12/17/13…bank shot!

Joke of the Day from the Friar’s Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: A woman needs only four animals in her life: a mink on her back, a jaguar in her garage, a tiger in her bed, and a jackass to pay for it all.” – unattributed…but true! Especially if she’s a trophy wife!!!

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Anyone can hold the helm when the sea is calm.” – Publilius Syrus…yeah, but TB knows it’s a bitch in a typhoon!!!

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Fed’s $4 Trillion in Assets Prompts bubble Concern From Lawmakers to FOMC–DUH!

*Stocks in Europe Drop With Emerging Market Currencies Before Fed Meeting – yawn!

*JPMorgan Said Poised to Ban Multi-Dealer Chat Rooms as Early as This Week–egads!

*U.K. Inflation Moves Toward BOE Target in Surprise Drop to Four-Year- Low

*Turkish Lira Plunges With Bonds on News Agency Report of Corruption Raid-Shocked!

*Ex-UBS Trader Hayes Pleads Not Guilty in First Libor-Rigging Prosecution – Guilty!

*Detroit Joins San Bernardino in Skipping Intermediate Appeals – (Jeopardy theme)

*Accidental Loophole Wealthiest American Avoid $100 Billion Tax Bill

*NSA Collection of Phone Records Probably Unconstitutional, U.S. Judge Says – in other words, the Feds have to observe the same Constitution as the local police! Sheesh!

*Mysterious Safes in Jersey City Reawaken Scandals of Political Corruption –  Shocked!

*North Korea Officials Praise Kim at Rally After Uncle’s Execution – do or die!!! LOL

Monday’s Market Summary:

“Monday, Monday, can’t trust that day, Monday, Monday, it just turns out that way”, and it certainly wasn’t’ “another manic Monday” either. True, it was on up day with the Dow bouncing (as in ‘dead cat’) off Friday the 13th ’s  bust, lowest weekly close in SIX WEEKS! Can’t stress strongly enough to you about Friday’s options expiry – rock and roll!!!

Yep another modest rally on low, albeit slightly higher volume ahead of the final options expiration of 2013 on Friday. The best performer was Dow Transports, up 0.9%, but followed by Dow Utilities +0.7%!

The VIX added to the gains since Wednesday’s gains closing at 16.07 +.31, AND with a high of 16.08 – highest since 10/16!!! NYSE Volume rose slightly but remains at a WEAK 3.13B shares vs 3.12B vs 3.48B vs 3.08B vs 3.11B vs 3.13B. The 12-month low of 1.59B shares was 10/29! Real NYSE Volume also rose modestly a still below average 681M shares vs 633M vs 753M vs 741M vs 633.

Advance/Declines and Breadth were slightly positive. New 52 week highs doubled to 223 from a very weak 113 vs 83 vs 112 vs 199 vs 322, while new lows were lower at 133 vs 166 vs 353!!! vs 239 vs 123.

Bonds were slightly higher early but closed weaker and remain near the high yields of August and November: 30yr 3.92-3.93%! Gold rose again but the chance of a yearend rally is remote, after failing after Tuesday’s rally to $1267.50, highest since 11/20! Six days ago it printed a new low of $1210.10! 12/4’s ‘positive key reversal’ off that low has been rejected as was the prior one! Crude closed higher again at $97.48 +.88 in a parallel ssession, following Friday’s print of 96.26, lowest since 12/3! Ten days ago it had a new low of $91.77 – lowest since 6/3! Gas is still $2.85 in Minneapolis!

The Nasdaq 100 gained 19 points vs -4 vs -9 vs -45 vs -2 vs +12 vs +26.5…conflicted? Breadth was positive at 2.1v vs 1:1 vs -7:3 vs -11:1!!! vs 1:1 vs -9:5 vs +4.8:1. Six members gained more than one index point, while none lost a point: GOOG +3 vs -2.2 vs -1.8 vs -1.8; APPL +2.5 vs -4.9 vs -0.7 vs -3.4 vs n/a vs +5.2 vs-6.4; CSCO +2.1 vs -1.3 vs -1.8; AMZN +2.5 vs +1.2; EBAY +1.8; MSFT +1.4 vs -3.9 vs -2.9 vs -3.7 vs +4.2 vs +2.3 vs +2.7.

