1/7/14…baby it’s cold outside!

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “During the war I was hidden by an Italian couple in their basement. Of course, that was South Philly.”

– Norm Crosby

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Life is a long lesson in humility.” – James M. Barrie

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Bonds in Europe Rally With Stocks on Signs of Rebound; S&P Futures Advance – hmm

*Trade Gap in U.S. Shrinks to a Four-Year Low as Crude-Oil Imports Decline

*JPMorgan to Goldman Say Sell Emerging Markets After Worst Run Since 1998 – JPM/ Goldie: what about junk bonds? Ridiculously low yields or aren’t you short yet?

*German Unemployment Posts First Drop in Five Months as Confidence Rebounds

*Credit Suisse to Jettison Unwanted Assets More Quickly Amid Leverage Limits – and draw down those excess reserves earning 0.25% while Fed Funds pay just 0.11?

*Fed Should Know Corporates Losing to Derivatives in ETFs – hmmm

*Banks Fueling Bond Sale in Europe as Credit Risk Approaches Four-Year-Low – hmmm

*Marriott Opens Tallest U.S. Hotel Tower in New York City as Demand Climbs – why?

*Florida Orange Groves Seen Escaping Damage From U.S. Deep Freeze Overnight

*Bankruptcy Filings Drop 13% to 1 Million With December Marking 6 –Year Low

*India Saradha Savings Deposit Scam Collapses, Leaving Thousands Penniless

*Coldest Day in 20 Years Threatens U.S. after Polar Blast Snarls Transport

*Sunni Muslim Fighters in Anbar Vow Defiance as Iraq Army Readies Attack – sad!

*Senate Poised for Test Vote on Benefits as Democrats Focus on Inequality  

Monday’s Market Summary:

A tedious day…no more, no less. Friday’s up day did indeed prove to be a ‘dead cat’ bounce, as the gains were only about a third of Thursday’s loss and all indices were down yesterday – except the old goat, Dow Utilities which rose 0.2% vs -0.3% vs -1.6% – not much of a pedigree. Monday’s goat was Dow Transports which plunged 1.3%  ca +0.5% vs -1.5%! – did someone read TB’s commentary? Next worst was the Russell 2000 -0.8% vs +0.5% vs -1.1%! The rest? Down from 0.3-0.4%.S&P 500 was flat (3 of last FIVE sessions?!?), while the Dow rose a puny 0.2% and the two Nasdaq

Just when you thought it couldn’t get better, Apple started out weak then close up adding 2.7 points to the NDQ 100…of  course that was following  -9.7!!! vs -6.4! vs +5.3! vs -2.6 vs -3 vs -2.

NYSE Volume rose modestly to 3.23B shares (remember it was a down day!) vs 2.76B,  vs 3.06B another down day. Real NYSE Volume rose to 669M shares, still below average but on a down day vs 544M vs 624M…down day!

Advance/Declines and Breadth were modestly negative except Nasdaq Breadth was 1.1x positive. The VIX however, declined slightly for a second day after rising for four sessions from a 14 handle to 13.55…kinda neutral…

The Nasdaq 100 LOST 12points vs -25 vs -28 vs +22. Breadth was negative 3:1 vs -2:1 vs -6:1 vs +3:1. Six members lost more than an one index point, while four gained more than a point: MSFT -5.6! vs -1.9 vs -2 vs +1;CELG -2.6; EBAY -1.7; GILD -1.5 vs  -1.2; INTC -1.4; AMZN -1.1; FB +4.4; GOOG -2 vs -1.9 vs +2.8 vs -2.2; APPL +4.4 vs -9.7!!! vs -6.4! vs +5.3! vs -2.6 vs -3 vs -2; SIRI +1.4.

Dow 30 -0.3% vs +0.2% vs -0.8% vs +0.4% vs +0.2%; Dow Transports -1.3%! vs +0.5% vs -1.5%! vs +0.7% vs –; Russell 2000 -0.8% vs +0.5% vs -1.1%! vs +0.3% vs – vs -0.1%; Dow Utilities +0.2% vs -0.3% vs -1.6%! vs +0.3% vs +0.3%; S&P 500 -0.3% vs – vs -0.9% vs +0.4% vs – vs – (note number of unchanged sessions!); Nasdaq Composite –0.4% vs -0.3% vs -0.8% vs +0.5% vs -0.1%; NDQ 100 -0.3% vs -0.7% vs -0.8% vs +0.6% vs -0.1%.

*NYSE Volume rose to 3.23B shares vs 2.76B vs 3.06B vs 2.3B vs 2.27B vs 2.04B. The record high (?) is the 4.97B shares of 12/20/13 and Q3 end of quarter while 11/29’s 1.59B is weakest of 2013). REAL NYSE Volume also rose to 669M shares from a weak 544M vs 624M vs 568M vs 462M vs 424M, from the new 12-month low of 272M. The average since 12/20 is just 511M shares with a high of 669! The 12 month is 719M shares. Last year there were just TEN 1B+ share sessions! There were 39 800M+ shares in 2013: 18 up, 19 down, three mixed.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 33-864. They rose to 271 vs 217 vs 201! vs 560 vs 346 vs 445 vs 659. Recent high is a super-strong 890!!! New lows rose slightly from their recent low to 30 vs 23 vs 43 vs 78 vs 72 vs 76 vs  60 vs 44 vs 68 vs 81 vs 127 vs 131. Recent high is 353; low 23!!!  

  1. Advance/Declines were slightly negative: -1.2x vs +1.8x vs -2x vs +1.9x vs -1.1x (recent range -17.5x to +6x) on NYSE and -1.7x vs +1.6x vs -1.8x vs +1.4x vs -1.1x (recent -4x!!! to +3.8x). Breadth was mixed: -1.3x vs +1.2x vs -2.1x vs +2.8x vs -1.1x (recent -18.6x!!! to +7.2x!!!) on NYSE and +1.1x vs +1.2x vs -1.4x vs +2.1x vs -1.1x (recent -12.8x to +6.5x).  
  2. NYSE Financials +0.1% vs  0.5% vs -1% vs +0.4% vs +0.1%. BofA most active yet again AND +1.5%??? vs +1.9%??? vs +3.4%??? vs +0.2% vs -0.8%, closing at $16.66 +.25 – for another new 12-month high, highest since 6/1/10. Brokers -0.4% vs +0.6% vs -0.4% vs +1.2%! vs -0.2%; KBW Banks +0.4% vs +0.8% vs -0.5% vs -0.5% vs +0.4%; Nasdaq Banks -0.7% vs +0.2% vs -1.3%!!! vs +0.1% vs -0.4%.
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) fell for the 2nd time in five days and is closing in on the 40/50 day and the 200 day! The range was 13.22-14.00. A week ago Thursday’s 11.69 was lowest since 3/15/13!!! High for prior week was 16.67! The recent range is 11.83-21.01!!! It peaked at 22.79 on 12/28/12…ytd the range is 11.05 (3/14) to 21.92 (6/24)!

Bonds were slightly better for a 2nd day and even overnight: 30 yr 3.90 +3/8 – still too close to 4%, while the 10 yr is now 2.96% +3/16, recent high 3.03%! Long TIP closed 1.52% +1/2. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5. The recent high yield: 1.64%! Libor update: 0.242% 3 mos,0.345% 6 mos. (new record lows 0.243% and 0.344 respectively!). Foreign bond yields lower across the board: Germany 1.99% -2; UK 2.95% -2 from a high of 3.03%!; France 2.49% -3; Italy 3.88% -6! Spain 3.80% -10!!!; Portugal 5.43%!!! -5 vs -11 vs -17!!!; Greece 7.78%!!! -23!!! vs 8.03%. Recent range: 7.71%-12.57%. Japan …0.68% -3!!! Yen continues to rise off multi-year low…105.44…weakest since 10/1/08!!! Currently 104.41 -.04 – session high 104.38!

Gold had an ‘outside day’ with a high of $1247.70, highest since 12/16 and above the 40 day, but closed at $1238.00 -$0.60! This from last Tuesday’s low of $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!!  Recent high is $1375.40 back on 9/19. $1200 is sup/res, and $1300, psychological resistance with major res at the 40 day ($1242!) and the 50 day ($1260!) both still falling! The 200 day is $1346. Overnight it is slightly lower at $1236.70 -$1.30.

