6/17/14…if TB were a Clinton…

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “My parents used to send me to spend summers with my grandparents. I hate cemeteries.” – Chris Fonseca

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “I learned the value of hard work by working hard.”
– Margaret Mead

Bloomberg Top Stories:
*Siemens Says $193 Billion Bid Fro Alstom Exceeds Value of Offer From GE
*Maersk Slides Most in Tow Years After China Blocks Global Shipping Venture – WOW!!!
*Stocks Pare Gains Before Fed Meeting; Gold, Crude Oil Retreat With Aussie; Bonds flat!
*Jefferies Reports Net Trading Revenue Declines 5% as Net Income Increases – hmmmm
*Deutsche Bank Entertained 45 Japan Pension funds, Regulatory Report Shows – arigato!
*Krugman’s Jibes Linger as Sweden’s Biggest Party Targets Review
*SNB Seen Shielding Swiss Franc for Longer as ECB Policy Sustains Pressure
*We’re All Macroprudentialists Now as Carney Prime BOE to Tackle Bubbles – unlike U.S.!!!
*High-Speed Boys Finally Get Their Day in Congress, Sort of…nothing to see here, folks!
*Kravis Still Shaking Wall Street Steers Buyout Firm Into Merchant Banking
*Iraq Gunmen Attack city North of Baghdad as Obama Weighs Military Options – what options?
*Obama Courting Iran for Iraq Help Risks upsetting U.S. Alliances in Region – OY VEY!!!
*Wealthy Clintons use Trust to Avoid Full Bite of Estate Tax They Champion – but of course!
*Kenya Coastal Towns Are Hit by New Attacks as Police Search for Assailants
*China’s Brewing Subprime Crisis Belies Leadership Reality – view by William Pesek

Monday’s Market Summary:

A mixed day on higher but still below average volume. The Dow was Flat, Dow Transports -0.3%!, and the rest up from 0.1-0.4%…the rest that is, except Dow Utilities +1.8%!!! vs +0.6% vs +0.4% vs -1.2%!!! NYSE Financials declined by 0.4%. Due to the Medtronics/Covidian deal, BofA slipped to third most active and declined 1% vs +0.1% vs -1.1% vs -2.1%. Citi wasn’t a most active like it was on Friday but it closed flat after plunging 1.4%!

Total NYSE Volume reversed yet again rising to a still weak 2.91B shares vs 2.58B vs 3.03B vs 2.67B vs 2.69B vs 2.8B vs 2.84B vs 3.1B – that is one big string of weak sessions! Real trades on the floor of the NYSE rose slightly to a still extremely weak 604M shares vs 575M vs 621M vs 532M vs 557M vs 608M. The 12-month average slipped again to a very weak 714M shares.
A/D’s were neutral to barely positive: NYSE 1:1 vs +1.3x vs -1.4% vs -1.6x vs -1.4x; Nasdaq +1.2x vs +1.04x vs -1.8x vs -1.5x vs -1.2x. Breadth was similar: NYSE +1.04x vs +2.2x vs -2.2x vs -1.6x vs -1.01x; Nasdaq +1.5x vs +1.8x vs -2x vs +1.05x vs +1.3x. New 52 Week Highs however rose after declining for five sessions to 251 vs 171 vs 186 vs 193 vs 256 vs 515 vs 532 – recent low 71!!! New Lows were dead in the water and very weak at 34 vs 36 vs 30 vs 25 vs 24 vs 25 vs 36 vs 66 vs 96 – recent range is 24-214.
S&P VIX not only remained above ‘12’ for a fourth straight session but rose to 12.65 +.47 and with a range of 12.28-12.87 – first time the low end has been above 12….13 is the key here and the low end is moving higher! There have now been FOUR straight closes above ‘12’ in 15 sessions. You do know that the long-term average is ‘20’, right?

Overnight markets:

Bonds closed slightly better. 10 yr closed at 2.60% +1/16. 30 yr closed 3.39% +3/8. The long TIP, which hit a low of 0.978% on 5/29, closed 1.10% +13/16! Overnight they are unchanged: 10’s 2.60% +1/32; 30’s 3.40% +1/32; and long TIP 1.10% +1/64. Cycle highs: 30 yr high was 3.97% on 12/31; the 10 yr recent high 3.03%! Long TIP was 1.64%. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5/13.
Libor update: 0.231% 3 mos.; 0.326% 6 mos., both remain just off their record lows, set recently: 0.227% and 0.320% respectively! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.08% since 5/22/13 but is finally slightly higher at 0.09% -0.10%. Foreign bond yields slighltly lower, ex-Greece, which remains strong! Germany 1.35% -1; UK 2.74% -1; France 1.71% -2; Italy 2.75% -2; Spain 2.63% -2; Portugal 3.34% -1; Greece, which took out the old lows is now 5.72% +5. The recent high on selloff was 6.75%. Highly volatile!!! Range is now 5.42% to 12.57%. Japan: 0.59% –.

Gold closed little changed despite a surge in the European market to a new high of $1285.10 – still highest since 5/27 when it plunged – but settled at $1275.300 +$1.60. 6/9’s $1240.20 was lowest since 1/31/14!!! It hit $1304.10 on 5/22 – the last time it saw $1300! It remains way below the 40/50/200 days and the psych support level of $1300 with first res at the 40 day $1280, then the 50 day $1286, and the 200 day $1291 – convergence continues and thus formidable resistance! It has fared poorly since the ‘key reversal’ on 3/17, after printing the recent high of $1392.60, highest high since 9/4/13! Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Overnight it is falling at $1265.90.30 -$9.40….session LOW $1262.80 – WOW!

Crude had a narrow inside session and closed accordingly at $106.90 -.01, following two straight up days in which it touched $107.69 on Iraq issue – still highest since 9/19/13 – a huge down day. 6/5’s low of $101.60 was lowest since 5/16. 3/2’s session low was $97.37, lowest since 2/4! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. It is well above all three moving averages: 40 day ($102.41) then the 50 day ($102.54), and 200 day $100.15. The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is slightly lower at $106.40 -.50 with a low of $106.01.

European equity markets slightly higher, Asia mixed, India strong: UK +0.1% vs -0.3% vs -1.1%!!! vs +0.2% vs -0.5%; France +0.2% vs –0.6% vs -0.8% vs +0.2% vs -0.8%; Germany +0.3% vs -0.3% vs -0.8% vs +0.1% vs -0.9%; Japan +0.3% vs -1.1%! vs +0.8% vs -0.6% vs +0.5%; Hang Seng -0.4% vs -0.1% vs +0.6% vs -0.4% vs -0.3%; Korea +0.4% vs +0.1% vs -1%!!! vs -0.2% vs +0.1%; India +1.3%! vs -0.2% vs -1.4%!!! vs +0.4% vs -0.4%; U.S. Stock Index Futures slightly higher: DOW +19 (range 50); SPX +2.40 (6!); NDQ +7 (10!!!).
Some random thoughts:

…now its the Clintons…champions of the estate tax who having gone from poor as church mice when they left the White House to multimillionaires by putting their pen where their mouth is. But seriously, folks, can you blame them? Wouldn’t you do it – you bet your would but that doesn’t mean its right…or does it?

Actually, its less insidious than many of the schemes and scams the top 1% pull over on us, but will it play politically in 2016? Expect the wrath of the GOP to fall upon their heads and shoulders…nevermind that Romney was possibly the biggest scammer of all!

But the point is that one percent…even the top 1%…of Americans cannot provide for solid economic growth…do the math: how many private jets, yachts, homes, cars, can you buy with that much money…a pittance. Congress created this mess with the able help of the ‘K’ Street boys and it is up to them to fix it…true…but will they? Doubtful!

Have a great day!

TB

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