Dow 30 +0.8% vs +0.1% vs -0.7% vs -0.8% vs -0.3%; Dow Transports +0.9% vs +0.4% vs flat vs -1.6%! vs -0.7%; Russell 2000 +0.6% vs +0.3% vs +0.2% vs -1.6%! vs -0.9%; Dow Utilities +0.7%? vs -0.2% vs -0.1% vs -0.9% vs -1.1%; S&P 500 +0.6% vs flat vs -0.4% vs -1.1% vs -0.3% vs +0.2% vs +1.1%; Nasdaq Composite +0.6% vs +0.1% vs -0.1% vs -1.4%! vs -0.2%; NDQ 100 +0.7% vs -0.1% vs -0.3% vs -1.3%! vs -0.1%.

*NYSE Volume barely budged to a weak 3.16B shares from 3.06B vs 3.37B vs 3.48B vs 3.08B vs 3.11B vs 3.13B. The record high (?) is 4.82B shares on Q3 end of quarter while 11/29’s 1.59B is weakest of 2013, replacing 1.96B as the low). REAL NYSE Volume also rose slightly to a still below average 681M shares vs 633M vs 753M shares – highest since 11/26 – vs 741 vs 633M vs 480M. The average for last week was better but still below average at 691M shares. Since 11/11 the high is 828M shares on 11/26! The 12-month average is 722M shares. The average since 10/31 is just 688M shares. This year there have been just NINE 1B+ share sessions! There have been 38 800M+ shares in 2013: 16 up, 19 down, three mixed.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 33-864. They rose to a modest 223 from a WEAK 83! vs 112 vs 199 vs 322. Recent high is a super-strong 890!!! New lows were halved to 133 vs 353 vs 239. Recent low is 35! !  

  1. Advance/Declines were positive: +2x vs +1.3x vs -1.4x vs -4x! vs -1.5x (recent range -17.5x to +6x) on NYSE and +2.1x vs +1.4x vs -1.1x vs -3.3x! vs -1.9x (recent -4x!!! to +3.8x). Breadth was better: +2.4x vs 1.2x vs -1.4x vs -6x!!! vs -1.5x (recent -18.6x!!! to +7.2x!!!) on NYSE and +2.8x vs +1.2x vs -1.3x vs -3.6x! vs -1.1x (recent -12.8x to +6.5x).  
  2. NYSE Financials rose 1.2%!?! vs +0.1% vs -0.4% vs -1.3%! vs -0.3% vs -1% vs +1.3%. BofA most active: +0.7% vs -0.5% vs flat vs -2%!!! vs -0.1%, closing at $15.28 +.10. 11/25’s 12-month high was $15.98, highest since 6/1/10. Brokers +0.3%? vs +0.1% vs +0.3% vs -1% vs flat; KBW Banks +0.7% vs -0.2% vs +0.5% vs -1.4%! vs -0.3%; Nasdaq Banks +1.4%!?! vs -0.2% vs +0.6% vs -1.2% vs -0.9%.
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) rose again to a very high 16.07 +.31, just off the session high of 16.08!. Last Wednesdays 10.9% surge made a session high of 16.09! It is well above the 40/50/200 day m/a’s: 13.46/14.19/14.34!!! The recent range is 11.83-21.01!!! Since March 11th the average has been just 14.44…way below the five year average of 23.32~~~ and the It peaked at 22.79 on 12/28/12…ytd the range is 11.05 (3/14) to 21.92 (6/24)!

