2/25/15…directionless market…

Keep calm and carry on…by drinking wine! TB

Note the new format…after more than ten years and more than 1,650 posts, a change has been caused due to the loss of Bloomberg (a terminal costs over $30,000 a year – one terminal…now you know why Mike Bloomberg is so wealthy and can waste time as mayor of NYC (joke). TB is going to summarize Friday’s markets using WSJ data but it will be impossible to provide accurate overnight markets. Also, will continue to provide ytd index returns but they will only be approximations…close, but not accurate.

He will continue posting for the rest of the week (monthend), before leaving for Spain for three weeks to work on his wine blog/book (www.traderbillonwine.com)

Thanks for following the blog…

TB

Tuesday’s Market Summary:

Just another low volume session totaling 3.19B shares up from 3.05B shares, second only to Jan. 2nd’s 2.7B 2015 low! That is simply pathetic for the end of February and means that the markets are at the ‘mercy’ (?) of the flash traders. I know, I said this yesterday! ‘Bears’ repeating!

For a 2nd straight session the best performer was Dow Utilities +0.7% vs +0.7% – just when you wrote them off! All of the rest ranged from flat (NDQ 100) to +0.5% (Dow 30), that’s all you need to know.

A/D’s and Breadth were modestly positive, while new highs fell back to a weak 261 vs 312; new lows did likewise falling back to 52 from 68 from a weak 45. The S&P VIX declined again to 13.36 -0.87, below the average now so could be considered in bull territory – barely. But what is confirming that? Not the indices OR the volume!

The ytd scoreboard remains volatile (can’t recall ever seeing it this much before): Dow 30 +2.2%; Dow Transports +0.4%.; Dow Utilities -1.5%; S&P 500 -1.5%; Nasdaq Comp +5.0%; NDQ 100 +4.9%; Russell 2000 +2.2%. NYSE Financials -0.2%: KBW Banks -2%; Nasdaq Banks -1.9%.

Total NYSE Volume barely rose to a still weak 3.19B shares from 3.05B, the 2nd lowest of 2015, vs 3.27B shares vs 3.2B vs 3.34B vs 3.35B vs 3.52B – ytd low is 2.7B on Jan. 2; while 12/24’s 1.4B shares is the 12-month low. Shares traded on the NYSE floor are no longer available – 646M is the ytd low while 12/24’s 349M is the 12-month low…average is 745M shares! Since 1/5 the average is 846M shares and steadily declining! The Dec. average peaked at 979M shares on Dec. 22nd.

Advance/Declines were slightly positive: NYSE: +1.6x vs 1:1 vs +2.1x vs -1.1x vs +1.2x; Nasdaq +1.4x vs -1.3x vs +1.1x vs +1.1x vs +1.1x. Breadth was similar: NYSE+1.6x vs -1.8x vs +2.1x vs -1.5x vs +1:1; Nasdaq +1.1x vs -1.1x vs +1.7x vs +1.2x vs +1.1x. New 52 Week Highs fell to 261 vs 312 vs 315 vs 290 vs 238 vs 297 vs 346 – their range for the last 12 mos. is 39-612!!! New Lows also fell back to 52 vs 68 from a WEAK 45 vs 45 vs 45 – 2015 high is 386 (12/16’s high was 712!!!) The 12-month range is 24-1043!!! S&P VIX declined to 13.69 -.87, the lowest (most bullish) since 12/26, and below the 200 day (14.65). The recent high is 12/16’s 25.20, second only to 10/17’s (31.06!) – highest since 11/2/11!!! Average of the past 12 months is 14.61, with a low of 10.28!…high close was 26.25 on 10/15/14!

U.S. Bond Market rallied for a 2nd day. Now three ‘up’ days in the past 12 sessions since setting new low yields on 2/4 on Greece: 10’s 1.99% +5/8 (1.64% low yield); 30’s 2.60% +1-1/8 (2.22% low); Long TIP 0.70% +1-1/2 (0.49% low!).

Gold continued to founder and has gone nowhere since last Wednesday’s $1197.80, lowest since 1/5, closing at $1199.80 -$1.00 It peaked at $1307.80 on 1/22. $1130.40 is the current 12-month low! 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! RESISTANCE is the 50 day, $1230, the 40 day $1235, then the 200 day at $1250. The 12-month high is $1392.60 on 3/17/14, highest high since 9/4/13. Silver also closed lower at $16.26 -.11. The 200 day ($18.32) is resistance with res at the 50 day, $16.80, and the 40 day, $16.87. $14.12 is the recent low (12/1/14), first time in more than five years!

Crude took another hit closing at $49.08 -.37. This after plummeting to $47.36 last Wednesday, lowest since 2/5, negating the Greece rally. 1/28’s low was $44.08, lowest since 3/09. $50-52 is again resistance. 12/17’s high was $58.98. Consider: 10/25/14’s high was $84.83. There have been 64!!! handles since peaking at $107.73 on June 13th, highest since 9/19/13, and it is off 59% since then! The record high of $147.27 was on 9/30/08. Res is again the 40 day ($49.91), with support at the 50 day ($50.52), and major res at the 200 day ($82.84). The range is $43.58-$112.24 since 3/1/12. Note that following the financial crisis it traded down to $32.40 on 12/31/08 from a high of $147.27 just three months earlier (-78%!!!). Recall TB’s prediction of a bounce at $43.83? WILL it test that $32.40 March ’09 low?…by the way, the decline from the 9/20/08 high to the low took EXACTLY 6 months – we are now in the 9th month of decline!!!

Have a great day…just have to write this for two more days! Life without Bloomberg is hell!

 

TB

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