2/3/15…it’s all due to Greece!!! also commentary on climate change!

TB’s Wine Quote of the Day: “My wife said I had to either stop buying wine or she would leave me. I’m sure going to miss that woman.” – Trader Bill

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “When someone ‘shows’ you who they are, believe them the first time.” – Maya Angelou…a brilliant person (man OR woman!)

Overnight Global Markets:

European equity markets STRONG on Greek capitulation to the EU, Asia mixed: UK +1.1% vs – vs 0.5% vs -0.5% vs -0.1%; France +1.1% vs –0.2% vs -0.7% vs -0.1% vs -0.4%; Germany +0.7% vs +0.4% vs -0.5% vs +0.1% vs +0.4%; Japan -1.3%!!! vs -0.7% vs +0.4% vs -1.1%! vs +0.2%; Hang Seng +0.3% vs –0.1% vs -0.4% vs -1.1%! vs +0.2%; Korea – vs +0.2% vs -0.1% vs -0.5% vs +0.9%; India -0.4% vs -0.2% vs -1.7%!!! vs +0.4% vs +1%. U.S. equity futures higher but not like Europe: DOW +64 (range 36); SPX +7.60 (20) NDQ +9.25 (38) – Don’t jump in on this!!!

Global Money Markets: Libor: 0.253% 3 mos; 0.357%; 6 mos – still hovering near their recent record lows! The Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% and is now 0.12-0.14% – 0.14% is the 9-month high! T-Bills: 0.00%, 1 mo; 0.02%, 3 mos; 0.07% 6 mos; 0.15% 1-yr – highest since their 0.25% – the 12-month high!

U.S. Treasury Bonds pounded overnight along with EU bonds due to Greece backing down, but not enough to cause concern (yet): 1.74% -3/4; 30’s 2.33% -1-7/8!; Long TIP: 0.60% -2-1/8 – TIPS went crazy Friday, back to reality…there is NO reason to own them…and they aren’t for amateurs!

European Bonds: higher, after the industrial nations hit more new lows late yesterday, after Greek government retreated from debt writedown demand (idiots!). PIIGS are rallying, led by Greece which DOVE 125bp’s overnight – don’t be deceived, Greece is a powder keg!!! Germany 0.34% +3; UK 1.45% +7; France 0.56% +2; Italy 1.56% -6!; Spain 1.42% -6!; Portugal 2.54% -11!!!; Greece 9.30% DOWN 132bp’s!!! – after hitting a new recent high Monday: 7.03% to 10.79%!!! – cycle low: 5.42%; Crisis high: 12.57%. Japan: 0.36% +8!!!; low is 0.19%!

Dollar Index diving thanks to the idiots in charge in Greece. LAST Monday’s 95.527 is highest since 9/30/03! Currently 93.94 -.56 near session low of 93.893. Euro benefitting most: 1.1446 +.0096 – session high $1.1449, following last Monday’s 1.1098 – an 11-year low!!! Sterling 1.5101 +.0045, high $1.1519, after bottoming out last Monday at $1.4952, with critical support at $1.48, a double-bottom from 3/29-31/2013! Yen bearing the brunt at $117.65 +.17 with a low of 117.75 – support is 119, the 40/50 day m/a’s! 1/15’s 115.86 was best since 12/17/14’s 115.57 – weak since peak Oct. ‘14: 105.23; recent best 2/4/14 @ 100.76!!! Record: 12/30/11: 75.35!!!

Commodities: Gold bleeding along with bonds on Greece. Traded down to $1263.30 and is now $1265.70 -$11.20; last Thursday it bounced off the 200 day ($1253.97). Silver oblivious to Gold’s problems is $17.28 +.03 in a narrow range following Friday’s bounce off the 200 day ($16.76). Crude is STRONG but still shy of meaningful res at $51.73 with a session high of $51.55 and currently $51.13 +$1.56, following its retrace from the 1/29 low of $43.58: first the plunge in rig count, and now Greece! Caution!!!

Monday’s Market Summary:

You have to wonder if stock investors pay attention to the economic data…or just look at it…do a knee-jerk trade off the headline numbers…and say ‘to hell with it’ – I’m all in! Monday was one of those days! Stocks started out weak…rallied after the first half hour, made modest gains by about two hours in, then slipped, attempted to bounce twice before running the table into the close o that all indices were up from 0.9% (Russell 2000 and NDQ 100) to 1.4% (Dow Transports). But shouldn’t the two Nasdaqs and RTY done the best? The S&P 500 was up 1.3% and the Dow +1.1% – smacks of shortcovering or making a bet but not real long-term buyers. Dow Utilities continued their streak +0.4%.

NYSE Volume fell from 4.54B shares (on a BIG down day), to 3.98B shares (you never want to see this on a rally following a disaster like Friday! By the way volume rose steadily all day then surged at the closing bell. To illustrate, NYSE shares traded on the floor decline to an above average 912M shares, nearly 200M above average, from a huge 1.22B shares Friday. At yesterday’s closing bell it stood at 737M shares with about 180 million ON the close! If you think those were investors, rethink it!

Next, look at the highs on SPX over the last three sessions beginning last Thursday: 2024; 2023. 2021 – that is not opportunity knocking that is heavy resistance, especially when Wednesday’s high was 2042 – it FOURTH straight LOWER HIGH! This doesn’t even qualify as a ‘dead cat bounce’. Stay clear…unless there is a ‘real’ breakout! A/D’s and Breadth were solid – on the NYSE, less so on Nasdaq (another warning sign), and both new highs and lows declined. The VIX Finally declined but only after a new recent high of 22.81 and STILL closed at a very bearish 19.43 -1.5. Buy at your own peril.

