7/25/14…round and round she goes, where she stops…

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “I have a great dog. She’s half Labrador, half pit bull. It’s a good combination. Sure, she might bite off my leg, but she’ll bring it back to me.” – Jimi Celeste

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “It is better to be hated for what you are than to be loved for what you are not.” – Andre Gide
Bloomberg Top Stories:
*Orders for U.S. Capital Goods Rose 1.4% in June After Revised Drop in May
*U.S. Stock-Index Futures Fall With Europe Shares on Earnings; Dollar Drops
*Russia Unexpectedly Raises Interest Rates as Economy Faces Sanctions Test – !?!
*U.K. Economy Overcomes Record Slump as Growth Forecast to Power Past U.S.
*RBS First-Half Profit Almost Doubles as McEwan Reduces Costs; Shares Soar
*AbbVie Second-Quarter Profit Exceeds Analysts’ Estimates on Humira Sales
*U.K. Prosecutors Said to Alert Ex-Alstom Employees of Charges After Probe – why can’t the U.S. do that?…hello, Eric Holder and Co.!
*Nortel Networks U.S. Unit Agrees to Pay Bondholders $1 Billion in Interest – a long wait!
*Deutsche Bank Seen Reporting Fourth Consecutive Decline in Trading Revenue – 4 strikes?
*New York Plaza Owner in Slammer Seeks to Use Prison House to Find Buyers – Italian prison!
*Netherlands Despairs Its 194 Murdered See No Justice as Russia Trade Rules – very sad, over war zone so will life insurance pay off? Russia won’t own up so are survivors out in the cold? Worse governments and even corporations (Royal Dutch) won’t act for fear of reprisals!!!
*Russia Accused by U.S. of Shelling Across Border as Kiev Coalition Falls – more sickness!
*U.S.-Backed Temporary Cease-Fire Being Considered to End Conflict in Gaza – considered!!!
*Putin Said to Press Ahead With Ukraine Gambit After Malaysian Jet Attack…right out of Adolph Hitler’s playbook…and the rest of the world sat and watched…history does repeat!
*Border-Funding Impasse Would Leave Agencies With Few Tools to Stem Crisis – see the GOP doesn’t want to fund securing the border so they can keep railing that it is unprotected – sick!!!
Thursday’s Market Summary:

Call it a neutral day, and one on rising volume but still weak. A/D’s and Breadth were meaningless, The Dow, Dow Transports and Nasdaq Composite were all unchanged! Dow Utilities rose 0.3% for honors, while the Russell 2000 was worst at -0.2%. The VIX rose but remains below ‘12’ and thus in bull territory.

Total NYSE Volume rose to a near average 3.09B shares from a weak 2.05B shares vs 2.87B vs 2.58B vs 3.1B vs 3.35B shares. Recent high volume was 4.25B (end of quarter). Real NYSE Volume was better but still at a weak 631M shares vs 581m vs 589M three days after plunging to 541M, the third lowest of 2014 (531M was the low) – with 236M at the bell!!! 537M on 7/3 was second weakest since April 30th .. There have been just two sessions above 800M since 4/28! The 12-month average remains at a very weak 704M. Since 4/30 the average volume has been just 671M shares ranging from 531M to 1.72B.

A/D’s were insignificant again: NYSE-1.1x vs +1.4x vs +2.2x vs -1.7x vs +4.5x vs -4.3x; Nasdaq -1.2x vs 1:1 vs +2x vs -1.6x vs +3.7x vs -2.5x. Breadth was similar: NYSE +1.2x vs +1.07x vs +2.3x vs -1.6x vs +3.6x vs -5.3x!!! Nasdaq +1.2x vs +1.2x vs +1.7x vs +2.3x vs +1.07x vs +6.2x!!! vs -3.7x! New 52 Week Highs steady at 280 vs 284 vs 276 vs 376 vs 150 – recent range is 71-580!!! New Lows slid back to 55 vs 70 vs 49 vs 76 vs 77 vs 132 – recent range is 24-214. S&P VIX rose for the first time in three sessions closing at 11.85 +.34 with a narrow range of 11.43-12.06. Follow closely.

