12/1/14…data only: commentary later

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “This guy was so brave, he went down to the Russian embassy and sandg ‘Look for the Union Label’ in Polish.” – Red Buttons

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “You always pass failure on the way to success.” – Mickey Rooney…strange quote from him! TB thought it was “you pass the same people you met on the way up on the way down”?

Bloomberg Top Stories:
*S&P 500 Index Futures Fall With European Stocks on Economy as Oil Rebounds – ?
*OPEC inaction Spurs Survival of Fittest With Shale as Oil Slumps Below $65 – !!!
*Black Friday Fizzles with Consumers as Post-Thanksgiving Sales Tumble 11% – serves the greedy bastards right…wake up, people! Sales have been going on for a MONTH!
*Draghi’s ECB Confronts Cheap Oil Spilling Onto Quantatative Easing Debate – zzzzz
*Hackers With Wall Street Expertise Found to Be Stealing M&A Data for a Year!
*Bond Secrets Decoded 9,539 Miles From Wall Street in Singapore Parking Lot – !!!
*Swiss Franc Defenders Who Vanquished Gold Bugs Face ECB Threat – hmmm
*Greenberg’s AIG Lawsuit in Hands of Judge Seen as Unfazed by Bailout Stars – ?
*Global Bond Yields Decline to 18-Month Low on Inflation, Economy Outlook
*Vodafone Joins Asset Hunt as BT Courting O2, EE Spurs Dealmakers to Act
*Get a Truck After Buying Big TV as U.S. Auto Dealers Embrace Black Friday
*Reagan’s Statesman Gone Solar Offers Hint of a Thaw in U.S. Climate Debate
*Roberts Bid to Shield U.S. Top Court From Politics Imperiled by Obamacare – shield?
*Russia Says NATO Is Destabilizing Northern Europe as Aid Convoy Draws Ire – Ugh!
*Uber Struggles to Impress German Riders Spoiled by Mercedes E-Class Taxis – hmmm
*No Time to Read Credit Files as Banks, Investors Vie for LendingClub Loans–caution!
*Oil at $40 Seen Possible as Market Redraws Politics From Caracas to Tehran – !!!

This week’s economic calendar is packed with important indicators. The highlight of the week will be the November ISM Manufacturing Survey (Monday), November ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey (Wednesday) and November Employment Situation report (Friday). We will also get October Construction Spending and November Motor Vehicle Sales (Tuesday), November ADP Employment and Q3 Productivity & Costs Final (Wednesday), October International Trade, October Factory Orders and October Consumer Credit (Friday). Courtesy of Economic Data Service
Friday’s Market Summary
Friday brought more pain to commodities, with Gold plunging $34 to its lowest since 11/14, destroying its recent ‘rally’ attempt the resulted in just one close above $1200; worse was Crude which ‘bottomed out’ (for now) at $65.69 – another ‘new’ low since 2010! It closed at $66.15 -$7.54 but could have lost $8 if it closed earlier! Imagine, it has now had 41 ‘handles’ since June…but EIGHT in one day?!? Bonds had a great day!
Friday also left stocks trying futilely to rally…intraday yes, but what are the recent record highs worth? Consider: we get a new high and then cannot get traction: no follow-thru which in this reporter’s mind is a sign of a market that has lost momentum, regardless of records! Only two indices were up, the two Nasdaq’s: +0.1% and 0.5% respectively. Oh, forgot to mention (snicker), Dow Utilities which took honors with a full 1% gain. Dow 30 and Dow Transports were both FLAT?!? S&P 500 -0.3%, while the ‘goat’ award goes to the Russell 2000 which suffered a 1.5% hit! A/D’s and Breadth were negative BUT new 52 week highs went from 321 to 515!!! (remember it was monthend!) while new lows more than tripled to 276 from 84 – not a pretty picture! At least volume was low detracting from the validity of the weakness…or did it? The S&P VIX rose 1.26 to 13.33 and once again solidly entered bear territory…a lot is hanging on Friday’s payrolls, no?
Total NYSE Volume plunged to 2.5B shares from 2.73B vs 3.36B vs 3.1B vs 3.9B, highest since 11/4. Average volume since 9/30 is about 3.6B shares and slipping, or about 600M more than the 12-month average. Shares traded on the NYSE floor (aka REAL) also dropped to a below average 649M shares (lowest since 11/11 and unusual for a monthend) vs 700M vs 846M – the ONLY 800+ session of the month – vs 707M vs 1.04B, highest since 10/31. For comparison purposes, for the prior 12 months it is a historically weak 716M shares…but since 10/1: 815B shares – including that HUGE 1.22B share day – highest since 9/19, followed by two more 1B plus days leading to options expiry!. The lowest was 11/1’s 619M share session. April 30 – September 30 we had just SEVEN 800M shares…since 10/1: 17, and FIVE 900M+ days.
A/D’s were negative: NYSE: -1.6x vs +1.6x vs +1.2x vs +1.6x vs 2x vs +1.9x; Nasdaq -2x vs +1.6x vs 1:1? vs +2.4x vs +1.1x vs -2.6x. Breadth was worse for NYSE but Nasdaq was neutral? NYSE -2.4x! vs +1.3x vs -1.1x vs +1.1x vs +3.7x vs +2.1x; Nasdaq -1.1x? vs +2.2x vs +1.1x vs +3.1x!!! vs +1.3x vs +2.8x vs -2.2x. New 52 Week Highs soared to 515??? vs 321 vs 296 vs 280 vs 359 – their range for the year is 39-612!!! New Lows tripled to 276 vs 84 vs 80 vs 68 vs 66. The 2014 range is 24-1043!!! S&P VIX ranged from 12.36-13.49, not only ending the closes below ‘13’ at four but the high of 13.49 blasted through that ‘double top’ at 13.02! All this just FIVE days after hitting a very bearish 15.74, highest since 11/4! It closed at 13.33 +1.26??? – also unusual for monthend!?! This is its 23rd sub-15 close since peaking on 10/15. Now safely away from those bearish extremes that had a high of 31.06 (highest since 11/28/11!!!). The average of the past 12 months is 14.00, with a low of 10.28!…high close of 26.25 on 10/15/14! Friday is the payrolls report and a lot of data in between (see above)!

