12/4/13…a votre sante (to your health)

TB’s Riddle of the Day: What are the twelve days of Christmas? Black Friday, Small Business Saturday, Skip-Church Sunday, Cyber Monday, Giving Tuesday (how did that sneak in?…Red Cross is putting a damper on commercialism! And on and on…

Today’s Joke of the Day from the Friar’s Club Encyclopedia of Jokes “Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, ,diagnosing it incorrectly, and applying the wrong remedy.” – Groucho Marx…even more true when the object is embarrassment!

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Measure not the work until the day’s out and the labor done.” – Elizabeth Barrett Browning…sensible, doesn’t sound like she was fun at parties.

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Deutsche Bank Gets Biggest Penalty as EU Fines Six Firms Over Rate Rigging!!!

*S&P 500 Futures Fall With Bonds, European Stocks on ADP Employment Report

*Companies in U.S. Boosted Payrolls Last Month by Most in a Year, ADP Says – so???

*UBS, Barclays Dodge Combined $4.3 Billion in fines From EU on Rate Rigging – ugh!

*Netherlands to Begin BlackRock-Led Auction of ING’s U.S. Mortgage Bonds

*Cyber Holiday Saless Reach Record as U.S. Shoppers Snub Stores for Internet – as TB said yesterday this is a disaster for the economy…think about it!

*World’s Biggest Pension Fund Sees Bank of Japan Missing 2% Inflation Goal

*Draghi Says Europe No Japan as Crisis Shoppers Savor Deflationary Bargains

*China Offers Japan Talks on Plane Safety in Defense Zone as Biden Meets XI

*Detroit Bankruptcy Decision Shows Retirees Can’t Count on Public Pensions – !!!

Tuesday’s Market Summary:

It keeps getting worser and worser. Will yesterday (“all my troubles started yesterday”), be the last 16k print for the Dow of 2013? Don’t forget Friday the 13th is coming…but hey, this is no time to be superstitious, right?

NYSE Volume rose to an almost average 3.44B shares from 3.08B and the 12-month low of 1.59B shares last Friday! Meanwhile, Real NYSE Volume, also coming off a 12-month low just 159M shares Friday to a near average 657M shares came in at a strong 770m shares or 50M above the 12-month average!

The only index to close in the green was the forlorn Dow Utilities which gained 0.6%, while Dow Transports were the goat -1% vs +0.3%. The Nasdaq 100 lost just 0.1% but had it not been for Apple it would have lost 1.1%! – this applies to the Composite and the S&P 500 too, so don’t think of this as a minor selloff…it wasn’t. It was a shot across the bow!

Note that daily highs on the Dow have been above 16k every day since 11/15! That streak may have just come to an end. Also the number of up days since is 10 with now FIVE losing sessions, 11/19-20-29, and 12/2-3!

Can we hold on until 12/31, and if so, why???

Advance/Declines and Breadth were both negative for a second day following just two weakly positive sessions. New 52 week highs were nearly halved again to 151 vs 331 vs 560, while new lows rose again to 132 vs 108 vs 35 vs 64 vs 111. VIX not only closed higher but closed a gap down from 10/16-17 and had a high of 15.06 before settling in at 14.55 +.32, while the low was still 14.43. Remember TB’s warning about ‘13’! now 15!

Bonds barely rose and are off again overnight and nearing the highs of August and November: 3.92-3.93%! Gold closed about a buck lower but after printing $1214.60, lowest since 7/5. $1187.90 on 6/28 is the lowest since July 2010! Crude closed very strong for a second day at $96.06 +$2.20,  two days after a new low of $91.77 – lowest since June 3rd, with a session high of %96.83, highest since 10/31! It is up another $1 overnight. The record high of $114.83, courtesy of JPM/MS/GS’s manipulation (not necessarily in that order was on 5/2/11), while the low since on 10/4/11 was $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!!

The Nasdaq 100 lost just 2 points vs -7 but would have been -16 if APPL hadn’t saved the day vs +17 vs +25 vs +18 vs +5.5 vs +19 by -2:1 vs -2:1 vs 1:1 vs +7:3 vs +1.8:1 vs -1.8:1 vs +3.2:1 vs +6.6:1. Five members lost more than a point, while just two   gained more than a point: AMZN -3.1; GILD -2.9; BIIB -1.1; CELG -1.2; MSFT +2.4 vs +3.9 vs -2.2; APPL +12.3!?! vs -3.9 vs +8.2!!! vs +9.9!!! vs +7.8!!! vs +3.2; TSLA +2.2

Dow 30 -0.6% vs -0.5% vs -0.1% vs +0.2% vs flat; Dow Transports -1% vs +0.3% vs -0.3% vs +0.6% vs -0.1%; Russell 2000 -0.5% vs -1.2%!!! vs +0.1% vs +0.6% vs +0.9%; Dow Utilities +0.6%! vs -0.4% vs flat vs -0.4% vs -0.9%; S&P 500 –0.3% vs -0.3% vs 0.1% vs +0.3% vs flat; Nasdaq Composite -0.2% vs -0.4% vs +0.4% vs +0.7% vs +0.6%; NDQ 100 –0.1% vs -0.2% vs +0.5% vs +0.7% vs +0.5%.

