Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “A football fan is a guy who’ll yell at the quarterback for not spotting an open receiver forty-five yards away, then head for the parking lot and not be able to find his car.” – anonymous
Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “A bird doesn’t sing because it has an answer, it sings because it has a song.” – Maya Angelou…sounds kind of ‘Zen-ish’? TB
Bloomberg Top Stories:
*German Investor Confidence Unexpectedly Drops for First Time in 6 Months – oops!
*Stocks in Europe Climb to Six-Year High as Asian Shares Rise: Dollar Gains – ???
*Altman Leads Hedge-Fund Managers Betting Stocks Will Rally for 6th Year –so he says!
*UBS Says Focus on Leverage Rather Than Risk Threatens Financial Stability – It do!
*Verizon Profit Beats Estimates as Mobile-Phone Users Increase Expenditure
*London Gold Benchmark Fix Said to Face Overhaul After One Hundred Years – hmmm
*Travelers Beats Estimates as Profit Triples on Lower Catastrophe Expenses
*Johnson & Johnson Full-Year Outlook Misses Estimates as Earnings Surprise – ?
*Moody’s Follows the Money on Ireland Months After Investors – always too slow!
*JPMorgan Joins Credit Suisse Wooing Startups in Hunt for IPO Bounty – bribe ‘em!
*Rand Most Oversold in 11 Years Drives Out Bearish Bests; Market Reversal – hmmm
*Carlos Slim Doubles His Money With Loan to New York Times Proving Bonanza – !
*Dimon Avoids Davos Limelight as Record Fines Impede U.S.-Europe Bank Trust – in other words, global class investors are harder to fool than Congress, U.S. investors!!!
*Snow Storm Closes Washington Offices as East Coast Flights Face Disruption – does this mean that productivity there may actually rise???
*Thailand Places Bangkok Under State of Emergency to Curb Violent Protests – !!!
*Former Vatican Official Accused of Moving Cash in Fake Offshore Donations – !!!!!
*Suicide Bomber Kills Five People in Hezbollah’s Southern Beirut Stronghold – !!!
This week’s economic calendar is fairly light. We will get December Existing Home Sales and December Leading Indicators (Thursday). Courtesy of Economic Advisory Service
Friday’s Market Summary:
Get your programs here…you can’t tell the players without a program…get your programs here…
How many of you other old geezers can remember hearing that plaintive cry at ball games? Well, that is the way the market has become…it’s up, it’s down, it’s…
Don’t look down…but people are starting to and they are nervous…some on earnings reports…Best Buy missed…big time…and plunged 28.6%…and was a most active. TB never believed they could achieve a turnaround…a big box retailer that is restructuring it’s model…under the founder??? Then there were the banks…as TB said…while BoA dropped just 0.4%, JPM was off 1.9%; GS -2%, and Citi -4.4%!!! All bad news? No, two that TB likes, but wouldn’t buy at these levels are WFC and USB both about unchanged…think about it! Neither of these are involved in derivatives or making markets!
AAPL/MSFT watch: On Friday, once again Apple was more than half the change in the NDQ 100…this time -11 of -20! MSFT lost 3.8 index points: they combined for more than two-thirds the loss and on Wednesday (Thursday they were mixed and index barely budged) , half the gain on the index (16 of 29)!!! So think how much they subtracted and added to the S&P? Again, this is why TB provides you with FIVE days of returns instead of focusing day to day. Think for yourself!…or else!
Best performers Friday? Just one gainer: THE DOW!!! IT rose 0.3%, 42 points! The bad news??? Breadth was MINUS 2.3:1: Vis +67 index points; AXP +20.5! HELLO!!! Look inside the damned numbers! Dow Utilities were FLAT, but that was enough to take Numero Uno! Worst performer? That’s easy: NDQ 100 -0.6%; Composite -0.5%; Russell 2000/Dow/S&P 500/Dow Transports -0.4%.…NYSE Financials -0.2%.
NYSE Volume still oscillating and is back to 3.65B shares vs 3.46B shares (average) vs 3.75B (highest since 12/20) vs 3.33B 3.57B vs 3.33B vs 3.56B vs 3.63B shares. Real NYSE Volume SURGED to 893M shares, first time over 800M since 12/20! Remember it was a DOWN DAY!!! Decidedly so! This from a below average 654M vs 718M vs 650M vs 734M vs 669M vs 697M vs 759M.
The Nasdaq 100 LOST 20 points (AAPL -11l, MSFT -3.8) vs +1.5 points vs +29 (more than half coming from AAPL and MSFT) vs +68 points!!! vs -52 points!!! Breadth was negative –1.5:1 vs -1.4:1 vs +7:3 vs +9:1 vs -7:1! Just TWO members vs three, gained more than one index point!!! While FIVE lost more than a point! APPL -11 vs -2.5 vs +8.8!!! vs +8.5!!! vs +1.3 vs -2.8 vs -5.6!!! vs +2.7 vs -3 vs +4.4 vs -9.7!!!; MSFT -3.8! vs +1 vs +7.3!!! vs +5.9! vs -7.8!!! vs +3.8 vs -1.7 vs -4.8!!!; INTC -3; FB -1.5; GOOG -1.4 vs +1.9; AMZN +1.6; ILMN? +1.2
Dow 30 UP 0.3% (see above!) vs -0.4% vs +0.7% vs +0.7% vs -1.1%!; Dow Transports -0.4% vs -0.6% vs +0.6% vs +1.3% vs -1.4% vs +1.2% vs +1%; Russell 2000 -0.4% vs +0.2% vs +0.7% vs +1.3% vs -1.4%; Dow Utilities flat vs +0.7% vs -0.1% vs +0.1% vs -0.9% vs +1.3%!?! S&P 500 -0.4% vs -0.1% vs +0.5% vs +1.1% vs -1.3%; Nasdaq Composite -0.5% vs +0.1% vs +0.8% vs +1.7%!!! vs -1.5%!; NDQ 100 -0.6% vs – vs +0.8% vs +1.9%!!! vs -1.5%!
*NYSE Volume reverted again to 3.65B shares vs 3.46B vs 3.75B vs 3.33B vs 3.57B vs 3.33B vs 3.56M vs 3.63B vs 3.48B vs 3.23B vs 2.76B. The record high (?) is the 4.97B shares of 12/20/13 and Q3 end of quarter while 11/29’s 1.59B is weakest of 2013). REAL NYSE Volume JUMPED to 893M shares –highest and first time above 800M from a below average 654M shares vs 700M vs 718M vs 650M Only above 700M four times since 12/20! The 12-month low is 272M on 12/24. The average since 12/20 is up to a still weak 615M shares with a new high of 893M! The 12 month is 721M shares. Last year there were just TEN 1B+ share sessions! There have now been 40 800M+ shares since 12/31/12: 18 up, 20 down, three mixed.
*New 52 week highs have ranged from 33-864. They slipped again to 373 vs 419 vs 515 vs 281 vs 351 vs 411 vs 435 vs 355 vs 316 vs 271 vs 217 vs 201! Recent high is a super-strong 890!!! New lows were stable at 40 vs 42 vs 37 vs 36 vs 50 vs 30 vs 44 vs 30 vs 20 vs 30 vs 23 vs 43 vs 78 vs 72 vs 76 vs 60 vs 44 vs 68 vs 81 vs 127 vs 131. Recent high is 353; low 20!!!
Advance/Declines were negative: -1.4x vs +1.4x vs +1.9x vs +2.4x vs -2.5x vs +2.5x (recent range -17.5x to +6x) on NYSE and -1.4x vs +1.0x vs +1.9x vs +3x! vs -2.6x vs +1.4x (recent -4x!!! to +3.8x). Breadth was more so: -1.9x vs -1.2x vs +2.3x vs +3.8x! vs -4.3x!!! (recent -18.6x!!! to +7.2x!!!) on NYSE and -1.7x vs -1.2x vs +2.6x vs +4.1x!!! vs -3.1x! (recent -12.8x to +6.5x).
NYSE Financials -0.2% vs -0.6% vs +1% vs +0.7% vs -1%!. BofA most active – per usual -0.5% vs -0.4% vs +2.3%!!! vs +2%! vs -2%! and closed at $17.00 -.08 – gapped up from $16.77-$17.15 last Wednesday with a high print of high $17.42 – highest since 5/10/10!!! Brokers -0.5% vs – vs +1% vs +1.1% vs -1.2%! KBW Banks -0.3% vs -0.9% vs +1.4%!!! vs +0.5% vs -1.3%!!!; Nasdaq Banks +0.3% vs -0.8% vs +0.5% vs +0.5% vs -0.9% vs -0.2% vs +0.4%.
Volatility (S&P VIX) rose but only slightly after falling for two days to 11.81, before closing Wednesday at 12.28 but still near its lowest close and low since 8/5/13! From 13.31 with a high of 13.65 to 12.29 -.99 with a low of 11.96! It closed at 12.59 +.06 and remains well below the 40/50 day (13.61/13.53) while the 200 day is 14.40. 12/26’s 11.69 was lowest since 3/15/13!!! Recent high on 1/2 was 16.67! The recent range is 11.83-21.01!!! It peaked at 22.79 on 12/28/12…ytd the range is 11.05 (3/14) to 21.92 (6/24)!
