4/10/14…ah, the joys of Spring…when it comes!

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “Friday afternoon I’m walking home from school and I’m watching some men build a house. And the guy hammering on the roof calls me a paranoid little weirdo. In Morse code. – Emo Phillips

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Our character is what we do when we think no one is looking.” –
H. Jackson Brown, Jr. …does he mean a character? Like Snoopy??? Kermit???

Bloomberg Top Stories:
*First-Time Jobless Claims in U.S. Decline to Lowest Level Since May 2007 – for the WEEK!
*Bonds Rally as U.S. Interest Rate Increase Concern Fades; Yen Strengthens
*EBay Ends Proxy Fight With Icahn, Agreeing to Add an Independent Director – the point is?
*High-Frequency Trading Still Enigma for SEC After Four Years as Priority – a priority?
*Greece Bond Sale Tops $4 Billion in Market Return After Four-Year Hiatus – SELLt!!!
*U.K. Scraps Right to RBS Dividend as Lender Moves to Shareholder Payouts
*GM Puts Two Engineers on Paid Leave Amid Probe of Faulty Ignition Switches
*Breaking Up Not So Hard to Do at Companies From Baxter to Hertz – a trend…
*Rebounding Euro Leaves Debt Crisis Behind Though Flaws Exposed – ya think???
*Trailer Parks Lure Wall Street Investors Looking for Double-Wide Returns
*Gross Picks Up Pieces at Pimco After ‘ Near-Death Blow’ of El-Erian’s Exit – awww poor Bill
*Australian Search Plane Detects Possible Signal in Indian Ocean MH370 Hunt
*Argentina’s Biggest Unions Shut Down Transport to Protest Inflation, Crime
*France’s Finance Chief Takes Measure of Slower Deficit Cuts to Washington
*Group Urging 2016 Clinton Presidency Bid Raises $1.7 Million in Early 2014
*Medicare Has Become a Liability for Democrats Thanks to Obama

Wednesday’s Market Summary:

Yesterday was an up day? Question: was volume high or low? This is getting too easy…LOW!!! Not only that but boring! Total NYSE Volume dropped back to a low 3.3B shares vs a well above average 3.7B shares vs 3.77B vs 3.6B vs 3.03B shares. REAL NYSE Volume (if there is a such thing!), also dropped to a weak 703M shares from a well above average 836M shares (highest in a week) vs 781M vs 661M vs 653M vs 724M (12 mo. ave!) vs 847M vs 639M. All indices were up led by the laggard Nasdaqs up 1.7% vs +0.8% and up 1.8% vs+0.9%. Next came Transports +1.6% vs flat, with the Dow and S&P each up 1.1% vs only +0.1% and +0.4%! Dow Utilities the winner for the month and year to day were off just 0.2% vs +1.7% – i[ 9.5% ytd!!! NYSE Financials were up 1.4% vs +0.2% vs -1.5% with Brokers +1.4% vs +0.6% vs -2.1%; KBW Banks +0.5% vs flat vs -1.6%; Nasdaq Banks -0.1% vs +0.1% vs -0.7%.
BofA most active: +1.1% vs +0.3% vs vs -1.9%! vs -2.5%!

Advance/Declines were positive…the NYSE was +2.7% vs +2.1x vs -2.1x vs -1.9x vs -1.5x, Nasdaq +2.9% vs +1.9x vs -3.2x vs -4.9x! vs -2.3x. Breadth: NYSE +2.7% vs +2.2x vs -4.4x!!! vs -1.9x vs -1.5x; Nasdaq +6.3%! vs +2.2x vs -3.1x vs -7.3x!!! Would have been impressive if the volume had risen! Advancers bested decliners for a second day but by +3:1 vs +2.1 vs -3.4:1 vs -6:1 on the Composite and by +7.4:1! vs +3:1 vs -4:1 vs -97:4 on the 100!!! Again, had volume been even average it would have been impressive but not with a WEAK NDQ 100!
New 52 Week Highs more than doubled to 138 vs 60 vs 56 vs 268 vs 273 vs 327 vs 306 vs 226 vs 110, while New Lows dropped back to 37vs 56 vs 107 vs 71 vs 31 vs 18 – within 2 of their cycle low . Lastly, Volatility (VIX) declined sharply to the lowest in four sessions although it remains elevated. The high Tuesday was 16.20 after climbing three straight sessions – highest since 3/24, and closed at 13.82 -1.07 and back below all three moving averages – could be a set-up for a week from Friday’s options expiry The low of 12.60 just four days ago – was lowest since Jan. 22! Yellow flags remain waving.

Overnight Comments:

Bonds: lost slightly yesterday and are up coming back a bit overnight. Five days after the 10’s took out the 3/3 high of 2.79%! (10’s 2.69% vs 2.68%, 3/3 high 2.80%; 30’s 3.57% vs 3.54% from 3.73%). Latest: 10 yr 2.68% +1/16; 30 yr 3.57% +1/8; TIP 1.27% +3/16. Recent ranges: 30 yr high was 3.97% on 12/31; the 10 yr recent high 3.03%! Long TIP recent high was 1.64% The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5/13. Libor update: 0.227% 3 mos. at record low, 0.324% 6 mos. for yet another new low as the Fed continues to pay 0.25% – they have no choice in financing the securities they bought in the QE’s! both steady at their new record low! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.08% since 5/22/13 and is steady at 0.07% -0.09%. Foreign bond yields lower ex-Greece – which set a NEW post-crisis low yesterday!!! Germany 1.54% -3; UK 2.65% -4, – recent high 3.03%! France 2.04% -4; Italy 3.15% -5; Spain 3.15% -5; Portugal 3.85% -3; Greece 5.82% +5 – but closed yesterday at 5.77%!!!. Range now 5.77% to 12.57%. Japan: 0.60% -1.

Gold had an ‘inside’ session and closed at $1305.50 -$3.20 a day after hitting $1314.70, highest since 3/26. Just six days after trading down to $1277.40, lowest since 2/10. Back above the 200 day but still below the 40/50. It has been in trouble since imploding three weeks ago, breaking all supports. Last Friday was the 1st close above $1300 in eight sessions! – still off $66 in 18 sessions following the reversal! On 3/17 it printed a new recent high of $1392.60, highest high since 9/4/13 – that ended in an outside day and nearly a negative key reversal and has been down every day since! It had closed above the psychological $1300 every day since 2/12! Friday was the first close above the 200 day since 2/14, and is again first support. Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Psych level: $1300 sup, with technical support below at the 200 day, $1297, and first res just above at the 50 day, $1312, then the 40 day, $1325. Overnight strong with another rally to $1324.90, highest since 3/24 and currently $1318.50 +$12.70.

Crude surged for a second day to $103.77, highest since 3/4 before closing at $103.37 +.81! On April Fool’s Day it finally broke above the 40/50 and 200 day m/a’s, trading up to $102.24. Can it hold here? Last Wednesday’s session low was $98.86, lowest since 3/25! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. First SUPPORT is the 40 day ($100.96), then the 200 day ($100.59), and finally the 50 day ($100.36). The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it traded up to $102.84 and it is slightly weaker at $103.32 -.27.

Global equity markets mixed with Hong Kong strong for a THIRD day; Japan remains weak: UK +0.3% vs +0.8% vs -0.8% vs -0.8% vs +0.4%; France +0.1% vs +0.4% vs -0.7% vs -0.8% vs +0.3%; Germany +0.3% vs +0.2% vs -0.7% vs -1.5%!!! vs +0.4%; Japan – vs -2.1%!!! vs -1.4%! vs -1.7%! vs -0.1%; Hang Seng +1.5%!! vs +1.1%! vs +1%! vs -0.6% vs -0.2%; Korea +0.5% vs +0.3% vs +0.2% vs +0.1% vs -0.3%; India +0.1% vs +1.6% vs closed vs -0.1% vs -0.7%. U.S. equity futures little changed in the usual narrow range: DOW -6 (range 55); SPX -0.10 (10); NDQ +0.25 (25).

Spring in Minnesota…for a fourth day…it’s baseball season, ya know?

Have a great day!

TB

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