TB’s Quote of the Day: “I am so clever that sometimes I don’t understand a single word of what I am saying.” – Oscar Wilde…sounds like TB, no?
Joke of the Day from the Friar’s Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “I’m a Catholic and I can’t commit suicide, but I plan to drink myself to death.” – Jack Kerouac
Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Nothing pains some people more than having to think.” – Martin Luther King, Jr. – let me think about that…
Bloomberg Top Stories:
*Wholesale Prices in U.S. Declined for a Third Month in November on Energy
*Yen Weakens to Lowest Level in Five Years – Japan treasuries tank to 0.68%!
*Bankers Have Choice to Avoid Bonus Caps Under Proposed European Regulation
*Goldman Makes Contrarian Call Predicting Dollar Will WEAKEN Through 2014 – !!!
*Bitcoins Fail Real Money Test as Scandanavia’s Richest Nation Taxes Gains – those two spoiled brats who got rich of ‘their idea’ of Facebook, can’t think anything out!
*U.K. Housing Market Seen at Risk as Carney Tries to Prevent Acceleration
*Las Vegas Sands Abandons $30 Billion Spanish Casino Plan to Focus on Asia – !!!
*Ukraine Riots Flash Buy Signal to Foreigners Piling Into Local Bond Market – ???
*Irish Property Owner Smyth Seeks Rebirth as Nation Exits Bailout – Erin go bragh!!!
*Preschooler Rape Case Belies Justice for India Women Born to be Assaulted – sick!
*Budget Deal Passed by U.S. House Eases Spending Cuts both Parties Dislike – a start?
*Senators Talk All Night as Republicans Protest Rules Change for Nominees – sure, and guess what, McConnell, Hatch and McCain: you thought it was good when majority!
*China Plans to Tackle Surge in Local Government Debt While Pushing Reforms
*What Conditions Does It Take to Get a Bank to Plead Guilty? Jonathon Weil View !!!
Thursday’s Market Summary:
What did they say when the Dow closed above 16k? Doesn’t matter, not one iota! It was a mini-bubble as Robert Schiller said! Note the weaker the market gets the more the volume level stays above average…especially on trades on the NYSE floor! Biggest loser, or the goat…was the Dow, -0.7% vs -0.8%, followed by the S&P 500 -0.4% vs -1.1% (TB likes the Indy 500 better!). ‘Best’ were Dow Transports FLAT but lost 1.6% Wednesday and tied for being ‘goat.’ Dow Utilities -0.1% BUT vs -0.9% vs -1.1% vs -0.5% vs -1.2%! The Russell 2000 was only ‘winner’ +0.2% vs being the goat -1.6%! Dow The two Nasdaq indices lost 1.3% Wednesday and now -0.1%/-0.3% respectively.
Repeating: The next FIVE days leading up to the final options expiration of the year will be highly volatile! How will next Friday go? Dunno…do you?
The VIX held on to Wednesday’s gains and had a session high of 16.09!!! Highest since 10/16!!! – after falling sharply last Friday and Monday from 14.09 to 13.50 – then rose 10.9% Wednesday and added another .12 yesterday, closing at 15.54. NYSE Volume remained at an average 3.37B shares vs 3.48B vs 3.08B vs 3.11B vs 3.13B. The 12-month low of 1.59B shares was 10/29! Real NYSE Volume rose slightly but this on another down day to an above average 753M shares vs 741M vs 633 vs 696M vs 671M.
Advance/Declines and Breadth were negative again. New 52 week highs crumbled to w very weak 83!!! vs 112 vs 199 vs 322 vs 326, while new lows surged to 353!!! vs 239 vs 123 vs 125 vs 149 vs 190…get the picture? They don’t like it!!!
Bonds were weaker and remain near the high yields of August and November: 30yr 3.92-3.93%! Gold slammed and wiped out any chance of a yearend rally just two days after Tuesday’s rally to $1267.50, highest since 11/20! Four days ago it printed a new low of $1210.10! 12/4’s ‘positive key reversal’ off that low has been rejected as was the prior one! Crude was about even but after giving back virtually all of Tuesday’s gains! Eight days ago it had a new low of $91.77 – lowest since 6/3! Gas: TB paid $2.87 last night!