Bonds posted more gains on stocks weakness but remain mercurial since last Fridays WEAK payrolls. Weaker overnight and recovered about ½ earlier losses: 30 yr 3.75 -1/8 – high 3.97% on 12/31; the 10 yr 2.84% -3/16, recent high 3.03%! Long TIP 1.40 -1/32. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5. The recent high yield: 1.64%! Libor update: 0.236% 3 mos,0.334%!!! 6 mos. BOTH at/near NEW record lows 0.236%!!! and 0.334% respectively!). Foreign bond yields slighltly higher, ex-Greece and Portugal: Germany 1.74% +1; UK 2.84% +1 – recent high 3.03%!; France 2.40% +1; Italy 3.82% +3; Spain 3.72% +4; Portugal 4.98% -9!!!; Greece 7.73% -6. Recent range 7.51%-12.57%. Japan: 0.68% +2. Yen slightly weaker at 104.64, recent range 103.59-105.44 last week, low since 10/1/08!!!
Gold rose closing at $1251.90, still below the 1/16 recent high of $1258.00, highest since 12/11/13. Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Recent high is $1375.40 back on 9/19. Psych levels: $1200 sup; $1300 res, with major sup at the 40 day ($1232!) and now the 50 day ($1243!). The 200 day is $1331. Overnight it has given back Friday’s gains and more: $1237.70 -$14.20! Back below 50 day too!
Crude closed slightly higher at $94.37 +.41. The high was $94.94, highest since 1/3/14. Last Thursday it fell to the lowest print since 5/2/13: $91.24! Note 12/27 was first time above $100 since 10/21! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. It is still below the three key m/a’s which are all major res: 50 day m/a ($95.43!!!), 40 day (95.80!), crossed!!! and the 200 day ($98.92!!!) – all major resistance! 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight, slightly higher at $94.72 +.35 – at high!
Global equity markets higher: UK +0.2% vs – vs +0.1% vs +0.7% vs +0.1%; France +0.4% vs – vs -0.1% vs +0.7% vs -0.2%; Germany +0.6%(?) vs +0.1% vs -0.1% vs +1.4%!!! vs -0.3%; Japan +1% vs -0.1% vs -0.4% vs +2.5%! vs -3.1%!!! Hang Seng +0.5% vs +0.6% vs 0.4% vs +0.5% vs -0.4%; Korea +0.5% vs -0.7% vs +0.2% vs +0.4% vs -0.2%; India +0.2% vs -1%! vs -0.1% vs +1.2%! vs -0.5% vs +1.8%!!!. U.S. stock futures higher: DOW +70 (101!!!); SPX -7 (11); NDQ +18 (30)
Some random thoughts:
“It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.” – Henry Ford…more Ford quotes which are quite timely:
“One needs to be successful in the conventional way to learn just how far away from success it may be.”
” I do not believe that material accumulation is the whole of success, and on the other hand I do not believe that true success ever excludes a sufficient possession of wealth-but wealth as a means, not as an end.”
“The world is held together by the mass of honest folk who do their daily tasks, tend their own spot in the world, and have faith that at last the Right will come fully into its own.”
Why can’t more people think that way? Did you see the latest survey that show by the British Oxfam foundation that shows that the wealthiest 1% own half of the world’s wealth??? Just 85 people own 46%!!! – Putin might be the wealthiest man in the world I heard…now if they could only find a way to spend rather than hoard it!
Moving right along…TB records Bill Moyers and while clearing his disc ran across two of them he missed…the one related to the above story is from March 2013:
Wish I had listened to them the other one in January 2013 shows what hypocrites Sens. McConnell, Baucus and Hatch are (note Baucus is a Dem!). TB didn’t remember this but in 2012, Amgen received the highest fine ever imposed on a drug company for selling drugs which had not received FDA approval. Apparently, this upset the corrupt three listed above who had received contributions from the company. So, in closed door session with only a few senators present they slipped in a provision into the temporary budget that gave Amgen a huge tax subsidy…in other words, compensating them for a significant portion of their loss! In December 2012, they pled guilty (unlike Jamie Dimon’s JPMorganChase), and were fined $762 million!!! How much was their subsidy? About a $500 million benefit!
Shame? None whatsoever…in fact they donated more to those illustrious holier-than-though senators…who scream about cutting government costs which are killing hard working, honest Americans!
Oh, but it gets worse…a movement was started to repeal the portion of the bill pertaining to Amgen…guess what… even those austerity preaching teabaggers wouldn’t join into the motion…it never came to the floor and died. If this doesn’t piss you off, you are no American! You are one of them! billmoyers.com-thoughts-of-corporate-foul-play
Google Congress Amgen and you will find NOTHING after January 2013 – buried it!
Don’t know about you but TB is totally disgusted with the scum running our government – BOTH parties…either corrupted or too timid to do anything about it! Including Obama!
At least it’s a short week!