1/17/14…what’s in your wallet…and on your mind?

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “I’m from a very liberal Jewish family. My parents believe in the Ten Commandments, but they believe they can pick five.” – Bill Scheft

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Success isn’t permanent, and failure isn’t fatal.” – Mike Ditka…ask Pete Rose…or A-Rod!

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Michigan Consumer Confidence DECREASED to 80.4 from 82.5 – going backwards?

*Industrial Production in U.S. Rose for Fifth Month as Vanguard of Recovery – ?

*Morgan Stanley Profit Beats Forecasts on Equity Trading, Wealth Management

*Morgan Stanley Reduces Investment Bank Pay to 42% of Unit Rev. From 45% – CEO?

*UPS Projects Fourth-Quarter Earnings of $1.25 a Share, Less than Estimates–Amazon?

*Moore Capital Ex-Trader Julian Rifat Faces Eight Insider Trading Charges – picky?

*Dollar Rises to Almost a Four-Month High on Housing’s Best Year Since 2007

*Farmers Worldwide Suffering Extreme Wealther Wreaking Havoc on Food Supply – bet ADM is doing fine with its big fat government subsidies, though…and Cargill!

*NSA Said to Halt collection of Mass Phone Records Under Obama Privacy Plan – so? They have enough to sift through for decades

*Obamacare Small-Business Health Program Stalls ass Employers Weigh Prospect

*U.S. Pressures Syrian Rebels to Join Peace Talks as Russia Urges Action

*African Virus Outbreak in Caribbean Vacation Spots Prompts Health Warnings – !!!    

Thursday’s Market Summary:

Get your programs here…you can’t tell the players without a program…get your programs here…

How many of you other old geezers can remember hearing that plaintive cry at ball games? Well, that is the way the market has become…it’s up, it’s down, it’s…

Don’t look down…but people are starting to and they are nervous…some on earnings reports…Best Buy missed…big time…and plunged 28.6%…and was a most active. TB never believed they could achieve a turnaround…a big box retailer that is restructuring it’s model…under the founder??? Then there were the banks…as TB said…while BoA dropped just 0.4%, JPM was off 1.9%; GS -2%, and Citi -4.4%!!! All bad news? No, two that TB likes, but wouldn’t buy at these levels are WFC and USB both about unchanged…think about it! Neither of these are involved in derivatives or making markets!

More on AAPL/MSFT. From yesterday: they combined for more than HALF the gain on the NDQ 100…16 of 29 index points! So think how much they added to the S&P? More on this later…perhaps you will see why TB provides you with FIVE days of returns instead of focusing day to day. Shut your ears to FOX and CNBC and think for yourself!

Best performers yesterday? Not the two stocks above, one up slightly (MSFT), one down and more so (AAPL), no, the best index was…Dow Utilities +0.7%!!! – up 5 of last 7 days…the only gainer besides the Russell 2k +0.2%. Worst was Dow Transports -0.6% (as were NYSE Financials!). Then the Dow -0.4%; S&P -0.1%, the two Nasdaq’s about even.

NYSE Volume continues to yo-yo and is back to 3.46B shares (average) vs 3.75B (highest since 12/20) vs 3.33B 3.57B vs 3.33B vs 3.56B vs 3.63B shares. Real NYSE Volume also reverted and to a below average 654M shares vs 718M vs 650M vs 734M vs 669M vs 697M vs 759M –  highest and first time above 700M since 12/20!  

The Nasdaq 100 gained just 1.5 points vs +29 (more than half coming from AAPL and MSFT) vs +68 points!!! vs -52 points!!! vs +12.5 vs -15 vs +10 vs +31 vs -12 vs -25 vs -28. Breadth was modestly negative -1.4:1 vs +7:3 vs +9:1 vs -7:1!  Just THREE members gained more than one index point!!! While two lost a point! GILD +3.6!!!; GOOG +1.9; MSFT +1 vs +7.3!!! vs +5.9! vs -7.8!!! vs +3.8 vs -1.7 vs -4.8!!!; APPL -2.5 vs +8.8!!! vs +8.5!!! vs +1.3 vs -2.8 vs -5.6!!! vs +2.7 vs -3 vs +4.4 vs -9.7!!!;   CMCSCA -1. That…is…it!!!

Dow 30 -0.4% vs +0.7% vs +0.7% vs -1.1%! vs +0.1%; Dow Transports -0.6% vs +0.6% vs +1.3% vs -1.4% vs +1.2% vs +1%; Russell 2000 +0.2% vs +0.7% vs +1.3% vs -1.4% vs +0.5%; Dow Utilities +0.7% vs -0.1% vs +0.1% vs -0.9% vs +1.3%!?! vs +0.7%; S&P 500 -0.1% vs +0.5% vs +1.1% vs -1.3% vs +0.2%; Nasdaq Composite +0.1% vs +0.8% vs +1.7%!!! vs -1.5%! vs +0.4%; NDQ 100 – vs +0.8% vs +1.9%!!! vs -1.5%! vs +0.4%.

*NYSE Volume reverted again to 3.46B shares vs 3.75B vs 3.33B shares vs 3.57B vs 3.33B vs 3.56M vs 3.63B vs 3.48B vs 3.23B vs 2.76B. The record high (?) is the 4.97B shares of 12/20/13 and Q3 end of quarter while 11/29’s 1.59B is weakest of 2013). REAL NYSE Volume also fell to a below average 654M shares vs 700M vs 718M shares vs 650M vs 734M shares!!! vs 669M vs 697M vs 759M!!! Only above 700M three times since 12/20! The 12-month low is 272M on 12/24. The average since 12/20 is up to a still weak 599M shares with a high of 759M! The 12 month is 720M shares. Last year there were just TEN 1B+ share sessions! There were 39 800M+ shares in 2013: 18 up, 19 down, three mixed.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 33-864. They slipped to 419 vs 515 vs 281 vs 351 vs 411 vs 435 vs 355 vs 316 vs 271 vs 217 vs 201! Recent high is a super-strong 890!!! New lows were stable at 42 vs 37 vs 36 vs 50 vs 30 vs 44 vs 30 vs 20 vs 30 vs 23 vs 43 vs 78 vs 72 vs 76 vs  60 vs 44 vs 68 vs 81 vs 127 vs 131. Recent high is 353; low 20!!!  

Advance/Declines were positive: +1.4x vs +1.9x vs +2.4x vs -2.5x vs +2.5x (recent range -17.5x to +6x) on NYSE and +1.0x vs +1.9x vs +3x! vs -2.6x vs +1.4x (recent -4x!!! to +3.8x). Breadth however was negative: -1.2x vs +2.3x vs +3.8x! vs -4.3x!!! vs +2x (recent -18.6x!!! to +7.2x!!!) on NYSE and -1.2x vs +2.6x vs +4.1x!!! vs -3.1x! (recent -12.8x to +6.5x).  

NYSE Financials -0.6% vs +1% vs +0.7% vs -1%! vs +0.1%. BofA most active – per usual -0.4% vs +2.3%!!! vs +2%! vs -2%! vs -0.4% vs +1.5%!?!, and closed at $17.08 -.07  gapped up from $16.77-$17.15 on Wednesday with a high print of  high $17.42 – highest since 5/10/10!!! Brokers – vs +1% vs +1.1% vs -1.2%! vs -0.1%; KBW Banks -0.9% vs  +1.4%!!! vs +0.5% vs -1.3%!!! vs -0.4% vs +0.7%; Nasdaq Banks -0.8% vs +0.5% vs +0.5% vs -0.9% vs -0.2% vs +0.4%.

Volatility (S&P VIX) rose after falling for two days to 11.81, before closing Wednesday at 12.28 but still near its lowest close and low since 8/5/13! From 13.31 with a high of 13.65 to 12.29 -.99 with a low of 11.96! It closed at 12.53 +.25 and remains well below the 40/50 day (13.61/13.53) while the 200 day is 14.40. 12/26’s 11.69 was lowest since 3/15/13!!! Recent high on 1/2 was 16.67! The recent range is 11.83-21.01!!! It peaked at 22.79 on 12/28/12…ytd the range is 11.05 (3/14) to 21.92 (6/24)!

Bonds posted solid gains on stocks weakness and have also been mercurial since last Fridays WEAK payrolls which took them to lowest yields since 11/26/13, 10‘s 2.83% and the 30 yr 3.77%. Modestly higher overnight: 30 yr 3.77 +1/8 – high 3.97% on 12/31; the 10 yr 2.83% +1/8, recent high 3.03%! Long TIP 1.41 +1/16. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5. The recent high yield: 1.64%! Libor update: 0.237% 3 mos,0.335%!!! 6 mos. BOTH at/near NEW record lows 0.236%!!! and 0.335% respectively!). Foreign bond yields lower, ex-Greece: Germany 1.75% -3; UK 2.81% +1 – recent high 3.03%!; France 2.41% -3; Italy 3.81% -3; Spain 3.69% -3; Portugal 5.22% -2; Greece 7.69% +4. Recent range 7.51%-12.57%. Japan: 0.66% -1. Yen slightly better at 104.25, recent range 103.59-105.44 last week, low since 10/1/08!!!

Gold rose slightly in a very narrow ‘inside’ session, three days after printing a high of $1258.00, highest since 12/11/13 and closed at $1240.20 +$1.90. Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!!  Recent high is $1375.40 back on 9/19. Psych levels: $1200 sup; $1300 res, with major sup at the 40 day ($1231!) and res at the 50 day ($1243!). The 200 day is $1330. Overnight it is higher at $1247.80 +$7.60.

Crude closed slightly weaker following Wednesday rally at $93.96 -.21. Wednesday’s high was $94.64, highest since 1/3/14. Last Thursday it fell to the lowest print since 5/2/13: $91.24! Note 12/27 was first time above $100 since 10/21! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. It is still below the three key m/a’s which are all major res: 50 day m/a ($95.43!!!), 40 day (95.78!), crossed!!! and the 200 day ($98.92!!!) – all major resistance! 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is higher at $94.79 +.83 with a high of $94.88 – took out the double top at 94.84!

Overnight markets:

Global equity markets flat to higher, ex-India/Korea: UK – vs +0.1% vs +0.7% vs +0.1% vs +0.2%; France – vs -0.1% vs +0.7% vs -0.2% vs +0.1%; Germany +0.1% vs -0.1% vs +1.4%!!! vs -0.3% vs +0.1%; Japan -0.1% vs -0.4% vs +2.5%! vs -3.1%!!! vs closed; Hang Seng +0.6% vs 0.4% vs +0.5% vs -0.4% vs +0.2%; Korea -0.7% vs +0.2% vs +0.4% vs -0.2% vs +0.5% vs -0.4%; India -1%! vs -0.1% vs +1.2%! vs -0.5% vs +1.8%!!! vs +0.2%. U.S. stock futures higher: DOW +26 (48); SPX -3 (8); NDQ +1 (17)

 

Some random thoughts:

A friend sent a survey of what people of different persuasions view is most important problem facing the U.S, 1/14/14. Here is the link: Gallup Poll – government

It is reminiscent of Pogo’s famous quote (if you remember that little comic dog with political insight): ‘we have met the enemy and they are us!”

Gallup first gave totals, then by political party. The ones that interested TB most were:

Overall             GOP                 Ind.                    Dem

Dissatisfaction with Congress, etc.         21% (#1)         26%(1)            23%(1)            18% (1)

Economy in general                                      18% (#2)         20%(4)           19%(2)             17% (2)

Unemployment                                               16% (#3)        11% (5!)          18% (3)             17% (3)

Healthcare                                                        16% (#4)        24% (2*)         13% (4)            14%(4)

Federal Debt                                                       8% (#5)         16% (4)             8%(5)              3% (9!)

Ethics, morals, etc.                                        5% (#6)           7% (6)              4%(9!)            5% (7)

Lack of Money                                                 4% (#7)            4% (7)              5%(7)              3% (8?)

Wealth Gap                                                    4%(#8!)          1% (9!)            5%(6)              6% (6)

Education                                                       4%(#9!)       4% (8!)         4%(8)          6%(5)

Poverty/Homelessness                               4% (10)                n/a                     n/a                   n/a

Foreign Aid/Focus overseas                      3% (11)                n/a                      n/a                  n/a

Immigration/Illegal Aliens                        3% (12)                n/a                      n/a                   n/a

Lack of respect for one another               2% (13)                n/a                      n/a                   n/a

Welfare                                                               2% (14)                n/a                      n/a                   n/a

Author’s comments:

-Government doubled since the shutdown in survey three months ago

-Government up slightly from a year ago

-Healthcare quadrupled – most likely for differing reasons

-Deficit from 20% to 8% while Economy dropped from 21% to 18%, unemployment stable

-combining economy and government together 34% overall: 31%/37%/34%

-he too cited lack of money and wealth gap as surprisingly low

TB’s comments:

-concern is most likely a lack of it but Obamacare…make sense?

-Note the last five places…pretty disconcerting that they are so low…dog eat dog society?

-Wealth Gap and Education are most likely right behind unemployment for economists…then the economy takes care of itself

-Not much emphasis on poverty…foreign aid? Pullease not a factor but could be involvement in Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, etc

-Note immigration which is of primary import to GOP leaders, no one cares about!

-Also GOP opposition to minimum wage which is below poverty level a problem?

Hope you found this interesting and useful…borrow and buy?…or short???

Have a great weekend…go Niners!

TB

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