4/23/14…leaving on a jet plane…

…back on May 15th…occasional commentaries while TB is gone…

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “A car is useless in New York; essential everywhere else. The same with good manners.” – Mignon McLaughlin – do tell!

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “We don’t see things as they are; we see them as we are.”
– Anais Nin

Bloomberg Top Stories
*Europe Economy Signals Show Accelerating Expansion Even as Prices Decline
*Billionaire Drahi Pays Up to Tempt U.S> Investors in Record Junk-Bond Sale
*Emerging Stocks Fall With Europe Shares on China Economy as Copper Drops
*Apple’s Slowing IPhone Sales Threaten Outlook for Shares After 5% Decline
*Goldman Poised to Gain Share as Barclays Joins Banks’ Commodities Exodus – hmmm
*Drugmakers’ Strategy in Deal Frenzy Is to Be Best, First or to Step Aside – Lee Iacoca?
*Killing Dark Pools Is CME Chairman’s Fix for Stock Market He Calls Broken – he’s right!!!
*Boeing First-Quarter Earnings Beat Estimates as Year View Boosted on Tax Pact
*Novartis Cancer Move Adds Spice to Crosstown Oncology Rivalry with Roche
*Toyota Tops Global Auto Sales for Third Straight Quarter on China, Japan
*Beach-Vacation Stock Trading Shows Russian Brokers Benefiting From Crisis – ugh!!!
*’Acktivism’ May Be a Better Term to Describe Allergan Takeover – as in Ackman!
*Goldman Sachs, UBS Alumni Redefine Boutique as Tiniest Firms Win Big Deals
*Ukraine Resumes Operations to Oust Militants in East Amid Russian Warnings
*U.S. Will Deliver Military Aid to Egypt After Kerry Supports Relationship…relationship???
*Plane-Hunt Patience Becomes Virtue as Submarine Searches Can’t Be Rushed
*South Korea Asks China to Persuade North Against Conducting Nuclear Test – !!!

Tuesday’s Market Summary
A an up session of sorts with all indices up from 0.4% (DOW) to 1.2% (Russell 2000) except the ‘hot’ Dow Utilities which were flat for a second session following Thursday’s 1.1% decline which scarcely dented its performance…nothing to see here. Nasdaq Composite came in second again at +1% vs +0.6%; NDQ 100 +0.8%; Dow Transports +0.6%, while the S&P and Dow were both up 0.4%. End result: useless information due to too much white noise.
Volume rose slightly but insignificantly …of course…it was an UP day: 3.18B shares vs a WEAK 2.62B vs 3.31B vs 3.14B vs 3.72B while actual trades on the NYSE rose only slightly to a still well-below average 679M shares vs a WEAK 603M (second only to 1/3’s 544M share day!), this from a strong 834M shares on a mixed sessions. Drilling down further: 675M vs 746M (12 mo. ave. slipped to 724M shares!)
NYSE Financials were up 0.5% vs +0.3% vs +1% vs +0.4% vs +0.6% vs -1% vs -2.1%, Brokers +1.6% vs +0.1% vs +1.1% vs +2% vs +0.8% vs +0.8% vs -2% vs -2.8%; KBW Banks +0.8% vs -0.1% vs -0.4% vs +0.3% vs +0.8% vs +0.7% vs -1.1% vs -3%; Nasdaq Banks +0.4% vs -0.2% vs +0.2% vs +0.5% vs +0.2% vs +0.3% vs -0.7% vs -2.5%!!! BofA most active: +1.2% vs -0.4% vs +0.1% vs -1.6% vs +1.9% vs +1.5% vs -2.2% vs -2.9%. Closed $16.29 -.20 – 2014 low is $15.62. No other active financials.
Advance/Declines were solidly positive…the NYSE was 2.7x vs +1.6x vs +1.4x vs +3.8% vs +1.6x vs +1.9x vs -2.5x vs -3.4x! Nasdaq +2.6x vs +1.5x vs +1.8x vs +2.5x vs -1.1x vs +1.1x vs -3.8x! vs -6.3x!!! Breadth was better on Nasdaq: NYSE +2.5x vs +1.5x vs +1.6x vs +3.3x vs +1.7x vs +2.9x vs -4.2x! vs -7.4x!!! Nasdaq +3.6x! vs +2.3x vs +1.6x vs +4.3x! vs +1.3x vs +1.3x vs -5x!!! Nasdaq 100 Advance/Declines were +3:1 vs +7:3 vs +1.6:1 vs +2.5:1 vs +1.5:1 vs +4.6:1 vs –44:1! vs -100:1!!! on the 100!!!
New 52 Week Highs rose to a solid 206 vs 169 vs 191 vs 144 vs 88 vs 89 vs 42, while New Lows were halved to 20 vs 48 vs 57 vs 49 from 198!!! vs 135 vs 151! – 16 is the cycle low . Lastly, Volatility (VIX) declined slightly but for a FIFTH day to 13.25 -.11 with a range of 13.17-14.11. Friday 4/10’s range was 15.89-17.85! – highest since 3/14! The low of 12.60 just on 4/4 and lowest since Jan. 22!

