9/3/14…it’s good to be hit by a ‘revolving door’

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “Let me put it this way: according to my girth, I should be a ninety-foot redwood.” – Erma Bombeck

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “The wisest ment follow their own direction.” – Euripides, famous for saying ‘you rip-a dese’, you pay for them!

Bloomberg Top Stories:
*GM Total U.S. Vehicle Sales Down 1.2% in August, Estimate: -0.1%
*Ford August U.S. Sales Increase of 0.4% Beats Estimates for a 1.2% Decline
*Chrysler,Nissan Beat U.S. Sales Estimates as Industry Sees Strong August – ex GM!
*Millennials’ Promotions Upended as New U.S. Firms’ Hiring Eases – no deadend jobs??? HA!
*Shrinkflation the Unseen Price Pressure From Chocolate to Beer – smaller size, same price!
*Stocks in U.S. Climb to Records on Russia-Ukraine Cease-Fire Negotiations – fools everywhere!
*Whole Foods Sheds ‘Whole Paycheck’ Image in Manhattan, Undercutting Rivals
*Trader Who Scored $100 Million Payday Goes All In With Be Against Shale – another Paulsen?
*Putin Outlines Peace Plan for Ukraine After Talks With Poroshenko on Truce – sure he does!
*Video of Journalist’s Beheading Spurs Calls for Alliance Against Islamists
*Abbas Peace Plan Calls for Israeli West Bank Withdrawal Within Three Years – wanna bet?
*Scotland Blitzed by Labour Activists as Voters Show Drift to Independence
*Michigan Tax on Retirees Hampers Republican Snyders’ Bid for Second Term – good!

Tuesday’s Market Summary:

Aha! Volume picked up to 2.8B shares…about 500M more than last week’s average. Uh, yeah, but…(there’s always a ‘yeah but’ with TB right? First, it was a mixed session not only the indices but A’D’s and Breadth which were negative on the NYSE and positive on the Nasdaq. Dow Utilities were the goat -0.9%, but so what…still right behind Transports (which were up 1.3% yesterday and have been particularly volatile of late), for best of the lot, ytd! The VIX rose slightly but is now back above ‘12’ which is the new neutral these days. Dow -0.1%; S&P -0.2%, the rest +0.3-0.4%. One last thing; shares traded on the NYSE floor declined slightly from their artificially high but still below average of 617M to 593M shares. Not much of a day, much less a market.

Total NYSE Volume rose to a closer to average 2.8B shares from a very weak 2.23B shares vs 2.3B vs 2.3B vs 2.4B vs 2.2B. Real NYSE Volume slipped back to 593M shares vs 617M from the new 12-month low of 491M vs 497M vs 494M. The average for last week was 522M shares from the prior week’s 558M shares – this is a new 2014 low – average volume at the closing bell was also a new low for the year of 387M shares! Note that the average for the final week of 2013 was 424M! There have been just four sessions above 800M since 4/28! The 12-month average is a historically weak 699M shares. Since 4/30 the average volume has been just 652M shares ranging from 517M to 927B….12 month high is 2.06B shares on 9/20/13!

A/D’s were mixed and minimal: -1.1x vs +2.4x vs -1.3x vs +1.3x vs +2x; Nasdaq +1.5x vs +2.4x vs -1.9x vs -1.3x vs +1.9x. Breadth was identical:: NYSE -1.2x vs +2.6x vs -1.7x vs +1.2x vs +1.9x; Nasdaq +1.7x vs +3.5x vs -1.2x vs +1.2x vs +1.7x. New 52 Week Highs were sharply higher at 374 vs 288 vs 192 vs 264 vs 318 – recent range is 46-580!!! New Lows climbed back to 56 vs 41 vs 52 vs 26! vs 50 – recent range is 24-260! S&P VIX declined slightly to 11.98 -.07. The range was 11.74-12.44 – recent low is last Monday’s 11.24 – we are again in bull territory until…

