4/4/14…another month and still sluggish job growth

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “I’ve reached an age where I look just as good standing on my head as I do right side up.” – Frank Sullivan  

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Intelligence is the ability to adapt to change.” – Stephen Hawking

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Payrolls in U.S. Rose 192,000 (200k median!)  in March as Unemployment Rate Holds at 6.7%

*U.S. Stock Index Futures Extend Gains After Payrolls Strengthened in March – lower the bar!

*Goldman Sachs Wins as Credit Suisse loses in Michael Lewis’s League Table – cheaters…

*JPMorgan Folds London Whale Investment Office Into Another Business – what now a con?

*GM Know-Nothing CEOs are Exception to Post-Tylenol Accountability Standard – very sick!

*Barclays Backed by Traders as Mexican Rate Bets Postponed to 2015

*Brooklyn is Top of the Food Chain, Just as Bekya Said It Was – rappers rule!

*Physicist Who Put the Bang in the Cosmos Seeks Signs of Multiple Universes

*Life-or-Death Afghan Election Tests Taliban Battle to Overthrow Democracy

*Ukraine Sets Sights on $13.5 Billion of Aid as European Unions Warns Russia – too little too…

 

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls +192k in March vs median +200k; Feb. Revised UP 22k! Jan +15k! Government jobs unchanged; Factory Jobs -1k; Construction +19k

Unemployment Rate steady at 6.7%…add discouraged workers 7.1% -.01…add marginally-attached 8.0% -.01…add part-timers who want full-time employment +12.7 +.01 – nice huh?

Participation Rate 63.2% +0.2%, Average hourly wages unchanged, up 2.3% y-o-y. low!!!

Market Reaction (9am EST): Bonds added to their small o/n gains: 10’s 2.765 +3/8; 30’s 3.11% +7/16; Long TIP 1.31% +5/8. Dollar slightly lower. U.S.stock index futures spiked: DOW +59; SPX +7.70’ NDQ +20 – the 100 is higher but not that much…stay tuned!

 

Thursday’s Market Summary:

Don’t know what to call yesterday…anticipation? …or trepidation over today’s payroll.s report? (Just came out +192k in March; unemployment steady at 6.7%. Biggest casualties were the Russell 2000 -1%, and the two Nasdaq’s -0.9%/-0.8%. Dow FLAT; S&P 500 -0.1%; Dow Transports -0.2%; Dow Utilities the only gainer +0.4% vs -0.2% vs -0.6% – finally ridding itself of the ‘goat’ mantle.

NYSE Financials -0.2% vs +0.2% vs +0.2% vs +1.3% vs +1.1%. Brokers -2.2%!?! vs +0.8% vs +1.4% vs +2%; KBW Banks FLAT vs +1.2% vs +1.2% vs +1.2%, and Nasdaq Banks FLAT vs -0.2% vs +1.6% vs +1.6%. BofA again most active -0.5% vs -0.5% vs +0.8% vs +1.3% – to 17.14 -.09, can it hold $17?

NYSE Volume slipped further to a weak 3.0B! shares vs 3.1B shares vs 3.3B vs 3.35B…note 3.5B is 12-month average! REAL floor trades rose slightly to a still-weak 661M shares vs 653M from an average 724M vs 847M vs 639M shares. Advance/Declines and Breadth were negative…the NYSE was -1.5x vs +1.4x vs +2.5x and +2.1x vs +2.6x, Nasdaq -2.3x vs +1.3x vs +3.1x and +1.6x vs +6x!!! – that last one on Nasdaq Breadth was impressive and obviously due to the surge in the NDQ 100 (-2:1 vs +2:1 vs 93:6!). New 52 Week Highs slipped to 273 vs 327 vs 306 vs 226 vs 110, while New Lows rose but to a very weak 31 vs 18 – within 2 of their cycle low vs 30 vs 38 vs 56. Lastly, Volatility (VIX) finally rose after trading down to 13.02 intraday closing at 13.37 +.28 – now four straight days below 14 after 16 sessions above with a high close of 17.82 on 3/14 and an intraday high of 18.22.

 

Overnight Comments:

Bonds: closed better but merely offset Wednesday’s loss AND THE CURVE FLATTENER continues with 10’s not responding after taking out the 3/3 high of 2.79%! (10’s 2.80% vs 2.81%, 3/3 high 2.79%; 30’s 3.62% vs 3.65% from 3.73%). Overnight, slightly better ahead of payrolls with 10’s continuing to lag : 10 yr 2.79% +1/16; 30 yr 3.62% +3/16; TIP 1.32% +1/4. Recent ranges: 30 yr high was 3.97% on 12/31; the 10 yr recent high 3.03%! Long TIP recent high was 1.64% The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5/13.  Libor update: 0.230% 3 mos, 0.328% 6 mos. –  new record lows set Monday: 3 mos  0.230%; 6 mos 0.328%. NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.08% since 5/22/13 and is steady at 0.07% -0.09%. Foreign bond yields mixed with Portugal gaining ground; Greece is DIW today: Germany 1.62% +2; UK 2.76% +1 – recent high 3.03%! France 2.11% -1; Italy 3.24% -2; Spain 3.21% -1; Portugal 3.87% -8 vs 4.00%!!! Greece 6.04% +1. yet another new post-crisis low!!! Recent range now 6.03% to 12.57%. Japan: 0.64% –.

Gold closed lower in meaningless trading at $1284.60 -$6.20, two days after trading down to $1277.40, lowest since 2/10. It has been in trouble since imploding two weeks ago, breaking all supports. Now seven straight sessions closing below $1300 since 2/12!!! – off $88 in 14 sessions  following the reversal! On 3/17 it had a new recent high of $1392.60, highest high since 9/4/13 – that ended in an outside day and nearly a negative key reversal and has been down every day since!It had closed above the psychological $1300 every day since 2/12! …and above the 200 day since 2/14, which is now first resistance!!!. Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!!  Psych level: $1300 res, AND technical res at the 200 day, $1297, then the 50 day, $1309, and the 40 day, $1322!!! Overnight higher again at $1293.80 $9.20.

Crude higher and finally back above par again and in the middle of the three moving averages! This, just five days after finally breaking above the 40/50 and 200 day m/a’s and hitting $102.24, highest since 3/10. It closed at $100.29 +.67, after two days below $100. It had been back above $100 for six days. Wednesday’s session low was $98.86, lowest since 3/25! On 3/10, it had a high of $102.82 then plunged below the 200 day! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. First RES is now the 40 day ($$100.81), with support at the 200 day ($100.51), and then the 50 day ($100.07). The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is higher again at $101.16 +.87

European equity markets higher, Asia weaker: UK +0.4% vs -0.1% vs +0.2% vs +1% vs +0.3%; France +0.3% vs -0.3% vs — vs +1.1%! vs -0.1%; Germany +0.4% vs -0.2% vs +0.1% vs +0.7% vs +0.1%; Japan -0.1% vs +0.8% vs +1%! vs -0.2% vs +0.9%; Hang Seng -0.2% vs +0.2% vs +0.3% vs +1.3%!!! vs +0.4%; Korea –0.3% vs -0.2% vs +0.3% vs +0.3% vs +2.3%!!!; India -0.7% vs -0.2% vs +0.5% vs +0.3% vs +0.2% vs +0.6% vs +0.5%. U.S. equity futures slightly higher ahead of payrolls in another narrow range which has become the norm: DOW +24 (range 18!!!); SPX +3 (3!!!); NDQ +10(8!!!) – gapped up on open!   

Snowing again in Minneapolis…and not just a little!

Have a great weekend! Stay thirsty my friends…

Have a great day!

TB

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