9/12/14…is it ok to carry a ‘pistorius’?

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “There are three ages of man: youth, middle age, and “Gee, you look good.” – Red Skelton

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “The truth is always the strongest argument.” – Sophocles…yes, but Aesop says, “the fight is not always to the strong, nor the race to the swift…”, that’s how the turtle beat the hare!

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Alibaba Said to Plan Closing Books Early After IPO Covered at All Prices – the forty thieves?

*Recession Threat Ignored in Europe With Profit Revisions Turning Positive – not to TB!

*Government Bonds Decline on U.S. Rate Outlook (a good reason), While Ruble Slips to Record

*Pound Seen Tumbling as Much as 10% on a Scottish Vote for Independence – uisge beatha

*Draghi Says Investment Revival Needs Both Reform Implementation, Stimulus – do tell!

*Barclays Appoints McFarlane Chairman After Leading Turnaround at Aviva – a Scot?

*Microsoft’s Nadella Chases Minecraft in Push to Get Software on any Device – fools!

*Economic Recovery Seen Abiding at Goldman Sachs Even as Rates Start Rising – abiding???

*Darden Investor Tells Olive Garden to Ease Up on Bread, Push More alcohol – uh huh, got it

*Brazil Traders Get Whipsawed as Interest-Rate Volatility Soars Before Vote

*Europe’s Cheapest Cars Reviving Romanian Economy 25 Years After Communism – Yugo?

*Ray Rice Valentine’s Day Punch Ignites Uproar Amid bungled Probe by FBI – it should!

*Scotland Independence Push Loses Ground as’ No’ Side Leads in Latest Poll – it ain’t over till…

*Pistorius Freed on Bail After Manslaughter Verdict in Death of Girlfriend – see below!

*War-Gaming for Scotland’s Exit as U.K. Contingency Plans May Turn Reality – or maybe not

*Not Pro-Bono: Apple’s Album Giveaway Has ITunes Customers Asking ‘U2 Who?’ – LMAO!

*Ian Paisley, Church Leader Who Led Northern Ireland Government, Dies at 88 – not Brad!  

 

Thursday’s Market Summary:

Market started out in the hole but came out of – sort of! At the end of the day Dow Utilities wond the session (despite bonds not holding their overnight gains), rising a respectable 0.9% – more than double the prior day’s loss! Next came Dow Transports +0.4%, while the rest were a mixed bag with Dow 30 and NDQ 100 both -0.1%, and the rest up 0.1-0.2%. Volume was higher but still couldn’t even touch 3B shares. Nothing else to comment on except the most active, as usual, BofA +1.3% – while NYSE Financials were flat (?), but: NYSE Brokers +0.9%; KBW and Nasdaq Banks both +0.5%. A/D’s and Breadth were slightly positive but the last two days didn’t equal the prior negative. New 52 week highs slightly higher at a still weak 113, while new lows fell back to 104 from 128 (high!). VIX slightly lower again but the range was still broad and low was just 12.66 while the session high dropped from 14.66 to a still bear-leaning 13.67. Options expiry next week.

Total NYSE Volume still doing nothing at 2.93B shares vs 2.86B vs 2.87B vs 2.78B vs 2.81B vs 3.06B vs 2.77B. Real NYSE Volume also steady at 605M shares vs 608M vs 603M vs 602M vs 610M vs 607M vs 616M – now THAT’S stable…and boring! The average for the week ended 8/29 was 522M shares (highly unusual for a monthend), but it was Labor Day weekend – a new 2014 low – average volume at the closing bell was also a new low for the year of 387M shares! Note that the average for the final week of 2013 was 424M! There have been just four sessions above 800M since 4/28! The 12-month average is a historically weak 696M shares. Since 4/30 the average volume has been just 649M shares, and slipping ranging from 517M to 927B….12 month high is 2.06B shares on 9/20/13!

A/D’s were slightly positive again, but: NYSE: +1.3x vs +1.1x vs -3.3x vs -1.6x vs +1.6x; Nasdaq +1.4x vs +1.6x vs -3.2x vs +1.3x vs +1.2x. Breadth was similar:: NYSE +1.9x vs +1.2x vs -3.4x vs -1.9x vs +1.6x; Nasdaq +1.7x vs +2x vs -3.9x vs +1.5x vs +1.7. New 52 Week Highs stable at a weak 113 vs 107 vs 121 vs 225 vs 164 – recent range is 46-580!!! New Lows fell back to 104 vs 128 vs 109 vs 71 vs 87 – recent range is 24-260! S&P VIX a tad lower at 12.80 -.08, its 9th straight close above ‘12’. Range slipped from Wednesday’s high of 14.66 to 12.66-13.67.

