2/3/14…some times you got it…sometimes…

Yogi saiz: “You’ve got to be very careful if you don’t know where you’re going, because you might not get there.” – Yogi Berra…from a chapter heading in Alan Blinder’s book.

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “It is said that Abraham Lincoln once sized up the case of a perspective client as follows: “You have a pretty good case, technically, but in terms of justice and equity, it’s got problems. So you’ll have to look for another lawyer to handle the case, because the whole time I was up there talking to the jury, I’d be thinking, ‘Lincoln, you’re a liar!’ and I just might forget myself and say it out loud.” – no lawyer or Congressman today would have such a problem! TB

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “It requires a very unusual mind to make an analysis of the obvious.” – Alfred North Whitehead

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Stocks Drop With Copper as Lira, Pound Weaken; Nikkei 225 in Correction – ?

*Manufacturing in U.K. Slows in 10th Month of Expansion; Pound Extends Drop

*Carney Breaks From Draghi-Yellen Inaction in Market Bets on Rate Increase

*Libor Probe Yields First Civil Cases Against Individuals With Two Targeted

*Gundlach Shows Why Betting Against Treasuries Little More Than a Fool’s Game

*Denmark’s $112 Billion Pension Fund Gird for Wave of Global Market Shocks

*Gordhan Says Rand Undervalued While Bemoaning Feds’ Emerging-Market Effect

*Hedge Funds Raise Bets on Gold Rally as Copper Bulls Retreat

*Bill Gates Still Seen Holding Product Reins as Ends to Microsoft Era Looms

*Argentina Bust Lures Global Investors Led by Bass in 200 Years of Defaults

*Snow Snarls New York Commute as More Than 800 Flights Across U.S. Grounded

*Ukrainian Opposition Gets a Boost as Focus Shifts to Western Aid Package

*Christie Republican Support Firm Amid Fresh Allegations in Bridge Scandal

*Nelson Mandela Estate Provisionally Valued at $4.1 Million, Executors Say

This week’s economic calendar is packed with important indicators. The highlight of the week will be the January ISM Manufacturing Survey (Monday), January ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey (Wednesday) and January Employment Situation report (Friday). We will also get December Construction Spending and January Motor Vehicle Sales (Monday), December Factory Orders (Tuesday), January ADP Employment (Wednesday), December International Trade, Q4 Productivity & Cost Preliminary (Thursday), and December Consumer Credit (Friday). Courtesy of Economic Advisory Service

Friday’s Market Summary:

Guess what happened? Another BIG volume day…4.04B shares of NYSE listed stocks…and…NYSE trades surged to 952M shares…highest since 12/20/13!!! Isn’t that great??? …but wait, there’s more…it was a DOWN day, a BIG down month, and took a big slash at the longer returns…is there more to come? The volume says yes.

Compare to Thursday: Dow -0.9% vs +0.7% vs -1.2%; NDQ 100 -0.5% vs +1.9% vs -1.2%; Composite -0.7% vs +1.8% vs -1.1%; Dow Transports -1.2% vs -0.2% vs +1.6%; Russell 2000 -0.3% vs +1.5% vs -1.2%, and the S&P 500 -0.7% vs +1.1% vs -1%. DOW UTILITIES +0.8% vs +1.6%!!! vs -0.2%. NYSE Financials -0.7% vs +1.1% vs -1.4%.   Drilling down: NYSE Brokers -1.4% vs +1.1% vs -1.2%;  KBW Banks -1.5% vs +1.1% vs -1.3%;  Nasdaq Banks -1.3% vs +1.1% vs -1.5%. Financials look disturbing!

Speaking of disturbing, look at these results! Especially, the 12 months compared to just a month ago…meanwhile next month we lose November when markets bottomed and the next when we lob off the last quarter of 2012 which was a loser for stocks:

 

Index

January ’14

3 mos

12 mos

12 mos

Returns

1/31/2014

1/31/2014

1/31/2014

 

12/31/2013

Dow 30

-5.3%

0.5%

12.1%

29.5%

Transports

-1.5%

3.4%

24.5%

 

41.3%

Dow Utilities

3.2%

0.3%

6.7%

 

12.7%

S&P 500

-3.6%

1.2%

17.8%

 

32.3%

Composite

-1.7%

4.6%

29.1%

 

40.1%

NDQ 100

-2.0%

4.2%

27.4%

 

36.9%

Russell 2k

-2.8%

3.2%

24.1%

 

38.8%

NYSE Fin

-4.3%

-1.3%

11.3%

 

27.3%

 KBW Banks

-2.8%

4.7%

23.0%

 

n/a

 NDQ Banks

-3.2%

3.3%

24.6%

 

n/a

The Dow remains trapped mid-way between the 200 day m/a (support) at 15460, and the 50/40 day (now resistance) 16180/16148. Note Wednesday’s low print of 15709 was just FIVE points above the 12/12/13 low, thus negating the entire rally! The next support level is the 11/6/13 low of 15522 which if it fails to hold leads directly to the 200 day (16148!)