U.S. bond market was closed while Europe sank; Friday’s closes: 10 yr 2.34%; 30 yr 3.08%, the long TIP 0.82%. Overnight, playing catchup with Europe: 10’s 2.45% -1/4; 30’s 3.20% -3/8; and long TIP 0.91% -7/16. ‘Peace’ in the Ukraine (sic), is that it?
Libor update: 0.234% 3 mos.; 0.330% 6 mos., both remain near their record lows, set recently: 0.222% and 0.320% respectively! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% since 5/22/13 and is 0.08%-0.10%, where it has been for weeks! T-Bills are 0.02%-0.05% out to 6 months and just 0.09% for one year! Foreign bond yields higher (note: benchmark is the 10yrs): Germany 0.95% +2; UK 2.48% +4; France 1.34% +3; Italy 2.45% –; Spain 2.26% -1; Portugal 3.23% +1; Greece 5.74% +2, but was at 5.68%…traded to 5.58% last week. Recovery low: 5.42%; Crisis high: 12.57%. Japan: 0.52% –.

Gold was slammed, falling to its lowest level since 6/17, $1262.50, before closing at $1265.00 -$25.40!!! Last Thursday’s high was $1296.40 – this marks it’s 11th straight sub-$1300 close! It remains well below the 40/50 and 200 day m/a’s. 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! 6/9’s $1240.20 was lowest since 1/31/14!!! RES is the 200 day $1285, then the 40/50 day at $1300-04. Next support: $1260.90 – the 6/17/14 low! Recent high was $1392.60 on 3/17, highest high since 9/4/13. Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Overnight it put in another low of $1261.20 – hanging on by a thread, and is currently $1266.80 +2.50.

Crude tossed aside Friday’s surge to $94.71, with a nosedive to $92.68 before stabilizing at a weak $92.88 -$3.08! (-3.2%!). Middle East tensions easing?…pullease! 8/21’s low was $92.50, lowest since 1/15/14! There have been FOURTEEN handles since 6/30! 7/22’s high was $105.20, highest since 7/2. 7/15’s session low was $90.01 – lowest since 3/21. 6/20’s run to $107.73 was highest since 9/19/13 (a huge down session which put it in freefall. 3/2’s session low was $97.37, lowest since 2/4! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. RES at the 40 day ($98.65), then the 200 day ($99.77), then the 50 day ($99.98)…HUGE drops daily now!!! The range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is in a ‘dead cat bounce’ which took it back to $94.19 in a relatively tight inside session. It is now $94.12 +$1.24.

Global equity markets strong for a second day: UK +0.8% vs +0.1% vs ‘+’ vs -0.4% vs –; France +1.3%! vs +0.2% vs ‘+’ vs – vs -0.7%; Germany +1.4%! vs +0.5% vs ‘+’ vs -0.2% vs -1.3%; Japan +0.4% vs +1.2%! vs ‘+’ vs -0.2% vs -0.5%; Hang Seng +2.3%!!! vs – vs ‘+’ vs – vs -0.7%; Korea – vs -0.8% vs ‘+’ vs -0.4% vs –; India +0.5% vs +0.6% vs ‘+’ vs closed vs +0.3%. U.S. equity futures also strong: Dow +86 (range 85!); SPX +8.40! (11); NDQ +15.50! (17). US Market ‘gapping up on the open. All indices up except Dow Transports??? -13?

Some random thoughts:

…more grumbling from TB:

The ‘revolving door is alive and well…Eric Cantor (see story) plans to join boutique investment bank Moelis & Co., as the recently defeated House majority leader embarks on a new career on Wall Street.
Mr. Cantor, 51, will be a vice chairman and board member at the firm, effective this week.
The Virginia Republican, who lost his seat in Congress after his defeat in a June primary, will help Moelis compete for business and advise corporate and investor clients on takeovers and other deals.
Despite rumblings that he may run for governor of Virginia in 2017 or return to politics at some point, Mr. Cantor said he is focused on his new career. “I’m very focused on my next step,” he said. “I’ve got a lot to learn.”

Wish I could be a ‘loser’ and get on that gravy train…reminiscent of Robert Rubin, no?

Have a great day!

TB

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