The Nasdaq 100 lost another 9 points vs -45 vs -2 vs +12 vs +26.5vs -5 vs -3.7 vs -2…conflicted? Breadth was -7:3 vs -11:1!!! vs 1:1 vs -9:5 vs +4.8:1. Just four members lost more than one index point, while only FB gained a point (+4!): MSFT -2.9 vs -3.7 vs +4.2 vs +2.3 vs +2.7 vs -7 vs +4.7; GOOG -1.8 vs -1.8; CSCO -1.8; FB +4. Not in the hunt but…APPL -0.7 vs -3.4 vs n/a vs +5.2 vs-6.4. Trendless!
Dow 30 -0.7% vs -0.8% vs -0.3% vs FLAT vs +1.3%! Dow Transports flat vs -1.6%! vs -0.7% vs +0.4% vs +0.6%; Russell 2000 +0.2% vs -1.6%! vs -0.9% vs -0.2% vs +0.8%; Dow Utilities -0.1% vs -0.9% vs -1.1% vs -0.5% vs +1.1% vs -0.9%; S&P 500 -0.4% vs -1.1%! vs -0.3% vs +0.2% vs +1.1%; Nasdaq Composite -0.1% vs -1.4%! vs -0.2% vs +0.2% vs +0.7%; NDQ 100 -0.3% vs -1.3%! vs -0.1% vs +0.3% vs +0.8%.
*NYSE Volume slipped to a slightly below average3.37B shares vs 3.48B vs 3.08B vs 3.11B vs 3.13B vs 3.32B vs 3.6B vs 3.44B vs 3.08B vs 1.59B (12-month low). The record high (?) is 4.82B shares on Q3 end of quarter while 11/29’s 1.59B is weakest of 2013, replacing 1.96B as the low). REAL NYSE Volume rose, again on a down day, to a well above average 753M shares, highest since 11/26, vs 741vs 633M vs 480M vs 674M. Since 11/11 the high is 828M shares on 11/26! The 12-month average is 722M shares. The average since 6/28’s 1.75B share day is just 695M shares, ranging from 482M to 2.025B shares on 9/20. This year there have been just NINE 1B+ share sessions! There have been 38 800M+ shares in 2013: 16 up, 19 down, three mixed.
*New 52 week highs have ranged from 33-864. They continued their slide to a WEAK 83!!! vs 112! vs 199 vs 322 vs 326. Recent high is a super-strong 890!!! New lows SURGED to 353!!! vs 239! Recent low is 35! A bow shot!!!
- Advance/Declines were negative: -1.4x vs -4x! vs -1.5x vs 1:1 vs +2.6x (recent range -17.5x to +6x) on NYSE and -1.1x vs -3.3x! vs -1.9x vs -1.4x vs +2.1x (recent -4x!!! to +3.8x). Breadth was similar: -1.4x vs -6x!!! vs -1.5x vs +1.7x vs +2.4x (recent -18.6x!!! to +7.2x!!!) on NYSE and -1.3x vs -3.6x! vs -1.1x vs 1:1 vs +1.8x (recent -12.8x to +6.5x).
- NYSE Financials fell by 0.4% vs -1.3%! vs -0.3% vs -1% vs +1.3%. BofA 2nd most active: flat??? vs -2%!!! vs -0.1% vs +0.2% vs +0.8% vs -1.3%, remaining at $15.25. 11/25’s 12-month high was $15.98, highest since 6/1/10. How were financials so weak when components were up??? Brokers +0.3% vs -1% vs flat vs flat vs +1.6%; KBW Banks +0.5% vs -1.4%! vs -0.3% vs +0.3% vs +1.4% vs -1%; Nasdaq Banks +0.6% vs -1.2% vs -0.9% vs -0.4% vs +1.7%
- Volatility (S&P VIX) rose modestly following Wednesdays 10.9% surge to close at 15.54 +.12. Session high however was a HUGE 16.07 with a 15.21 low! It is well above the 40/50/200 day m/a’s: 13.46/14.25/14.33!!! The recent range is 11.83-21.01!!! Since March 11th the average has been just 14.44…way below the five year average of 23.32~~~ and the It peaked at 22.79 on 12/28/12…ytd the range is 11.05 (3/14) to 21.92 (6/24)!
