2/5/14…as Jackie O. would say, “beware of Greeks bearing gifts.”

TB’s Wine Quote of the Day: “Wining and dining is for thinkers…’whining ’ is for idiots.” TB

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “I generally avoid temptation unless I can’t resist it.” – Mae West

Overnight Global Markets:

European equity markets weaker for a second day following the Greek concessions they later reneged on, Asia mixed; Japan weak: UK -0.2% vs -0.6% vs +1.1% vs – vs 0.5%; France –0.1% vs -0.3% vs +1.1% vs –0.2% vs -0.7%; Germany –0.1% vs -0.4% vs +0.7% vs +0.4% vs -0.5%; Japan -1% vs +2%!!! vs -1.3%!!! vs -0.7% vs +0.4% vs -1.1%!; Hang Seng +0.4% vs +0.5% vs +0.3% vs –0.1% vs -0.4% vs -1.1%! Korea -0.5% vs +0.6% vs – vs +0.2% vs -0.1%; India -0.1% vs -0.4% vs -0.4% vs -0.2% vs -1.7%!!! vs +0.4% vs +1%. U.S. equity futures rallying…why??? DOW +102 (range 187); SPX +13.60 (25) NDQ +19 (45).

Global Money Markets: Libor: 0.255% 3 mos; 0.359%; 6 mos – inching up!…but still near their recent record lows! The Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% and is now 0.12-0.13% – 0.14% is the 9-month high! T-Bills: 0.01%, 1 mo; 0.01%, 3 mos; 0.05% 6 mos; 0.19% 1-yr – 0.25% is the 12-month high!

U.S. Treasury Bonds are volatile and unpredictable in the wake of Greek fiasco; since we traded at new post-crisis lows not seen since the ‘50’s, avoid until it plays out: 10’s 1.82% -9/16; 30’s 2.40% -1-9/16; Long TIP: 0.59% -1 pt (the most vulnerable, IMHO)

European Bonds: little changed except Greece which is getting slammed – fools! Germany 0.37% –; UK 1.53% –; France 0.59% –; Italy 1.55% +1; Spain 1.46% +4; Portugal 2.46% –; Greece 9.92%!!! +53!!!: Recent range is: 7.03% to 10.79%!!! – cycle low: 5.42%; Crisis high: 12.57%. Japan: 0.35% -2; low is 0.19%!

Dollar Index relatively quiet for a 2nd day following the reaction to Greece’s ‘dramatic’ move. Last Monday’s 95.527 is highest since 9/30/03! Currently 93.96 -.03. Euro slightly weaker: 1.1409 -.0023, following last Monday’s 1.1098 – an 11-year low!!! Sterling 1.5287 +.0043, and a new high $1.5291, after bottoming out last Monday at $1.4952, with critical support at $1.48, a double-bottom from 3/29-31/2013! Yen stabilizing at $117.47 +0.05, in quiet trading – support is 119, the 40/50 day m/a’s! 1/15’s 115.86 was best since 12/17/14’s 115.57 – weak since peak Oct. ‘14: 105.23; recent best 2/4/14 @ 100.76!!! Record: 12/30/11: 75.35!!!

Commodities: Gold waffling at $1263.30 -.50 in another tight range; last Thursday it bounced off the 200 day ($1253.62). Silver slightly weaker but still non-plussed by Gold’s problems and is currently $17.30 -.10 with an o/n high of $17.50. Crude is trading lower in a narrow range after squandering Tuesday’s Greek rally and is currently $49.62 +$1.17 with support/resistance at $51.73; o/n high just $49.87!!! Caveat emptor! That goes for gas too! Those higher prices will not hold.

Wednesday’s Market Summary:

What Greece giveth, Greece taketh away…but didn’t TB tell you that would happen? As the saying goes, “it’s hard to bluff when all you have are a pair of deuces.” TB doesn’t think they have that: take away the Euro and everyone in Greece would use what money they have left to buy Bitcoins! Consider yesterday when the Dow (which up almost from the opening while the other indices sat slightly in the red), plunging in the final 20 minutes to close +6 as it dove from the session high of 17782, +115! The rest of the indices were down – not significantly but down nevertheless, which negated the value of Tuesday’s nice rally. Worst performer was Dow Utilities (finally!) -1.2%. S&P 500 -0.4%, ALL of the others were off 0.2% – spooky! NYSE Financials fell -0.5%, with both bank indices -0.6% while NYSE Brokers closed +0.2%.