New 52 week highs declined to 135 vs 162 vs 76 where it sat for three days, while new lows DOUBLED to 135 vs 70 vs 135! vs 71 vs 148. Volatility (VIX) was stable but compare the daily changes: 17.29 -.06 vs 17.34 vs 15.80 vs 17.42 vs 18.14 vs 13.86.

Stay put until Groundhog Day…did TB actually say that last week? Tomorrow that day is here…so cool your heels even longer!

Advance/Declines and Breadth were negative giving a net negative for the week! Volatility (VIX) rose sharply to 18.41 +1.12 with a range of 17.27-18.99! This is high and compares to: 17.29 vs 17.34 vs 15.80 vs 17.42.  The low wasn’t even that low!

Dow 30 -0.9% vs +0.7% vs -1.2%! vs +0.6% vs -0.3% vs -2%!!! vs -1.1%!Dow Transports -0.2% vs +1.6%! vs -1.2% vs +1.1% vs -0.8% vs -4.1%!!!Russell 2000 -0.3% vs +1.5%! vs -1.3% vs +1.2% vs -1.4%! vs -2.4%!!!; Dow Utilities +0.8% vs +1.6%!!! vs -0.2% vs +0.5% vs +0.2% vs -1%; S&P 500 -0.7% vs +1.1% vs -1% vs +0.6% vs -0.5% vs -2.1% vs -0.9%; Nasdaq Composite -0.7% vs +1.8%! vs -1.1% vs +0.4% vs -1.1% vs -2.2%! NDQ 100 -0.5% vs +1.9% vs -1.1% vs -0.1% vs -0.9%! vs -2%!!!

*NYSE Volume surged on weakness to 4.04B shares!!! vs 3.5B vs 3.95B vs 3.43B vs 3.99B vs 4.64B. The 2014 low is 2.76B. The record high (?) is the 4.97B shares of 12/20/13 and Q3 end of quarter while 11/29’s 1.59B is weakest of 2013). REAL NYSE Volume also surged to 952M shares!!! (highest since 12/20) vs 655M vs 736M vs 622M (lowest since 1/3/14) vs 780M vs 919M. It has now been above 700M just ten times since 12/20! The 12-month low is 272M on 12/24. The average since 12/20 is just 663M shares. The 12 month is 722M shares. Last year there were just TEN 1B+ share sessions! There have now been 42 800M+ shares since 12/31/12: 18 up, 22 down, three mixed.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 33-864. They slipped to 135 vs 162 vs 76 vs 75 vs 74 vs 81 vs 211 vs 440 vs 498. 74 is the recent low eclipsing 201! Recent high is a super-strong 890!!! New lows doubled to 135 vs 70 vs 135 vs 71 vs 148 vs 110 vs 62 vs 46 vs 37. Recent high is 353; low 20!!!  

Advance/Declineswere negative: -1.7x vs +3.2x vs -3.3x! vs +3x vs -2.8x vs -6.3x! (recent range -17.5x to +6x) on NYSE and -2.3x vs +3x vs-3.2x! vs +2x vs -3.4x vs -4.6x!!!(recent low -4.6x!!! to +3.8x). Breadth was similar: -2.5x vs +3.2x vs -3.5x! vs +5.3x!!! vs -2.5x vs -13x!!! vs -3.2x(recent -18.6x!!! to +7.2x!!!) on NYSE and -1.5x vs +4.9x!!! vs -2.6x vs +2.2x vs -3.9x vs -4.6x!!! (recent -12.8xto +6.5x). 

NYSE Financials -0.7% vs +1.1% vs -1.2% vs +1.2% vs -0.9% vs -2.5%! vs -1.4%!!! BofA most active per usual: -1.1% vs +1.5% vs -0.2%? vs +2.6% vs -0.9% vs -2.4% vs -1.7%. Closed $16.75 -.18. The high print was $17.42 on 1/15/14 – highest since 5/10/10!!! C off most actives but -1% vs +0.5% vs -2.9%! Brokers -1.4% vs +1.1% vs +1.4% vs -2.1% vs -2.4% vs -1.4%; KBW Banks -1.3% vs +1.1% vs -1.3% vs +0.9% vs -0.7% vs -2.6% vs -1.6%. Nasdaq Banks -1.3% vs +1.1% vs -1.5%! vs +0.1% vs -1.1%! vs -1.5%! vs -1.2%!  Do you think you noticed a trend here? Well, hell-o!

