7/14/14…obfuscated truths

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “Confidence, what you start off with before you completely understand the situation.” – anon

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: unavailable

This week’s economic calendar is full of important indicators. The highlight of the week will be the June Retail Sales (Tuesday) and June PPI (Wednesday). We will also get July Empire State Manufacturing, June Import/Export Prices and May Business Inventories (Tuesday), June Industrial Production (Wednesday), June Housing Starts and July Philadelphia Fed (Thursday) and July Consumer Sentiment Preliminary and June Leading Indicators (Friday). Courtesy of Economic Advisory Service

Bloomberg Top Stories:
*Unavailable due to computer malfunction

Friday’s Market Summary:

Another rally of sots – will for most indices, but strange bedfellows were losers: Dow Utilities -0.5% and Russell 2000 -0.2%??? The rest ranges from +0.2% (Dow/S&P) to +0.6% (NDQ 100). Ah but the volume declined and was very weak – not a good sign for bulls. Same goes for shares traded on the NYSE floor: a very weak 583M vs a below average 654M shares.
Bonds closed up slightly for a second day while Gold had a narrow inside session closing at $1337.40 -$1.80, while Crude plunged to $100.44 – lowest since May 13th and closed at $100.83 -$2.10!!! It has been up just once in the last 10 session!

Total NYSE Volume plunged back to 2.66B shares from a more normal 3.14B vs 2.82B vs 3.22B vs 2.66B vs an extremely weak 1.99B. Last real above average volume was 4.25B (end of quarter). Real NYSE Volume also plunged to 583M from a below-average 654M vs 570M vs 683M vs 602M vs 537M – second weakest since April 30th vs 597M –contrast to 1.49B at end of quarter. That and options expiry’s 1.72B shares the only ones above 800M since 4/28! The 12-month average slipped again a very weak 704M. Since 4/30 the average volume has been just 675M shares ranging from 531M to 1.72B.

A/D’s were more or less neutral: NYSE +1.2x vs -2.3x vs +1.3x vs -1.5x vs -2.2x; Nasdaq 1:1 vs -3x! vs +1.2x vs -3.8x vs -3.9x. Breadth was similar! NYSE +1.1x vs -2.7x vs +2.2x vs -2.6x vs -3.4x; Nasdaq +1.3x vs -2.2x vs +1.5x vs -6.2x!!! vs -3.5x. New 52 Week Highs rose to a still sub-average 146 vs 118 vs 145 vs 93!!! vs 187 vs 324 vs 319 vs 580 – recent range is 71-580!!! New Lows reversed again to 57 vs 118 vs 49 vs 53 vs 27 vs 26 – recent range is 24-214.
S&P VIX declined but ‘12’ held closing at 12.09 -.50 – still negating the rally attempt and makes suckers out of those who bought just before quarterend. The range was 12.09 -12.68. 7/3’s close was a new recent low 10.32, barely taking out 10.34 on June’s options expiration!

Overnight markets:

Bonds closed slightly better again. 10 yr closed at 2.52% +3/16. 30 yr closed 3.34% +5/8. The long TIP, which hit a low of 0.978% on 5/29, closed 0.96%!!! –, Overnight they are slightly weaker: 10’s 2.53% -3/32; 30’s 3.34% -1/16; and long TIP n/a. Cycle highs: 30 yr high was 3.97% on 12/31; the 10 yr recent high 3.03%! Long TIP was 1.64%. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5/13.
Libor update: 0.234% 3 mos.; 0.326% 6 mos., both remain near their record lows, set recently: 0.222% and 0.320% respectively! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% since 5/22/13 and is 0.08-0.10% where it has been for weeks! Foreign bond yields unavailable. Friday: Germany 1.20% +1; UK 2.62% -1; France 1.64% –; Italy 2.90% -5; Spain 2.77% -4; Portugal 3.84% -12; Greece 6.14% -2 The recent high on selloff was 6.75%. Highly volatile!!! Recent range 5.42% to 12.57%. Japan: 0.53% -1.

Gold closed slightly weaker in a narrow inside session at $1337.400 -$1.80. Thursday’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! 7/3’s low of $1310.00 was lowest since 6/20 while 7/1’s high was $1334.90 – highest since 3/24! This is the 15th straight close above $1300 since plunging on 4/14! 6/9’s $1240.20 was lowest since 1/31/14!!! It is above all three key moving averages which remain locked: 50 day $1291, then the 40 day $1290 and 200 day $1288 Key is the psychological $1300 level. It appears stalled after coming back from the 3/17 selloff when it set the recent high of $1392.60, highest high since 9/4/13! Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Overnight it is WEAK at $1319.30 -$18.10!!!

Crude turned toxic a day after its first positive in 10 sessions, closing at $100.83 -$2.10!!! The session low was $100.44 – lowest since 5/13 – FIVE handles since 6/30! 6/20’s run to $107.73 – highest since 9/19/13, a huge down session – has it in freefall with critical support next at $99.95 – the 200 day! 6/5’s low of $101.60 was lowest since 5/16. 3/2’s session low was $97.37, lowest since 2/4! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. It is now below the 40 and 50 day moving averages and heading for the 200 day! RES at 50 day $103.43, 40 day $104.26, SUP the 200 day $99.96!!! The range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it couldn’t hold and is lower at $100.45 -.38. OUCH!!!

European equity markets strong; Asia not so much: UK +0.8% vs – vs -0.8% vs -0.4% vs -0.6%; France +0.8% vs +0.2% vs -1.4% vs +0.2% vs -0.5% vs -1%; Germany +0.9% vs -0.1% vs -.1.4% vs +0.2% vs -0.5%; Japan +0.9% vs -0.3% vs -0.6% vs -0.1% vs -0.4%; Hang Seng +0.5% vs – vs +0.3% vs -1.6% vs –; Korea +0.3% vs -0.7% vs +0.1% vs -0.3% vs +0.1%; India -0.1% vs -1.4%! vs -0.3% vs -0.5% vs -2%! U.S. equity futures unavailable.

Some random thoughts:

…keep your eyes on the Middle East…especially Israel…they are making a major mistake and fueling the Muslim violence. Also, ignore all those right-wing lunatics that would have you believe that it is all Obama’s fault and we had better dive in.

Same goes for their beliefs in immigration…how to become the most hated nation in North America…the America’s? Better look back at the current immigration law passed by 100:0 in the Senate…AND signed into law by George W. Bush. True, Obama has stretched it with some interpretation but can’t we be honest folks? Apparently not!

Have a great week!

TB

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