Total NYSE Volume slipped back to 4.12B shares from 4.6B vs 3.98B vs 4.54B vs 4.1B vs 4B – ytd low is 2.7B on Jan. 2; while 12/24’s 1.4B shares is the 12-month low. Shares traded on the NYSE floor were slightly lower at a high 900M shares vs 981M (2nd highest of ’15) vs 912M vs 1.22B (highest since 8/8/11!!!) vs 863M – 646M is the ytd low while 12/24’s 349M is the 12-month low…average is 742M shares! Since 1/5 the average is 869M shares. The average for Dec. peaked at 979M shares on Dec. 22nd.

Advance/Declines were negative for the 10th time in 17 sessions! NYSE: -1.8x vs +3.8x! vs +2.7x vs -2x vs +2.1x; Nasdaq -1.6x vs +2.7x vs +1.8x vs -2.9x! vs +2.0x vs -3.1x! Breadth mixed: NYSE -1.9x vs +7.4x!!! vs +4.5x! vs -2.6x vs +1.5x vs -8.7x!!! Nasdaq +1.04x$ vs +3.8x! vs +2.4x vs -3.1x!!! vs +2.1x vs -2.7x. New 52 Week Highs fell back to 215 vs 290 vs 239 vs 294 vs 457 – their range for the last 12 mos. is 39-612!!! New Lows were steady at 58 vs 55 vs 162 vs 275 vs 187 – 2015 high is 386 (12/16’s high was 712!!!) The 12-month range is 24-1043!!! S&P VIX traded with a lower low and lower high of 16.82-18.38 before closing at 18.33 +1.00 – but you knew it was too good to last, right? The recent high is 12/16’s 25.20, second only to 10/17’s (31.06!) – highest since 11/2/11!!! Average of the past 12 months is 14.59 and slowly climbing, with a low of 10.28!…high close was 26.25 on 10/15/14!

U.S. Bond Market trade weak all session then came back on the Greek reneg to regains some of Tuesday’s huge losses – don’t bet against them…yet! 10’s 1.75% +3/8 (1.64% low yield); 30’s 2.35% +3/4 (2.22% new low!); Long TIP 0.56%!!! +1-13/16 (0.49% new low!). Watch closely!

Gold was lethargic, licking it wounds after being hammered Tuesday, following Friday’s biggest daily gain to the high since 2012 ($28.10) on Friday, but well below the highs of a week ago. This was its SIXTH straight lower high since peaking at $1307.80 on 1/22 – this inside session (3 in the last 4!) closed at $1264.50 +$4.20. Last Thursday’s low was $1251.00, $3 BELOW the 200 day ($1254) and the close of $1254.60 was lowest since 1/14 when the rally began. 11/7’s low, $1130.40 is the current 12-month low! 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! Support is the 200 day, $1254, followed by the 40 day $1231, and the 50 day at $1225, both slowing rising. The 12-month high is $1392.60 on 3/17/14, highest high since 9/4/13. Silver has de-linked from gold and closed at $17.40 +.11. The 200 day ($18.46) is resistance with support at the 40 day, $16.78, then the 50 day, $16.70. $14.12 is the recent low (12/1/14), first time in more than five years!

Crude proved that Tuesday’s rally which traded up to $54.24 was just SHORT-COVERING – can you blame them??? It had an ‘inside’ session, closing at $48.45 -$4.60!!! and could only manage to get to $52.56 intraday! Last Thursday’s new low was $44.08, lowest since 3/09. $50-52 is now resistance/support. 12/17’s high was $58.98. Consider: 10/25/14’s high was $84.83. There have been 64!!! handles since peaking at $107.73 on June 13th, highest since 9/19/13, and if is off 59% since then! The record high of $147.27 was on 9/30/08. RES at the 40 day ($51.66!!!), then the 50 day ($55.37!!!), and lastly the 200 day ($85.30) – all continue to fall and WILL eventually becoming support – albeit the hard way! The range is now $43.58-$112.24 since 3/1/12. Note that following the financial crisis it traded down to $32.40 on 12/31/08 from a high of $147.27 just three months earlier (-78%!!!). Recall TB’s prediction of a bounce at $43.83? It WILL test that $32.40 March ’09 low…by the way the decline from the 9/20/08 high to the low took EXACTLY 6 months – we are now in the 8th month of decline!!!

Have a great day! Beware of Greeks bearing ‘gifts’.

TB

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: