1/27/15…are you ‘in’…or ‘out’?

TB’s Wine Quote of the Day: “Anyone who tries to make you believe that he knows all about wines is obviously a fake.” – Leon Adams, The Commonsense Book of Wine

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “The whole of science is nothing more than a refinement of everyday thinking.” – Albert Einstein…and another good reason to drink wine! TB

Overnight Global Markets:

Durable Goods Orders DECLINED by 3.4% in December – see o/n stocks below!
European equity markets WEAK, Asia mixed: UK -1%! vs – vs +0.2% vs 0.3% vs +0.7%; France -1.5%! vs +0.4% vs +1.7%! vs +0.7% vs +1.4%; Germany -1.4%! vs +0.9% vs +1.9%!!! vs +0.4% vs +0.3% vs +0.7%; Japan +1.7%!!! vs-0.3% vs +1.1% vs +0.3% vs +2.1%!!! Hang Seng -0.4% vs +0.2% vs +1.3% vs +0.7% vs +1.9%!!! Korea +0.9% vs – vs +0.8% vs flat vs +0.2%; India +1% vs closed vs +0.9% vs +0.4% vs +1.9%!!! U.S. equity futures opened about even then SLAMMED on Durable Goods Orders DECLINE– big time! …just off the lows: DOW -287!!! (range 304!!!); SPX -24!!! (29!!!); NDQ -60!!! (68!!!). What happens when market opens???

Global Money Markets: Libor: 0.256% 3 mos.; 0.354%; 6 mos. – still hovering near their recent record lows! The Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% and is 0.12-0.14%, still at the 9-month high. T-Bills: 0.02%, 1 mo; 0.02%, 3 mos; 0.07% 6 mos.; 0.14% 1-yr. – back from 0.25% – the 12-month high, like watching paint dry!

U.S. Treasury Bonds: rallying again with the 30-year setting a new low yield with the long TIP close behind: 10’s 1.77% +9/16; 30’s 2.34%! +1-1/8!; Long TIP: 0.59% +1-1/8!

European Bonds: Yields rising again except U.K., Germany…especially Greece!!! Germany 0.38%! -1; UK 1.47% -4 (low is 1.46%); France 0.58% –; Italy 1.54% +5; Spain 1.40% +3; Portugal 2.40% +5!; Greece 9.21%!!! +40!!! vs 8.74% +56!!! vs 8.21% -36!!! – recent range: 7.03% to 10.29%!!! – cycle low: 5.42%; Crisis high: 12.57%. Japan: 0.25% +3 – low is 0.19%!

Dollar Index slightly weaker o/n following yesterday’s 95.527, highest since 9/30/03! Currently 94.26 -.54. Euro: $1.1333 +.0052 following Monday’s 1.1098 – an 11-year low!!! Sterling bouncing back to $1.5160 +.0087, from Monday’s $1.4952, with critical support at $1.48, a double-bottom from 3/29-31/2013! Yen also trying a comeback at 117.48 -.54 – support is 119, the 40/50 day m/a’s! 1/15’s 115.86 was best since 12/17/14’s 115.57 – weak since peak Oct. ‘14: 105.23; recent best 2/4/14 @ 100.76!!! Record: 12/30/11: 75.35!!!

Commodities: Gold slightly higher but marketing time at $1282.30 +1.90, in a narrow $12 range. Silver hanging in just below $18 at $17.91 -.07 with just an $18.07 high. Crude is at $45.34 +.19, in a narrow range session.

Monday’s Market Summary:

It was down, it was up, down, back to even, down again, up to its third positive print, then down with a brief upward hiccup, down, and finally closed FLAT: that was the Dow 30. Can’t summarize the rest because they were all out of sync! Top honors went to the Russell 2000 (+1%), followed by Dow Transports (+0.7%), S&P 500 the Nasdaq Composite were up 0.3% – but look: NDQ 100 was DOWN 0.1%???1.3:1 advancing but with some big gainers and big losers – sometimes in the same sector? Confusing! Dow Utilities were up 0.1%. Looking at the ytd scoreboard, Utilities still in control, up 4.9% – in less than a month???; Dow -0.8%; Transports -1.1%; S&P 500 -0.1%; Composite +0.8%; NDQ 100 +0.9%; Russell 2000 -0.3%. Some sectors: KBW Banks -6.8%! Nasdaq Banks -5.5%; NYSE Financials -2.5%. Winners: Biotech +7.9%! REITs +8.7%!; Philly Gold/Silver +15.6%!!! …some gotta win, some gotta lose, Good Time Charlie’s got the blues…