Bonds closed weaker…again and have not been able to recovered from Wednesday’s pounding – the fourth time since last August when the ‘tapering talk’ began – closing at 3.89% -3/16 on the 30 yr while the 10 yr closed at 2.88% -1/4. Slightly higher overnight: 10 yr Treasury 2.87% +1/8 (recent range 1.63% to 2.99%), and the 30 yr 3.88% +1/4 (recent range 2.67% to 3.92%). The long TIP is 1.59% +5/16. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5. NOTE recent high yield: 1.63%! Libor update: 0.244% 3 mos, 0.345% 6 mos. (both above record lows!). Foreign bond yields mostly lower: Germany 1.83% -1; UK 2.89% -1; France 2.43% -1; Italy 4.10% –; Spain 4.10% +1; Portugal 5.98% -2; Greece 8.58% +1. Recently: 7.71% – 12.57%. Japan 0.69% +4!!!
Gold was SLAMMED and all bets are off on a chance of a yearend rally with a low of $1222.60 before closing at $1224.90 -$32.30!!! This, two days after trading to $1267.50, highest since 11/20. Last Friday’s low was $1210.10, lowest since 6/28. Recent high is $1375.40 on 9/19. 6/27’s intraday low was $1179.40 – lowest since at least 2011 and critical support. $1300 remains psychological resistance with major res at the 40 day ($1282!) and the 50 day ($1285!), dropping again. Major resistance at $1375, the 9/19 high. The 200 day is a $1373. Overnight it is little changed but only after trading down to $1219.50, and is now $1229.50 +$4.60, what rally?
Crude was little changed in a narrow range…told you Tuesday’s surge was a fluke. It closed at $97.50 +.06. Note the double top at the high of $98.75 not seen since 10/22. On 11-27 it printed a new low of $91.77, lowest since 6/3!!! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 was $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! It has lost momentum from 9/18’s surge to $108.49. 9/19’s session high was $108.99! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. It remains above the 40 day m/a ($95.71!) and slightly above the 50 day (97.04!), but both are dropping AND major support! The 200 day is $98.65, and very major resistance! 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is a tad lower at $97.01 -.49 – back below 50 day – with a low of $96.93!!!
Global stocks higher (ex-India/Korea), but losing over the two days? UK +0.2% vs -0.5% vs +0.3% vs -0.5% vs – vs +0.5%; France +0.3% vs -0.1% vs +0.8% vs -0.7% vs – ; Germany +0.1% vs -0.4% vs +0.1% vs -0.8% vs +0.4%; Japan +0.4% vs -1.1% vs -0.6% vs -0.3% vs +2.3%!; Hang Seng +0.1% vs -0.5% vs -1.7%! vs -0.3% vs +0.3%; Korea -0.3% vs -0.5% vs -0.8% vs -0.4% vs +1%!; India -1% vs -1.2%! vs -0.4% vs -0.3% vs +1.6%! U.S. stock index futures little changed: DOW +13; SPX +3; NDQ +10
Some random thoughts:
Listening to John Boehner chastising anyone against the vote sounded like his usual tirade until I realized he wasn’t talking to the Dems! Meanwhile the GOP Senate is bellyaching about the Nuclear Option…the one McConnell, McCain, Hatch liked when they were the majority. Call it what it really is: The Common Sense Option and get on with the people’s business, okay???
TB received this from a friend: “Jang Song-Thaek, Kim Jong Un's uncle and formerly the 2nd most powerful person in North Korea, oh and probably the only person who could have successfully pulled off a coup. Stripped of all posts and expelled from the Workers' Party for criminal acts including mismanagement of the state financial system,
womanizing and alcohol abuse - and executed.
I am curious if the Washington Post will do a comparative expose with US leadership in D.C.” – to which TB replied:
The comparison pales as Obama, while some don’t like him, is not a crazed dictator, but it would be a start. Perhaps we could then start over with a House with redistricted and cut in half. How is it that Congress has a 9% approval rating but 90% of incumbents are reelected? ‘Splain it to me, Lucy!
Have a great weekend!!!