Keep calm and carry on…by drinking wine! TB
Note the new format…after more than ten years and more than 1,650 posts, a change has been caused due to the loss of Bloomberg (a terminal costs over $30,000 a year – one terminal…now you know why Mike Bloomberg is so wealthy and can waste time as mayor of NYC (joke). TB is going to summarize Friday’s markets using WSJ data but it will be impossible to provide accurate overnight markets. Also, will continue to provide ytd index returns but they will only be approximations…close, but not accurate. (Somebody get TB Bloomberg access and a little pay and he will continue writing!)
He will continue posting for the rest of the week (monthend), before leaving for Spain for three weeks to work on his wine blog/book (www.traderbillonwine.com)
Thanks for following the blog…
Monday’s Market Summary:
As if things weren’t confusing enough, Monday was a mixed day and volume dropped to 3.05B shares, second only to Jan. 2nd’s 2.7B 2015 low! That is simply pathetic for the end of February and means that the markets are at the ‘mercy’ (?) of the flash traders. For example, TB tried to sell just 300 shares of a major bank stock yesterday. As always he uses limits, in this case the bid side of the market. As soon as the bid was entered the screen dropped to below his bid…changed it and this happened three times in less than five minutes! Pulled the bid and it went back up…that folks is what flash trading does to a market…turns it into a casino where they are the house! You cannot win. Played with it for about 20 minutes and finally got the price I wanted, but for 300 shares? Bring back the specialists…and call in the useless SEC!
What was the best performer yesterday? Dow Utilities +0.7% – just when you wrote them off! All of the rest ranged from -0.1% (Dow 30) to +0.1% (both Nasdaqs and Transports), with both S&P 500 and Russell 2000 FLAT! NYSE Financials gave back 0.5%, thanks mainly to KBW Banks which also lost 0.5%.
A/D’s and Breadth were slightly negative, while new highs were steady at a solid 312, but new lows rose to 68 from a weak 45. The S&P VIX declined to 14.30 -0.99, and getting close to neutral but certainly not bullish considering expiry and the low volume.
The ytd scoreboard remains volatile (can’t recall ever seeing it this much before): Dow 30 +1.7%; Dow Transports –; Dow Utilities -2.2%!!! S&P 500 +2.5%; Nasdaq Comp +4.7%; NDQ 100 +4.8%; Russell 2000 +2.2%. NYSE Financials -0.4%: KBW Banks -3%; Nasdaq Banks -2.5%.
Total NYSE Volume barely rose despite options expiration from the 2nd lowest of 2015 to 3.27B shares vs 3.2B shares vs 3.34B vs 3.35B vs 3.52B – ytd low is 2.7B on Jan. 2; while 12/24’s 1.4B shares is the 12-month low. Shares traded on the NYSE floor unavailable vs 693M shares with just 583M at the closing bell vs 730M vs 780m vs 760M vs 803M – 1.22B on 1/30 is highest since 8/8/11!!! – 646M is the ytd low while 12/24’s 349M is the 12-month low…average is 745M shares! Since 1/5 the average is 846M shares and steadily declining! The Dec. average peaked at 979M shares on Dec. 22nd.
Advance/Declines were slightly negative: NYSE: 1:1 vs +2.1x vs -1.1x vs +1.2x vs -1.3x vs +1.7x vs +3.3x! Nasdaq -1.3x vs +1.1x vs +1.1x vs +1.1x vs +1.3x. Breadth was similar: NYSE -1.8x vs +2.1x vs -1.5x vs +1:1 vs +1.3x; Nasdaq -1.1x vs +1.7x vs +1.2x vs +1.1x vs +2x. New 52 Week Highs steady at 312 vs 315 vs 290 vs 238 vs 297 vs 346 – their range for the last 12 mos. is 39-612!!! New Lows finally picked up to 68 from a WEAK 45 vs 45 vs 45 vs 39 vs 41 vs 37 – 2015 high is 386 (12/16’s high was 712!!!) The 12-month range is 24-1043!!! S&P VIX rose for the first time in four sessions from a near neutral 14.30 lowest since 12/26, to 14.56 +.28 and almost back to the 200 day (14.65). The recent high is 12/16’s 25.20, second only to 10/17’s (31.06!) – highest since 11/2/11!!! Average of the past 12 months is 14.61, with a low of 10.28!…high close was 26.25 on 10/15/14!
U.S. Bond Market woke up, finally. Just two ‘up’ days in the past 11 sessions since setting new low yields on 2/4 on Greece: 10’s 2.06% +9/16 (1.64% low yield); 30’s 2.65% +1-11/16 (2.22% low); Long TIP 0.75% +1-3/4 (0.49% low!).
Gold continued to founder and has gone nowhere since last Wednesday’s $1197.80, lowest since 1/5, closing at $1202.20 -$2.70 It peaked at $1307.80 on 1/22. $1130.40 is the current 12-month low! 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! RESISTANCE is the 50 day, $1230, the 40 day $1235, then the 200 day at $1250. The 12-month high is $1392.60 on 3/17/14, highest high since 9/4/13. Silver also closed lower at $16.26 -.11. The 200 day ($18.32) is resistance with res at the 50 day, $16.80, and the 40 day, $16.87. $14.12 is the recent low (12/1/14), first time in more than five years!
Crude took another hit closing at $49.36 -$1.45! This after plummeting to $47.36 last Wednesday, lowest since 2/5, negating the Greece rally. 1/28’s low was $44.08, lowest since 3/09. $50-52 is again resistance. 12/17’s high was $58.98. Consider: 10/25/14’s high was $84.83. There have been 64!!! handles since peaking at $107.73 on June 13th, highest since 9/19/13, and it is off 59% since then! The record high of $147.27 was on 9/30/08. Res is again the 40 day ($49.91), with support at the 50 day ($50.52), and major res at the 200 day ($82.84). The range is $43.58-$112.24 since 3/1/12. Note that following the financial crisis it traded down to $32.40 on 12/31/08 from a high of $147.27 just three months earlier (-78%!!!). Recall TB’s prediction of a bounce at $43.83? WILL it test that $32.40 March ’09 low?…by the way, the decline from the 9/20/08 high to the low took EXACTLY 6 months – we are now in the 9th month of decline!!!
Have a great day…just have to write this for three more days! Life without Bloomberg is hell!