. Libor 0.54%, and 0.76% 6 mo. – 3 mo. above 0.50% and six month above 0.75%…stable but yearend approaches! Bills -0.00% from one month out to six. 6 months 0.04%.

Gold tanked again Thursday but remains above $1700. It closed at $1713.40 -$31.40 but is now $1722.200 +$8.80. Once again correlating to stocks??? The record high is $1923.70, a buying climax on 9/6. RES is 1725, the 40 day and SUP $17611, the 50 day m/a! Major Res at $1800-1806, the November highs. Crude really TANKED Thursday crashing thru $100 support and closing $98.34 -$2.15, and is now $98.47 +.13.  Support at the 200 day (96), peaked. Major support is the 40/50 day m/a at $95.42-92.71, AND still moving up.

…stocks tanked and bonds rallied after stocks as the entire selloff was blamed on the central banks not going to buy up mortgage debt as speculated…of course this too is speculaton. About 15 minutes prior to the close stocks bottomed with the Dow at 11967 or -229, then short-covering (what else would it be?) attempting to get it back above 12k but failed leaving it at 11997. But as the news turns, today is a new day…full of hope, ah yes! Please Lucy, jerk that football away one more time!

Meanwhile the picture for corporate earnings continues to deteriorate…wait…doesn’t that lower the ‘e’ in p/e? Who cares, stocks are dirt cheap. Volatility? What’s that you say you perma-bear?

Note that while volume increased BIG BOARD volume DECLINED and remains well below average…more high frequency trades…when will they ever learn?…it is so funny to see the guys on CNBC trying to explain rallies and selloffs…of course the selloffs are just buying opportunities, right? Right???

Much is being made of Jon Corzine being subpoenaed and not taking the 5th. True, but his former brethren didn’t ask him any tough questions…no sir, he just sat there looking contrite as if the CEO isn’t where the buck stops…but then why should he think otherwise? Afterall, look at Mozillo and Pandit among others…

. . .   – – –  . . . note that the same old SOS applies…only more so!

Thomas Jefferson said that an informed electorate is the key to a democracy. He was right!

TB is not slipping, he decided to use Jefferson’s comment again…after a discussion with a friend and reader. He first called Obama a ‘pinko’ and then ‘the most divisive president in history.’  TB is not making fun of him as he is saying what a large number of Americans think. Where do we get these ideas.

But the worst part was the theme: ” anyone but Obama.” Do we really believe that things would be any different under McCain/Palin? The Tea Party would still have acted the same. We would still have gridlock in Congress, and the people would still be the losers. McCain is a maverick and would not support their cause either.

No, the most divisive president in history was Abraham Lincoln! To TB’s knowledge Obama has not gotten us into a civil war…one that, by the way, proved Lincoln right but at a cost of more lives than any war since. So let’s not bestow that ‘honor’ on Obama. Also, let’s grow up and stop blaming him for the budget deficit (all GOP candidates), or cutting defense spending (Gingrich). This is sheer pandering…pandering to the most extreme right who will possibly dictate who the eventual GOP presidential candidate is.

Karl Rove, the man who brought us George W. Bush, is now bashing Newt, and saying the RNC should disavow the Trump debates. On the other hand, he is making up more lies about Elizabeth Warren…now even blaming her for TARP – when she was opposed to bailouts! This comes at a time when the Senate rejected a qualified candidate to head the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, just as they did Warren but without the personal attacks. This time though, the reason is said to be he is qualified but we don’t need more consumer protection…especially from Wall Street as the SEC and other agencies are doing that. Wrong! They aren’t and for precisely the reasons that this bureau was being created: Congress controls them! …and Congress is bought and paid for by Wall Street. One only had to listen to the diatribe of Mitch McConnell to see the true motivation for both rejections.

Newt has already shown his derision of the electoral process by declaring himself the GOP candidate (Putin pay attention), sucking up to the conservative media, and instead of answering questions from what he perceives to be the liberal media, spent the time chastising them for asking the wrong questions. If he is elected president, don’t expect a spirit of cooperation.

TB stopped being a conservative after listening to Limbaugh and others, who since have become even more inflammatory in their remarks…it is good for ratings…and money! The right hates Rachel Maddow, who uses sarcasm instead to make her points…no screaming or ranting. Guess they prefer hearing people called terms like ‘pinhead’ or worse.

NPR is hated by the GOP…yet it is the only honest (fair and balanced) reporting in this country. The other day they had on a conservative blogger (powerline.com), who showed just how off point they can be (by the way whatever happened to radical and reactionary?). He said the left controls journalism and after bringing down Nixon, everyone wanted to become an investigative reporter “so they could bring down a Republican president” – huh? Guess he missed the Viet Nam protests when LBJ was running the country. The exception he said is the Wall Street Journal who employs liberal reporters but the editorial page is conservative.

Ahem, let’ look at history. Remember Michael Milken? While the investigative reporters did an excellent job of calling him what he was, the editorial page, under the control of Jude Wanniski not only defended him but made him an idol. While Milken was in prison in Pleasanton, Cal., TB met Wanniski when he met with TB’s company. He talked about the economy etc. then said: “I have to go now as I am going to have lunch with ‘Mike.” See, being a convicted felon did not stop him from defending him…another vast left wing conspiracy?

Once again, TB is not anti-capitalism, or anti-Wall Street, but he is against crony capitalism which is what we have and what allows the CEO’s of the biggest companies to earn hundreds of millions while the shareholders get their…well…lumps of coal or worse.

We haven’t had true capitalism in this country for at least a decade and the roots were planted three decades ago…not coincidentally when the average worker’s real compensation began to decline. Remember when CEO’s earned an average 10x the average worker? For most companies that formula isn’t too far off…and those companies do more for their shareholders!

Albert Poujols just signed a ten year $250 million contract, second only to A-Rods, with the Los Angeles Angels. At least he earned it but it is sad that money drives everything these days. Witness the departure of most of the Boston Red Sox after beating the Yankees in the World Series. Poujols talked glowingly of his love for the Cards…but guess the lure of money was greater…perhaps he now thinks like CEO’s: what’s in it for me? Is A-Rod a better player since getting his record contract? Will Albert be even better? Stay tuned. How much is enough?

The difference of course is it is the fans who will pay to see Poujols’ play…not shareholders. In this case there are few shareholders and this is just one investment for them. While TB loathed Steinbrenner, he knew how to play the game by not just owning the team but the media.

In closing, TB does not want you to think his way, and is not trying to convince you, merely try to make you think for yourself. There are two sides to every story…it is up to you to decide.

Have a great weekend…anything that gets us away from the market has to be better than this!

TB

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