Crude just continues to fall…and fall…freefall – down for the count? Closed at $93.43 -.63 – lowest since 12/2!!! Note the session low of $93.20, also lowest since 12/2. The weak rally has been eradicated! Note 12/27 was first time above $100 since 10/21!. On 11/27 it printed a new low of $91.77, lowest since 6/3!!! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. It is now below the three key m/a’s which are now major res: 40 day m/a ($96.00!!!), 50 day (96.05!), and the 200 day is $99.04 – the 40/50 diving and all major resistance! 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is up slightly at $94.06 +.64.

Overnight markets:

European equity markets higher, Asia mixed: UK +0.5% vs +0.1% vs +0.3% vs -0.1% vs +0.3%; France +0.4% vs -0.1% vs +0.7% vs -0.8% vs +0.5%; Germany +0.6% vs +0.1% vs +0.5% vs -0.4% vs closed; Japan -0.6% vs -2.4% vs closed three days; Hang Seng +0.1% vs -0.6% vs -2.2%!!! vs +0.1% vs +0.3% vs – ; Korea +0.3% vs +0.4% vs -1.1%! vs-2.2%!!! vs closed; India -0.5% vs -0.3% vs -0.2% vs -1.2%! trend??? U.S. stock futures higher overnight: DOW +68 (range 72); SPX +7.10 (8); NDQ +17.25 vs -13.50 (14), gapped up.

 

Some random thoughts:

“Everyone talks about the weather but nobody does anything about it.” – Will Rogers

It has been called everything from the ‘Polar Express’ to the ‘Polar Blast’ to the ‘Polar Pig’! Whatever you choose to call it, it is the coldest weather in two decades. Of course, the skeptics will say: what global warming??? Well…TB will tell you: that cold streak exists from the Midwest to the East Coast…meanwhile in California temperatures are in the 70’s and 80’s! Worse, they haven’t had any rain the entire season. A friend wrote from Lake Tahoe that the AccuWeather forecasters aren’t expecting any precipitation there until at least February 1st – bodes poorly for the year’s water supply as NorCal ships it to south so the gardeners can hose down the driveways!

Lastly, a friend sent this from the Greenwich Times about a new book, released today, by a hedge fund manager:

Thanks to his popular blog “Sense on Cents,” and its pointed critiques of current Wall Street business practices, Greenwich money manager Larry Doyle was signed to write a book-length expose that is poised to be widely discussed in 2014.

“In Bed with Wall Street” (Palgrave Macmillan, $26), which will be published on Tuesday, Jan. 7, is a blistering account of the way that a “conspiracy” between Washington and Wall Street has lined the pockets of the richest financial services firms at the expense of average Joes.

Doyle shows how the increasing amounts of money going from Wall Street to politicians’ campaign chests has left voters in the lurch. While there are large differences between Republicans and Democrats on social issues, Wall Street has been getting its way from both parties for decades.

“The truth can be a little daunting,” Doyle said in a recent phone interview. “All I did was connect the dots and then try to put that into a narrative that the average American can understand.”

The author believes that one of the reasons Wall Street has cheated so many average investors is through the use of financial reports and prospectuses that are meant to be indecipherable.

“They want to keep financial vocabulary a foreign language … that way they can hide or disguise their fees and expenses,” Doyle said of the mind-numbing paperwork investors receive from financial services companies.

Thanks to his popular blog “Sense on Cents,” and its pointed critiques of current Wall Street business practices, Greenwich money manager Larry Doyle was signed to write a book-length expose that is poised to be widely discussed in 2014.

“In Bed with Wall Street” (Palgrave Macmillan, $26), which will be published on Tuesday, Jan. 7, is a blistering account of the way that a “conspiracy” between Washington and Wall Street has lined the pockets of the richest financial services firms at the expense of average Joes.

Doyle shows how the increasing amounts of money going from Wall Street to politicians’ campaign chests has left voters in the lurch. While there are large differences between Republicans and Democrats on social issues, Wall Street has been getting its way from both parties for decades.

“The truth can be a little daunting,” Doyle said in a recent phone interview. “All I did was connect the dots and then try to put that into a narrative that the average American can understand.”

TB has ordered it…and it comes in a Kindle edition for those of you minding your money.

Have a great day…stay warm, my friends. “I don’t always drink, but when I do in the winter it most certainly isn’t Dos Equis!”

TB

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: