1/10/14…no mojo in market so ignore payrolls – December, stupid!

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “Imitation is the sincerest form of television.” – Fred Allen, and “you can always tell when television executives are in a restaurant: they keep ordering and cancelling, ordering, and cancelling.”–Bob Hope 

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Design is not just what it looks and feels like. Design is how it works.” – Steve Jobs

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls rose by a weak 74k in December vs consensus 197k, smallest gain since January 2011!!! (on CNBC, a forecaster who consults to stores said that is is normally 1/3 of November due to just 12 hiring days, even flopped there). November was revised UP to 241k vs 203k, October unchanged. Private payrolls rose by 8k while government SHRUNK by 13k – still think we should leave it to the private sector? Factory Jobs rose by 9k, Construction FELL by 16k! Also, 273k were not working in December due to weather – most since 1977 doesn’t bode well for GDP, right?  

The Unemployment Rate declined to 6.68% vs 7.02% – simmer down! The Labor Participation rate plunged again to 62.8% – yet another multi-decade low…the FED is going to be concerned…as should you! For all of 2013 unemployment averaged 7.4%, lowest since 2008 – that’s the ‘good news’ bad news is that it is a meaningless number now that the GOP has chopped emergency unemployment from the rolls – FOOLS, and that didn’t show up in December because it happened well after the cutoff date! Capiche? What was the ‘underemployment’ rate: 13.1%! Something to be proud of? No, ashamed! Average hourly earning rose a puny 1.8% in Dec. from a year ago – get it?DECEMBER average hourly earnings? +0.1%! Criminal while CEO’s enrich themselves! Also, the household measure of jobs rose by 143,000 – remember you don’t have to be paid to count in this number…just say you worked for even an hour a week!   

Market Reaction: stock futures were up, then plunged to negative on the news, quickly recovered (most likely due to the faux unemployment rate),then when market opened have been volatile but the Dow has remained positive and is now up 19; Transports strong ? – up 46 points. Bonds were up slightly before the reports then rallied as they understand that the unemployment rate is meaningless blather…it is the underemployment rate at 13.1% that concerns them…and no need to. Long end is up ¾ and steady!! Gold rallied sharply and is up $11, while Crude is up but coming off the low since 5/2/12! Dollar little changed except Yen is stronger coming off that recent low. Suckers market!!!  

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Payrolls in U.S. Rise Less Than Forecast While Jobless Rate Drops to 6.7%(SCAM!)

*Target Says Personal Details of up to 70 Million Customers May Be Stolen – EGADS!

*Treasuries Gain With S&P 500 Futures (?) as U.S. Unemployment Growth SLOWS!

*Bankers’ Warnings Are Heeded as Regulators Poised to Dilute Leverage Ratio – this will create another financial crisis…do you still doubt the banks are in charge???

*Ignore Wall Street’s Banks Is Skagen Advice on Emerging Market Bets – he says buy

*New York Probes Brokerages to Analysts After BlackRock Survey Settlement UGH!!!

*VW Is Planning to Build New SUV in Tennessee to Revive U.S. Expansion

*Julian Rifat Is Said to Face Charges in Biggest U.K. Insider-Trading Probe – !!!

*U.S. Jobs Report Often Seems to Be a Rorschach Test for Nerds – do tell i.e. today!

*Christies’ Handling of Crisis Fualted for ‘Bully’ Quote that Evokes Nixon – fool!

*Obama Fast-Track Trade Agenda Risked by Opposition From Labor-State Levin

*Indian Diplomat Leaves U.S. After Visa Fraud Charges That Fueled Tensions

*Water Worries Lead Texas Homeowners to Fault EPA over Use of Driller Data

 

Thursday’s Market Summary:

A second straight mixed session ahead of December payrolls. NYSE Volume was slightly lower at 3.56B shares, slightly less than Wednesday’s 3.63B shares – highest since December 20th Real NYSE Volume slipped to a slightly below average 697M shares vs 759M – not only highest but first time above 700M since 12/20! Dow Transports rose 1% for honors followed by the usually ‘weak’ Dow Utilities +0.7%. Dow -0.1%: S&P 500 flat, the two Nasdaq’s both slightly weak and offsetting Wednesday’s puny gains. The Russell 2000 was up just 0.1% as were NYSE Financials – carried by the KBW banks and led by BofA for a second straight session …if that makes sense to you…

Apple continues to trade ‘psychotically’ losing nearly 1.32% and offsetting Wednesday’s 0.6% gain vs -0.6% vs +0.8% vs -2.2% vs -2.4%. Why the interest in Apple? Because it is a significant part of the two Nasdaq’s (especially the 100) and the S&P 500, weighting unavailable.

Advance/Declines were narrow and mixed while Breadth were slightly negative/ The VIX  was parallel to Wednesday and closed ever so slightly higher at 12.89 +.02, but the range was 12.83-13.26 – slightly ‘outside’ but essentially identical. Today???

The Nasdaq 100 lost 15 points (5.6 from Apple) vs +10  vs +31 vs -12 vs -25 vs -28 vs +22. Breadth was slightly negative. EIGHT members lost more than one index point, while four gained more than a point: APPL -5.6!!! vs +2.7 vs -3 vs +4.4 vs -9.7!!! vs -6.4! vs +5.3! vs -2.6 vs -3 vs -2; GOOG -2.7; BBBY -1.9; MSFT -1.7 vs -4.8!!! vs +1.9 vs -5.6! vs -1.9 vs -2 vs +1; FB -1.7; BIDU -1.5; FOXA -1.2; CSCO -1;  AMGN +2; COST +1.7; GILD +1.1 vs +0.9; ESRN +1.

Dow 30 -0.1% vs 0.4% vs +0.6% vs -0.3% vs +0.2%; Dow Transports +1% vs +0.3% vs +0.7% vs -1.3%! vs +0.5%; Russell 2000 +0.1% vs – vs +0.9% vs -0.8% vs +0.5%; Dow Utilities +0.7% vs -0.5% vs +0.8% vs +0.2% vs -0.3%; S&P 500 – vs — vs +0.6% vs -0.3% vs –; Nasdaq Composite -0.2% vs +0.3% vs +1% vs 0.4% vs -0.3%; NDQ 100 -0.4% vs +0.3% vs +0.9% vs -0.3% vs -0.7%.

*NYSE Volume was slightly lower at a still above average 3.56M shares vs 3.63B vs 3.48B vs 3.23B vs 2.76B vs 3.06B vs 2.3B vs 2.27B vs 2.04B. The record high (?) is the 4.97B shares of 12/20/13 and Q3 end of quarter while 11/29’s 1.59B is weakest of 2013). REAL NYSE Volume slipped to a slightly below average 697M shares vs 759M vs 699M vs 669M vs 544M vs 624M vs 568M vs 462M vs 424M, from the new 12-month low of 272M. The average since 12/20 is just 562M shares with a high of 759M! The 12 month is 719M shares. Last year there were just TEN 1B+ share sessions! There were 39 800M+ shares in 2013: 18 up, 19 down, three mixed.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 33-864. They rose again to 435 vs 355 vs 316 vs 271 vs 217 vs 201! Recent high is a super-strong 890!!! New lows were slightly higher at a weak 44 vs 30 vs 20 vs 30 vs 23 vs 43 vs 78 vs 72 vs 76 vs  60 vs 44 vs 68 vs 81 vs 127 vs 131. Recent high is 353; low 20!!!  

  1. Advance/Declines were narrow and mixed: +1.1x vs -1.3x vs +1.9x vs -1.2x vs +1.8x (recent range -17.5x to +6x) on NYSE and -1.1x vs -1.1x vs +2.3x vs -1.7x vs +1.6x (recent -4x!!! to +3.8x). Breadth was slightly negative: -1.03x vs +1.04x vs +1.5x vs -1.3x vs +1.2x (recent -18.6x!!! to +7.2x!!!) on NYSE and -1.2x vs +1.4x vs +3.8x!!! vs +1.1x vs +1.2x (recent -12.8x to +6.5x).  
  2. NYSE Financials +0.1% vs +0.4% vs +0.4% vs +0.1% vs +0.5%; BofA most active – per usual and strong: +1.5%!?! vs +0.4% vs -1% vs +1.5%??? vs +1.9%???, closing at $16.83 +.25. Brokers – vs -0.4% vs +0.7% vs -0.4% vs +0.6% vs -0.4% vs +1.2%!; KBW Banks +0.7% vs +0.8% vs +0.4% vs +0.4% vs +0.8% vs -0.5% ; Nasdaq Banks +0.4% vs — vs +0.5% vs -0.7% vs +0.2% vs -1.3%!!!
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) rose infinitesimally for the first time in five sessions but remains below the 40/50 day (13.62/13.56) and well below the 200 day (14.40), closing at 12.89 +.02. 12/26’s (TB’s birthday) 11.69 was lowest since 3/15/13!!! Recent high on 1/2 was 16.67! The recent range is 11.83-21.01!!! It peaked at 22.79 on 12/28/12…ytd the range is 11.05 (3/14) to 21.92 (6/24)!

