9/5/14…where are the jobs??? Deadend and puny pay!

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “I dreamed that God sneezed, and I didn’t know what to say to him.” – Henny Youngman

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “It’s wonderful what we can do if we’re always doing.”
– George “Father of Our Country” Washington

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls rose in August by a worse than estimated (230k median) 142k – smallest gain of the year!!! Private Payrolls rose by 134k; Public up 8k. July was revised up by3k BUT June was lowered by 31k for a net loss of 28k jobs – not good!

The Unemployment Rate slipped to 6.1% -0.1%, but so did the Participation Rate to 62.8% -0.1% and still at a three decade low! Household Employment rose by a weak 16k! The Employment to Population Ratio was steady at 59.0% barely up from a year ago’s 58.6%. Augmented Unemployment Rate declined to 6.7% vs 7.0%, while including part-time for economic reasons slipped to 12.0% -0.6%

Market Reaction 8:45am EDT: Bonds reversed with 10’s now up 3/8 and 30 yr +7/16. Equity futures fell initially but have regained most of their losses: DOW -11; SPX -0.30; NDQ now positive 8.50?

Bloomberg Top Stories:
*Payrolls in U.S. Increased 142,000 in August in Smallest Advance This Year – not a good report
*U.S. Stock Futures Fluctuate as Jobs Data Fuel Speculation on Fed Raise
*Family Dollar Rejects Sweetened $9.1 Billion Proposal From Dollar General – !!!
*Canada Posts Surprise August Job Decline on Record Drop in Private Sector – another warning!
*Dollar Falls After jobs Report Damping Bets on Early Fed Action on Rates – but you knew that!
*Autonomy CFO Told Lynch of Imaginary Deals Before Sale to Hewlett-Packard – LMAO!
*Starbucks Will Test Smaller-Format, Express Stores in New York Next Year
*Uber German Drivers Need Right Answer to Passengers’ 250,000 Euro Question
*El Pollo Loco Gains With Ambarella as Gap Declines
*Coalition of 10 Nations Meets to Eradicate Islamic State Terrorist Group
*Hillary Clinton Reigns Among Democrats even as Policy Gaps Widen in 2008
*Obama Finds Opportunity to Push NATO for Increased Action Amid New Threats – a weak Pres!
*case Back Brain Trauma Device as Billionaires Push Into Do-Good Investing – uh huh…

Thursday’s Market Summary:

Hey! Guess what? NYSE VOLUME picked up…to 3.06B shares while those traded on the NYSE floor were stable at 607M which is still 91M below average…oh, sorry, the bad news? It was a down session…not much but down from 0.1-0.3% (Dow was flat; Transports, the exception +0.6%!; the loser? Russell 2000 -0.6%), got it? A/D’s and Breadth were negative; new 52 week highs dropped back to a ‘more normal’ 265 from 288 while new lows ‘doubled’ to 80! VIX continued its slow, ‘erratic’ assent closing at 12.64 – where will to go today? Beats TB!

Now look at the S&P 500 since ‘breaking the 2k barrier’ on 8/26 to close at 2000.02; then on 8/27 a high of 2000.54,closing at 2000.12; then failing to get above it on 8/28! Then three consecutive closes above 2k, thigh highest being 2003.37 for monthend. All three highs this week have been above 2k but the best was yesterday at 2011.17 BUT closed at 1997.65 – it’s not supposed to happen this way, folks!

Total NYSE Volume slightly higher at 3.06B shares vs 2.77B vs 2.8B vs 2.23B vs 2.3B. Real NYSE Volume slightly lower at 607M vs 616M vs 593M vs 617M from the new 12-month low of 491M. The average for last week was 522M shares – a new 2014 low – average volume at the closing bell was also a new low for the year of 387M shares! Note that the average for the final week of 2013 was 424M! There have been just four sessions above 800M since 4/28! The 12-month average is a historically weak 698M shares. Since 4/30 the average volume has been just 651M shares ranging from 517M to 927B….12 month high is 2.06B shares on 9/20/13!

