12/11/13…no commentary today, banks own Congress!

Joke of the Day from the Friar’s Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: I wouldn’t mind paying taxes if I knew they were going to a friendly country.” – Dick Gregory  

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “When people are free to do as they please, they usually imitate one another.” – from the former longshoreman turned blind, Eric Hoffer

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Stocks in U.S. Fall While Gasoline Leads Commodities Lower With Crude Oil- told you thought yesterday’s rise was due to Saudi production cut over Iraq.

*Wall Street Exhales as Volcker Rule Stops Short of Banks’ Biggest Concern – if you don’t see this and think Congress is corrupted there is no salvation for you, or us!

*JPMorgan’s Dimon Says Banks to Reprice Products on Capital-Increase Rules – see how many ways they have to beat you? Bastards!  Sell JPM…in protest!

*Jobless Americans Losing Benefits Threatens to Muddle Fed Message on Rates – See!

*Home Depot Forecasts 2014 Profit Growth That Trails Analysts’ Estimates  

*BMW Said to Consider Building Auto Engines in North America for First Time-Mexico?

*Paul Volcker Sas He Didn’t Help Writre Bank Regulation that Bears His Name – DUH – if he had it would work!!!

*Era of Lucrative Debt Traders at Banks Fades as Credit Suisse Sees Exits – Goodbye!

*Budget Negotiators Tout Deal Easing U.S. Spending Cuts Amid GOP Ire – Wake up!

*Obamacare Heath-Insurance Enrollment Exceeds 250,000 People in November – Yawn!

*Sign-Language Interpreter for Mandela Memorial Is Accused of Being a Fake – !

 

Tuesday’s Market Summary:

Face it, Friday was a fluke!!! More weirdness yesterday that ended with the Dow busting 15k – in the wrong direction! Once again, Dow Utilities were the goat, -1.1% vs -0.5% vs -1.2%! Dow Transports were off 0.7% vs +0.4% when it was best performer. The Russell 2000 slumped 0.9% vs -0.2% vs +0.9%. The rest were off 0.1-0.3%…including the perplexing NYSE Financials.

Still setting up for Friday the 13th – then options expiry, the following Friday! VIX rose to 13.91 +.42 but not before hitting 14.22…TB doesn’t hear any fat lady singing, do you?

NYSE Volume was stable and remains WEAJK at 3.08B shares vs 3.11B vs 3.13B vs 3.32B vs 3.6B vs 3.44B vs 3.08B. The 12-month low of 1.59B shares on 10/29! Meanwhile, Real NYSE Volume, which was coming off a 12-month low of just 474M shares on 10/29 slipped to a weak 633 vs 696M shares (reported yesterday as 480M as closing volume hadn’t been updated) vs 671M vs 700M vs 756M vs 770M vs 657M.

Advance/Declines and Breadth were NEGATIVE. New 52 week highs shrunk to 199 vs  322 vs 326 vs 145 vs 153 vs 151 vs 331, while new lows were stable at 123 vs 125 vs 149 vs 190 vs 126 vs 132 vs 108.

Bonds did little and remain close to the highs of August and November: 30yr 3.92-3.93%! Gold closed STRONG at $1261.10 +$26.90 with a session high of $1267.50, both highest since 11/20! AND two days after putting in a new low of $1210.10! Remember last Wednesday was a positive key reversal after printing $1210.80, lowest since $1187.90 on 6/28, the lowest since July 2010! Crude also closed strong at $98.51 +$1.17 AND with a high of $98.75, both highest since 10/22! This too six days after setting a new low of $91.77 – lowest since June 3rd! he record high of $114.83, courtesy of JPM/MS/GS’s manipulation (not necessarily in that order was on 5/2/11), while the low since on 10/4/11 was $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Overnight it hit $98.75, creating a ‘double top’ and now resistance along with the 200 day (98.59)!

