8/29/14…end of month…end of summer…get out of here!

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “I always cheer up immensely if an attack is particularly wounding because I think, well, if they attack me personally, it means they have not single political (valid) argument left.” – Margaret Thatcher

Bloomberg Quote of the day: “Measure not the work of the day’s out and the labor done.” – Elizabeth Barrett Browning

Bloomberg Top Stories:
*Consumer Spending in U.S. Unexpectedly Falls for First Time in Six Months – Oh, joy! HEED!
*U.S. Stock-Index Futures Pare Gains as Consumer Spending Misses Estimates – boring!
*Euro-Area Inflation Slows to 0.3% as Draghi Hints at More ECB Stimulus – that was MORE!!!
*Brazil’s Economy Slips Into Recession After Contracting More Than Forecast – so much for WC!
*GE Appliance Bidder Quirky Said to Drop Out, Leaving Electrolux as Suitor – want to buy it? NO!
*JP Morgan Sees ‘Lehman Moment’ for Russian Stocks If Ukraine Crisis Weakens – brilliant!
*India’s Economic Growth Exceeds Estimates After RBI Holds Interest Rates – Bollywood!
*Nordic ‘Renaissance Proves Half Right for Banks as Krona Loses – can’t have it all!
*Goldman Sachs Becomes Madrid Landlord as investors Detect Rebound in Spain – Ole!
*Ukraine Fighting Intensifies With Russian-Backed Forces Taking Territory – sad and scary!
*Obama Says U.S. Has No Strategy Yet for Halting Islamic State Outside Iraq – ‘outside’???
*Ferguson Police Accused in Suit of using Excessive Force to Quell Protests – uh, yeah…
*Country Confusion Leads Ebola-Fearing Tourists to Cancel African Vacations – or being safe?

Thursday’s Market Summary:

Still like this market? Dull as it is ,it’s a minefield…ah, the Ukraine heating up you say! Sure, but much more than that…after all, news is fodder for high frequency traders, right? All indices were off from 0.2% (S&P/NDQ100) to 0.6% (Russell 2000), EXCEPT Dow Utilities which rose 0.5% and are now up 14.2% ytd, beating Transports by 0.6% – what does that say about the market? Continuing that theme, bonds rallied yet again to new 12-month low yields! 3.07% on the 30 yr!
Now let’s look at volume: total NYSE volume was another weak 2.3B shares (3.5B used to be average…even as recent as June, the average was 3B!). Now look at NYSE shares traded on the floor: 491M shares! Another new 12-month low! At the closing bell it stood at 393M shares and for the week that number has not exceeded 420M! Three of the four days this week have been <500M for an average of just 499M shares – 12 month average is falling but still at 698M shares – AND along with 8/14’s 517M shares the FOUR LOWEST of the year! Summer doldrums? Ah!
A/D’s and breadth were all slightly negative while New 52 week highs dropped again to 192 vs 264 vs 318. VIX rose to a more neutral 12.05 +.27 without an 11 handle once during the session.
TB can hardly wait for today…can you? Do as the BIG traders do and take the day off! It may save you money!

Total NYSE Volume was stable again at a very weak 2.3B shares vs 2.3B vs 2.4B vs 2.2B vs 2.3B vs 2.62B vs 2.56B vs 2.64B. Real NYSE Volume declined slightly to a new 12-month low of 491M shares vs 497M vs 494M vs 521M vs 567M. Last week’s average was just 558M shares – this week could be less than 500M weakest of 2014 Note that the average for the final week of 2013 was 424M! We could see a 21st century low week! There have been just four sessions above 800M since 4/28! The 12-month average is a historically weak 699M shares. Since 4/30 the average volume has been just 635M shares ranging from 517M to 927B….12 month high is 2.06B shares on 9/20/13!