Other markets:

Bonds closed weaker for a 2nd session with both the 30-yr and long TIP still near 12 month highs: 10 yr closed at 2.50% -5/16. 30 yr closed 3.29% -9/16. The long TIP was weaker again at 0.93% -5/16, two days after setting a new 12-month low of 0.90%. Overnight they are mixed: 10’s 2.51% -1/16; 30’s 3.29% +1/16; and long TIP 0.93% +1/8 Cycle highs: 30 yr high was 3.97% on 12/31; the 10 yr recent high 3.03%! Long TIP was 1.64%. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5/13.
Libor update: 0.234% 3 mos.; 0.328% 6 mos., both remain near their record lows, set recently: 0.222% and 0.320% respectively! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% since 5/22/13 and is 0.08-0.10% where it has been for weeks! Foreign bond yields lower, Greece plunging for a 2nd day – back below 6%! Germany 1.16% -1; UK 2.60% -1; France 1.56% -1; Italy 2.70% -3; Spain 2.52% -3; Portugal 3.62% -5; Greece 5.87% -19!!! The recent high on selloff was 6.75%. Highly volatile!!! Recently 5.42% to 12.57%. Japan: 0.53% +1.

Gold did a header not only breaking $1300 but trading down to $1289.40, before closing at $11292.70-$13.80! – not only lower than 7/15 but breaking the string of five straight closes above $1300 after falling the prior four days! Psychological support back at $1300. 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! Now 3 closes below $1300 in 23 sessions since plunging on 4/14! 6/9’s $1240.20 was lowest since 1/31/14!!! It broke 2 of the 3 key moving averages which remain near locked and were CRITICAL…support that is now MAJOR RESISTANCE: 50 day $1293, the 40 day $1295 with final support very close at the 200 day $1287!!! Note the recent high of $1392.60 on 3/17, highest high since 9/4/13, then ended the session with a negative key reversal sparking the downturn! Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Overnight it is slightly higher at $1297.50 +$4.80 with a session low of $1298! The three straight inside sessions provided fair warning as suggested by TB!.

Crude also closed lower at $102.07 -.97. Tuesday’s high was $105.20, still highest since 7/2. 7/15’s session low was $90.01 – lowest since 3/21 – SIX handles since 6/30! 6/20’s run to $107.73 – highest since 9/19/13, a huge down session – put it in freefall with critical support at $99.94 – the 200 day! 3/2’s session low was $97.37, lowest since 2/4! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. RES at the 50 day ($103.87), then the 40 day $104.09, and the 200 day $99.92!!! The range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is weaker again at $101.62 -.45.
European equity markets weak Asia higher, ex-India: UK -0.2% vs +0.1% vs +0.7% vs -0.3% vs -0.4%; France -0.8% vs +0.8% vs +0.7% vs -0.4% vs -0.2%; Germany -0.5% vs +0.6% vs +0.7% vs -0.9% vs -0.7%; Japan +1.1% vs -0.3% vs +0.8% vs closed vs -1%; Hang Seng +0.3% vs +0.7% vs +1.7%!!! vs -0.3% vs -0.3%; Korea +0.4% vs -0.1% vs +0.5% vs -0.1% vs -0.1%; India -0.6% vs +05% vs +1.2%! vs +0.3% vs +0.3%. U.S. equity futures weaker: DOW -16 (range 42); SPX -3 (5!); NDQ -11 (9!)

Some random thoughts:

…only the high frequency traders know! If you like risking your retirement money in a market that is rigged against you – both up and down by day traders with enormous clout, have fun. Stocks are not in bubble mode…yet, and might not get there if they keep pushing them up or down within ranges for their benefit while you have nothing to show for it. Remember CNBC is the equivalent of FOX NEWS…you decide.

…Have a fantastic relaxing weekend!



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