8/26/14…bend it like Dimon…

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “It’s five o’clock and the children are still alive. I’ve done my job.” – Roseanne

Bloomberg Quote of the day: “In the right light, at the right time, everything is extraordinary.” – Aaron Rose…a rose by any other name?

(Repeating) This week’s economic calendar is full of important indicators. The highlight of the week will be the Q2 GDP 2nd Estimate (Thursday) and July Personal Income (Friday). We will also get July New Home Sales and August Dallas Fed Manufacturing (Monday), July Durable Goods Orders, June Case-Shiller Home Prices, August Richmond Fed Manufacturing and August Consumer Confidence (Tuesday), August Chicago PMI and August Consumer Sentiment Final (Friday). Courtesy of Economic Advisory Service

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Burger King to Buy Tim Horton’s for $11.4 Billion in Move to Lower Taxes – off to Canada!

*Bonds Climb as Stocks in Europe Advance; Gold Rebounds, Yen Strengthens

*European Bank Cleanup Driving Sales of $1.72 Trillion of Unwanted Assets

*Pershing Square Gains 30% in 2014 as Ackman wins on Burger King (long), Herbalife (short)

*Yellen View of Labor-Market Slack Muddied by Pent-Up Wage Deflation Thesis – see???

*China Said to Weigh $16 Billion Fund for Network of Car-Charging Stations

*Tim Horton’s Coffee Poised to Bolder Burger King’s Ailing Breakfast Menu – screw taxpayers!

*Kite Pharma Rises on Study While Best Buy Declines’ U.S. Premarket Movers

*Close Your Eyes and Imagine Biting Into a Canadian Apple Pie – as American as…Canada?

*Beirut’s Champs-Elysees Beggars Reveal Despair of Refugees From Syria War

*U.S. Starts Flights Over Syria in Possible Precursor to Strikes, AP Says

*Egypt-U.A.E. Sent Secret Airstrikes Against Libya Militants, NYT Reports – need to know???

*Israel Brings Down Second Gaza High-Rise as Egypt Leads Cease-Fire Efforts – just great!

*Self-Financed Terrorists Islamic State Now Resembles Talban With Oil Wells

Monday’s Market Summary:

Oh, yeah, TB: stocks were higher…what have you got to say about that?!? Yes, they were – led by Dow Utilities (+0.6%!), while the rest settled for 0.300.5% gains…and TB doesn’t like rallies where all the indices are up about the same. Especially low volume rallies (before a long weekend), 2.2B vs 2.3B which is incredibly weak! How weak is that? Real trades on the NYSE were just 494M shares – a new 2014 low (not even 400M at the bell!); excluding 12/24’s 272M share half-session, that is the lowest volume since11/29/13…ponder that! A/D’s and Breadth were moderately positive…but look: the VIX ROSE, just .23 but on an up day with a range of just 0.52??? – virtually non-existent and fails to confirm any rally.

Total NYSE Volume was declined again to a very weak 2.2B shares vs 2.3B vs 2.62B vs 2.56B vs 2.64B. Real NYSE Volume plunged again to THE lowest of 2014: 494M shares vs 521M vs 567M vs 542M vs 556M. Last week’s average was just 558M shares – this week won’t even do that well! There have been just four sessions above 800M since 4/28! The 12-month average is a historically weak 701M shares. Since 4/30 the average volume has been just 659M shares ranging from 517M to 927B….12 month high is 2.06B shares on 9/20/13!

A/D’s were modestly positive: +1.6x vs -1.6x vs +1.5x vs 1:1 vs +1.8x; Nasdaq +1.4x vs -1.7x vs +1.2x vs -1.7x vs +1.2x. Breadth was slightly better: NYSE +1.5x vs +1.1x vs +1.5x vs +2.1x vs +4.3x! Nasdaq +1.9x vs +1.4x vs +1.4x vs +1.3x vs +4.8x. New 52 Week Highs rose 50% to 296 vs 198 vs 266 vs 228 vs 294 – recent range is 46-580!!! New Lows about even at 52 vs 56 vs 71 vs 53 vs 60 – recent range is 24-260! S&P VIX up slightly to 11.70 +.23…on an up day? The range was an unbelievably tight .53: 11.24-11.77?

