10/29/14…when will World Series be over? tonight!

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “My uncle was thrown out of a mime show for having a seizure. They thought he was heckling.” – Jeff Shaw

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “The reward for conformity was that everyone liked you but yourself.” – Rita Mae Brown

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Stocks Rise as Treasuries Hold gain on Fed Interest Rate Bets (?); Oil Climbs ??? Hello???

*Some Traders Get SEC Filings Seconds Ahead of Website Release, Study Finds – just swell!

*Fiat Chrysler Says It Will Complete Spinoff of Ferrari Auto Unit Next Year – interesting!

*Pimco Replaced at $6 Billion Prudential Fund by BlackRock, Loomis Sayles – no Janus???

*Facebook’s $22 Billion WhatsApp Deal Buys Zuckerberg $10 Million in Sales

*Calls for $100-a-Barrel Oil Show Many Betting Selloff Will Prove Fleeting – wanna bet?

*American Realty Ousts Finance Chief on Accounting Errors Left Uncorrected

*Bond Market Overhaul Requires Patience for Tradeweb Chief Seeking Change

*Trading Turmoil skirted in Biggest Volatility Drop Since April – Currencies that is, but stocks too

*Breathing Cleaner Air Has Cost for Americans as Utility Bills Set to Surge

*German Potholes Threaten Prospects for Economic Growth in Land of Autobahn

*Dubai Vows This Time Is Different as Property Boom Stirs Bubble Memories

*NASA Vows to Continue Commercial Rocket Program After Orbital Explosion

*Iraqi Kurds Arrive in Turkey en route to Battle Islamic State in Kobani

*Nurse Kaci Hickox Says She Won’t Follow Maine’s Ebola Quarantine at Home – a good thing?

*Ukraine Struggling to boos EU Natural Gas Imports as Talks Seen Falling

*Chronic Fatigue All in Your Head as Researchers Find Brain Differences


Tuesday’s Market Summary:

Wow! A rally for a lot of reasons but it was a day where only good news was heeded. Sure there was plenty but to place that much emphasis on Consumer Confidence (could be called a ‘lagging’ indicator), when Ebola panic is rising and elections are just a week away and how will people vote? Based on what information? Disinformation! Courtesy of SCOTUS! Volume was a ‘normal’ 3.61B shares…normal for the 12-months but looks good compared to the last six months – until the beginning of October that is. Real trades however slipped to 715M from 760M or about at the 12-month average but compare to October average to date: 875M. A/D’s and Breadth were strong…a rarity these days and the VIX closed at 14.39 9/24 but needs to get to at least 13 to be meaningful. What say you?

The struggling Russell 2000 managed to jump 2.6% with Nasdaq Composite next at +1.8% (note the 100 was up just 1.2%!). Dow Transports were +1.5%. The rest were between +1.1-1.8%. Dow Utilities up 0.8% but still in first place ytd (+19.7%), followed closely by Transports +18.4% (these are price changes only!).

Total NYSE Volume slightly higher again but not by much: 3.61B vs 3.47B vs 3.06B vs 3.76B vs 3.74B: average volume for October is 3.6B, or about 600M more than the recent average. Shares traded on the NYSE floor – affectionately referred to by TB as REAL volume: for October it is 875M shares!!! Volume was up slightly to 785M shares vs 760M vs 718M vs 919M vs 802M vs 815M. For comparison purposes, for the prior 12 months it is a historically weak 710M shares…but thus far in October, 870M shares – from 895M Thursday – including that HUGE 1.22B share day – highest since 9/19. The lowest was 10/6’s 696M share session. April 30 – September 30 we had just SEVEN 800M shares…for October so far? 14, with FIVE 900M+ days.

