2/26/15…say it ‘is so’, Janet…or it isn’t, but say something!

Keep calm and carry on…by drinking wine! TB

Note the new format…after more than ten years and more than 1,650 posts, a change has been caused due to the loss of Bloomberg (a terminal costs over $30,000 a year – one terminal…now you know why Mike Bloomberg is so wealthy and can waste time as mayor of NYC (joke). TB is going to summarize Friday’s markets using WSJ data but it will be impossible to provide accurate overnight markets. Also, will continue to provide ytd index returns but they will only be approximations…close, but not accurate.

He will continue posting for the rest of the week (monthend), before leaving for Spain for three weeks to work on his wine blog/book (www.traderbillonwine.com)

Thanks for following the blog…


Wednesday’s Market Summary:

This is simply too boring for words…just when they got the S&P VIX almost into bullish territory…almost! Volume only slightly higher at 3.3B shares and still weak. The goat was Dow Utilities -1.6% vs +0.7% vs +0.7%! All of the rest ranged from -0.5% (Dow Transports) to +0.1% (Dow 30/Russell 2000), that’s all you need to know.

A/D’s and Breadth were barely positive…by rounding up they got to +1.2x every one, while new highs climbed back to a 301 vs 261 vs 312; new lows did likewise falling back to 52 from 68 from a weak 45. The S&P VIX rose slightly – is this a case of thus far and no farther, if so, bad news for bulls, closing at 13.81 +.12, back above the average now so could be considered in bull territory – barely. But what is confirming that? Not the indices OR the volume!

The ytd scoreboard remains volatile (can’t recall ever seeing it this much before): Dow 30 +2.3%; Dow Transports -0.1%.; Dow Utilities -3.1%; S&P 500 -1.6%; Nasdaq Comp +5.0%; NDQ 100 +4.7%; Russell 2000 +2.3%. NYSE Financials -0.3%: KBW Banks -2%; Nasdaq Banks -2.1%.

Total NYSE Volume edged higher but remains weak at 3.3B shares vs 3.19B vs 3.05B, the 2nd lowest of 2015, vs 3.27B shares vs 3.2B – ytd low is 2.7B on Jan. 2; while 12/24’s 1.4B shares is the 12-month low. Shares traded on the NYSE floor are no longer available – 646M is the ytd low while 12/24’s 349M is the 12-month low…average is 745M shares! Since 1/5 the average is 846M shares and steadily declining! The Dec. average peaked at 979M shares on Dec. 22nd.

Advance/Declines were barely positive – all were rounded up: NYSE: +1.2x vs +1.6x vs 1:1 vs +2.1x vs -1.1x; Nasdaq +1.2x vs +1.4x vs -1.3x vs +1.1x vs +1.1x. Breadth was similar: NYSE+1.2x vs +1.6x vs -1.8x vs +2.1x vs -1.5x; Nasdaq +1.2x vs +1.1x vs -1.1x vs +1.7x vs +1.2x vs +1.1x. New 52 Week Highs climbed back to 301 vs 261 vs 312 vs 315 vs 290 vs 238 vs 297 vs 346 – their range for the last 12 mos. is 39-612!!! New Lows slipped again to 41 vs 52 vs 68 from a WEAK 45 vs 45 – 2015 high is 386 (12/16’s high was 712!!!) The 12-month range is 24-1043!!! S&P VIX regained some of Tuesdays bullish decline, closing at 13.81 +.12, Tuesday was the lowest (most bullish) since 12/26, and below the 200 day (14.65). The recent high is 12/16’s 25.20, second only to 10/17’s (31.06!) – highest since 11/2/11!!! Average of the past 12 months is 14.61, with a low of 10.28!…high close was 26.25 on 10/15/14!

U.S. Bond Market rallied for a 3rd day. Who’s afraid of the big bad Fed? Not me! Now FOUR straight ‘up’ days in the past 13 sessions since setting new low yields on 2/4 on Greece: 10’s 1.97% +1/2 (1.64% low yield); 30’s 2.57% +9/16 (2.22% low); Long TIP 0.68% +11/16 (0.49% low!).

Gold managed a small gain but remains stymied around $1200, closing at $1204.30 +$7.00, and has gone nowhere since last Wednesday’s $1197.80, lowest since 1/5 It peaked at $1307.80 on 1/22. $1130.40 is the current 12-month low! 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! RESISTANCE is the 50 day, $1230, the 40 day $1235, then the 200 day at $1250. The 12-month high is $1392.60 on 3/17/14, highest high since 9/4/13. Silver closed higher at $16.26 +.26. The 200 day ($18.32) is resistance with res at the 50 day, $16.80, and the 40 day, $16.87. $14.12 is the recent low (12/1/14), first time in more than five years!

Crude was lifeless again but did manage to close at took another hit closing at $51.13 +$1.85. This after plummeting to $47.36 last Wednesday, lowest since 2/5, negating the Greece rally. 1/28’s low was $44.08, lowest since 3/09. $50-52 is again resistance. 12/17’s high was $58.98. Consider: 10/25/14’s high was $84.83. There have been 64!!! handles since peaking at $107.73 on June 13th, highest since 9/19/13, and it is off 59% since then! The record high of $147.27 was on 9/30/08. Res is again the 40 day ($49.91), with support at the 50 day ($50.52), and major res at the 200 day ($82.84). The range is $43.58-$112.24 since 3/1/12. Note that following the financial crisis it traded down to $32.40 on 12/31/08 from a high of $147.27 just three months earlier (-78%!!!). Recall TB’s prediction of a bounce at $43.83? WILL it test that $32.40 March ’09 low?…by the way, the decline from the 9/20/08 high to the low took EXACTLY 6 months – we are now in the 9th month of decline!!!

Have a great day…just have to write this for one more day! Life without Bloomberg is hell!




  1. Yarnman said

    TB–Hasta la vista, y los viajes con seguridad!–Yarnman

    • traderbill said

      Espana es muy bonita. Hay es mucho vino in el pais de los Bascos. Adios, mi amigo y muchas gracias! Guillermo

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