4/7/14…high-frequency market, low-frequency world

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “Did you hear they’re building an archive for the Nixon papers? No admission charge – but you have to break in.” ka-ching!

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Never be afraid to sit awhile and think.” – Lorraine Hansberry

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Stocks Decline Amid Tech Selloff as Spanish, Italian Bonds Fall With Crude – off 79 cents?

*Technology Traders Run for Exits as Puts Trade Most Since 2010 FLASH CRASH!!!

*Banks Including Goldman Stand to Reap $100 Million in Lafarge-Holcum Deal – SICK!!!

*BlackRock Boost Top Ranks in Second Executive Reorganization in Two Years – hmmmm

*Fortress Declines With Tudor as Last Year’s Winning Macro Wagers Backfire – LMAO!!!

*Emerging Market Crisis Talk Vanishes as Lira to Rupiah Rebound – ya never know!

*Fannie-Freddie Elimination Model Starts With Apartment-Lending – hmmm?

*Amazon Price-Earnings Ratio is 572, So What’s Your Problem? Ask Graham and Dodd!!!

*High-Frequency Din Rises as Trading Inquiries Evoke Market’s Past Scandals

*Malaysia Jet Investigators Report Pings Consistent With Black Box Signals – or a sick whate!

*Ukraine Says Russia Kindling Unrest as Protestors Seize Official Buildings

*Jeb Bush to Decide on 2016 Election this Year Shunning Immigrant Rhetoric – not a chance!

*Dutch Police Probe Deaths of Former ABN Banker Schmittman, Wife, Daughter – thought to be a murder/suicide – due to huge stress in the financial community – stay tuned

This week’s economic calendar is fairly light. The highlight of the week will be the March PPI (Friday). We will also get February Consumer Credit (Monday), February JOLTs Job Openings (Tuesday), February Wholesale Inventories (Wednesday), March Import & Export Prices and March Treasury Budget (Thursday), and March Consumer Sentiment Preliminary (Friday). Courtesy of Economic Data Service

Friday’s Market Summary:

Aha! Total NYSE Volume ‘surged’ to a slightly above average 3.6B shares from a well ‘bellow average’ 3.03B shares…finally, right? Ah but every index was off from 1% (Dow) to -2.7% (NDQ 100)! Nasdaq Composite -2.6%; Russell 2000 -2.4%; Dow Transports -1.5% and the S^P 500 -1.3%. One winner…can you guess it? DOW UTILITIES +0.4% for a second straight sessions – exactly offsetting the prior two days of losses! REAL NYSE Volume (and if you still don’t know what that means read Flash Boys!), also rose to a well above average 781M shares vs  a very weak 661M vs 653M vs 724M (12 mo. ave!) vs 847M vs 639M  So you see, the bad news was we finally had an above average session and what happened? The market dove!!! Insanity is playing in a market and pretending you are in control when you are just another sucker!

This makes NO sense: NYSE Financials -0.8% vs -0.2% vs +0.2% vs +0.2% vs +1.3% vs +1.1%. Why? L.ook: Brokers –3.6%!!! vs -2.2%!?! vs +0.8% vs +1.4% vs +2%; KBW Banks -1.4% vs FLAT vs +1.2% vs +1.2% vs +1.2%, and Nasdaq Banks -2.1% vs FLAT vs -0.2% vs +1.6% vs +1.6%. BofA again most active -2.5%! vs -0.5% vs -0.5% vs +0.8% vs +1.3% – to 16.72 -.43, breaking $17 – last time was a week ago and it stayed there for just one day…same for 3/14 also a Friday! It broke out above $17 on March 5th! Hmmm

NYSE Volume slipped further to a weak 3.0B! shares vs 3.1B vs 3.3B vs 3.35B…note 3.5B is 12-month average! REAL floor trades rose slightly to a still-weak 661M shares vs 653M from an average 724M vs 847M vs 639M shares. Advance/Declines and Breadth were negative – especially the struggling Nasdaq…the NYSE was -1.9x vs -1.5x vs +1.4x vs +2.5x and -2.4x vs +2.1x vs +2.6x, Nasdaq -4.9x! vs -2.3x vs +1.3x vs +3.1x and -7.3x!!! vs +1.6x vs +6x!!! Why was Nasdaq so negative? Decliners beat advancers by 6:1 on the Composite and by 97 to FOUR on the 100!!! Not good when the Nasdaq’s are underperforming as they have all year!

