2/12/14…baby it’s cold outside!

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “He would come in and say he changed his mind – which was a gilded figure of speech because he didn’t have any.” – Mark Twain

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Go confidently in the direction of your dreams. Live the life you have imagined.” – Henry David Thoreau

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Stocks Advance as Commodities Gain on Chinese Trade Data; Aussie Rallies – again!

*Carney Renews Pledge on Keeping Rates Low to Fight Slack in U.K. Economy

*Deere Full-Year Forecast Tops Estimates on Construction-Equipment Demand

*Lack of Price Gains in U.S. Complicates Fed’s Mission to Combat Deflation – !!!

*Qatar Wealth Fund’s Al-Sayed Says He’s Ready to Boost Investments in U.K.

*Pound Rallies as Carney Fails to Damp Speculation of Higher Interest Rates – ???

*Emerging-Market Shakeout Puts Reserves Into Focus for Traders

*Billionaire Slim’s Empire Under Seige Propels Axtel Bonds

*London Regulator Ties Doping in Cycling to Bank Abuses With Record Fines

*Billionaire Musk Persuades States to Compete to Help Finance SpaceX Dreams

*Storm Bringing Ice to Atlanta as New York, Northeast Face Deep Snow Cover

*Shrimp as Pork Imperils Mississippi Senator in Tea Party Primary Challenge

*Syrian Children Yearn for Their Lost Classrooms as UN Peace Talks Founder

*Double Mastectomy May Save More Women With Cancer Mutation, Talks Founder

Tuesday’s Market Summary:

Once again a rally for all sectors and indices. Every major index was up from 0.9% to 1.2% – Note the Dow Utilities were even up 1%! Doesn’t that cause you to ask some questions? It sure does to TB…after all, in reality what did Janet Yellen say to propel stocks upward and steal a minor rally from bonds…nothing, it’s about nothing as Seinfeld would say. Oh, TB stop being such a bear and enjoy…

Well for one thing, look at the advance/declines: NYSE stocks blew away Nasdaq stocks at +3.5x vs just +2.3x (breadth +4.7x vs just +2.6x) but look within the indices: Dow +29:1; Transports +9:1; S&P +8:1; NDQ 100 +7.2:1 – ever hear the phrase ‘a rising tide lifts all boats? Market just opened with little followthru so far following those big gains.

NYSE Volume rose to a slightly above average 3.67B shares from a below average 3.3B shares after being well above average for SIX sessions! Real NYSE Volume also rose to a slightly below average 710M shares from a well below average 654M shares – well below even the puny 685M share average since 12/20!

Here is the scoreboard (note 3mo and 12 mo updated thru last Friday):

Index

February

YTD

3 mos.

12 mos.

Returns

Mo. to date

2/10/14

2/7/14

2/7/2014

Dow 30

+1.9%

-3.5%

+0.2%

+12.9%

Transports

-0.5%

-2.0%

+3.2%

+22.5%

Dow Utilities

+1.1%!?!

+4.3%!!!

+0.3%

+6.2%

S&P 500

+2.1%

-1.6%

+1.5%

+18.4%

NASDAQ Comp

+2.1%

+0.4%

+5.3%

+29.2%

NDQ 100

+2.8%

-0.3%

+5.8%

+28.3%

Russell 2k

-0.2%

-3.0%

+1.9%

+19.1%

NYSE Fin

+2.2%

-2.2%

-0.1%

+12.3%

 KBW Banks

+1.7%

-1.1%

+2.8%

+23.2%

 NDQ Banks

+0.1%

-4.1%

-1.0%

+22.7%

Note that Dow Utilities continue to widen their gains, even as we had a substantial rally in stocks yesterday. At least the negatives are being pared back…although Financials remain weak.

Detailed analysis:

Dow 30 +1.2% vs +0.1% vs +1.1% vs +1.2% vs – ; Dow Transports +1.2% vs -1.1%!!! vs +0.8% vs +1.5% vs -0.8%; Russell 2000 +0.9% vs +0.2% vs +1.1% vs +0.9% vs -0.8%; Dow Utilities+1%!!! vs +0.6% vs +0.7% vs +0.8% vs -0.5%; S&P 500 +1.1% vs +0.2% vs +1.3% vs +1.2% vs +1.2%!Nasdaq Composite +1% vs +0.5% vs +1.7%! vs +1.1% vs -0.5%; NDQ 100 +1.1% vs +0.6% vs +1.8%! vs +1.2% vs -0.4%.

*NYSE Volume rose to a slightly above average 3.67B shares vs 3.29B vs 3.74B vs 3.8B vs 3.97B vs 4.04B vs 4.7B vs 4.04B. The 2014 low is 2.76B. The record high (?) is the 4.97B shares of 12/20/13 and Q3 end of quarter while 11/29’s 1.59B is weakest of 2013). REAL NYSE Volume also rose to a slightly below average 710M shares vs 654M vs 763M vs 743M vs 755M vs 837M vs 922M vs 952M (highest since 12/20).  622M was lowest since 1/3/14. It has been above 700M fourteen times (superstitious?) since 12/20! The 12-month low is 272M on 12/24. The average since 12/20 is still just 685M shares. The 12 month is 724M shares. Last year there were just TEN 1B+ share sessions! There have been 45 800M+ shares since 12/31/12: 19 up, 23 down, three mixed.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 33-864. They rose by half to 206 vs 142 vs 132 vs 92 vs 53 (a new recent low!) vs 56 vs 91 vs 135 vs 162. Contrast to 440 and 498 last month. 53 is the recent low, which had been 201 during the rally days! Recent high is a super-strong 890!!! New lows were stable at a weak 35 vs 32! vs 48 vs 72 vs 162 vs 120 vs 216 vs 135 vs 70. Recent high is 353; low 20!!!  

Advance/Declineswere positive: +3.5x vs +1.4x vs +3.4x vs +3x vs -1.4x (recent range -17.5x to +6x) on NYSE and +2.3x vs +1.5x vs +2.4x vs +1.9x vs -2.2x (recent low -6.1x!!! to +3.8x). Breadth was similar: +4.7x! vs -1.1x vs +4.6x! vs +3.8x! vs -1.4x (recent -18.6x!!! to +7.2x!!!) on NYSE and +2.6x vs +2.4x vs +5.5x!!! vs +3.2x vs -2.2x (recent -12.8xto +6.5x). 

NYSE Financials +1.1% vs — vs +1.1% vs +1.4% vs +0.1%. BofA most active: +1% vs -0.7% vs +2.3% vs +1.9% vs +0.5%. Closed $16.88 +.16 The high print was $17.42 on 1/15/14 – highest since 5/10/10!!!Brokers +1% vs +0.3% vs +1.2% vs +1.4% vs -0.9%; KBW Banks +0.9% vs +0.1% vs +0.8% vs +1.7% vs -0.1%.Nasdaq Banks +1.2%! vs +0.1% vs 0.2% vs +0.8% vs -0.4%.

Volatility (S&P VIX) declined again and is now slightly BELOW the m/a’s at 14.51 -.75 – session low 14.08! It ‘gapped down’ on Friday from 17.09-16.31…watch! Contrast to 1/31’s high of 21.48 highest since 6/24/13! Look at the 40/50 day (14.76/14.64 – crossed!) and the 200 day, 14.58. 12/26’s 11.69 was lowest since 3/15/13!!! The recent range is now11.83-21.48!!! It peaked at 22.79 on 12/28/12…the range since 12/31/12 is 11.05 (3/14) to 21.92 (6/24)!

