12/17/14…no too another link in the dynasty! NO!

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “There’s one advantage to being 102 years old. There’s no peer pressure.” – Dennis Wolfberg
Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “In the middle of every difficulty lies opportunity.” -Albert Einstein…or did he mean it the other way around?

Bloomberg Top Stories:
*Consumer Prices in U.S. Decrease by Most in Six Years on Lower Fuel Costs – not good! Especially with Fed Funds at 0.1%!
*S&P 500 Futures Gain With Dollar Before Fed as Europe Stocks, Oil Decline – gain?
*Russia Tries Emergency Measures for a Second Day to Stem Ruble’s Decline
*FedEx Profit Misses Estimates on Plane Maintenance, Lower Fuel Surcharges
*Cuba Frees U.S. Prisoner Gross in Exchange for the Release of Three Cubans
*Citigroup Traders’ Bonus Pool Said to Remain Flat Even Amid Revenue Slump – don’t worry guys…Congress is your friend…bring on those derivatives!
*Crisis in Russia Hits Pimco, Wipes Out Options Contracts After Ruble Slump – oops!
*Currency Trading Getting More Costly as Stresses Extend Beyond Oil, Ruble – !!!
*Apple Halting Web Sales as Renault Raises Prices to Counter Ruble’s Plunge – ?
*UCB Pulls $1.5 Billion Sale of Its Ge4neric-Drug Unit to Two Buyout Firms
*Junk Bond Investors Seen Heading for First Worldwide Loss in Five Years – !!!
*Meningitis Outbreak That Killed 64 People Spurs U.S. Grand Jury Indictment – !

Tuesday’s Market Summary:

Another downer…and this time everything was down…with some peculiarities: Dow Transports which at +0.2% were the only positive Monday, lost 1.3%! The Russell 2000 which was worst performer at -1.1% lost just 0.1% making it yesterday’s BEST performer? Both Nasdaq’s lost yesterday: -1.2% and -1.6% respectively while both lost 1% on Monday!?! Dow Utilities were -0.2% yesterday after losing 0.8% Monday! S&P -0.9% vs -0.6%. This leaves the almighty Dow Industrials which had yet another wild ride. Recapping Monday: it opened strong, going vertical 125 points BUT that was the session high; it then went into steep decline falling 275 points then spent the rest of the session trying to get straight but failed, closing -100 (0.5%). Yesterday, it climbed 150, then hurriedly reversed plunging 250 points from the high and closing -112. Not that THREE of the last four sessions have close at or near the low, and worse, yesterday was a ‘key reversal’ (higher high, lower low and close below the prior day’s low!). THAT is bearish, folks.
Worse, NYSE volume went from a solid 4.38B shares to a HIGH 4.9B shares and again on a DOWN day! Not good. More bad news: A/D’s and Breadth were negative for a third straight day and have been so 4 of the last 5 sessions, the one positive being ‘feeble’ at best. New 52 week highs plummeted from a very weak 78 to an EXTREMELY weak 56, while new lows rose to an extremely high 712!!! Lastly the S&P VIX which had a slight decline Monday to a still very bearish 20.42 rose sharply to 23.57 +3.15 (+15.4%!), with a high of 25.20! Can’t wait for Friday…can you? This ‘could’ be the long awaited REAL correction! Like down 25%?

Total NYSE Volume surged to 4.9B shares!!! vs 4.38B vs 4.16B vs 3.93B vs 4.05B. Average volume since 9/30 remains about 3.6B shares or about 600M more than the 12-month average and finally beginning to rise again!!! Shares traded on the NYSE floor (aka REAL) even higher at 1.02B shares highest since 11/21 – last options expiry!) vs 980M vs 941M vs 824M vs 913M. For comparison purposes, for the prior 12 months it is a historically weak 724M shares, but since 10/1: 824B shares – including a 1.22B (and two more 1B+ share sessions) – highest since 9/19,. The lowest was 11/1’s 619M share session. April 30 – September 30 we had just SEVEN 800M shares…since 10/1: now at 22 – just one in Nov, and EIGHT 900M+ days: that is now FOUR 800M days, THREE 900M and now ONE 1B share day for Dec.

A/D’s were negative for a 3rd day: NYSE: -1.4x vs -3.1x! vs -3.8x!!! vs +1.4x vs -4.6x!!!; Nasdaq -1.2x vs -2.5x vs -2.4x vs +1.5x vs -4.6x!!! Breadth was similar: NYSE -1.2x vs -4.1x! vs -4.7x!!! vs +1.2x vs -15.5x!!! (Unbelievable!); Nasdaq -2.1x vs -3.3x!!! vs -2.6x vs +2.2x vs -2.5x. New 52 Week Highs shriveled to another extremely weak 56!!! vs 78 vs 111 vs 201 vs 215 – their range for the year is 39-612!!! New Lows jumped to an even higher 712!!! vs 640 vs 603 vs 364 vs 460. The 2014 range is 24-1043!!! S&P VIX surged again to 25.20, highest since 10/17 before closing up 15.4% at $23.57 +3.15. Very bearish!!! During the ‘rally’ it only made it to 15.94 – this despite the early rally! We are now nearing those bearish extremes that had a high of 31.06 (highest since 11/28/11!!!), and now a big possibility with options expiry this Friday! The average of the past 12 months is 14.05, with a low of 10.28!…high close of 26.25 on 10/15/14!