U.S. bond market closed STRONG! The recent 12 month low yields (10’s 2.09%; 30’s 2.87%; and long TIP 0.83%), 10’s closed at 2.16%! +3/4; 30’s 2.89% +1-5/16!, and the long TIP 0.90% +1-3/16! Overnight slightly weaker: 10’s 2.15% –; 30’s 2.90% -5/32; and long TIP 0.92% -5/16.
Libor update: 0.234% 3 mos.; 0.326% 6 mos. – near their new record lows! The Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% and is currently 0.11-0.13%. T-Bills: 0.2% one-month, 0.01%! 3 mos, 0.11% one year.

Foreign bond yields lower, led by Greece which had been hammered (Benchmark is 10yr): Germany 0.71% –; UK 1.89%! -4; France 0.97% –; Italy 2.01%! -2; Spain 1.85% -4; Portugal 2.81% -2; Greece 7.85%! -28!!! 10/16’s close was 8.54%! – cycle low: 5.42%; Crisis high: 12.57%. Japan: 0.41% –.

Gold was punished following the thrashing Thursday in European markets hitting a low of $1163.80 – wiping out the feeble rally attempt that began on 11/14 with a positive ‘key reversal’ – and closed at $1175.20 -$21.40!!! The session high on 11/21 was $1208.20 – highest since 10/30 and first time above the 40/50 day since 10/21! 11/7’s low was $1130.40, a new 12-month low!). The last 22 sessions have had prints below $1200 – first time since 12/31/13 Last close above $1300 was on 8/15. 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! Res is at $1200 (psych), then the 40 day at $1201, the 50 day $1204, then the 200 day at $1275. The 12-month high is $1392.60 on 3/17, highest high since 9/4/13. $1130.40. 11/7’s low was $1130.40! Overnight slightly higher after plunging to $1141.70!!! but is currently $1178.70 +$3.20 – a $43 range!!! The ‘string’ of highs above $1200 ended at just FIVE since 10/31). Silver also plunged to $14.15 before bouncing – get this: session high was $16.37?!?, currently $15.82 +.26. Wednesday’s high close was $16.61! 11/5’s low was $15.12, more than a five year low.

Crude collapsed, bottoming at $65.69 – lowest since 5/20/10! It barely came back from there closing at $66.15 -$7.54!!! lowest since June 2010! Friday’s session high was $77.83. 7 days ago it set a new recent low of $74.07, lowest since 9/17/10!!! 10/25’s high was $84.83. There have been 41!!! handles since peaking at $107.73 on June 13th, highest since 9/19/13. The record high of $147.27 was on 9/30/08, the low since on 12/30/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. RES at the 40 day ($79.96!), then the 50 day ($82.41!), and lastly the 200 day (96.13!), all dropping like a stone! A failure here could take us to ? The recent range is now $65.69-$112.24 since 3/1/12. On ‘Thanksgiving’ day, OPEC voted to maintain production levels despite the plunge in price…sending a message to the ‘frackers’ in the U.S. F’get the Keystone Pipeline now…even oil companies won’t support it now! This is survival…every company for itself…want to buy a drilling rig?…cheap??? Overnight a new low of $63.72 (its 43rd handle!), and lowest since 7/29/09 – a new FIVE year low! There have now been 43 handles since peaking on June 13th (this is no time to be superstitious! A failure here would put support at $58.32!!! It is currently $66.26 +.11 – down 27% just since 9/30! Note that following the financial crisis it traded down to $32.40 on 12/31/08 from a high of $147.27 just three months earlier (-78%!!!).

Global equities lower, ex-Japan for a 2nd session! Hong Kong trashed!!! UK -0.9% vs -0.2% vs +0.2% vs +0.3% vs – vs +1%; France –0.3% vs -0.3% vs -0.1% vs +1.4% vs +0.7% vs +2.1% vs -1.1%; Germany –0.2% vs -0.1% vs +0.6% vs +1.4% vs +0.7% vs +2%; Japan UP 0.8% vs +1.2% vs -0.1% vs +0.3% vs closed; Hang Seng -2.6%!!! vs -0.1% vs +1.2% vs -0.2% vs +2%; Korea -0.8% vs -0.1% vs – vs +0.1% vs +0.7%; India -0.5% vs +0.9% vs +0.2% vs -0.6% vs +0.6% vs +1%. U.S. equity futures also weak after gapping down at the open: DOW -44 (range 80 plus 62 gap!); SPX -7 (11 +3); NDQ -10.75 (19 +10!). U.S. opening accordingly!

Some random thoughts:

…back later…wanted to get the info out first!

Have a great week…may you live in interesting times…wait…we already do!

TB

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