2/23/15…end of an era?

Keep calm and carry on…by drinking wine! TB

Note the new format…after more than ten years and more than 1,650 posts, a change has been caused due to the loss of Bloomberg (a terminal costs over $30,000 a year – one terminal…now you know why Mike Bloomberg is so wealthy and can waste time as mayor of NYC (joke). TB is going to summarize Friday’s markets using WSJ data but it will be impossible to provide accurate overnight markets. Also, will continue to provide ytd index returns but they will only be approximations…close, but not accurate.

Thanks for following the blog…

TB

This week’s economic calendar is full of important indicators. The highlight of the week will be the January CPI (Thursday) and Q4 GDP 2nd Estimate (Friday). We will also get January Existing Home Sales, February Dallas Fed Manufacturing (Monday), December Case-Shiller Home Prices, February Consumer Confidence and February Richmond Fed Manufacturing (Tuesday), January New Home Sales (Wednesday) and January Durables Goods Orders (Thursday), February Chicago PMI and February Consumer Sentiment Final (Friday).

Courtesy of Economic Advisory Service

Friday’s Market Summary:

Talk about a non-event options expiration. While all indices closed up – get this Dow 30 +0.9%, Russell 2000 +0.3%; Dow Utilities flat, the rest all up 0.6% – and that should give you pause…all up exactly the same amount. Perhaps you believe in coincidences – not TB! Total Volume was incredibly light for an expiry at 3.27B shares, compared to Thursday’s pathetic 3.2B shares. Cannot provide shares traded on the floor but consider it also light – translation: absence of retail! A/D’s and Breadth were ho-hum. New 52 week highs rose to 315 while new lows were stable at 45. The S&P VIX declined to 14.30 -0.99, and getting close to neutral but certainly not bullish considering expiry and the low volume.

The ytd scoreboard remains volatile (can’t recall ever seeing it this much before): Dow 30 +1.8%; Dow Transports -0.1%; Dow Utilities -2.9%!!! S&P 500 +2.5%; Nasdaq Comp +4.6%; NDQ 100 +4.7%; Russell 2000 +2.2%. NYSE Financials +0.1%: KBW Banks -2.5%; Nasdaq Banks -2.3%.

 

Total NYSE Volume barely rose despite options expiration from the 2nd lowest of 2015 to 3.27B shares vs 3.2B shares vs 3.34B vs 3.35B vs 3.52B – ytd low is 2.7B on Jan. 2; while 12/24’s 1.4B shares is the 12-month low. Shares traded on the NYSE floor unavailable vs 693M shares with just 583M at the closing bell vs 730M vs 780m vs 760M vs 803M – 1.22B on 1/30 is highest since 8/8/11!!! – 646M is the ytd low while 12/24’s 349M is the 12-month low…average is 745M shares! Since 1/5 the average is 846M shares and steadily declining! The Dec. average peaked at 979M shares on Dec. 22nd.

Advance/Declines were slightly positive: NYSE: +2.1x vs -1.1x vs +1.2x vs -1.3x vs +1.7x vs +3.3x! Nasdaq +1.1x vs +1.1x vs +1.1x vs +1.3x vs +1.8x. Breadth was similar: NYSE +2.1x vs -1.5x vs +1:1 vs +1.3x vs +1.9x vs +5x!!! Nasdaq +1.7x vs +1.2x vs +1.1x vs +2x vs +2x. New 52 Week Highs rose to 315 vs 290 vs 238 vs 297 vs 346 – their range for the last 12 mos. is 39-612!!! New Lows stable at a WEAK 45 vs 45 vs 45 vs 39 vs 41 vs 37 – 2015 high is 386 (12/16’s high was 712!!!) The 12-month range is 24-1043!!! S&P VIX lower again at a near neutral 14.30 -.99, lowest since 12/26, and back below the 200 day (14.65). The recent high is 12/16’s 25.20, second only to 10/17’s (31.06!) – highest since 11/2/11!!! Average of the past 12 months is 14.61, with a low of 10.28!…high close was 26.25 on 10/15/14!

U.S. Bond Market weaker again. Just one ‘up’ day in the past 10 sessions since setting new low yields on 2/4 on Greece: 10’s 2.13% -5/8 (1.64% low yield); 30’s 2.74% -3/16 (2.22% low); Long TIP 0.83% 1/8 (0.49% low!).

Gold did nothing and hasn’t since Wednesday’s $1197.80, lowest since 1/5, closing at $1204.40 -$2.70 It peaked at $1307.80 on 1/22. $1130.40 is the current 12-month low! 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! RESISTANCE is the 50 day, $1230, the 40 day $1235, then the 200 day at $1250. The 12-month high is $1392.60 on 3/17/14, highest high since 9/4/13. Silver also closed lower at $16.26 -.11. The 200 day ($18.32) is resistance with res at the 50 day, $16.80, and the 40 day, $16.87. $14.12 is the recent low (12/1/14), first time in more than five years!

Crude traded quietly closing at $50.34 -.82. This after plummeting to $47.36 last Wednesday, lowest since 2/5, negating the Greece rally. 1/28’s low was $44.08, lowest since 3/09. $50-52 is again resistance. 12/17’s high was $58.98. Consider: 10/25/14’s high was $84.83. There have been 64!!! handles since peaking at $107.73 on June 13th, highest since 9/19/13, and it is off 59% since then! The record high of $147.27 was on 9/30/08. Res is again the 50 day ($51.62), with support at the 40 day ($49.91), and major res at the 200 day ($82.84). The range is $43.58-$112.24 since 3/1/12. Note that following the financial crisis it traded down to $32.40 on 12/31/08 from a high of $147.27 just three months earlier (-78%!!!). Recall TB’s prediction of a bounce at $43.83? WILL it test that $32.40 March ’09 low?…by the way, the decline from the 9/20/08 high to the low took EXACTLY 6 months – we are now in the 9th month of decline!!!

Have a great day…don’t know how much longer I can do this…not easy! At least it will save some trees!

TB

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