U.S. bond market closed strong with more new 12-month lows! Note on 12/2, the 30 yr bottomed at 3.01%. Updating the recent 12 month low yields (10’s 2.06%!; 30’s 2.69%! and long TIP 0.76%!!!), 10’s closed at 2.06% +9/16; 30’s 2.69% +1-3/16, and the long TIP 0.76% +2 points!!! Overnight, for a 2nkd straight day reversing much of the prior session highs! 10’s 2.10% -3/8; 30’s 2.74% -1 point!; long TIP 0.80% also -1 point!
Libor update: 0.243% 3 mos.; 0.341% 6 mos. Both not far off their recent record lows! The Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% and is currently 0.11-0.12%? – back from 0.13%, a 9-month high. T-Bills: 0.02% one-month; 0.03% 3 mos; 0.20%!!! – why did it rise?
Foreign bond yields little changed and mixed (Benchmark is 10yr): Germany 0.59% -1; UK 1.78% +1; France 0.89% +1; Italy 2.02% +1; Spain 1.81% +2; Portugal 2.91% +1; Greece 8.75% vs 8.78% (8.88% intraday) vs 8.58%! vs 8.88%!!! vs 8.70%! vs 8.24%! vs 7.71% vs 7.03%, -3. Not for the faint of heart! 10/16’s close was 8.54%! – cycle low: 5.42%; Crisis high: 12.57%. Japan: 0.35% –.

Gold closed WEAK now lowing $28 in two sessions and traded down to $1192.70 for only 2nd time since 12/2 before closing at $1193.90 -$13.30! – $1200 is again resistance! Rally’s over…right? Last week’s intraday high was $1238.00 – highest since 10/22/ This ended its seven straight $1200+ closes since 12/5 when the selloff began. Back below the 40/50 day again! 11/7’s low was $1130.40, a new 12-month low!). Now 30 of last 32 sessions with prints below $1200. Last close above $1300 was on 8/15. 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! RESISTNANCE again at $1200 (psych) and the 40 day ($1197!), the 50 day $1204, then the 200 day $1268 – all have bottomed! The 12-month high is $1392.60 on 3/17, highest high since 9/4/13. 11/7’s low was $1130.40! Overnight it is slightly higher at $1198.30 +$4.00 – in an inside session. Silver cracking too – now below $16 at $15.83 +.07, following its $17.27 high last week! This after a $14.12 recent low, not seen in more than five years!

Crude still cannot find a bottom…will it be at $50??? It plunged again to $53.60, lowest since 5/6/09!, then closed at $55.93 UP .02? – that is it’s 9th straight ‘lower low’ and close! Consider: 10/25’s high was $84.83. There have now been 51!!! handles since peaking at $107.73 on June 13th, highest since 9/19/13. The record high of $147.27 was on 9/30/08, the low since on 5/15/09 is $56.07: $89.85 is the average! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. RES at the 40 day ($73.15!), then the 50 day ($75.43!), and lastly the 200 day (93.54!), all STILL increasing their rate of decline! We are now headed for $50!!! The recent range is now $53.60-$112.24 since 3/1/12. Overnight, it is in an insides sessioin and is now $55.20 -.73. Note that following the financial crisis it traded down to $32.40 on 12/31/08 from a high of $147.27 just three months earlier (-78%!!!).

 

Overnight Global Markets:

European equities weak again; Asia mixed: UK -0.8% vs – vs -0.3% vs -1.5%! vs -0.8% vs +0.1% vs -1.5%!!! vs -0.9%; France -0.7% vs -1%! vs +0.1% vs -1.5%! vs -0.4% vs +0.1% vs -1.8%!!! vs -0.9% vs +1.3% vs -0.9%; Germany -0.9% vs -0.6% vs +0.1% vs -1.4%! vs +0.1% vs +0.6% vs -1.6%!!! Japan +0.4% vs -2%!!! vs -1.6%!!! vs +0.7% vs -0.9% vs -2.3%!!!; Hang Seng -0.4% vs -1.6%!!! vs -1%! vs -0.3% vs -0.9% vs +0.1% vs -2.3%!!! Korea -0.2% vs -0.9% vs -0.1% vs +0.3% vs -1.5%!!! vs -1.3%!; India -0.3% vs -2%!!! vs -0.1% vs -0.9% vs -0.8% vs +0.1% vs -1.2%! vs -1.2%! U.S. equity futures gapped up but little bounce from there: DOW +48 (53 +24 gap); SPX +6.30 (15 +1); NDQ +10.50 (33 no gap?). Should be fun!

Some random thoughts:

…no more stinkin’ dynasties like the Clinton’s Bushes, or even Kennedy’s. It is time for us to get off ‘business as usual’. Actually, would have preferred Jeb over Dubya – the first time…then perhaps we wouldn’t have had Cheney (who made an ass of himself again on MTP interview with Chuck Todd). We NEED NEW BLOOD!!! Leaning strongly towards Senator Elizabeth Warren! At least SHE understands Wall Street. Perhaps she would bring in Brooksley Born as Treasury Secretary. Take away Goldman’s ‘bank’ status and start prosecuting them and Citi and JPM!

A little assignment…write your congressmen and senators if they voted for the budget bill. Chastise them for selling out to Citibank, and JPMorgan! That’s it for today.

All the best!

TB

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