Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “I have a memory like an elephant. In fact, elephants often consult me.” – Noel Coward
Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Giving up is the ultimate tragedy.” – Robert J. Donovan
Bloomberg Top Stories:
*UniCredit Has Record $20.8 Billion Quarterly Loss on Bad Loans, Writedowns – also did you see Wells, once the biggest subprime lender, but sold them all to Wall Street, is going back into subprime again? Cause for concern? TB thinks so!
*Lloyds Trader Said to Tip Off BP on $500 Million Deal in Currency Markets – why not?
*Stocks in U.S. Fluctuate as Europe Trims Gains; Copper Leads Metals Higher
*Carney Pushes Low-Rate Message as Weale Says Amount of Slack Is Overstated – oh?
*Repo Fire-Sale Proposal Said Within Reach After Fed Sounds Contagion Alarm
*Job Openings in U.S. Rose in January As Hiring Fell on Winter Weather
*Safeway Stuck With Decade-Low Valuation Even as Kroger Bid Looms
*Verizon Offers as Much as $1.5 Billion to Extend Bonds
*Malaysia Says Iranian Using Stolen Passport Had No Link to Terror Groups – asylum
*Feinstein Says She Has Asked for Apology From CIA Over Hacking Congress – !!!
*Boeing Ensdnared in Malaysia Jet Mystery With No Aircraft Wreckage to Study
*N.J. Governor Christie Used Port Authority as Political tool, NYT Reports – !!!
*Detroit Suburbs Devise Ways to Dodge State Takeover as Fiscal Decay Widens
Monday’s Market Summary:
A dull, meaningless ‘down’ session as indicated by the total NYSE Volume of just 3.0B shares…lowest of 2014 and beating Jan. 2’s 3.04B shares. From 12/24 (1.03B) thru yearend to just 2.3B – 12/31 (unusually low). This in contrast to the average of about 3.5B shares! Shares traded ‘on the floor’ plunged from 723M shares (12-month average) to a weak 628M shares. Since 12/20/13 the average has crept up to just 695M shares (23 sessions of more than 700M shares including just five 800M shares and four 900M shae days, the highest being 960M on 2/28 – note that almost all of these occurred on an options expiry, or monthend/quarterend and the burst in volume came in the final 15 minutes! In other words: nobody home…and few that care, other than high freak traders! While Monday was a ‘down day’ the declines were all within a band of flat (Nasdaq Composite) to -0.3% (Dow Utilities?), except the NDQ 100 which was up a weak 0.1%.
Advance/Declines AND Breadth were both negative and have been showing weakness for three days now: A/D NYSE -1.3x/+1.3x/+1.3x, Nasdaq -1.2x/+1.1x/-1.1x; Breadth -1.8x/+1.9x/-1.4x, and -1.2x/-1.2x/-1.2x (note Breadth negative all three days on Nasdaq while A/D’s were 2:1 negative).
New 52 Week Highs fell to 226 vs 382 vs 486 while New Lows rose weakly to 35 vs 20 vs 16 (new low) – still very weak!
Volatility which started on Wednesday at 13.89 has been deat at 14.21 vs 14.11 vs 14.21, slightly elevated and nervous…or at least it makes TB nervous like a temporizing bid in Bridge.
Bonds: have been little changed for three days after rallying from 3/3-3/7 by 19bp’s on 10’s and and 18 on the long bond. The long TIP which had rallied from 1.44% on 2/21 to 1.27% on 3/3 as backed up to 1.38% – the best performer from being the worst as inflation fears have emerged. Overnight, slighty weaker across the board: 10 yr 2.78% -1/16; 30 yr 3.72% –; TIP 1.38% -1/32. Recent ranges: 30 yr high was 3.97% on 12/31; the 10 yr recent high 3.03%! Long TIP recent high was 1.64% The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5/13. Libor update: 0.233% 3 mos, 0.331% 6 mos. – record lows set recently: 0.329% 6 mos! 3 mos 0.233%!!!). NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.08% since 5/22/13 and is steady at 0.07-0.09%!!! Foreign bond yields mostly slightly higher led by Greece – rally should have been suspect, Portugal best: Germany 1.64% +2; UK 2.79% -1 – recent high 3.03%! France 2.22% +2; Italy 3.40% +4; Spain 3.33% +3; Portugal 4.37% -6!!! Greece 6.93% +13 – and well above last Wednesday’s intraday low of 6.57%. Recent range now 6.57% to 12.57%. Japan: 0.62% –.
Gold closed higher in an ‘inside’ session closing at $1341.50 +$3.30. It has closed above the psychological $1300 every day since 2/12! It has also been above the 200 day since 2/14, which is major support at $1305. 3/3’s high was $1355.00 and 2/27’s high close of $1351.80 were highest since 9/23/13 before the selloff began!!! Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Recent high is $1375.40 back on 9/19. Psych levels: $1200 and $1300 support, with support at the 200 day, $1305! Critical support at the 40 day ($1288) and the 50 day ($1275), both rising again. Currently $1347.70 +$6.20.
Crude closed lower after working higher for two days to end the week and has now wiped out all gains since Valentine’s Day’s big up move. It closed at $101.12 -$1.46. Last Thursday’s low was 100.13 – right at the 200 day – too close for comfort but bounced. It has held ‘par’ since 2/12 – the first time since 12/27/13! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. Distant support is at the 40 day m/a ($98.98), and the 50 day m/a ($98.35), both now RISING! FIRST SUPPORT at the 200 day ($100.12). The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. It is currently $100.740 -.38 with a session low of $100.52 – just inches from the 200 day m/a!
Overnight global equity markets slightly higher, ex-France: UK +0.1%. France -0.1%; Germany +0.6% vs -1.3! Japan +0.7% vs -1%; Hang Seng – vs -1.8%!! Korea +0.5% vs -1%; India-0.5% vs +0.1%. U.S. equity futures little changed with another narrow trading range: DOW +13 (range 40); SPX +1.50 (5); NDQ +7.50 (13).
Some random thoughts: