3/25/14…no more random thoughts…get your own!

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “A guilty conscience is the mother of invention.” – Carolyn Wells…whatever happened to the Mothers of Invention?

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Kindness is always fashionable.” – Amelia Barr…in Congress???

Bloomberg Top Stories:
*European Stocks Climb With U.S. Futures; Ruble Strengthens, Metals Advance – on what???
*JPMorgan Investment Bank Co-CEO Cavanagh to Join Carlyle Group – smart man! Get out!
*GM Recall Accused of Missing Chevrolet Cobalt With Faulty Ignition Switch – worse and worser
*Wall Street Banks Cut Out of Most-Prized Commercial Mortgages by Insurers – penance?
*Pimco Chases BlackRock in Exchange-Traded Funds as Money Returns to Bonds – for now!
*Greylock Backs Ukraine Debt as GoldenTree Eyes Russia Bonds From Conflict – sukkahs!
*Russia Reshapes Oil Politics Aiding china as U.S. Facers Costs With Europe – so what!
*U.K. Inflation Rate Falls to lowest level Since 2009 as Fuel Prices Drop – for now…
*Madoff Jurors Said Five Aides Were Bernie’s Willing Soldiers in His Scheme
*Putin Threatened Wit More Sanctions as Leaders Exclude Russia From G-8- one less meeting!
*China’s Toxk Smog Forces Debate on Health Trade Offs of Growth Quicktake
*NSA Phone-Data Collection Said to end Under House Revamp of U.S. Spying
*Ex-Deutsche Bank Risk Manager Broeksmit Said to Be Anxious Before Suicide – wouldn’t you?

Tuesday’s Market Summary:

If you are a bull your best argument is: we haven’t finished with the quadruple witching as once again stocks were weak…sure the Dow lost just 0.2%, Transports 0.1% and even the S&P just 0.5%. But look at the two Nasdaqs (-1.2% and -1%), and the Russell 2000 -1.3%!!! Only winner was Dow Utilities at up 0.2% vs +0.8%! NYSE Volume, of course, dropped from that big 5.09B shares Friday but still to a only slightly below average 3.39B shares while shares traded on the floor of the NYSE, were an above average 729M shares from 2.0B shares, not only the highest of ’14, but a 12-month high! TB repeats: rallies on low volume; declines on high volume – especially the real NYSE trades which are not impacted by the high freaks!
NYSE Financials off 0.1% for a second day (?); look inside: Brokers -0.4% vs -0.9%; KBW Banks -0.1% vs -0.3%, Nasdaq Banks -0.4% vs -0.6%. BofA most active as always but -1.1% vs -2% vs +2.8% ($17.37 vs $17.56 vs vs $17.92 which was nearly its high since 2007
Advance/Declines AND Breadth were both negative: A/D: NYSE -1.7x vs +1.4x vs 1:1 vs -3x vs +3.2x, Nasdaq -2.9x vs -1.4x +1.1:1x vs -1.8x vs +3.1x; Breadth -1.9x vs +1.04x vs +1.8x vs -2.4x vs +3.8x vs+3x vs -1.2x vs -5.2x!!! and -3.8x!!! vs -2.1x vs +1.3x vs -1.4x vs +3.3x/+1.7x vs +1.04x vs -3.4x!. New 52 Week Highs were more than halved to a weak 117 vs 269 vs 239 vs 266 vs 269 vs 242 vs 146 vs 164 vs 117 while New Lows moved up to 55 vs 45 vs 49 vs 37 vs 32 vs 36 vs 72 vs 79 vs 63 vs 44 vs 35 vs 20 vs 16 (new low).

Overnight Comments:

Bonds: closed solidly higher for a second straight session but once again only in the long end with 3/4 plus gains on the long bond and the long TIP (10’s 2.73% vs 2.74%, 3/3 high 2.79%; 30’s 3.57% vs 3.61% from 3.73%). Overnight giving back all the gains – the 10’s much more! 10 yr 2.76% -1/4; 30 yr 3.60% -3/4; TIP 1.31% -15/16. Recent ranges: 30 yr high was 3.97% on 12/31; the 10 yr recent high 3.03%! Long TIP recent high was 1.64% The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5/13. Libor update: 0.234% 3 mos, 0.330% 6 mos. – record lows set recently: 3 mos 0.233%!!! 6 mos 0.329%! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.08% since 5/22/13 and is steady at 0.07-0.09%!!! Foreign bond yields mixed with minor changes following Monday’s rally: Germany 1.59% +1; UK 2.73% +4 – recent high 3.03%! France 2.13% +1; Italy 3.41% –; Spain 3.33% -1; Portugal 4.21% +3; Greece 6.59% — still challenging the post-crisis low!!! Recent range now 6.57% to 12.57%. Japan: 0.60% -1.

Gold was pounded falling to $1308.40 – just $6 above the 200 day m/a, but $3 below the 40 day! It came back only slightly to close at $1311.10 -$34.90!!! – now off $79 in SIX sessions! Thursday’s intraday low was $1321.00, lowest since 2/28! A week ago it had a new recent high of $1392.60, highest high since 9/4/13 – that ended in an outside day and nearly a negative key reversal! It has closed above the psychological $1300 every day since 2/12! It has also been above the 200 day since 2/14, which is major support at $1302. Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Psych level: $1300 support, also technical with the 200 day, $1302 and the 50 day $1301. Minor resistance at the 40 day ($1311). Overnight in a very narrow range at $1307.60 -$3.50 with a session low of $1305.90 – could be the end of the rally!!!

Crude had a nothing session and failed an attack on $100,settling little changed again at $99.60 +.14, two days after a session high of $100.82 that ended in an ‘outside’ day – 200 day is $100.36 and rising! A week ago the session low of $97.37 lowest since February 6th which resulted in a negative key reversal!!! It had held ‘par’ since 2/12 – the first time since 12/27/13! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. First RES is the 40 day ($100.14), then the 200 day ($100.36), with SUP at the 50 day $99.02. The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight back above par, $100.51 +.51 only buoyed by Russia of course.

European equity markets STRONG, Asia weaker – juxtapostion! UK +1.2% vs -0.1% vs +0.1% vs -1% vs – vs +0.4%; France +1.5% vs -0.2% vs +0.2% vs -0.8% vs +0.2% vs +1%; Germany +1.6% vs -0.2% vs +0.3% vs -0.7% vs +0.7% vs +0.8%; Japan -0.4% vs +1.8%!!! vs closed vs -1.7%! vs +0.4% vs +0.9%; Hang Seng -0.5% vs +1.9%!!! vs +1.2%! vs -1.8% vs -0.1% vs +0.5%; Korea -0.2% vs +0.6% vs +0.8% vs -0.9% vs -0.1% vs +0.7%; India – vs +1.4% vs +0.1% vs -0.4% vs – vs +0.1%. U.S. equity futures following Europe’s lead: DOW +76 (range 85); SPX +7.90 (9); NDQ +15.50 (17).


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