Bonds closed higher for a second day: 10 yr 2.38% +3/16; 30 yr 3.13%! +1/2, the long TIP 0.85%! +9/16. Overnight, inching higher again: 10’s 2.38% +1/16; 30’s 3.12% +3/16; and long TIP 0.84% +1/4. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5/13.

Libor update: 0.238% 3 mos.; 0.331% 6 mos., both remain near their record lows, set recently: 0.222% and 0.320% respectively! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% since 5/22/13 and is at 0.08-0.10% where it has been for weeks! Foreign bond yields generally lower and again led by the PIIGS! Germany 0.94% -1; UK 2.45% -5; France 1.28% -3; Italy 2.42%!!! -6; Spain 2.16%!!! -9!; Portugal 3.01% –; Greece 5.51%! -5; The recent high on selloff was 6.75%. Recently 5.42% to 12.57%. Japan: 0.49% -1.

Gold closed lower – traded in a $4 range! – at $1278.90 -$1.30. LastThursday, it plunged to $1272.00, lowest since 6/18 – it’s 4th straight decline and sub-$1300 close since 8/6. It remains well below the 40/50 and 200 day m/a’s. 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! 6/9’s $1240.20 was lowest since 1/31/14!!! First RES is the 200 day $1285, then the 40/50 day at $1305. Next support? $1270 or so! Note the recent high of $1392.60 on 3/17, highest high since 9/4/13…that too ended the session with a negative key reversal sparking the downturn! Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Overnight it is higher at $1288.00 +$9.10 with a high of $1291.70.

Crude had a second straight inside session closing at $93.35 -.30 – range was just 0.90! Thursday’s low was $92.50, lowest since 1/15/14! (big driving weekend ahead, then we may see gas following suit). It has had FOURTEEN handles since 6/30! 7/22’s high was $105.20, highest since 7/2. 7/15’s session low was $90.01 – lowest since 3/21. 6/20’s run to $107.73 was highest since 9/19/13 (a huge down session which put it in freefall. 3/2’s session low was $97.37, lowest since 2/4! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. RES at the 200 day ($99.77), then the 40 day ($99.93), then the 50 day ($101.21)…HUGE drops daily now!!! The range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is slightly higher at $93.57 +.22 with a range of just 42 cents!!!

European equity markets higher, Asia mixed: UK +0.4% vs closed vs -0.1% vs +0.2% vs -0.5%; France +0.6% vs +1.2% vs -0.8% vs +0.8% vs -0.8%; Germany +0.2% vs +1.2% vs -0.4% vs +0.6% vs -0.07%; Japan -0.6% vs +0.5% vs -0.3% vs +0.9% vs –; Hang Seng -0.4% vs +0.2% vs +0.5% vs -0.7% vs +0.2%; Korea +0.4% vs +0.2% vs +0.6% vs -1.4% vs +0.1% vs +0.9%; India – vs +0.1% vs +0.2% vs +0.2% vs -0.4%. U.S. equity futures slightly higher: DOW +27 (range 49); SPX +3.40 (6); NDQ +8 (10).

 

Some random thoughts:

…Jamie Dimon says “I love America’ and yes he does as it made him rich…but do anything for it? No freaking way! He and his bank have been shoveling money offshore along with the rest of the ‘proud’ Americans…bet he flies an American flag 24/7 too…would also bet he never did a day of public service in his life…especially military service! TB hates all those ‘proud’ Americans with the flags flying in their yards who act as unpatriotic as they can. (Talk of ‘the Mittster’ making another run for the Oval Office…perhaps he can ‘splain to us this time his $100M plus 401(k) and offshore accounts…could sink him!)

The latest announced overnight where Burger King is buying Tim Horton’s for better coffee and as much as everyone likes to laugh at ‘socialist’ Canada, a better tax deal! Where are the public pension funds on this? Why aren’t they selling in droves Medtronic and any other company who does this? Meanwhile the poor employees get to foot the bill…along with long-time shareholders getting hit with tax implications. Where the hell is Congress? Lining their coffers and pockets with money to keep the beat going on. Is this a great country or what? …well it used to be!

Remember Leona Helmsley? “Paying taxes is for the little people.” – talk about being ahead of her time!

Remember what TB said yesterday about getting out and having fun instead of warping your mind and spirit by watching screens all day? Well…today he is off to the Minnesota State Fair, voted THE BEST in the country…take that Iowa! Can’t think of a single reason to stay here at my desk looking wanly at the lake…can you?

Have a great day!

 

TB

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