1/28/15…and the beat (confusion?) goes on…and on…

TB’s Wine Quote of the Day: “I said we will sell no wine before its time…and BofA said: it’s time! – Nichols of Far Niente when asked why they were releasing their wine early.

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Our character is what we do when we think no one is looking.”  – H. Jackson Brown, Jr.

Overnight Global Markets:

European equity markets mixed, Asia slightly better: UK -0.1% vs -1%! vs – vs +0.2% vs 0.3%; France -0.4% vs -1.5%! vs +0.4% vs +1.7%! vs +0.7%; Germany +0.4% vs -1.4%! vs +0.9% vs +1.9%!!! vs +0.4%; Japan +0.2% vs +1.7%!!! vs -0.3% vs +1.1% vs +0.3%; Hang Seng +0.2% vs -0.4% vs +0.2% vs +1.3% vs +0.7%; Korea +0.9% vs – vs +0.8% vs flat vs +0.2%; India +1% vs closed vs +0.9% vs +0.4% vs +1.9%! U.S. equity futures mixed and bizarre: DOW +19 (range 14); SPX +6 (17?); NDQ +42!?! (32). What a dislocation!

Global Money Markets: Libor: 0.256% 3 mos.; 0.355%; 6 mos. – still hovering near their recent record lows! The Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% and is 0.12-0.14%, still at the 9-month high. T-Bills: 0.02%, 1 mo; 0.02%, 3 mos; 0.07% 6 mos.; 0.15% 1-yr. – back from 0.25% – the 12-month high, like watching paint dry!

U.S. Treasury Bonds: slightly higher: 10’s 1.80% +3/16; 30’s 2.38% +9/16; Long TIP: 0.61% +11/16.

European Bonds: Yields rising across the board with big moves in the PIIGS, …especially Greece!!! Germany 0.38% -0; UK 1.49% +1 (low is 1.46%); France 0.59% +2; Italy 1.63% +11!; Spain 1.47% +9!; Portugal 2.62% +20!!!; Greece 10.15%!!! +92!!! – recent range: 7.03% to 10.29%!!! – cycle low: 5.42%; Crisis high: 12.57%. Japan: 0.28% +3 – low is 0.19%!

Dollar Index little changed weaker o/n following Monday’s 95.527, highest since 9/30/03! Currently 94.11 +.09. Euro: $1.1362 –, following Monday’s 1.1098 – an 11-year low!!! Sterling 1.5208 –, continues to slowly improve from Monday’s $1.4952, with critical support at $1.48, a double-bottom from 3/29-31/2013! Yen hanging in at 11782 +.10 – support is 119, the 40/50 day m/a’s! 1/15’s 115.86 was best since 12/17/14’s 115.57 – weak since peak Oct. ‘14: 105.23; recent best 2/4/14 @ 100.76!!! Record: 12/30/11: 75.35!!!

Commodities: Gold slightly weaker overnight and seems unwilling to go at $1300 again, currently $1291.30 -1.70, in a VERY narrow $8 range! Caution! Silver hanging in just above $18 at $18.04 -.05 with just an $18.11 high. Crude is at $45.57 -.66, in another narrow range session (69 cents!?!).

Tuesday’s Market Summary:

Following futures lead, after the disastrous 3.4% decline in Durable Orders in Dec., stocks plummeted at the open and at one point the Dow was -391 points! It only was able to get back to -237 before it just slumped into the close: -291, or1.7%. But the daily goat award goes to the NDQ 100 +2.6%!!! followed by the Composite -1.9%; S&P 500 -1.3%; Dow Transports -1.2%; while the Russell 2000 miraculously escaped -0.5%? Only winner was Dow Utilities (natch) +0.2%. NYSE Financials lost 0.8% – so much for bouncing back!

