2/18/15…audit the Fed???

TB’s Quote of the Day: “I don’t believe in global warming…and if it is, ignore it…simply normal: New England in latest storm: 8ft! Minnesota’s highest is 4’ – 41 years ago! Just ignore it!

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “It’s not what you look at that matters, it’s what you see.” – Henry David Thoreau

Overnight Global Markets:

Global equity markets higher ex-UK, led by Japan: UK -0.3% vs +0.5% vs +0.6% vs +0.1% vs -0.3%; France +0.7% vs +0.3% vs +0.7% vs +1.1% vs +1% vs 1.3%!!! Germany +0.4% vs -0.1% vs +0.6% vs +1.6%!!! vs +0.7% vs -1.8%; Japan +1.2% vs -0.1% vs -0.4% vs +1.9%!!! vs -0.3% vs +0.4%; Hang Seng +0.2% vs +0.2% vs +1.1%! vs +0.4% vs –; Korea closed vs +0.2% vs +0.8% vs -0.2% vs -0.6%; India +0.6% vs closed vs +1% vs +1% vs +0.5% vs -1.7%!!! U.S. equity futures weaker: DOW -17 (range 57); SPX -3.40 (7) NDQ -2.25 (12). Market opening: Dow -31; Dow Transports +6; Dow Utilities +1; S&P -6; Composite -2.40; NDQ 100 -3.10.

Global Money Markets: Libor: 0.256% 3 mos; 0.381%; 6 mos – watch…but still not far off their recent record lows! The Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% and is now 0.12-0.14% – 0.14% is the 9-month high! T-Bills: 0.01%, 1 mo; 0.01%, 3 mos; 0.07% 6 mos; 0.22% 1-yr – 0.25% is the 12-month high!

U.S. Treasury Bonds began lower but are now up on the session: 10’s 2.12% +3/16; 30’s 2.70% +7/16; Long TIP: 0.82% +1-1/16. Let us (continue to) pray!

European Bond yields mixed and turbulent!!! Germany 0.38% +1; UK 1.83% +7!!!; France 0.70% +1; Italy 1.62% -4; Spain 1.56% -3; Portugal 2.27% -7!; Greece 9.63% -27! This after trading over 10.98% a new high on 1/30!?! Volatile!!! How can anyone trade it??? Why would they??? Guess they feel lucky! Recent range is: 7.03% to 10.98%!!! – cycle low: 5.42%; Crisis high: 12.57%. Japan: 0.40% +1; low is 0.19%!

Dollar Index coming back overnight, a day after taking out support at 94. Recent low is 93.25 on 2/3. Now 94.29 +.23. 1/26’s 95.527 was highest since 9/30/03! Euro slightly weaker at 1.1376 -.0013. 1/26’s 1.1098 – an 11-year low!!! Sterling 1.5428 +.0004. Friday’s high was 1.5440. Bottomed out 1/26 at $1.4952, with critical support at $1.48, a double-bottom from 3/29-31/2013! Yen WEAK at 119.28 –0.01, after trading to 120.48 on 2/12! 1/15’s 115.86 was best since 12/17/14’s 115.57 – weak since peak Oct. ’14: 105.23; recent best 2/4/14 @ 100.76!!! Record: 12/30/11: 75.35!!!

Commodities: Gold is dead in the water (DIW) after Tuesday’s beating: $1208.90 -.30, with support at $1203. The 50 day ($1230) is now first resistance. Silver ditto: $16.49 +.11. Tuesday’s low was $16.26. Crude is lower at $52.99 -.53, with sup at the 50 day $52.20 – session low is $51.91! 2/11’s low was $47.36, lowest since 2/5.

Tuesday’s Market Summary:

NOTE: Minutes of last FOMC meeting released today…the GOP Congress wants to audit the Fed. Excuse me…the audit should be on the idiots running Congress!

TB is tired of trying to rationalize the market moves so he will just say this: it is all on the day traders. Why? Volume slipped to 3.35B shares while shares traded on the NYSE floor closed at 780M BUT with volume at the closing bell of just 600M shares! 180M on the close is HUGE for any session! A/D’s were mixed while Breadth were modestly positive. New highs were sharply lower at 297 while new lows stagnated yet again. The S&P VIX however ROSE, on a mostly slightly higher session??? This is another HUGE warning!

All indices ran from flat (NDQ 100) to +0.2%, except Dow Utilities, -0.1%

The ytd scoreboard remains volatile (can’t recall ever seeing this before): Dow 30 +1.3%; Dow Transports -1%; Dow Utilities -4%; S&P 500 +2%; Nasdaq Comp +2%; NDQ 100 +3.5%; Russell 2000 +1.7%. NYSE Financials -0.3%: KBW Banks -1.8%; Nasdaq Banks -1.4%. Philly Gold/Silver +8.8% from nearly +13%!!!

Total NYSE Volume declined again to a weak 3.35B shares vs 3.52B vs 3.78B vs 3.57B vs 3.63B vs 3.44B – ytd low is 2.7B on Jan. 2; while 12/24’s 1.4B shares is the 12-month low. Shares traded on the NYSE floor rose slightly to 780M shares (but with 180M on the close!) vs 760M vs 803M vs 750M vs 779M shares – 1.22B on 1/30 is highest since 8/8/11!!! – 646M is the ytd low while 12/24’s 349M is the 12-month low…average is 745M shares! Since 1/5 the average is 850M shares and steadily declining! The Dec. average peaked at 979M shares on Dec. 22nd.

Advance/Declines were mixed! NYSE: -1.3x vs +1.7x vs +3.3x! vs -1.2x vs +1.3x; Nasdaq +1.3x vs +1.8x vs +2.4x vs -1.2x vs +1.6x. Breadth was modestly positive: NYSE +1.3x vs +1.9x vs +5x!!! vs -1.3x vs +1.5x; Nasdaq +2x vs +2x vs +2.7x vs +1.3x vs +2.8x. New 52 Week Highs were sharply lower at 297 vs 346 vs 325 vs 186 vs 148 vs 108 – their range for the last 12 mos. is 39-612!!! New Lows stable at a WEAK 39 vs 41 vs 37 vs 83 vs 78 – 2015 high is 386 (12/16’s high was 712!!!) The 12-month range is 24-1043!!! S&P VIX ROSE to 15.80 +1.11, from the 1owest since 12/26, and back above the 200 day (14.63). Range: 15.53-16.33 – gapped up! The recent high is 12/16’s 25.20, second only to 10/17’s (31.06!) – highest since 11/2/11!!! Average of the past 12 months is 14.63, with a low of 10.28!…high close was 26.25 on 10/15/14!

U.S. Bond Market closed weak yet again. That is the 8th straight weak session since setting new low yields on 2/4 on Greece: 10’s 2.14% -3/4 (1.64% low yield); 30’s 2.73% -1-5/8 (2.22% low); Long TIP 0.86% -1-1/8 (0.49% low!).

Gold crashed through Thursday’s ‘double bottom’ at $1217.80, and tagged $1203.30, lowest since 1/6 before bouncing to close at $1208.60 -$18.50. It peaked at $1307.80 on 1/22. $1130.40 is the current 12-month low! 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! RESISTANCE is the 50 day, $1230, the 40 day $1235, then the 200 day at $1251. The 12-month high is $1392.60 on 3/17/14, highest high since 9/4/13. Silver also put in a low16.26 yesterday destroying the $16.61 set last Thursday It closed at $16.38 -.91. The 200 day ($18.32) is resistance with res at the 50 day, $16.80, and the 40 day, $16.87. $14.12 is the recent low (12/1/14), first time in more than five years!

Crude continued to rally closing at $53.53 +.78. This after plummeting to $47.36 last Wednesday, lowest since 2/5, negating the Greece rally. 1/28’s low was $44.08, lowest since 3/09. $50-52 is again resistance. 12/17’s high was $58.98. Consider: 10/25/14’s high was $84.83. There have been 64!!! handles since peaking at $107.73 on June 13th, highest since 9/19/13, and it is off 59% since then! The record high of $147.27 was on 9/30/08. Support is the 50 day ($52.20), then the 40 day ($50.08), with res at the 200 day ($83.32). The range is $43.58-$112.24 since 3/1/12. Note that following the financial crisis it traded down to $32.40 on 12/31/08 from a high of $147.27 just three months earlier (-78%!!!). Recall TB’s prediction of a bounce at $43.83? WILL it test that $32.40 March ’09 low?…by the way, the decline from the 9/20/08 high to the low took EXACTLY 6 months – we are now in the 9th month of decline!!!

Have a great day but beware of FOMC minutes today and Friday’s options expiration!!

TB

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