2/27/15…can anyone recall what a trend is? Besides in fashion!

Keep calm and carry on…by drinking wine! TB

Coming down to the wire…after more than ten years and more than 1,670 posts, a change has been caused due to the loss of Bloomberg. He will continue posting for the rest of the week (monthend), before leaving for Spain for three weeks to work on his wine blog/book (www.traderbillonwine.com)

Thanks for following the blog…

TB

Thursday’s Market Summary:

Sure feels like déjà vu all over again…stocks were mixed with the majors in the red -0.1% to -0.5% (Dow Transports), while the two Nasdaqs and Russell 2000 were slightly positive (+0.3-0.5%). They hit Dow Utilities the hardest, -0.8%. The S&P VIX almost into bullish territory with a minor rise to 13.91 +.07. Volume only slightly higher at 3.4B shares but still well below recent averages.

A/D’s and Breadth were mixed: slightly negative on NYSE and slightly positive on Nasdaq, while new highs were steady at 300; new lows rose to 51, recovering Wednesday’s dip to 41. Nothing to see here…what’ a trend? TB has forgotten!

The ytd scoreboard remains volatile (can’t recall ever seeing it this much before): Dow 30 +2.2%; Dow Transports -0.6%.; Dow Utilities -3.9%; S&P 500 -1.8%; Nasdaq Comp +5.4%; NDQ 100 +5.2%; Russell 2000 +2.6%. NYSE Financials -0.6%: KBW Banks -2.3%; Nasdaq Banks -1.8%.

Total NYSE Volume continued to edge higher but remains weak at 3.4B shares vs 3.3B vs 3.19B vs 3.05B, the 2nd lowest of 2015, vs 3.27B – ytd low is 2.7B on Jan. 2; while 12/24’s 1.4B shares is the 12-month low. Shares traded on the NYSE floor are no longer available – 646M is the ytd low while 12/24’s 349M is the 12-month low…average is 745M shares! Since 1/5 the average is 846M shares and steadily declining! The Dec. average peaked at 979M shares on Dec. 22nd.

Advance/Declines were mixed, with NYSE slightly negative and Nasdaq slightly positive: NYSE: -1.2x vs +1.2x vs +1.6x vs 1:1 vs +2.1x; Nasdaq +1.3x vs +1.2x vs +1.4x vs -1.3x vs +1.1x. Breadth was similar, NYSE worse: NYSE -1.9x! vs +1.2x vs +1.6x vs -1.8x vs +2.1x; Nasdaq +1.3x vs +1.2x vs +1.1x vs -1.1x vs +1.7x. New 52 Week Highs steady at 300 vs 301 vs 261 vs 312 vs 315 vs 290 vs 238 vs 297 vs 346 – their range for the last 12 mos. is 39-612!!! New Lows up slightly at 51 vs 41 vs 52 vs 68 from a WEAK 45 – 2015 high is 386 (12/16’s high was 712!!!) The 12-month range is 24-1043!!! S&P VIX was slightly higher again at 13.91 +.07, Tuesday was the lowest (most bullish) since 12/26, and below the 200 day (14.65). The recent high is 12/16’s 25.20, second only to 10/17’s (31.06!) – highest since 11/2/11!!! Average of the past 12 months is 14.61, with a low of 10.28!…high close was 26.25 on 10/15/14!

U.S. Bond Market lost ground for the first time in four sessions – 10’s back above 2% after setting new low yields on 2/4 on Greece: 10’s 2.03% -9/16 (1.64% low yield); 30’s 2.63% -1-5/32 (2.22% low); Long TIP 0.68% unchanged! (0.49% low!).

Gold managed another small gain with support at $1200 holding, closing at $1209.00 +$7.50, and has gone nowhere since l2/18’s $1197.80, lowest since 1/5 It peaked at $1307.80 on 1/22. $1130.40 is the current 12-month low! 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! RESISTANCE is the 50 day, $1230, the 40 day $1235, then the 200 day at $1250. The 12-month high is $1392.60 on 3/17/14, highest high since 9/4/13. Silver also closed higher at $16.54 +.08. The 200 day ($18.32) is resistance with res at the 50 day, $16.80, and the 40 day, $16.87. $14.12 is the recent low (12/1/14), first time in more than five years!

Crude once again gave up its gains closing at $48.94 -$2.05 – would someone please tell the guys at the pump who keep charging more? 2/18’s $47.36 was lowest since 2/5, negating the Greece rally. 1/28’s low was $44.08, lowest since 3/09. $50-52 is again resistance. 12/17’s high was $58.98. Consider: 10/25/14’s high was $84.83. There have been 64!!! handles since peaking at $107.73 on June 13th, highest since 9/19/13, and it is off 59% since then! The record high of $147.27 was on 9/30/08. Res is again the 40 day ($49.91), with support at the 50 day ($50.52), and major res at the 200 day ($82.84). The range is $43.58-$112.24 since 3/1/12. Note that following the financial crisis it traded down to $32.40 on 12/31/08 from a high of $147.27 just three months earlier (-78%!!!). Recall TB’s prediction of a bounce at $43.83? WILL it test that $32.40 March ’09 low?…by the way, the decline from the 9/20/08 high to the low took EXACTLY 6 months – we are now in the 9th month of decline!!!

Enjoy your weekend…just have to summarize todays markets and TB is done! At least for the forseeable future. Simply too much work without Bloomberg!

TB

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