3/2/15…end of the trail…hasta luego, baby!

Keep calm and carry on…by drinking wine! TB

Thanks for following the blog…into oblivion…all the best to my friends and readers,

TB

Next week’s economic calendar is full of important indicators. The highlight of the week will be the ISM Manufacturing (Monday, ISM Non-Manufacturing (Wednesday) and Employment Situation (Friday). We will also get January Personal Income and January Construction Spending (Monday), February Motor Vehicle Sales (Tuesday), February ADP Employment (Wednesday), Q4 Productivity & Costs Final (Thursday), January International Trade and January Consumer Credit (Friday).                                   Courtesy of Economic Advisory Service

Friday’s Market Summary:

The question continues: where is there a trend? Dunno, and don’t walk, run, from anyone who tries to ‘splain it to you. On Friday (monthend by the way), all indices were down from 0.3% (S&P 500) to 0.6% (Dow Transports). With the exception of SPX every index (except Dow Utilities +0.1%) was off from 0.5-0.6% – how’s that for uniform? Here’s an anomaly: The S&P VIX, despite all the indices being down declined to 13.44 -.47 –sounds strange but then it was monthend, so could be a countertrade? Volume only slightly higher at 3.5B shares – compare to end of February – 1B share higher! Think!

A/D’s and Breadth were mixed on NYSE and this time slightly negative on Nasdaq, while new highs dropped sharply from 300 to a weak 237; new lows rose again to 68 vs 51, recovering Wednesday’s dip to 41. As Seinfeld would say, “it’s about nothing.”

The ytd scoreboard remains volatile (can’t recall ever seeing it this much before): Dow 30 +1.6%; Dow Transports -1.2%.; Dow Utilities -3.8%; S&P 500 -2.1%; Nasdaq Comp +4.9%; NDQ 100 +4.7%; Russell 2000 +2.1%. NYSE Financials -0.7%: KBW Banks -2.8%; Nasdaq Banks -2.3%. Note those are through February…annualize that!

Total NYSE Volume continued to edge higher and has now reached 3.5B shares, the average of the first 10 months of last year, but still historically weak, especially for a monthend – vs 3.4B vs 3.3B vs 3.19B vs 3.05B, the 2nd lowest of 2015 – ytd low is 2.7B on Jan. 2; while 12/24’s 1.4B shares is the 12-month low. Shares traded on the NYSE floor are no longer available – 646M is the ytd low while 12/24’s 349M is the 12-month low…average is 745M shares! Since 1/5 the average is 846M shares and steadily declining! The Dec. average peaked at 979M shares on Dec. 22nd.

Advance/Declines were mixed this time with NYSE slightly positive and Nasdaq modestly negative: NYSE: +1.1x vs -1.2x vs +1.2x vs +1.6x vs 1:1; Nasdaq -1.6x vs +1.3x vs +1.2x vs +1.4x vs -1.3x. Breadth was negative: NYSE -1.2x vs -1.9x! vs +1.2x vs +1.6x vs -1.8x; Nasdaq -1.5x vs +1.3x vs +1.2x vs +1.1x vs -1.1x. New 52 Week Highs sharply lower at 237 vs 300 vs 301 vs 261 vs 312 vs 315 vs 290 vs 238 vs 297 vs 346 – their range for the last 12 mos. is 39-612!!! New Lows slightly better at 68 vs 51 vs 41 vs 52 vs 68 – 2015 high is 386 (12/16’s high was 712!!!) The 12-month range is 24-1043!!! S&P VIX was slightly higher again at 13.91 +.07, Tuesday was the lowest (most bullish) since 12/26, and below the 200 day (14.65). The recent high is 12/16’s 25.20, second only to 10/17’s (31.06!) – highest since 11/2/11!!! Average of the past 12 months is 14.61, with a low of 10.28!…high close was 26.25 on 10/15/14!

U.S. Bond Market ended the week with a rally. All things considered bonds look pretty good since setting new low yields on 2/4 on Greece: 10’s 2.00% +9/32 (1.64% low yield); 30’s 2.60% +3/4 (2.22% low); Long TIP 0.66% +5/8 (0.49% low!).

Gold managed yet another small gain with support at $1200 holding, closing at $1212.40 +$2.30, but has done little since l2/18’s $1197.80, lowest since 1/5 It peaked at $1307.80 on 1/22. $1130.40 is the current 12-month low! 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! RESISTANCE is the 50 day, $1230, the 40 day $1235, then the 200 day at $1250. The 12-month high is $1392.60 on 3/17/14, highest high since 9/4/13. Silver closed a tad lower at $16.54 -.07. The 200 day ($18.32) is resistance with res at the 50 day, $16.80, and the 40 day, $16.87. $14.12 is the recent low (12/1/14), first time in more than five years!

Crude had to struggle to close higher and even then couldn’t get back to $50, closing at $49.20 +$1.03 – would someone please tell the guys at the pump who keep charging more? 2/18’s $47.36 was lowest since 2/5, negating the Greece rally. 1/28’s low was $44.08, lowest since 3/09. $50-52 is again resistance. 12/17’s high was $58.98. Consider: 10/25/14’s high was $84.83. There have been 64!!! handles since peaking at $107.73 on June 13th, highest since 9/19/13, and it is off 59% since then! The record high of $147.27 was on 9/30/08. Res is again the 40 day ($49.91), with support at the 50 day ($50.52), and major res at the 200 day ($82.84). The range is $43.58-$112.24 since 3/1/12. Note that following the financial crisis it traded down to $32.40 on 12/31/08 from a high of $147.27 just three months earlier (-78%!!!). Recall TB’s prediction of a bounce at $43.83? WILL it test that $32.40 March ’09 low?…by the way, the decline from the 9/20/08 high to the low took EXACTLY 6 months – we are now in the 9th month of decline!!!

It has been TB’s pleasure writing this column and it is he who derived the most from its content. May the rest of the year go your way and your portfolios reflect it. As for TB, he is just focusing on the next three weeks in the Basque country of northwest Spain. Seeing the sights, drinking the wine and sampling the tapas…meeting new people and working on his wine blog and hopefully his book.

The blog will remain ‘open’ and at some point might be resurrected but not in the current format. Perhaps more economically related: the ‘blend’ of the financial and political.

All the best,

TB

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