A/D’s were negative: -2x! vs -1.1x vs -1.1x vs +2.4x vs -1.3x; Nasdaq -1.6x vs -1.8x vs +1.5x vs +2.4x vs -1.9x. Breadth was similar:: NYSE -1.6x vs -1.1x vs -1.2x vs +2.6x vs -1.7x; Nasdaq -1.3x vs -1.4x vs +1.7x vs +3.5x vs -1.2x. New 52 Week Highs fell back to 265 vs 374 vs 288 vs 192 vs 264 – recent range is 46-580!!! New Lows climbed again to 80 vs 56 vs 41 vs 52 vs 26! – recent range is 24-260! S&P VIX rose and for a 3rd day closed above ‘12’ at 12.64 +.28. The range was 11.70-12.99, slightly wider – recent low was last Monday’s 11.24.

U.S. bond market declined – especially the long end – even as Europe rose sharply on the cut in the Reference Rate to 0.05%: 10 yr 2.45% -7/16; 30 yr 3.21% -1-5/16!, the long TIP 0.94% -1-13/16. Overnight slightly weaker ahead of payrolls: 10’s 2.46% -1/16; 30’s 3.22% -3/16; and long TIP 0.94% -1/4.
Libor update: 0.234% 3 mos.; 0.329% 6 mos., both remain near their record lows, set recently: 0.222% and 0.320% respectively! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% since 5/22/13 and is 0.08%-0.10%, where it has been for weeks! T-Bills are at ZERO percent out to one year!!! DE-FLATION? Foreign bond yields little changed – except the PIIGS which are lower again! (note: benchmark is the 10yrs): Germany 0.97% +1; UK 2.50% +1; France 1.30% -1; Italy 2.31% -4; Spain 2.09% -6; Portugal 3.06% -7; Greece 5.48%! -8 – almost to the recovery low: 5.42%; Crisis high: 12.57%. Japan: 0.53% +1.

Gold had another down day, with another slight new low to its worst since 6/17, $1261.60, but worse on an ‘outside session and nearly a dreaded ‘key reversal’ (higher high, lower low and close below the prior day’s low), closing at $1266.50.30 -$4.80. 8/28’s high was $1296.40 – this marks it’s 13th straight sub-$1300 close – this is no time to be superstitious! It is now way below the 40/50 and 200 day m/a’s. 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! 6/9’s $1240.20 was lowest since 1/31/14!!! RES is the 200 day $1285, then the 40/50 day at $1297-1302! Lows right at first support: $1260.90 – the 6/17/14 low! Recent high was $1392.60 on 3/17, highest high since 9/4/13. Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Overnight is it broke first support to $1258.00, and is now $1264.00 -$2.50!

Crude continued its volatility closing at $94.45 -$1.51 in a 2nd straight inside with a very narrow trading band, two days after a nosedive to $92.68. 8/21’s low was $92.50, lowest since 1/15/14! There have been FOURTEEN handles since 6/30! 7/22’s high was $105.20, highest since 7/2. 7/15’s session low was $90.01 – lowest since 3/21. 6/20’s run to $107.73 was highest since 9/19/13 (a huge down session which put it in freefall. 3/2’s session low was $97.37, lowest since 2/4! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. RES at the 40 day ($98.25), then the 50/200 day ($99.53/99.78). The range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is slightly lower on another, even tighter inside session at $94.42 -.03.

Global equity markets weaker: Europe after three strong sessions: UK -0.6% vs +0.4% vs +0.8% vs +0.1% vs ‘+’; France -0.5% vs +1.5% vs +1.3% vs +0.2% vs ‘+’; Germany -0.3% vs +0.8% vs +1.4% vs +0.5% vs ‘+’; Japan -0.1% vs -0.3% vs +0.4% vs +1.2% vs ‘+’; Hang Seng -0.2% vs -0.1% vs +2.3% vs – vs ‘+’; Korea -0.3% vs +0.3% vs – vs -0.8% vs ‘+’; India -0.2% vs -0.2% vs +0.5% vs +0.6% vs ‘+’. U.S. equity futures were slightly higher, then came payrolls: Dow -60 (range 76); SPX -7.40 (10); NDQ -6.25(18).

 

Some random thoughts:

…let’s just digest payrolls today, shall we? Isn’t there enough (bad) going on in the world
Just get past payrolls and go enjoy one of the last weekends of summer…unless we have an Indian Summer!

TB

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