Bonds were a little higher BUT led by the long TIP which gained a point to close at 1.44% – what’s with TIPS with no inflation factor. Bonds were slightly better overnight but rallied on the payrolls weakness: 30 yr 3.84 +13/16; the 10 yr 2.90% +1/2, recent high 3.03%! Long TIP 1.41% +3/4!?! The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5. The recent high yield: 1.64%! Libor update: 0.242% 3 mos,0.344% 6 mos. BOTH at the new record lows 0.240%!!! and 0.344% respectively!). Foreign bond yields lower across the board: Germany 1.6% -6!!!; UK 2.90% -8!!!! recent high 3.03%!; France 2.52% -5!!!; Italy 3.90% -3; Spain 3.80% +1; Portugal 5.33% -1; Greece 7.51%!!! -4. Recent range NOW: 7.51%-12.57%. Japan …0.69% +1. Yen slightly better at 104.60…1/3’s 105.44 weakest since 10/1/08!!!

Gold had a very narrow ‘inside’ session and closed at $122*.40 +$4.10, following Monday’s ‘outside day’ which had a high of $1247.70, highest since 12/16. Jan. 2’s low of $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!!  Recent high is $1375.40 back on 9/19. $1200 is sup while $1300 is psychological resistance with major res at the 40 day ($1237!) and the 50 day ($1253!). The 200 day is $1341. Overnight it is rallying, post payrolls at $1240.5070 +$11.16 – session high $1245!

Crude crushed again falling to $91.24 – lowest since 5/2/12!!! – before a dead cat bounce took it back to $91.66 -.66!!! close at $92.33 – talk about a ‘bad day at Black Rock! Down and downer? Note 12/27 was first time above $100 since 10/21! On 11/27 it printed a new low of $91.77, lowest since 6/3!!! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. It is way below the three key m/a’s which are now major res: 40 day m/a ($95.86!!!), 50 day (95.74!), and the 200 day ($99.01!!!) – the 40/50 still falling and all major resistance! 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is up but meaninglessly to $92..98 +$1.32 with a high following payrolls of $93.38.

Overnight markets (post payrolls):  

European equity markets STRONG, Asia not so much, Korea remains weak: UK +0.9% vs +0.1% vs -0.4% vs +0.5% vs +0.1%; France +0.8% vs – vs -0.1% vs +0.4% vs -0.1%; Germany +0.8% vs +0.2% vs -0.1% vs +0.6% vs +0.1%; Japan +0.2% vs -1.5% vs +1.9% vs -0.6% vs -2.4%; Hang Seng +0.3% vs -0.9% vs +1.3% vs +0.1% vs -0.6% vs -2.2%!!!; Korea -0.4% vs -0.7% vs flat vs +0.3% vs +0.4% vs -1.1%! vs-2.2%!!!India +0.2% vs -0.1% vs +0.2% vs -0.5% vs -0.3% vs -0.2% vs -1.2%! U.S. stock futures were pretty strong then plummeted to losses before rebounding to a slight gain…caution: DOW +20 from +68 (range 82); SPX +3.30 from +9 (13); NDQ +7.50 from +25! (33).

 

Some random thoughts:

The Wolf of Wall Street redux: NPR interviewed Leonardo DeCaprio this morning. He did not feel the movie glorified Belfort and said he really likes the guy! Now do you believe TB that there will be college kids dying to get into this ‘fun’ business. It makes TB sick! DeCaprio you damnable fool!

Chris Christie may have shot himself in the foot…we still don’t know but even if he jested to his staff…which he is wont to do…he may have caused them to act the way they did. We may never know but as TB said about Jamie Dimon:  ethics start at the top…the only way to get ahead is to do the bosses bidding…or what you perceive that is.

But this is also a very political attack, after all the stakes are high. Remember the IRS scandal? The right succeeded in creating a stir that it was Obama’s fault (as they did with Benghazi) and despite the fact that the Commissioner was checking all PAC filings, since they were predominantly conservative, the smoking gun appeared to be there. Now we know Obama wasn’t involved…and to TB’s way of thinking…thanks to the idiotic and politically motivated Citizens United ruling, someone needs to find out who is behind these PACS. We know…Karl Rove, Koch brothers, and the usual suspects. Even Sandra Day O’Connor was appalled at the ruling. Besides, the negative lies generated to nothing but create disinformation for the electorate to sift through. We should all be ashamed.

So let’s let the dust settle on Christie, and see what emerges…deal?…or no deal?

Have a great weekend!

TB

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