A/D’s were slightly negative: -1.3x vs +1.3x vs +2x vs 1.6x vs -1.6x; Nasdaq –1.9x vs -1.3x vs +1.9x vs +1.4x vs -1.7x. Breadth was similar: NYSE -1.7x vs +1.2x vs +1.9x vs +1.5x vs +1.1x; Nasdaq -1.2x vs +1.2x vs +1.7x vs +1.9x vs +1.4x. New 52 Week Highs down sharply again to 192 vs 264 vs 318 vs 296 vs 198 – recent range is 46-580!!! New Lows reversed to their recent average: 52 vs 26! vs 50 vs 52 vs 56 – recent range is 24-260! S&P VIX rose slightly to 12.05 +.27 but did not have a single 11 handle print. The range was 12.05-12.75. Hmmm…

Bonds closed STRONG setting new 12 month lows: 10 yr 2.34% +3/16; 30 yr 3.07% +9/16, the long TIP 0.81% +5/8. Overnight, off slightly: 10’s 2.34% -1/16; 30’s 3.08% -3/16; and long TIP 0.82% -1/4 the (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5/13.
Libor update: 0.235% 3 mos.; 0.332% 6 mos., both remain near their record lows, set recently: 0.222% and 0.320% respectively! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% since 5/22/13 and is now 0.05%-0.08% from it’s usual 0.08-0.10% where it has been for weeks! T-Bills are 0.02%-0.05% out to 6 months and just 0.09% for one year! Foreign bond yields slightly higher led by the PIIGS (note: benchmark is the 10yrs): Germany 0.90% +2; UK 2.39% +2; France 1.26% +2; Italy 2.44% –; Spain 2.24% +1; Portugal 3.19% +5; Greece 5.73% +7. The recent high on selloff was 6.75%. Recently 5.42% to 12.57%. Japan: 0.48% —

Gold closed a little higher after making a run at $1300 but with a high of just $1296.40 before closing at $1289.50 +$.90 – it’s 9th straight sub-$1300. It remains well below the 40/50 and just above the 200 day m/a. 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! 6/9’s $1240.20 was lowest since 1/31/14!!! SUP is the 200 day $1285, RES the 40/50 day at $1302-06. Next support? $1270 or so! Note the recent high of $1392.60 on 3/17, highest high since 9/4/13…that too ended the session with a negative key reversal sparking the downturn! Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Overnight it is lower at $1284.60 -$4.70 with a session low of $1283.40.

Crude also tried to rally with a high of $94.71 which closed the gap from a week ago before closing slightly higher at $94.55 +.67. 8/21’s low was $92.50, lowest since 1/15/14! (big driving weekend ahead, then we may see gas following suit). It has had FOURTEEN handles since 6/30! 7/22’s high was $105.20, highest since 7/2. 7/15’s session low was $90.01 – lowest since 3/21. 6/20’s run to $107.73 was highest since 9/19/13 (a huge down session which put it in freefall. 3/2’s session low was $97.37, lowest since 2/4! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. RES at the 40 day ($99.11), then the 200 day ($99.76), then the 50 day ($100.47)…HUGE drops daily now!!! The range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is higher at $94.97 +.42 with a session high of $95.15, highest since 8/20.

Global equity markets little changed and mixed; India closed: UK +0.1% vs -0.4% vs – vs +0.4% vs closed; France – vs -0.7% vs — vs +0.6% vs +1.2%; Germany -0.2% vs -1.3% vs – vs +0.2% vs +1.2%; Japan -0.2% vs -0.5% vs +0.1% vs -0.6% vs +0.5%; Hang Seng – vs -0.7% vs -0.6% vs -0.4% vs +0.2%; Korea -0.4% vs – vs +0.3% vs +0.4% vs +0.2%; India closed vs +0.3% vs +0.4% vs – vs +0.1%. U.S. equity futures little changed after gapping slightly higher at the open: Dow +20 (range 45); SPX +3.20 (6!); NDQ +8.25 (10)

Some random thoughts:

…what are you doing wasting your time reading this…it’s Labor Day weekend, last blast of the summer (although it rained yesterday afternoon and more today which is not good for the State Fair). If you think you can out-trade the market on a day like this. Be TB’s guest…while the head traders are off for the weekend having admonished their underlings: “don’t do anything stupid, stupid!”

Enjoy your weekend…enjoy your family…enjoy life!!!

TB

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