The Nasdaq 100 lost 2 points vs +12 vs +26.5vs -5 vs -3.7 vs -2 vs -7 (would have been -16 if APPL hadn’t saved the day). Breadth was 1:1 vs -9:5 vs +4.8:1. Apple missed the cut and was off slightly as were four others that lost more than one index point, while five gained one point: MSFT +4.2 vs +2.3 vs +2.7 vs -7 vs +4.7 vs +2.4 vs +3.9 vs -2.2; GILD -3.2 vs +1.6 vs +1.1 vs +1; SBUX -1.6; MDLZ -1; FB +2.3 vs +1.5; BIDU +2; GOOG +1.6 vs +2 vs +3.1; YHOO/AMZN +1.2.

Dow 30 -0.3% vs FLAT vs +1.3%! vs -0.4% vs -0.2%; Dow Transports -0.7% vs +0.4% vs +0.6% vs flat vs -0.4%; Russell 2000 -0.9% vs -0.2% vs +0.8% vs +0.1% vs -0.2%; Dow Utilities -1.1% vs -0.5% vs +1.1%!?! vs -0.9% vs +0.2%; S&P 500 -0.3% vs +0.2% vs +1.1% vs -0.4% vs -0.1%; Nasdaq Composite -0.2% vs +0.2% vs +0.7% vs -0.1% vs flat; NDQ 100 -0.1% vs +0.3% vs +0.8% vs -0.2% vs +0.1%.

*NYSE Volume was stable at a very weak 3.08B shares vs 3.11B vs 3.13B vs 3.32B vs 3.6B vs 3.44B vs 3.08B vs 1.59B (12-month low). The record high (?) is 4.82B shares on Q3 end of quarter while 11/29’s 1.59B is weakest of 2013, replacing 1.96B as the low). REAL NYSE Volume rose but to a below average 633M shares from the lowest since 11/29, 480M vs 674M vs 700M vs 756M vs 770M vs 667M vs 474M (new 12-month low) vs 482M (2.06B shares on the Sept. expiry was 3rd highest ever: 6/30/06 3.38B; 7/12/02 2.29B while monthends 474M is the new 12-month low). Compare to last weeks average of a strong 713M shares! Since 11/11 the high has been 828M shares on 11/26 followed by 796M shares on 11/15, and five days with a ‘7’ or higher handle! The 12-month average is 721M shares. The average since 6/28’s 1.75B share day is just 695M shares, ranging from 482M to 2.025B shares on 9/20. This year there have been just NINE 1B+ share sessions! There have been 38 800M+ shares in 2013: 16 up, 19 down, three mixed.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 33-864. They plunged to 199 vs 322 vs 326 vs 145 vs 153 vs 151 vs 332 vs 560. Recent high is a super-strong 890!!! New lows were  stable at 123 vs 125 vs 149 vs 190 vs 126 vs 132 vs 108 vs 35.

  1. Advance/Declines were negative: -1.5x vs 1:1 vs +2.6x vs -1.9 vs -1.6x vs -1.6x vs -2.5x (recent range -17.5x to +6x) on NYSE and -1.9x vs -1.4x vs +2.1x vs -1.2x vs -1.4x vs -1.6x vs -2.5x (recent -4x!!! to +3.8x). Breadth was negative but less so on Nasdaq: -1.5x vs +1.7x vs +2.4x vs -2x vs -1.1x vs -2x vs -2x (recent -18.6x!!! to +7.2x!!!) on NYSE and -1.1x vs 1:1 vs +1.8x vs -1.5x vs +1.1x vs -1.6x vs -1.4x (recent -12.8x to +6.5x).  
  2. NYSE Financials lost 0.3% vs -1% vs +1.3%!?! vs +0.8% vs -0.1% vs -0.9%. BofA most active -0.1% vs +0.2% vs +0.8% vs -1.3% vs +0.6% vs -1.2%, closing at $15.56 -.02, 11/25’s 12-month high was $15.98, highest since 6/1/10. Brokers flat vs flat vs +1.6%!?! vs -0.6% vs flat vs -1%!; KBW Banks -0.3% vs+0.3% vs +1.4% vs -1%! vs +0.4% vs -1.1%! vs -0.2%; Nasdaq Banks -0.9% vs -0.4% vs +1.7%! vs +0.1% vs -0.1% vs -0.9% vs -1.2%!!!
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) closed higher at 13.91 +.42, partially offsetting Friday’s plunge from the highest close since 10/15, while last Wednesday’s session high was 15.71!!! and the session low was 14.22!! It has created an ‘island formation’ from 14.22 (note this was Tuesday’s high!)-15.71, 12/4’s range!?! It is now back above the 40 day and the 50/200 day m/a’s: 1346/14.25/14.33!!! The recent range is 11.83-21.01!!! Since March 11th the average has been just 14.44…way below the five year average of 23.32~~~ and the It peaked at 22.79 on 12/28/12…ytd the range is 11.05 (3/14) to 21.92 (6/24)!