New 52 Week Highs were slightly lower at 268 (owing to that surge on the open!) vs 273 vs 327 vs 306 vs 226 vs 110, while New Lows more than doubled to an unimpressive 71 vs a very weak 31 vs 18 – within 2 of their cycle low . Lastly, Volatility (VIX) rose for a second day not by that much but with a range of 12.60 – lowest since Jan. 22! – the high being right on the convergence of the 40 and 200 day m/a’s: 14.55! It closed at 13.96 +.59.after trading down to 13.02 intraday closing at 13.37 +.28 – yet still five straight days below 14 after 16 sessions above with a high close of 17.82 on 3/14 and an intraday high of 18.22. Yellow flags waving!

Overnight Comments:

Bonds: closed strong led by the long TIP, but still nothing conclusive and finally the curve steepened from 10’s to 30’s after flattening most of the week after the 10’s took out the 3/3 high of 2.79%! (10’s 2.72%!!! vs 2.80%, 3/3 high 2.79%; 30’s 3.58% vs 3.62% from 3.73%). Overnight the long end is slightly weaker, 10’s unchanged: 10 yr 2.72% -1/32; 30 yr 3.59% -3/16; TIP 1.29% -1/4. Recent ranges: 30 yr high was 3.97% on 12/31; the 10 yr recent high 3.03%! Long TIP recent high was 1.64% The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5/13.  Libor update: 0.229% 3 mos, 0.327% 6 mos. –  another new record low for 6 mo: 3 mos  0.230%; 6 mos 0.327%! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.08% since 5/22/13 and is steady at 0.07% -0.09%. Foreign bond yields mostly higher (ex-Japan), following Friday’s BIG rally: Germany 1.55% –; UK 2.68% — – recent high 3.03%! France 2.05% +2; Italy 3.20% +3; Spain 3.20% +6!; Portugal 3.84% +2; Greece 6.06% +3. but off yet another new post-crisis low!!! Recent range 6.03% to 12.57%. Japan: 0.61% -3!!!

Gold closed STRONG AND above $1300 at $1303.20.60 +$18.90 with a session high of #1306.10, just three days after trading down to $1277.40, lowest since 2/10. It has been in trouble since imploding two weeks ago, breaking all supports. 1st close above $1300 in eight sessions! – still off $69 in 15 sessions  following the reversal! On 3/17 it printed a new recent high of $1392.60, highest high since 9/4/13 – that ended in an outside day and nearly a negative key reversal and has been down every day since!It had closed above the psychological $1300 every day since 2/12! First close above the 200 day since 2/14, which is now first support. Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!!  Psych level: $1300 res/sup, AND technical at the 200 day, $1297, with res just above at the 50 day, $1309, then the 40 day, $1323!!! Overnight below $1300 again at $1299.00 -$4.50.

Crude closed higher and now above $101 with a session high of $101.60 before closing at $101.14 +.85. Six days ago it finally broke above the 40/50 and 200 day m/a’s, trading up to $102.24, highest since 3/10, then the bad April fool’s joke: two closes below par! It had been back above $100 for just six days. Last Wednesday’s session low was $98.86, lowest since 3/25! On 3/10, it had a high of $102.82 then plunged below the 200 day! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. First SUPPORT is now the 40 day ($$100.89), then the 200 day ($100.52), and finally the 50 day ($100.14). The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is weaker in quiet trading at $100.40 -.79

Global equity markets WEAK: UK -0.8% vs +0.4% vs -0.1% vs +0.2% vs +1%; France -0.8% vs +0.3% vs -0.3% vs — vs +1.1%! Germany -1.5%!!! vs +0.4% vs -0.2% vs +0.1% vs +0.7%; Japan -1.7%! vs -0.1% vs +0.8% vs +1%! vs -0.2%; Hang Seng -0.6% vs -0.2% vs +0.2% vs +0.3% vs +1.3%!!! Korea +0.1% vs 0.3% vs -0.2% vs +0.3% vs +0.3% vs +2.3%!!!; India -0.1% vs -0.7% vs -0.2% vs +0.5% vs +0.3%. U.S. equity futures lower in another narrow range which has become the norm: DOW -46 (range 63); SPX -0.40 (11); NDQ -26 (30).   

Spring has come to Minnesota…at least for now!

Have a great day!

TB

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