Total NYSE Volume dropped back to an average of late 3.98B shares vs 4.54B shares vs 4.1B vs 4B vs 3.31B, a low 2nd only to Jan.2. – 12/24’s 12-month low was 1.4B shares. Shares traded on the NYSE floor remained strong (912M), but were dwarfed by Friday’s 1.22B shares (highest since 8/8/11!!!) vs 863M vs 856M vs 711M – 2nd lowest of ’15 – 976M shares was the prior 2015 high. 12/24’s 349M was the 12-month low…average is 741M shares! Since 1/5 the average is 862M shares – vs 840M last Thursday! The average for Dec. peaked at 979M shares on Dec. 22nd and has been declining steadily.

Advance/Declines were positive but only solidly on NYSE and have only been positive for 6 times in 15 sessions! NYSE: +2.7x vs -2x vs +2.1x vs -2.8x vs -1.3x; Nasdaq +1.8x vs -2.9x! vs +2.0x vs -3.1x! vs -1.7x; Breadth was similar: NYSE +4.5x! vs -2.6x vs +1.5x vs -8.7x!!! vs -1.8x; Nasdaq +2.4x vs -3.1x!!! vs +2.1x vs -2.7x vs -2.4x; New 52 Week Highs fell again to 239 vs 294 vs 457 vs 374 vs 369 – their range for the last 12 mos. is 39-612!!! New Lows plummeted to 162 vs 275 vs 187 vs 100 vs 117 – 2015 high is 386 (12/16’s high was 712!!!) The 12-month range is 24-1043!!! S&P VIX climed to a new recent high of 22.81 early in the session before settling back down and closed at 19.43 -1.54, just off the session low of 19.35 which is STILL VERY BEARISH!!! The session high was highest since 12/16’s 25.20, second only to 10/17’s (31.06!) – highest since 11/2/11!!! Average of the past 12 months is 14.58 and steadily climbing, with a low of 10.28!…high close was 26.25 on 10/15/14!

U.S. Bond Market closed weaker but still ahead of the prior low yields eradicated by Friday’s STRONG rallyi: 10’s 1.67% -14 (1.64% low yield); 30’s 2.25% -5/8 (2.22% new low!); Long TIP 0.53% -1-1/8 (0.49% new low!). Watch closely!

Gold had its biggest daily gain to the high since 2012 ($28.10) on Friday but look at the highs since Wednesday (its FOURTH straight lower high since peaking at $1307.80 on 1/22 – and its only close above $1300 since 8/15/14!): $1285.40, $1284.30. $1284.10 – thus creating heavy resistance!– it was also a 2nd straight ‘inside’ session, closing at $1276.20 -$3.00. Last Thursday’s low was $1251.00, $3 BELOW the 200 day ($1254) and the close of $1254.60 was lowest since 1/14 when the rally began. 11/7’s low, $1130.40 is the current 12-month low! 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! Support is now the 200 day, $1254, followed by the 40 day $1228, and the 50 day at $1222. The 12-month high is $1392.60 on 3/17/14, highest high since 9/4/13. Silver closed Monday at $17.25 +.04 in an ‘inside’ session. The 200 day ($18.46) is resistance with support at the 40 day, $16.78, then the 50 day, $16.70. $14.12 is the recent low (12/1/14), first time in more than five years!

Crude traded up to $50.56 before settling at $49.57 +1.33. That was the highest print since 1/15, two days after setting yet another a new 12-month low of $43.58. Last Thursday’s new low was $44.08, still lowest since 3/09; real or Memorex? Hint: it was skidding along the bottom when the number was released AND wasn’t a key reversal. Remember the ‘negative’ one from 1/22 that precipitated the selloff! $50-52 remains formidable resistance. 12/17’s high was $58.98. Consider: 10/25/14’s high was $84.83. There have been 64!!! handles since peaking at $107.73 on June 13th, highest since 9/19/13, and if is off 59% since then! The record high of $147.27 was on 9/30/08. RES at the 40 day ($52.44!!!), then the 50 day ($56.34!!!), and lastly the 200 day ($85.84) – all continue to fall and will someday (?) be support – albeit the hard way! The range is now $43.58-$112.24 since 3/1/12. Note that following the financial crisis it traded down to $32.40 on 12/31/08 from a high of $147.27 just three months earlier (-78%!!!). So much for TB’s prediction of a bounce at $43.83, and a a test of that $32.40 March ’09 low looks like it could well occur…by the way that decline from the 9/20/08 high to the low took EXACTLY 6 months – we are now in the 8th month of decline!!!

 

Some Random Thoughts:

If you didn’t see it you have to watch Frontline, on climate change, here is the link:

Climate of Doubt. If you do, look at the other related ones. Faux scientists abound while 98% of the recognized scientists support climate change as a major problem that must be addressed. As a commentator remarked: if you got opinions from 100 doctors and 98 said you needed treatment, but TWO doctors said you were okay…which would you listen to?

Note the ‘scientist’s who call it ‘bunk’ are not even scientists for the most part but ‘hired guns’ who previously supported the tobacco industry, claim no damage from ‘second-hand smoke’, and the list goes on. THIS folks, is why TB is no longer a Republican! It is under the control of big business (who doesn’t want a carbon tax, or more regulation); wealthy individuals – predominantly the Koch brothers, and others who are self-serving.

All that is being asked is that we DO SOMETHING. The risks are too high…and to refuse to even promote more research is sick. We have already made our kids the first in this nations history to be worse off than we are…now we want to destroy the rest of their quality of life. Excuse me, not WE but the greedy bastards in control of the GOP. SICK!

Sorry for the rant…now have a great day, but THINK for yourself and your descendants!

TB

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