Volatility (S&P VIX) rose and had a range of 17.27-18.99 and closed at 18.41 +1.12 compared to 17.29 vs 17.34 vs 15.80 vs 17.42. It remains well above the 40/50 day (14.21/14.02) and the 200 day. 14.47. 12/26’s 11.69 was lowest since 3/15/13!!! The recent range is 11.83-21.01!!! It peaked at 22.79 on 12/28/12…the range since 12/31/12 is 11.05 (3/14) to 21.92 (6/24)!

Bonds closed strong and below mid-Oct. when the storm hit! Weaker overnight: 30 yr 3.63% -1/2 – the high was 3.97% on 12/31; the 10 yr 2.67% -1/4, recent high 3.03%! Long TIP 1.33% -1/2. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5. The recent high yield: 1.64%! Libor update: 0.236% 3 mos,0.334% 6 mos. BOTH just above NEW record lows 0.234%!!! and 0.332% respectively!). NOTE that the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.08% since 5/22/13 and is currently 0.06%!!! Foreign bond yields mixeed, Greece plunging: Germany 1.67 +1; UK 2.75% +5 – recent high 3.03%!; France 2.24% +1; Italy 3.74% -2; Spain 3.70% -3; Portugal 4.89% -8; Greece 8.21% -20!!!. Recent range 7.51%-12.57%. Japan: 0.60% -1. Yen oscillating between 101.69 (new high) and 102.14, now 101.99. Recent range 101.69-105.44-weakest since 10/1/08!!!

Gold was boring closing at $1239.80 -$2.70. Thursday’s session low was $1237.50, lowest since 1/23! Monday’s intraday high was $1280.10, highest since 11/18!!! Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!!  Recent high is $1375.40 back on 9/19. Psych levels: $1200 sup; $1300 res, with major sup at the 40 day ($1235) and the 50 day ($1237). The 200 day is $1320 and major res. Overnight it is higher at $1246.20 +$6.40.

Crude closed lower at $97.49 -.74. Thursday’s intraday high was $98.59 – highest since 1/2/14! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! Note 12/27 was first time above $100 since 10/21! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. It remains above the 40/50 day m/a’s which are major sup: 50 day m/a ($95.95), 40 day (96.45), crossed and rising!!! RES at the 200 day ($99.16!!!) –  major resistance! 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is $97.67 +.18.

Overnight markets:

Global equity markets lower, especially Asia: UK -0.2% vs -1.5%!!! vs -0.4% vs +0.2% vs +0.2% vs -1.3%! vs-0.9%; France -0.1% vs -1.6%!!! vs -0.4% vs -0.1% vs +0.4% vs +0.2% vs -1.5%; Germany -0.1% vs -2%!!! vs -0.4% vs +0.2% vs +0.1% vs – vs -1.2%; Japan -2%!!! vs -0.6% vs -2.5% vs +2.7% vs -5.1%!!! vs -2.5% vs -1.9%; Hang Seng still closed vs -0.5% vs +0.8% vs -0.1% vs -2.1%!!! vs -1.3% vs -1.5%; Korea -1.1% vs closed for 2 days vs +1.3%! vs +0.3% vs -1.6%! vs -0.4% vs -1.2%!India -1.5%! vs +0.2% vs -0.7% vs -0.2% vs -0.1% vs -2%!!! vs -1.1%! U.S. stock futures marginally higher: DOW +30; SPX +3.10; NDQ +6. Nothing to see here!

 

 

Some random thoughts:

Too bad the Denver Bronco’s couldn’t make it to the game and had to let some other guys wear their uniforms. It had looked so promising to be a great game, which was destroyed on the first set of downs when the Bronco’s center gave a high snap, mis-timed, producing a safety right off the bat. From then on, they never regained their composure…still, Manning looked confident…until the fourth quarter…although that Seahawks kickoff return to start the second half cost him his game face. Pity…what might have been. Hawks Richard ‘the mouth’ Sherman played well but got his ‘just desserts’ leaving the game in the fourth quarter with an ankle sprain…awww.

Enough!

Could write about a lot of things today but just not in the mood. Reminds me of Sammy Davis Jr. in a show at Harrah’s Tahoe. He sang two songs then stopped. Announced to the audience, “some time you got it…some times you don’t…and tonight I don’t.” Were people upset? Sort of…until he added that he was picking up the entire tab. Now THAT is class! One problem…the checks hadn’t been totaled and a lot of champagne was sold after his announcement. Still, don’t think he minded…much better than to tarnish your reputation as a great performer.

Have a great day…and week!

TB 

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: