1/15/14…the taxman cometh today!

TB’s Quote of the Day: “Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country.” – JFK…who knew the IRS would adopt that as its motto? Of course, Belfort twisted the quote around to …what my country and it citizens can do for me!!!

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “If Shaw and Einstein couldn’t beat death, what chance have I? Practically none.” – Mel Brooks

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Experience teaches only the teachable.” –Aldous Huxley

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Bank of America Profit Quadruples to $3.44B as Mortgage Costs Fall – is THAT sustainable???

*U.S. Producer Prices in 2013 Posted the Smallest Annual Gain in Five Years

*Stocks Advance With Dollar as Treasuries Fall on Global Economic Optimism – myopia?

*Deutsche Bank Said to Suspend at Least One Currency Trader in Rate Probe – a start!

*New York Area Manufacturing Index Rises to 12.51 Against Estimate of 3.5 – ???

*EU Lawmakers Clinch Deal on Financial-Market Revamp to Restore Confidence

*Rambourg Says European Equities’ Prospects for 2014 Are Best in Five Years

*Time Warner Cable Investors Want at Least $140 a Share in Deal

*Japan to U.S. Stocks Best in 27 Years on Central Banking – certainly not on government!

*Colombia’s Inflation Seen by Central Bankers as Rising to Target by 2015 – yawn!

*Mothers Face ‘Survival Mode’ as U.S. Trails World on Paid Maternity Leave – sick and sicker!

* Sailors Starving on Stranded Ships Signal Bigger Peril Than Somali Pirates

*Senate Bid to Renew U.S. Jobless Benefits Collapses Amid Partisan Sparring – Damnable GOP!

*Warrants for Phone Records Said No Burden as Obama Prepares NSA Decision

*Rouhani in Davos Has Chance to Lure Investment After Iran’s Nuclear Accord

*Diners Urged to Turn Up the Tips as West Virginia Assesses Costs of Spill

Tuesday’s Market Summary:

It started out like a ‘dead cat bounce’ but turned into a legitimate rally and ended the session even with Friday mas o menos. The only negative was the low volume but it wasn’t that low…just lower. In short, you have to believe, bull or bear, you have to believe. You can also, as TB is doing, sit on the fence and watch the ‘action’ if that is what you want to call it. Just remember to file your estimated taxes today…if you need to…

Among the indices…The two Nasdaqs finally woke up with the 100 leading the way, +1.9% – muchas gracias, senor Apple!; the Composite +1.7% – of course the were both off 1.5% and the ‘goats’ yesterday, while the Russell 2000, the other goat, rose 1.3% – all were down 1.4%! Dow Transports +1.3% vs -1.4%. However, both the S&P 500 +1.1% vs -1.3% and the Dow +0.7% vs -1.1%! failed to get the job done. As for the lowly Dow Utilities, they were +0.1% vs -0.9% – the ‘best’ performer on Monday! NYSE Financials also missed the cut rising 0.7% but after a loss of 1%.

NYSE Volume reverted to Friday’s level of 3.33B shares vs 3.57B vs 3.33B vs 3.56B vs 3.63B shares – highest since December 20th! Real NYSE Volume also reverted and then some to 650M shares from 734M – highest since 12/20 vs 669M vs 697M vs 759M –  highest and first time above 700M since 12/20!  

The Apple continues to amuse and amaze as it has obviously become a fave of the high frequency traders, closing up 2%! vs +0.5% vs -0.7% vs -1.2% vs +0.6% – it is it’s own market! Any resemblance to the rest of the market is purely coincidental. On Friday it was the only NDQ 100 stock losing >1 pt.

Advance/Declines and Breadth were both strong, a rarity of late. The VIX, acting like a Duncan yo-yo, plunged 7.5% to 12.29 -99 with a range of 11.96-12.90…clearly indicative of major call buying…but is that rather than buy real stocks???. It’s low this weak is 11.82! A warning flag!?!

The Nasdaq 100 gained 68 points!!! vs -52 points!!! vs +12.5 vs -15 vs +10 vs +31 vs -12 vs -25 vs -28. Breadth was very positive +9:1 vs -7:1!  More than a dozen members gained more than one index point!!! While none lost even half a point! The outright winner and only winner on Monday was APPL +8.5!!! vs +1.3 vs -2.8 vs -5.6!!! vs +2.7 vs -3 vs +4.4 vs -9.7!!!; GOOG +6.5!!! vs -1.8; MSFT +5.9! vs -7.8!!! vs +3.8 vs -1.7 vs -4.8!!! INTC +4.5!; FB +3 vs -3.4! vs +1.2 vs -1.7; BIIB +2.9 vs -3.3! vs +2; REGN +2.7; AMZN +2.7 vs -2.7 vs -1.4. GILD +2.5 vs -2.4 ; TSLA +2.4; CMCSA +2.2 vs -2.6 vs +1.3…well, at least they weren’t volatile…much!!!

Dow 30 +0.7% vs -1.1%! vs +0.1% vs -0.1% vs 0.4%; Dow Transports +1.3% vs -1.4% vs +1.2% vs +1%; Russell 2000 +1.3% vs -1.4% vs +0.5% vs +0.1% vs –; Dow Utilities +0.1% vs -0.9% vs +1.3%!?! vs +0.7% vs -0.5%; S&P 500 +1.1% vs -1.3% vs +0.2% vs – vs –; Nasdaq Composite +1.7%!!! vs -1.5%! vs +0.4% vs -0.2% vs +0.3%; NDQ 100 +1.9%!!! vs -1.5%! vs +0.4% vs -0.4% vs +0.3%.

*NYSE Volume reverted to Friday’s level of 3.33B shares vs 3.57B vs 3.33B vs 3.56M vs 3.63B vs 3.48B vs 3.23B vs 2.76B. The record high (?) is the 4.97B shares of 12/20/13 and Q3 end of quarter while 11/29’s 1.59B is weakest of 2013). REAL NYSE Volume declined even more to 650M shares vs 734M shares!!! vs 669M vs 697M vs 759M!!! The 12-month low is 272M on 12/24. The average since 12/20 is up to a still weak 587M shares with a high of 759M! The 12 month is 719M shares. Last year there were just TEN 1B+ share sessions! There were 39 800M+ shares in 2013: 18 up, 19 down, three mixed.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 33-864. They plunged to 281 vs 351 vs 411 vs 435 vs 355 vs 316 vs 271 vs 217 vs 201! Recent high is a super-strong 890!!! New lows were lower and weak at 36 vs 50 vs 30 vs 44 vs 30 vs 20 vs 30 vs 23 vs 43 vs 78 vs 72 vs 76 vs  60 vs 44 vs 68 vs 81 vs 127 vs 131. Recent high is 353; low 20!!!  

  1. Advance/Declines were strong: +2.4x vs -2.5x vs +2.5x vs +1.1x vs -1.3x (recent range -17.5x to +6x) on NYSE and +3x! vs -2.6x vs +1.4x vs -1.1x vs -1.1x (recent -4x!!! to +3.8x). Breadth was even stronger: +3.8x! vs -4.3x!!! vs +2x vs -1.03x vs +1.04x (recent -18.6x!!! to +7.2x!!!) on NYSE and +4.1x!!! vs -3.1x! vs +1.4x vs -1.2x (recent -12.8x to +6.5x).  
  2. NYSE Financials +0.7% vs -1%! vs +0.1% vs +0.1% vs +0.4%; BofA most active – per usual and +2%! but vs -2%! vs -0.4% vs +1.5%!?! vs +0.4%, closing at $16.76 +.33. Brokers +1.1% vs -1.2%! vs -0.1% vs vs -0.4%; KBW Banks +0.5% vs -1.3%!!! vs -0.4% vs +0.7% vs +0.8%; Nasdaq Banks +0.5% vs -0.9% vs -0.2% vs +0.4% vs –. JPM pounded early on the FNMA settlement but came back to close +0.1% – the many lives of Jamie Dimon!
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) PLUNGED back to near its lowest close and low since 8/5/13! From 13.31 with a high of 13.65 to 12.29 -.99 with a low of 11.96! It is again well below the 40/50 day (13.61/13.53) while the 200 day is 14.40. 12/26’s (TB’s birthday) 11.69 was lowest since 3/15/13!!! Recent high on 1/2 was 16.67! The recent range is 11.83-21.01!!! It peaked at 22.79 on 12/28/12…ytd the range is 11.05 (3/14) to 21.92 (6/24)!

Bonds gave up after two days of nice rallies which were a result of Fridays WEAK payrolls which took them to lowest yields since 11/26/13, 10‘s -3/8 and the 30 yr -9/16 while the long TIP lost another 7/8! All little changed overnight: 30 yr 3.80 -1/16 – high 3.97% on 12/31; the 10 yr 2.87% -1/16, recent high 3.03%! Long TIP 1.44 +1/16. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5. The recent high yield: 1.64%! Libor update: 0.238% 3 mos,0.336%!!! 6 mos. BOTH at or near NEW record lows 0.237%!!! and 0.336% respectively!). Foreign bond yields mixed, higher for developed nations, lower for problem credits: Germany 1.83% +2; UK 2.86% +3 – recent high 3.03%!; France 2.48% +1; Italy 3.87% -1; Spain 3.76% -5; Portugal 5.24% -12; Greece 7.59% -8. Recent range 7.51%-12.57%. Japan : 0.65% +1. Yen slightly weaker at 104.42, recent range 103.59-105.44 last week, low since 10/1/08!!!

Gold had a nothing session a day after printing a high of $1258.00, highest since 12/11/13 and closed at $1245.40 -$5.70. Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!!  Recent high is $1375.40 back on 9/19. Psych levels: $1200 sup; $1300 res, with major sup at the 40 day ($1235!) and res/sup now at the 50 day ($1247!). The 200 day is $1335. Overnight it is weaker at $1226.70 -$8.70.

Crude was up slightly in a parallel session. It closed at $92.59 +.79. Last Thursday it fell to the lowest print since 5/2/13: $91.24! Note 12/27 was first time above $100 since 10/21! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. It is way below the three key m/a’s which are all major res: 50 day m/a ($95.44!!!), 40 day (95.75!), crossed!!! and the 200 day ($98.93!!!) – all still falling and all major resistance! 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is up slightly at $92..81 +.22.

Overnight markets:

Global equity markets higher led by Japan, Germany, and India: UK +0.7% vs +0.1% vs +0.2% vs +0.9% vs +0.1%; France +0.7% vs -0.2% vs +0.1% vs +0.8% vs –; Germany +1.4%!!! vs -0.3% vs +0.1% vs +0.8% vs +0.2%; Japan +2.5%! vs -3.1%!!! vs closed vs +0.2% vs -1.5%; Hang Seng +0.5% vs -0.4% vs +0.2% vs +0.3% vs -0.9%; Korea +0.4% vs -0.2% vs +0.5% vs -0.4% vs -0.7%; India +1.2%! vs -0.5% vs +1.8%!!! vs +0.2% vs -0.1% vs +0.2%. U.S. stock futures higher in the ‘new normal’ narrow range session: DOW +32 (range 52); SPX +4 (6); NDQ +14 (18).

 

Some random thoughts:

Don’t forget to pay your estimated tax today…and start getting those IRA/401(k) contributions in!

Thanks to all who commented yesterday on being king. Obviously, no one agreed totally with TB but that is exactly what TB wanted! TB has an opinion, you need to find and have your own. Thankfully TB’s readers are still capable of doing that…no sheep allowed!

Running late from a Rotary meeting so that’s it for today!

TB

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