4/11/14…poor (rich) Jamie Dimon…beaten by a (Wells Fargo) stagecoach!

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “You give the people what they want, they’ll turn out.” – A rival producer, observing the crowd at Louis B. Mayer’s funeral.

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “When humor goes, there goes civilization.” – Erma Bombeck

Bloomberg Top Stories:
*JPMorgan Profit Falls Greater-Than-Estimated 19% on Lower Trading Volume!!!
*Wells Fargo Posts 14% Profit Increase as Fewer Customers Default on Loans – a real bank!
*Wholesales Prices in U.S. Rise More Than Forecast on Services
*Stocks Fall Amid Tech Rout as S&P 500 Futures Decline on JPM Earnings – told ya!
*BMW Will Recall 489,000 Cars Worldwide Due to Possible Engine-Bolt Defect – even them!
*Pimco Spots Value in Russia After Crimea Selloff while Giving Up on Turkey – traitors!!!
*Citigroup Mexico Employee Said to Take Records Tied to Loan Fraud at Unit – hmmm will
they give him a bonus for that…like they did to the guy who joined the Obama administration?
*U.S. as Global Growth Engine Moving at Putt-Putt Speed Instead of Purring – or worse!
*Stocks Don’t Always Go Up and Some Other Reassuring Thoughts – sorry to tell you that!
*Golf Course Owners Recover From Toughest Slump in U.S. as Players Return
*Sebelius Resignation as U.S. Health Chief May Give More Room on Obamacare – ?
*Ukraine Premier Yatsenyuk Bids to Calm East After U.S. Sanctions Warning
*Testosterone Drugs Are Put Under Review by EU Regulator Over Heart Risks
*Ukrainian Miners Don Camouflage Gear as Uprising in Donetsk (Don’t Ask?) Mimics Maidan
*The Stock Market’s Plunge Is Waiting for Your Fantasies: Barry Ritholtz

Thursday’s Market Summary:

Yesterday was…in a word…a disaster! The market struggled all day and went out just off the lows. True to form, Total NYSE Volume rebounded to a solid 3.73B shares from a low 3.3B shares vs 3.7B vs 3.77B vs 3.6B vs 3.03B shares. REAL NYSE Volume (if there is a such thing anymore!), also rose sharply to 771M shares from a weak 703M vs 836M (highest in a week) vs 781M vs 661M vs 653M vs 724M (12 mo. ave!) vs 847M vs 639M. All indices were down by more than 1.5% except the ‘best of the year’ Dow Utilities which were off just 0.5% and are now up 9% ytd! +0.5% this ugly month which has seen all the indices down by 1.75% (Dow) or more. Banks are the worst for the month: KBW -4.7% and Nasdaq Banks -4.1% – didn’t TB warn you of that? They will be even worse today as JPM earnings plunged 19% – worse than anyone expected – in pre-market trading it is $55.77-55.80 – $1.40 or 2.4% following yesterday’s 1.2% drop…Jamie???
Of the major indices yesterday the worst were the two Nasdaqs, -3.1% and -2.9% respectively; the Russell 2000 -2.6%; S&P -2.1%; Transports -2.1% and the Dow -1.6%. NYSE Financials plunged 2.1% vs +1.4% vs +0.2% vs -1.5% with Brokers -2.8%!!! vs +1.4% vs +0.6% vs -2.1%; KBW Banks -3%!!! +0.5% vs flat vs -1.6%; Nasdaq Banks -2.5%!!! vs -0.1% vs +0.1% vs -0.7%.
BofA most active: -2.9%!!! vs +1.1% vs +0.3% vs vs -1.9%! vs -2.5%! Closed $16.14 -.46! Lowest since Jan. 27th!

Advance/Declines were very negative…the NYSE was -3.4x! vs +2.7% vs +2.1x vs -2.1x vs -1.9x vs -1.5x, Nasdaq -6.3x!!! vs +2.9% vs +1.9x vs -3.2x vs -4.9x! vs -2.3x. Breadth was extremely negative: NYSE -7.4x!!! vs +2.7% vs +2.2x vs -4.4x!!! vs -1.9x vs -1.5x; Nasdaq -14.5% – ouch!!! vs +6.3%! vs +2.2x vs -3.1x vs -7.3x!!! Looks like a trend to TB! Declining issues beat Advancers reversing two days of gains by -7.8:1!!! vs +3:1 vs +2.1 vs -3.4:1 vs -6:1 on the Composite and by -100:1!!! vs +7.4:1! vs +3:1 vs -4:1 vs -97:4 on the 100!!! New 52 Week Highs dropped sharply to 97 vs 138 vs 60 vs 56 vs 268 vs 273 vs 327 vs 306 vs 226 vs 110, while New Lows way more than doubled to 91 vs 37vs 56 vs 107 vs 71 vs 31 vs 18 – within 2 of their cycle low . Lastly, Volatility (VIX) surged by 15%!!! from the lowest in four sessions closing at 15.89 +2.07!!! The range was 13.81-16.38 – highest since 3/17!…tell it goodbye! Yesterday TB said; the decline “could be a set-up for a week from Friday’s options expiry.” Prophetic? The low of 12.60 just five days ago – was lowest since Jan. 22!

Overnight Comments:

Bonds: lost rallied sharply yesterday while the curve put on a ‘bull flattener’ (10’s +3/8; 30’s +1 pt; Long TIP +1-5/16 – six days after the 10’s took replaced the 3/3 high of 2.79% with a 2.80% BUT, like a bad golfer, no follow-through! (Latest: 10 yr 2.62% +1/4; 30 yr 3.47%+7/8; TIP 1.18% +1-1/8! Recent highs: 30 yr high was 3.97% on 12/31; the 10 yr recent high 3.03%! Long TIP recent high was 1.64% The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5/13. Libor update: 0.226% 3 mos.; 0.322% 6 mos. for yet another new low as the Fed continues to pay 0.25% – they have no choice in financing the securities they bought in the QE’s! both steady at their new record low! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.08% since 5/22/13 and is glued to 0.07% -0.09%. Foreign bond yields lower ex-Greece – is up 32bp’s from the NEW post-crisis low – duh! The bond auction is past – sukkahs!!! Germany 1.50% -2; UK 2.60% -2, – recent high 3.03%! France 2.00% -1; Italy 3.21% +5; Spain 3.20% +4; Portugal 3.91% +6; Greece 6.15%!!! up from 5.77%!!!. Range now 5.77% to 12.57%. Japan: 0.60% –.

Gold had a STRONG session with a high of $1324.90 – highest since 3/24 – and closed at $1320.50 +$13.60. Just 7 days after trading down to $1277.40, lowest since 2/10. Back above the 200 and 50 day with the 40 day in striking distance. Perhaps today? Last Friday was the 1st close above the 200 day and $1300 in eight sessions! – now off $52 in 19 sessions following the reversal on 3/17 after printing new recent high of $1392.60, highest high since 9/4/13 – that ended in an outside day and nearly a negative key reversal! Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Psych level: $1300 sup, with technical support below at the 50 day $1313 then the 200 day, $1299, and first res just above at the 40 day, $1326. Overnight an ‘inside day’ and currently $1321.10 +.60.

Crude did nothing after surging for two days to $103.77, highest since March 4. It closed at $103.40 -.20. On April Fool’s Day it finally broke above the 40/50 and 200 day m/a’s, trading up to $102.24. Can it hold here? Last Wednesday’s session low was $98.86, lowest since 3/25! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. First SUPPORT is the 40 day ($101.13), then the 200 day ($100.67), and finally the 50 day ($100.60). The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is slightly weaker at $103.13 -.27.

European equity markets and Japan SLAMMED!!! Rest of Asia weaker: UK -1.1%! vs +0.3% vs +0.8% vs -0.8% vs -0.8%; France -1.3%! vs +0.1% vs +0.4% vs -0.7% vs -0.8%; Germany -1.7%! vs +0.3% vs +0.2% vs -0.7% vs -1.5%!!! Japan -2.4%!!! vs – vs -2.1%!!! vs -1.4%! vs -1.7%! Hang Seng -0.8% vs +1.5%!! vs +1.1%! vs +1%! vs -0.6%; Korea -0.6% vs +0.5% vs +0.3% vs +0.2% vs +0.1%; India -0.4% vs +0.1% vs +1.6% vs closed vs -0.1%. U.S. equity futures following suit: DOW -80 (range 133); SPX -8.70 (17); NDQ -24.25 (38).

Spring in Minnesota…for a fifth day…the god’s must be crazy!

Have a terrific weekend!

TB

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