11/26/14…justice is served. Happy Thanksgiving!

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “Help beautify our city dumps – throw something pretty away today.”

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “The pen is the tongue of the mind.” – Miguel de Cervantes

Bloomberg Top Stories:
*First-Time Jobless Claims in U.S. Increase to an Almost Three-Month High – oops!
*Orders for U.S. Business Equipment Unexpectedly Declined 1.3% in October – 2x oops!
*Consumers in U.S. Stay Within their Means as Spending Matches Income Gains – memo to businesses (especially WalMart): pay them more and they will SPEND more! Sheesh!
*U.S. Index Futures ‘Fluctuate’ on Economic Data as Oil Falls Near 2010 Level – ditto
*Uber Said Poised to Raise Funds Valuing Company at as Much as $40 Billion –AVOID!
*Google Pushed to Extend Right-to-be-Forgotten Requests Beyond Its EU Sites – YES!
*U.S. Protests Spread as Ferguson Avoids Second Day of Widespread Rioting
*ECB’s Bond-Buying Plan Risks Being Undermined by Banks Refusing to Sell –‘nuf said!
*Oil Volatility Is Here to Stay Regardless of OPEC Meeting Outcome – do tell!
*Flight 370 Will Be Found, Lead Investigator Says After 263-Day Search – hopefully 
*Conn’s Offers Bargain for Buyers Willing to Take on Credit Unit – hmmm
*Hong Kong Police Clash With Protestors, Detain Student Leader Joshua Wong
*It’s The Most Wonderful Time of the Year for Workers as U.S. Retailers Hiring-pay ‘em!
*Kick a slothful Poor Person This Thanksgiving for Being Bad – you rock, GOP!
Tuesday’s Market Summary
Remember the song ‘Henry the Eighth’ by Herman’s Hermits? Here’s a line: ‘second verse, same as the first’ got it? Yes another nothing day only even more nothinger! All indices expcept Dow Transports (-0.4%) were +/- 0.1%! This on higher volume and new 12-month highs, while A/D’s and Breadth were non existent” +1.2x to -1.1x. Ah,but the magical S&P VIX declined again with the high creating a ‘double top’ at 13.02 – a barometer if you will…or won’t for the next ‘bear’ move. It closed at 12.25 -.37, just off the session low. Nothing else to report. Wait for a sign…higher VIX, or…

Total NYSE Volume came back from a weak Monday to a still below average 3.36B shares vs 3.1B vs 3.9B, highest since 11/4, vs 3.1B vs 3.4B. Average volume since 9/30 is about 3.6B shares and slipping, or about 600M more than the 12-month average. Shares traded on the NYSE floor (aka REAL) also rose and to a well above average 846M shares – the first 800+ session this month, vs 707M vs 1.04B shares highest since 10/31 vs 662M, vs 738M. For comparison purposes, for the prior 12 months it is a historically weak 715M shares…but since 10/1: 822B shares – including that HUGE 1.22B share day – highest since 9/19, followed by two more 1B plus days leading to options expiry!. The lowest was 10/6’s 696M share session. April 30 – September 30 we had just SEVEN 800M shares…since 10/1: now 17, and FIVE 900M+ days.

A/D’s were minimal and mixed: NYSE: +1.2x vs +1.6x vs 2x vs +1.9x vs -1.6x; Nasdaq 1:1? vs +2.4x vs +1.1x vs -2.6x vs +1.5x. Breadth was similar: NYSE -1.1x vs +1.1x vs +3.7x vs +2.1x vs -1.6x; Nasdaq +1.1x vs +3.1x!!! vs +1.3x vs +2.8x vs -2.2x. New 52 Week Highs were slightly higher at 296 vs 280 vs 359 vs 173 vs 135 – their range for the year is 39-612!!! New Lows also rose to 80 vs 68 vs 66 vs 104 vs 141 vs 117. The 2014 range is 24-1043!!! S&P VIX ranged from 12.25-13.02 (creating a double top!) This, three days after hitting a very bearish 15.74, highest since 11/4! It closed just off the session low 12.23 (4th sub-13) day) at 12.25 -.37. This is its 21st sub-15 close since peaking on 10/15. Now safely away from those bearish extremes that had a high of 31.06 (highest since 11/28/11!!!). The average of the past 12 months is 14.00, with a low of 10.28!…high close of 26.25 on 10/15/14! A month till next options expiration…won’t THAT be fun?

