7/11/14…craps anyone? TB’s got nothin’ to say!

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “If her lips are o fire and she trembles in your arms, forget her. She’s got malaria.” – Jackie Kannon

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Even if you fall on your face, you’re still moving forward.”
– Victor Kiam

Bloomberg Top Stories:
*Wells Fargo Net Rises While EPS Fails to Extend 17-Quarter Streak of Gains – this is where those ‘low’ dividend yields make you feel like a ‘sukkah’ – stock down 1.5%!
*Banco Espirito Santo Lifts Lid on Group Exposure After World Markets Hit
*Reynolds in Talks to Buy Lorillard as Shareholder BAT Approves Transaction
*Stocks in U.S. Fluctuate(?) While Portuguese Bonds Rebound (sort of); Crude Falls
*Complacency Disrupted as Risks Stir From Portugal to Puerto Rico to Israel
*Radian, MGIC Must Fill Capital Gap Under Fannie-Freddie Proposal
*Gazprom Stuck With $1.8 Billion Tax Bill After Ukraine Doesn’t Pay for Gas
*Greek Banks See Quadrupling Home Loans as Foreclosure Ban Lifts
*No Periphery Panic as Bond Losses Pale Versus 2012 Peak – and likely to hold!
*Germany Uncouples From Past as Post-Berlin Wall Players Win World Cup Fans – not Brasil!
*Daughter Not Buying Dad’s Promoting U.S. Home Ownership as Young Hold Back – TB agrees!
*Israel Calls Up 33,000 Reserves as Rockets Cause First Civilian Casualty – they got sucker-punched by Hamas into what is rapidly becoming a global religious war…jihad???
*Kerry Meets Afghan Presidential Contenders to Resolve Electoral Deadlock – like for Bush?
*Egypt Seeks Gaza Broker Role With Hamas While Crushing Islamists at Home – not funny!
*Cuomo Seeks to Ensure Long Island Rail Labor Strife Won’t Harm Re-Election – uh-huh

Thursday’s Market Summary:

Surprise, surprise…a down day…and a bad one that saw the Dow plunge 180 points before completing a ‘dead cat bounce’ to close at down 70 (session high late in the morning was -28!0! Still that was only off 0.4% while all the rest were in a range of -0.2%-0.5…except the Russell 2000 -1%! Of course Dow Utilities were green at +0.6% while NYSE Financials were slaughtered: -0.8% vs +0.3% vs -1.2%: Brokers -1.2% vs -0.5% vs -2.1% vs -1.1%; KBW Banks -0.7% vs +0.4% vs vs -1.1% vs -0.7%; Nasdaq Banks -1%! vs +0.1% vs -1.1% vs -1%! Very ugly! BAC 3rd most active again -1% vs +0.1% vs -2.2%!!! Bonds closed up slightly, while Gold rallied nearly $15 and even battered Crude closed $102.93 +.64 a day after a new low of $101.80, lowest since 5/16/14, and breaking its string of NINE straight declines and lowest close since 5/14!

Total NYSE Volume rose to a more normal 3.14B vs 2.82B vs 3.22B vs 2.66B vs an extremely weak 1.99B vs 2.83B. Last real above average volume was 4.25B (end of quarter). Real NYSE Volume plunged rose on stock decline to a still weak 654M shares vs 570M vs 683M vs 602M vs 537M – second weakest since April 30th vs 597M –contrast to 1.49B at end of quarter. That and options expiry’s 1.72B shares the only ones above 800M since 4/28! The 12-month average is a very weak 705M. Since 4/30 the average volume has been just 677M shares ranging from 531M to 1.72B.