Bonds were up early but closed lower following Yellen’s comments. They remain around mid-Oct. levels, when the storm hit. Weaker overnight: 30 yr 3.69% -1/8 – the high was 3.97% on 12/31; the 10 yr 2.74%! -1/8, recent high 3.03%! Long TIP 1.41% -1/8. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5. The recent high yield: 1.64%! Libor update: 0.236% 3 mos,0.331% 6 mos. – Both at or slightly above NEW record lows 0.234%!!! and 0.331% respectively!). NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.08% since 5/22/13 and is steady at 0.06-0.09%!!! Foreign bond yields mixed, Greece stable at NEW LOWS! Germany 1.69 +1; UK 2.78% +5! – recent high 3.03%!; France 2.28% +1; Italy 3.68% -1; Spain 3.61% +2; Portugal 4.96% -2; Greece 7.23%!!!! -1!!! Yet another NEW low! New range7.23%!!! High 12.57%. Japan: 0.60% –.

Gold closed strong again +$27 in just two sessions and closing near the psychological $1300 and first resistance at the 200 day ($1314). It closed at $1289.80 +$15.10. Last Thursday’s session low was $1237.50, lowest since 1/23! Tuesday’s intraday high was $1294.40, highest since 11/14/13!!! Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!!  Recent high is $1375.40 back on 9/19. Psych levels: $1200 sup; $1300 res, with MAJOR sup at the 40 day ($1239) and the 50 day ($1239) – still locked! The 200 day is $1314 and a possibility and is major res. Overnight it is slightly weaker at $1288.40 -$1.40!

Crude closed little changed on another ‘inside’ session calling into question the recent rally just a day after its first close above $100 since 12/27/13!!! Monday’s session high was $100.55! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. Support is at the 40 day m/a (96.59), and the 50 day m/a ($96.58) – almost locked! SUPPORT also at the 200 day ($99.45) –  slowly rising! 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is strong at $101.14 +$1.20…with a session high of $101.28!

Overnight equity markets:

European equity markets higher for a fourth day, Asia higher but not so much: UK +0.2% vs +0.8% vs +0.1% vs +0.4% vs -0.9%; France +0.7% vs +0.7% vs +0.3% vs +0.7% vs +1%; Germany +1.1%! vs +1.5%!!! vs – vs +0.7% vs -0.9%; Japan +0.6% vs closed for two days vs +2.2%!!! vs -0.2% vs +1.2% vs -4.2%!!! -2%!!; Hang Seng +1.5%! vs +1.8%! vs closed vs +1% vs +0.7% vs -0.6% vs -2.9%; Korea +0.2% vs +0.5% vs – vs +0.8% vs +0.9% vs +0.2% vs -1.7% vs -1.1%; India +0.4% vs +0.1% vs -0.2% vs +0.3% vs +0.3%. U.S. stock opening higher but not much follow-thru: DOW +36; SPX +4.60 ; NDQ +4

 

Some random thoughts:

To those of you who continue to fight scientific knowledge and say ‘there is no global warming’ or it’s too soon to tell, you might want to watch this interview with a man who has put his neck on the line and been arrested in the past for protesting:

Bil-mckibben on Bill Moyers: -to Obama – say no to big oil

Just another ‘tree-hugging hippy’, right? Wrong…but if you listen you will see the myths that have been perpetuated since the oil companies and others with a vested interest convinced Congress not to ratify the Kyoto Accord. One big myth is that even if we do something, China, India and others won’t. Maybe not, but it is the U.S. that is the world’s greatest producer (not a title to be proud of) of carbon emissions…by far! Another myth spun by the oil companies who still want that Keystone Pipeline, to carry even more oil to the ‘roach motel’ in Oklahoma.

Only a fool would deny global warming…or an extreme right-wing, science doesn’t matter, protagonist. California is having the worst drought in 500 years, the polar ice cap is melting at an incredible rate…affecting Iceland for one, and raising tides as well as creating a wonderful incubator for hurricanes and tornadoes. Who gives a damn? Hopefully you do…or do you want to see us in another tragic Dust Bowl? Oh, you forgot about that…not many still alive who remember it…so watch a documentary on it and learn. We continue to find ways to destroy America from within…so…what…???

Have a great day! …and think for yourself…

TB 

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