U.S. bond market closed strong. The recent 12 month low yields (10’s 2.09%; 30’s 2.87%; and long TIP 0.83%), 10’s closed at 2.26% +7/16; 30’s 2.96% +3/16, and the long TIP 0.95% +15/16. Overnight trying to rise again: 10’s 2.24% +1/8; 30’s 2.95% +1/4; and long TIP 0.94% +1/4.
Libor update: 0.234% 3 mos.; 0.327% 6 mos., both steady and just above new record lows! The Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% and is steady at 0.09-0.10%. T-Bills: 0.6% one-month, 0.02%! 3 mos, 0.12% one year. Foreign bond yields mixed, Greece higher (Benchmark is 10yr): Germany 0.74% -1; UK 1.99%! -1; France 1.06% -1; Italy 2.14% –; Spain 1.92% –; Portugal 2.90% -1; Greece 7.88% +11. 10/16’s close was 8.54%! – cycle low: 5.42%; Crisis high: 12.57%. Japan: 0.43% -2.

Gold closed slightly higher at $1197.80 -$1.20, two days after a session high of $1208.20 – highest since 10/30 and first time above the 40/50 day since 10/21!…still hanging on to 11/14’s ‘positive key reversal’. 11/7’s low was $1130.40, a new 12-month low!). The last 20 sessions have had prints below $1200 – first time since 12/31/13 Last close above $1300 was on 8/15. 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! Res/SUP is at $1200 (psychological), then the 40 day at $1203, the 50 day $1206, then the 200 day at $1276. The 12-month high is $1392.60 on 3/17, highest high since 9/4/13. $1130.40. 11/7’s low was $1130.40! Overnight, high lower again at $1201.60 at the open (only the 5th time over $1200 since 10/31), and currently $1197.60 -.20. Silver steady at $16.61 overnight, $16.76 is highest since 10/30, and back from 11/5’s low of $15.12, more than a five year low.

Crude closed weak at $74.09 -$1.69 – worse it was a new low close. Friday’s session high was $77.83. 7 days ago it set a new recent low of $74.07, lowest since 9/17/10!!! 10/25’s high was $84.83. There have been 33!!! handles since peaking at $107.73 on June 13th, highest since 9/19/13. The record high of $147.27 was on 9/30/08, the low since on 12/30/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. RES at the 40 day ($81.01!), then the 50 day ($83.36!), and lastly the 200 day (96.14!), all dropping like a stone! A failure here could take us to $70! The recent range is now $74.07-$112.24 since 3/1/12. Overnight a new low of $73.64 making support $70!!! Currently $74.07 -.01.

Global equities mostly higher: UK +0.2% vs +0.3% vs – vs +1% vs -0.6%; France -0.1% vs +1.4% vs +0.7% vs +2.1% vs -1.1%; Germany +0.6% vs +1.4% vs +0.7% vs +2% vs -0.6%; Japan -0.1% vs +0.3% vs closed vs +0.3% vs -0.1%; Hang Seng +1.2%! vs -0.2% vs +2% vs +0.4% vs -0.1%; Korea – vs +0.1% vs +0.7% vs +0.4% vs -0.5%; India +0.2% vs -0.6% vs +0.6% vs +1% vs +0.1% vs -0.5% vs -0.1%. U.S. equity futures also little changed in quiet trading: DOW -1 (range 29); SPX +0.50 (4!); NDQ +3.75 (8?!?).

Some random thoughts:

…more ‘in’justice in Ferguson? How could anyone in their right mind decide to release the verdict at NIGHT…instead of waiting and releasing it at 9am the next day? Stupido! More stupidity in the rioters who looted and burned out a lot of black-owned businesses: any excuse to steal right…and that isn’t a racial statement, just that demonstrations have gone a long way since the ‘60’s from protests to improving one’s own status.
Bond geeks get an early close today…Have a great Thanksgiving with your family and friends!
TB

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