Total NYSE Volume slipped yet gain to 3.31B shares, 2nd only to Jan.2, vs 3.4B vs 3.6B vs 4.1B vs 3.64B vs 3.9B vs 4B vs 4.18B vs 4.37B – 12/24’s 12-month low was 1.4B shares. Shares traded on the NYSE floor also plunged to 711M shares (now 2nd lowest of ’15) vs 796M vs 785M shares vs 890M – 976M shares is the ‘15 high. 12/24’s 349M was the 12-month low…average is 738M shares! Since 1/5 the average is 837M shares – still heavily waited to the downside and slowly declining. The average for Dec. peaked at 979M shares on Dec. 22nd and has been declining steadily.

Advance/Declines were negative for the 7th time in 11 sessions. NYSE: -1.3x vs +2.2x vs -1.2x vs +3.5x! vs +1.7x; Nasdaq -1.7x vs +1.8x vs -1.3x vs +2.7x vs -1.4x; Breadth was worse: NYSE -1.8x vs +2.7x vs -2x vs +4.2x!!! vs +2.8x; Nasdaq -2.4x vs +1.9x vs +1.3x vs +3.7x!!! vs +1.3x. New 52 Week Highs rose slightly to 374 vs 369 vs 433 vs 259 vs 200 – their range for the last 12 mos. is 39-612!!! New Lows dropped to 100 vs 117 vs 112 vs 122 vs 177 vs 237 – 2015 high is 386 (12/16’s high was 712!!!) The 12-month range is 24-1043!!! S&P VIX reversed yet again closing at a very bearish 17.27 +1.70!!! The range was 16.67-18.41! Last Thursday’s high was highest since 12/16’s 25.20, which was second only to 10/17’s (31.06!) – highest since 11/2//11!!! Average of the past 12 months is 14.55 and steadily climbing, with a low of 10.28!…high close was 26.25 on 10/15/14!

U.S. Bond Market closed little changed after rallying early, then declining but ending the session almost even: 10’s 1.82% +1/32 (1.72% low yield); 30’s 2.40% –1/16 (2.36%); Long TIP 0.63% -1/32 (0.57%). Flattening now? No where to go?

Gold closed higher at $1292.90 +$12.50, but the high failed to even touch $1300; $1297.40! Last Thursday’s high was $1307.80, highest since 8/19/14 – and the ONLY close above $1300 since 8/15/14! Res again at $1300-02, with support at the 200 day ($1255) again! 11/7’s low, $1130.40 is the current 12-month low! 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! Next support will be the 50 day $1224, followed by the 40 day at $1221 – they crossed! The 12-month high is $1392.60 on 3/17/14, highest high since 9/4/13. Silver, closed at $18.08; the 200 day ($18.54) remains a res. $14.12 is the recent low (12/1/14), not seen in more than five years!

Crude, which hit $51.27 last Thursday, highest since 1/5, had a very narrow range session closing at $46.23 +$1.08, two days after trading down to $44.35, just 15 cents off the low, still smarting from last Thursday’s ‘negative’ key reversal! The pain trade is still not over as $50-52 remains formidable resistance. Tuesday’s low was $44.20, lowest since 3/09. 12/17’s high was $58.98 Consider: 10/25/14’s high was $84.83. There have been 63!!! handles since peaking at $107.73 on June 13th, highest since 9/19/13, and if is off 57% since then! The record high of $147.27 was on 9/30/08. RES at the 40 day ($54.48!!!), then the 50 day ($58.60!!!), and lastly the 200 day ($86.88) – all continuing to fall and will someday be support – albeit the hard way! The range is $44.20-$112.24 since 3/1/12. Note that following the financial crisis it traded down to $32.40 on 12/31/08 from a high of $147.27 just three months earlier (-78%!!!). TB’s bet? $43.83, or else…that is the June 2009 low if that fails, a test of that $32.40 low…by the way the decline from the 9/20/08 high to the low took EXACTLY 6 months – we are now in the 7th month of decline!!!

Have a great day but remember: it’s a jungle out there!

TB

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