Bonds closed weaker after being up along with stocks in the morning!?! Still unable to recovered from last Wednesday’s pounding – the fourth time since last August when the ‘tapering talk’ began – closing at 3.90% -3/8 on the 30 yr while the 10 yr closed at 2.88% -1/8. Mixed overnight??? 10 yr Treasury 2.87% +1/16 (recent range 1.63% to 2.99%), and the 30 yr 3.90% -1/8 (recent range 2.67% to 3.92%). The long TIP is 1.56% +1/8??? The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5. NOTE recent high yield: 1.63%! Libor update: 0.244% 3 mos, 0.348% 6 mos. (both at or near record lows!). Foreign bond yields little changed: Germany 1.82% -1; UK 2.88% -1; France 2.43% -1; Italy 4.04% –; Spain 4.04% –; Portugal 5.99% +2; Greece 8.60% -4. Recently: 7.71% – 12.57%. Japan 0.65% -2! Off a high of 0.69%!

Gold gained back another 1/3 of Thursdays’ loss in another nothing session. The chances of a yearend rally remain slim to none following Thursday’s low of $1222.60, down once again after a positive ‘key reversal’! It closed at $1244.40 +$9.80. This, four days after trading to $1267.50, highest since 11/20. 12/6’s low was $1210.10, lowest since 6/28. Recent high is $1375.40 on 9/19. 6/27’s intraday low was $1179.40 – lowest since at least 2011 and critical support. $1300 remains psychological resistance with major res at the 40 day ($1280!) and the 50 day ($1285!). Major resistance at $1375, the 9/19 high. The 200 day is a $1371. Overnight it is slightly weaker in dull trading, and is now $1238.40. -$6.

Crude closed higher at $97.48 +.88, on a parallel session a day after trading to $96.26, lowest since 12/3. Note the double top at the high of $98.75 not seen since 10/22. On 11-27 it printed a new low of $91.77, lowest since 6/3!!! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 was $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! It has lost momentum from 9/18’s surge to $108.49. 9/19’s session high was $108.99! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. It remains above the 40 day m/a ($95.61) and now above the 50 day (96.90), both are dropping AND major support! The 200 day is $98.68, and very major resistance! 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is slightly higher at $97.64 +.16 – with a high of $97.84.

Overnight markets:

European stocks weaker, Asia mixed: UK -0.4% vs +1% vs +0.2% vs -0.5% vs +0.3%; France -1% vs +1.3% vs +0.3% vs -0.1% vs +0.8%; Germany -0.4% vs +1.7% vs +0.1% vs -0.4% vs +0.1%; Japan +0.8% vs -1.6% vs +0.4% vs -1.1% vs -0.6% vs -0.3% vs +2.3%!; Hang Seng -0.2% vs -0.6% vs +0.1% vs -0.5% vs -1.7%; Korea +0.2% vs -0.1% vs -0.3% vs -0.5%; India -0.2% vs -0.3% vs -1% vs -1.2% vs -0.4%; (10am EST) U.S. stock indices opened higher, but quickly turned turtle: DOW -5; SPX -5; NDQ -7. Today or Wednesday will set the tone for expiry.

Some random thoughts:

How do the big banks keep getting away from prosecution? Even the Volcker (sic) rule is subject to interpretation. Is the government scared of them? Who in the world is big enough to buy JPMorgan?…especially after the Fed gave them Bear Stearns on a platter. Not second guessing that but where do we go from here?

Take the top five banks (JPM. BofA, Citi, Wells, and U.S. Bancorp)…please! As Floyd Norris noted: even if U.S. Bank bought the next three on the list, Bank of New York Mellon, PNC, and Capital One, it would STILL rank number five! Think about that!

Don’t know where Goldman, Morgan Stanley, and UBS – the faux banks – rank but who cares…and let’s take away that ‘bank’ title! They are nothing of the sort!

Once again, running late and tired of pontificating to an audience that simply doesn’t care, or at least enough to band together to do something about it. We deserve what we get…don’t you think? Apathy is an understatement in this case!

Still…have a great day! It isn’t you that is the culprit…right? Please say you aren’t!



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