Overnight Comments:

Bonds: a very strange session: 10 yr closed up just one tick? Meanwhile the long end closed up ½ and the long TIP up nearly a point??? Close: 10 yr 2.71% +1/32; 30 yr 3.49% +1/2; TIP 1.17%! +15/16!!! Overnight slightly higher: 10’s 2.70% +1/16; 30’s 3.49% +3/32; Long TIP 1.16%! +1/8. Cycle highs: 30 yr high was 3.97% on 12/31; the 10 yr recent high 3.03%! Long TIP was 1.64% The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5/13. Libor update: 0.229% 3 mos.; 0.323% 6 mos., both just off their record lows: 0.226% and 0.320%! The Fed is driving this by continuing to pay 0.25% on their excess reserves – why lend??? Fed has no choice in financing the securities they bought in the QE’s! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.08% since 5/22/13 and is 0.08% -0.09%. Foreign bond market yields mostly lower – ex-Greece: Germany 1.53% -1; UK 2.69% -2, – recent high 3.03%! France 2.01% –; Italy 3.09% -1; Spain 3.04% -2; Portugal 3.63% -1; Greece 5.89% +4 vs 5.85% vs 5.93% vs 6.08% vs 6.29%!!! vs 6.15%!!! vs 5.77%!!!. Range is 5.77% to 12.57%. Japan: 0.61 +1.

Gold closed lower yet again at $1281.10 -$7.40 and thenonly after rebounding from $1275.80 – lowest since Feb. 10th!!! April Fool’s rally began at $1277.40 and is now totally negated! Last Wednesday briefly created a ‘double bottom’ at $1284.40 which was unceremoniously taken out last Thursday rendering it meaningless. That after trading to $1324.90 – highest since 3/24 just six sessions ago. It is well below all three moving averages and the psych support level of $1300 with first res at the 200 day $1301, then the 50 day $1320, and the 40 day $1323 – now off $86 in 26 sessions following the reversal on 3/17 after printing new recent high of $1392.60, highest high since 9/4/13 – that ended in an outside day and nearly a negative key reversal! Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Overnight it is bouncing higher at $1287.40 +$6.30.

Crude closed WEAK at $102.13 -$2.24, after plunging to $101.69, lowest since 4/8!!! – two days ago it traded up to $104.99, highest since March 4 and a big rally. On April Fool’s Day it finally broke above the 40/50 and 200 day m/a’s, trading up to $102.24. Like Gold, the rally is negated! 3/2’s session low was $97.37, lowest since 2/4! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. First SUPPORT is the 50 day ($101.43) AND the 40 day ($101.42), followed by the 200 day at $100.85. The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is $101.41 -.34 with a new low of $101.20!!!…still lowest since 4/8.

Global equity markets weaker except India and the contrarian Nikkei: UK -0.2% vs +1% vs closed vs +0.6% vs +0.3%; France -0.4% vs +1% vs closed vs +0.6% vs +0.8%; Germany -0.3% vs +1.5%! vs closed vs +1% vs – vs +0.8%; Japan +1.1% vs -0.9% vs – vs +3%!!! vs +0.6%; Hang Seng -1%! vs -0.1% vs closed vs +0.3% vs +0.1% vs -1.6%! Korea -0.2% vs +0.3% vs -0.3% vs +0.6% vs –; India UP 0.5% vs – vs +0.6% vs +1.6%! vs -0.9% vs-0.6%. U.S. equity futures little changed in a narrow trading range: DOW -9 (range 29); S&P -2.20 (4!); NDQ -6 (11).

Blue skies in Minnesota…headed for Florida tomorrow…will post from time to time until 3/15.

Have a great day!

TB

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