U.S. bond market little changed after rallying in the overnight session: 10 yr 2.55% -1/16; 30 yr 3.28% -1/16, the long TIP 1.01% (low was 0.87%!) +1/4. Weaker overnight: 2.56% -1/8; 30’s 3.30% -5/16; and long TIP 1.03% -3/8.

Libor update: 0.235% 3 mos.; 0.331% 6 mos., both remain near their record lows, set recently: 0.222% and 0.320% respectively! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% since 5/22/13 and remains 0.08%-0.10%, where it has been for weeks! T-Bills range from ZERO, on-month, to 0.09% one year!!! Foreign bond yields slightly higher – like U.S. rally faded into close yesterday (benchmark is the 10yrs): Germany 1.06% +2; UK 2.52% +2; France 1.41% +2; Italy 2.45% -1; Spain 2.34% +2; Portugal 3.19% -3; Greece 5.55% +3 – waffling near the recovery low: 5.42%; Crisis high: 12.57%. Japan: 0.57% +1. Bonds are ‘risky business’ here!

Gold closed weak again at $1239.00 -$6.30 – but this belies a thumping to $1234.50 intraday: lowest since 1/23/14! – this marks it’s 18th straight sub-$1300 close. It is way below the 40/50 and 200 day m/a’s. 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! 6/9’s $1240.20 was lowest since 1/31/14!!! RES is the 200 day ($1285), now climbing, then the 40/50 day at $1289-1295 – falling! Recent high was $1392.60 on 3/17, highest high since 9/4/13. Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Overnight it put in another new low of $1232.80 before bouncing (?) back to $1238.80 -.20.

Crude took a header yet again, falling to $90.43 – lowest since 6/28/13 – before closing higher at a still weak $92.83 +$1.16. There have been SEVENTEEN handles since peaking at $107.73 on June 20th. 6/20’s run to $107.73 was highest since 9/19/13 (a huge down session which put it in freefall. The record high of $147.27 was on 9/30/08, the low since on 12/30/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. RES at the 40 day ($97.19), then the 50/200 day ($98.23/99.75) – all falling fast now! The range is $85.61-$112.24 since 3/1/12. Overnight it has traded in a narrow range but is now $93.09.26 in a very narrow range

Global equity markets mixed: UK +0.3% vs -0.7% vs – vs – vs -0.9%; France – vs -0.8% vs -0.1% vs -0.2% vs -0.5%; Germany –0.2% vs -0.6% vs –0.3% vs -0.3% vs -0.2%; Japan +0.3% vs +0.8% vs -0.3% vs +0.3% vs +0.2%; Hang Seng -0.3% vs -0.2% vs -1.9% vs closed vs -0.2%; Korea +0.4% vs -0.7% vs 0.3% vs closed for 2 days; India +0.2% vs –0.2% vs -0.8% vs -0.2% vs +1.1%!. U.S. equity futures little changed: Dow — (range 21); SPX -0.10 (2.5!); NDQ -0.75? (2!).

 

Some random thoughts:

…can you conjugate the word Pistol? Pistol, Pistoff, Pistorius. Well, they finally got him…sort of…manslaughter…here it would have likely been the higher 2nd degree since all that was lacking was premeditation (or was it?)…manslaughter is more like ‘it just happened’. So one could say, if one wanted to…he got away with murder. Not sure what sentence will be but differences in the two systems are highlighted: there one entrusts their fate to a juror – in this case a woman, which could have worked for or against him; here a jury of twelve ‘upstanding’ individuals…some bored seniors looking for excitement, and others still ‘pistoff’ that they had to serve. Would the women have sympathized with him due to his clean-cut good looks, or loathed him? What about the men? Dunno…

In case you didn’t notice, TB is tired of the global mess…should have seen that yesterday. Soooo…color him ‘pistoff’.

Now get out of here and enjoy your weekend…afterall, we have options expiry next Friday! 47 degrees in Minneapolis! Brrrr.

TB

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