A/D’s were solid: NYSE: +4.6x!!! vs -1.3x vs +1.6x vs +3.3x! vs -2.2x; Nasdaq +3.8x! vs -1.1x vs +1.3x vs +2.7x vs -2.8x; Breadth was even stronger: NYSE +4.8x!!! vs -2.1x vs +1.8x vs +3.4x vs -3.7x; Nasdaq +5x!!! vs +1.1x vs +1.9x vs +5.7x vs -2.9x; New 52 Week Highs doubled to 326 vs 161 vs 142 vs 171 vs 161 – their range for the year is 39-580!!! New Lows dropped sharply to 80 vs 136! vs 82 vs 89 vs 68. The 2014 range is 24-1043!!! S&P VIX slightly declined sharply to 14.39 -1.65, well below those bearish extremes that had a high of 31.06 (highest since 11/28/11!!!). The range not out of danger yet at 14.39-15.78. Remains bearish and well above 9/18’s 12.03 The average of the past 12 months is 13.94, with a low of 10.32!…high close 26.35 on 10/14! Still needs a ‘13’ print!

U.S. bond market closed weaker with the long bond remaining over 3%, and off their recent 12 month low yields (10’s 2.09%; 30’s 2.87%; and long TIP 0.83%), 10’s closed at 2.29% -1/4; 30’s 3.07% -9/16; and the long TIP 0.96% +1/16. Slightly weaker overnight: 10’s 2.30% -1/16; 30’s 3.08% -3/16; and long TIP 0.98% +1/16. Had been up early in the session.  

Libor update: 0.233% 3 mos.; 0.323% 6 mos., both steady and just above new record lows! The Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% and is steady at 0.08-0.10%. T-Bills range from 0.02%, one-month, to just 0.10% one year!!! Foreign bond yields mixed and little changed overnight, Greece higher; (Benchmark is 10yr): Germany 0.87% –; UK 2.23% –; France 1.26% -2; Italy 2.51% -2; Spain 2.15% +2; Portugal 3.33% +1; Greece 7.35% +10! 10/16’s close was 8.54%! – cycle low: 5.42%; Crisis high: 12.57%. Japan: 0.46% +1.

Gold closed slightly higher at $1229.20 +.10, in another nothing session, and remains below the 40/50 day m’a’s, following a new recent high of $1255.60, highest since 9/10/14. There have been just two prints below $1200 since 12/31/13 – 10/3 and 10/6 and soundly rejected! Last close above $1300 was on 8/15. 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! Res is the 40 day at $1230, the 50 day $1241, and the 200 day at $1284. Recent high was $1392.60 on 3/17, highest high since 9/4/13. Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Overnight it is weaker at $1227.40 -$2.00. Silver still holding in low $17’s, after falling to $16.64 on 10/3 – lowest since 2/9/2010 and very close to $15.73, a multi-decade low!!!

Crude closed higher at $81.42 +.42, but meaningless after Monday’s huge header to $79.44 intraday– lowest since 6/29/12. 10/25’s high $84.83, low $79.78, had defined October’s range. There have been 28!!! handles since peaking at $107.73 on June 13th at $107.73 highest since 9/19/13 (a huge down session which put it in freefall. The record high of $147.27 was on 9/30/08, the low since on 12/30/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. RES at the 40 day ($88.92), then the 50 day ($89.99), and lastly the 200 day (98.39). The range is now $79.78-$112.24 since 3/1/12. Overnight higher at $82.22 +.80.

Global equities higher, led by Asia: UK +0.6% vs +0.6% vs -0.6% vs0.2% vs -0.9%; France +0.1% vs +0.6% vs -1.4% vs +0.2% vs -1.3%; Germany +0.06% vs -1.6% vs +1.4% vs +0.4% vs -1.4%; Japan +1.5%! vs-0.3% vs +0.6% vs +1% vs -0.4%; Hang Seng +1.3% vs +1.6% vs -0.7% vs -0.1% vs -0.3%; Korea +1.8%! vs -0.3% vs +0.3% vs -0.3% vs -0.3%; India +0.9% vs +0.5% vs -0.4% vs +0.2% vs +0.8%. U.S. equity futures little changed after being down earlier: Dow +19 (range 49); SPX -0.50 (6); NDQ -4.50 (9). Waiting for more information…


Some random thoughts:

Running late today so skipping commentary…definitely a World Series to remember! Go Giants!

Have a great day!



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