Total NYSE Volume slipped again to a below-average 3.4B shares vs 3.6B vs 4.1B vs 3.64B vs 3.9B vs 4B vs 4.18B vs 4.37B – 12/24’s 12-month low was 1.4B shares. Shares traded on the NYSE floor were a tad higher at 796M shares vs 785M shares vs 890M vs 771M (2nd lowest of ’15) vs 861M vs 976M shares – the ‘15 high. 12/24’s 349M was the 12-month low…average is 738M shares! Since 1/5 the average is 846M shares – still heavily waited to the downside and slowly declining. The average for Dec. peaked at 979M shares on Dec. 22nd and has been declining steadily.

Advance/Declines were positive for only the 4th time in 10 sessions. NYSE: +2.2x vs -1.2x vs +3.5x! vs +1.7x vs -1.6x vs +4.4x! Nasdaq +1.8x vs -1.3x vs +2.7x vs -1.4x vs -1.5x vs +3x! vs -3.5x!!! Breadth was similar: NYSE +2.7x vs -2x vs +4.2x!!! vs +2.8x vs -1.5x vs +6.9x!!!; Nasdaq +1.9x vs +1.3x vs +3.7x!!! vs +1.3x vs 1:1? vs +3.3x! vs -4.9x!!!. New 52 Week Highs fell back to 369 vs 433 vs 259 vs 200 vs 327 – their range for the last 12 mos. is 39-612!!! New Lows slightly higher at 117 vs 112 vs 122 vs 177 vs 237 – 2015 high is 386 (12/16’s high was 712!!!) The 12-month range is 24-1043!!! S&P VIX had a broader range of 15.59-17.43, closing at 15.52 -1.14 – 5 of last 6 sessions lower but still bearish. Thursday’s high is highest since 12/16’s 25.20, which was second only to 10/17’s (31.06!) – highest since 11/2//11!!! Average of the past 12 months is 14.54 and steadily climbing, with a low of 10.28!…high close was 26.25 on 10/15/14!

U.S. Bond Market closed slightly weaker, like the Dow see-sawing throughout the session after opening higher: 10’s 1.83% –1/4 (1.72% low yield); 30’s 2.40% -1/2 (2.36%); Long TIP 0.63% -7/8 (0.57%). The score is now 13 rally days in the last 21.

Gold closed slightly lower at $1280.40 -$2.00, the high barely making $1300. This followed Thursday’s high of $1307.80, highest since 8/19/14! Just one close above $1300 since 8/15/14! (note gold stocks did not benefit). Res again at $1300-02, with support at the 200 day ($1255) again! 11/7’s low, $1130.40 is the current 12-month low! 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! MAJOR SUP at the 200 day $1255, then the 40 day $1218, followed by the 50 day at $1212. The 12-month high is $1392.60 on 3/17/14, highest high since 9/4/13. Silver, closed just below $18; the 200 day ($18.54) remains a res. $14.12 is the recent low (12/1/14), not seen in more than five years!

Crude, which hit $51.27 last Thursday, highest since 1/5, traded down to $44.35, just 15 cents off the low, still smarting from last Thursday’s ‘negative’ key reversal! The pain trade is still not over as $50-52 remains formidable resistance. Tuesday’s low was $44.20, lowest since 3/09. 12/17’s high was $58.98 Consider: 10/25/14’s high was $84.83. There have been 63!!! handles since peaking at $107.73 on June 13th, highest since 9/19/13, and if is off 57% since then! The record high of $147.27 was on 9/30/08. RES at the 40 day ($55.18!!!), then the 50 day ($59.23!!!), and lastly the 200 day ($87.26) – all continuing to fall and will someday be support – albeit the hard way! The range is $44.20-$112.24 since 3/1/12. Note that following the financial crisis it traded down to $32.40 on 12/31/08 from a high of $147.27 just three months earlier (-78%!!!). TB’s bet? $43.83, or else…that is the June 2009 low if that fails, a test of that $32.40 low…by the way the decline from the 9/20/08 high to the low took EXACTLY 6 months – we are now in the 8th month of decline!!!

 

Some Random thoughts:

If you are wealthy, TB gets you being a GOP’er, but if you are middle class, when will it occur to you – as it did to TB, that the party doesn’t give a damn about you, or those even worse off. In fact, all but the wealthy are becoming worse off. Whatcha gonna do about it? …not that the Dems offer much…EXCEPT Elizabeth Warren!!!

TB

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