European stocks higher, Asia weaker: UK +0.3% vs -0.5% vs – vs +0.5% vs +0.1% vs -0.5%; France +0.8% vs -0.7% vs – vs +0.3% vs -0.1% vs -0.9% vs -1.8%!!!; Germany +0.1% vs -0.8% vs +0.4% vs +0.7% vs +0.1% vs -1% vs -1.3%!!!; Japan -0.6% vs -0.3% vs +2.3%! vs -0.8% vs +1.5%! vs -2.2%!; Hang Seng -1.7%! vs -0.3% vs +0.3% vs +0.1% vs -0.1% vs -0.8% vs -0.5%; Korea -0.8% vs -0.4% vs +1%! vs -0.2% vs -0.1% vs -1.1% vs -1.1%; India -0.4% vs -0.3% vs +1.6%! vs +0.2% vs +1.2%!!! vs -0.7%. U.S. stock indicies opening lower…again: DOW -37; SPX -1.35; NDQ -12.

Bonds closed little changed and still have not recovered from Wednesday’s pounding for the fourth time since last August when the ‘tapering talk’ began at  3.84% on the 30 yr while the 10 yr closed at 2.81% for the first time since hitting 3% on 9/5! Slightly weaker overnight: 10 yr Treasury 2.82% -3/16 (recent range 1.63% to 2.99%), and the 30 yr 3.86% -5/16 (recent range 2.67% to 3.92%). The long TIP is 1.57% +1/16. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5. NOTE recent high yield: 1.63%! Libor update: 0.244% 3 mos, 0.344% 6 mos. (still just above record lows!). Foreign bond yields edging lower: Germany 1.83% -1; UK 2.87% -1; France 2.42% -1; Italy 4.06% -1; Spain 4.02% -1; Portugal 5.93% -4; Greece 8.53% -6. Recently: 7.71% – 12.57%. Japan 0.64% -1.

Gold closed super strong after trading to $1267.50, highest since 11/20 at $1261.10 +$26.90!!!!. Last Friday’s low was $1210.10, lowest since 6/28. Recent high is $1375.40 on 9/19. 6/27’s intraday low was $1179.40 – lowest since at least 2011 and critical support. $1300 remains psychological resistance with major res at the 40 day ($1285!) and the 50 day ($1289!), slipping. Major resistance at $1375, the 9/19 high. The 200 day is a $1377. Overnight it is little changed at $1259.60 -$1.50 in an inside session.

Crude also closed strong at $98.51 +$1.17 with a high of $98.75 not seen since 10/22,   and has been up 5 of last 6 sessions since posting a new low of $91.77, lowest since 6/3!!! The record high of $114.83, courtesy of JPM/MS/GS’s manipulation (not necessarily in that order) was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 was $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! This is the first time it has shown any strength since 9/18’s surge to $108.49. 9/19’s session high was $108.99! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. It is above the 40/50 day m/a’s ($95.94!/97.31!), both still dropping AND major support! The 200 day is close at ($98.59), and very major resistance! 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is lower at $98.04 -.47 with a session high of $98.75, now a double top and low of $97.89 – first time above the 200 day since 10/22!

 

Some random thoughts:

Had a busy morning and running very late…have a great day!

TB

 

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