A/D’s were turned negative again: NYSE -2.3x vs +1.3x vs -1.5x vs -2.2x vs +1.3x; Nasdaq -3x! vs +1.2x vs -3.8x vs -3.9x vs +2.1x. Breadth was similar! NYSE -2.7x vs +2.2x vs -2.6x vs -3.4x vs +2.8x; Nasdaq -2.2x vs +1.5x vs -6.2x!!! vs -3.5x vs +2.2x vs -1.01x vs +3.7x. New 52 Week Highs dropped back to a weak 118 vs 145 vs 93!!! vs 187 vs 324 vs 319 vs 580 – recent range is 71-580!!! New Lows more than doubled to 118 vs 49 vs 53 vs 27 vs 26 vs 27 – recent range is 24-214.
S&P VIX rose nearly a point on the selloff to 12.64 +.99 which negates the rally attempt and makes suckers out of those who bought just before quarterend. The range was 12.05 -13.23!!! 7/3’s close was a new recent low 10.32, barely taking out 10.34 on June’s options expiration!

Overnight markets:

Bonds closed slightly better again. 10 yr closed at 2.53% +1/8. 30 yr closed 3.37% +1/8. The long TIP, which hit a low of 0.978% on 5/29, closed 0.99%!!! –, Overnight they are continuing to rally: 10’s 2.53% +1/8; 30’s 3.35% +3/8; and long TIP 0.97%!!! +7/16. Cycle highs: 30 yr high was 3.97% on 12/31; the 10 yr recent high 3.03%! Long TIP was 1.64%. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5/13.
Libor update: 0.234% 3 mos.; 0.326% 6 mos., both remain near their record lows, set recently: 0.222% and 0.320% respectively! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% since 5/22/13 and is 0.08-0.10% where it has been for weeks! Foreign bond yields mixed, Portugal coming back…sort of: Germany 1.20% +1; UK 2.62% -1; France 1.64% –; Italy 2.90% -5; Spain 2.77% -4; Portugal 3.84% -12; Greece 6.14% -2 The recent high on selloff was 6.75%. Highly volatile!!! Recent range 5.42% to 12.57%. Japan: 0.53% -1.

Gold closed strong at $1339.20 +$14.90! Session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! 7/3’s low of $1310.00 was lowest since 6/20 while 7/1’s high was $1334.90 – highest since 3/24! This is the 15th straight close above $1300 since plunging on 4/14! 6/9’s $1240.20 was lowest since 1/31/14!!! It is above all three key moving averages which remain locked: 50 day $1291, then the 40 day $1290 and 200 day $1288 Key is the psychological $1300 level. It appears stalled after coming back from the 3/17 selloff when it set the recent high of $1392.60, highest high since 9/4/13! Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Overnight it is slightly lower in a narrow range at $1336.80 -$2.40.

Crude had its first positive in 10 sessions…and not impressive, closing at $102.93 +.64. Wednesday’s low was $101.80 – lowest since 5/16 – FIVE handles since 6/30! 6/20’s run to $107.73 – highest since 9/19/13, a huge down session – has it in freefall with critical support next at $99.95 – the 200 day! 6/5’s low of $101.60 was lowest since 5/16. 3/2’s session low was $97.37, lowest since 2/4! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. It is now below the 40 and 50 day moving averages and heading for the 200 day! RES at 50 day $103.43, 40 day $104.26, SUP the 200 day $99.96!!! The range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it couldn’t hold and is lower at $101.86 -$1.07. Can’t hold $102!

Global equity markets little changed; India and Korea weak: UK – vs -0.8% vs -0.4% vs -0.6% vs -0.5%; France +0.2% vs -1.4% vs +0.2% vs -0.5% vs -1%; Germany -0.1% vs -.1.4% vs +0.2% vs -0.5% vs -0.5%; Japan -0.3% vs -0.6% vs -0.1% vs -0.4% vs -0.4%; Hang Seng – vs +0.3% vs -1.6% vs – vs – ; Korea -0.7% vs +0.1% vs -0.3% vs +0.1% vs -0.2%; India -1.4%! vs -0.3% vs -0.5% vs -2%!!!. U.S. equity markets opening mixed: DOW -42; SPX +1; NDQ 100 +1

Some random thoughts:

…running late and thinking about the weekend…you should be too! Have fun! It’s pouring in Minneapolis…we want our summer back!!! Remember, there is NO global warming!!! Hold that thought…instilled by the Koch brothers!

TB

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