*NYSE Volume rose sharply for a 2nd day to an average 3.44B shares vs 3.08B vs 1.59B – 12-month low, vs 2.6B vs 3.27B vs 2.98B. Since 11/11 the average has been just 3.0B shares – that is weak!!! The record high (?) is 4.82B shares on Q3 end of quarter while 11/29’s 1.59B is weakest of 2013, replacing 1.96B as the low). REAL NYSE Volume rose to a strong 770M shares vs 667M vs 474M (new 12-month low) vs 482M (lowest since 7/3, a half day!) from a STRONG 828M vs 626M vs 607M (2.06B shares on the Sept. expiry was 3rd highest ever: 6/30/06 3.38B; 7/12/02 2.29B while Friday’s 474M is the new 12-month low). Since 11/11 the high has been 828M shares on 11/26 followed by 796M shares on 11/15, now just three days with a ‘7’ or higher handle! The 12-month average is 721M shares. The average since 6/28’s 1.75B share day is just 694M shares, ranging from 482M to 2.025B shares on 9/20. This year there have been just NINE 1B+ share sessions! There have been 38 800M+ shares in 2013: 16 up, 19 down, and now three mixed.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 33-864. They were halved again to 151 vs 332 vs 560 vs 602 vs 456. Recent high is a super-strong 890!!! New lows rose sharply to 132 vs 108 vs 35 vs 64 vs 111 vs 111 vs 88.

  1. Advance/Declines were negative for a 2nd day and have been very weak: -1.6x vs -2.5x vs +1.2x vs +1.7 vs +1.3x (recent range -17.5x to +6x) on NYSE and -1.6x vs -2.5x vs +1.6x vs  +2.4x vs +1.8x (recent -4x!!! to +3.8x). Breadth was similar: -2x vs -2x vs +1.1x vs +1.7x vs 1:1 (recent -18.6x!!! to +7.2x!!!) on NYSE and -1.6x vs -1.4x vs +1.5x vs +2.6x vs +1.4x (recent -12.8x to +6.5x).  
  2. NYSE Financials fell 0.9% vs -0.4% vs -0.1% vs +0.4% vs flat. BofA most active -1.2%!!! vs -0.6% vs -0.1% vs -0.3% vs +0.4% vs +1.1%, closing at $15.54 -.19, while last Monday’s new 12-month high was $15.98, highest since 6/1/10.. Brokers -1%! vs -0.1% vs flat vs0.1% vs +0.4%; KBW Banks -1.1%! vs -0.2% vs -0.1% vs +0.3% vs -0.3%; Nasdaq Banks -0.9% vs -1.2%!!! vs flat vs +0.7% vs 0.5%.
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) surged for a 3rd day to 14.55 +.32, with a session high of 15.04!!! Not only rising but closed gap down from 10/16-17!!! Also it broke above all three m/a’s! The recent range is 11.83-21.01!!! Since March 11th the average has been just 14.44…way below the five year average of 23.32~~~ and the 40/50/200 day: 13.89/14.32/14.38!!! It peaked at 22.79 on 12/28/12…ytd the range is 11.05 (3/14) to 21.92 (6/24)!

Global stocks WEAK: UK -0.5% vs -0.7% vs +0.3% vs -0.4% vs +0.3%; France -0.9% vs -1.8%!!! vs +0.1% vs -0.3% vs +0.5%; Germany -1% vs -1.3%!!! vs +0.1% vs flat vs +0.9%; Japan -2.2%! vs +0.6% vs flat vs -0.4% vs0.4%; Hang Seng -0.8% vs -0.5% vs +0.7% vs +0.4% vs +0.5%; Korea -1.1% vs -1.1% vs -0.7% vs flat vs +0.3%; India -0.7% vs -0.2% vs +0.5% vs +1.4%! vs flat; U.S. stock futures lower: DOW -25; SPX -4.20; NDQ -7.50.

Bonds posted modest gains yesterday but remain weak, worse overnight: 10 yr Treasury 2.80% -3/16 (recent range 1.63% to 2.99%), and the 30 yr range 2.67% to 3.92%, 3.87% -3/8. The long TIP is 1.57% -3/8. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5. Recent high yield: 1.63%! Libor update: 0.242% 3 mos, 0.345% 6 mos. (both just above their new record lows!). Foreign bond yields higher across the board: Germany 1.77% +5; UK 2.86% +4; France 2.36% +3; Italy 4.13% +5; Spain 4.16% +2; Portugal 5.85% +6; Greece 8.63% +7. Recently: 7.71% – 12.57%. Japan 0.62%.

Gold waffled around unchanged, then hit another new low of $1214.60, lowest since 7/5 before closing at $1220.80 -$1.10. A week ago the high was $1293.80! Recent high was $1375.40 on 9/19. 6/27’s intraday low was $1179.40 – lowest since at least 2011 and critical support. $1300 remains psychological resistance with major res at the 40 day ($1293!) and the 50 day ($1298!), both still dropping. Major resistance at $1375, the 9/19 high. The 200 day is a distant $1387. Overnight it is weaker at $1212.90  -$7.90!!! Session low $1210.80 also back to 7/5!

Crude had a 2nd positive day just three days following a new low of $91.77, lowest since 6/3!!! The record high of $114.83, courtesy of JPM/MS/GS’s manipulation (not necessarily in that order) was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 was $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! It closed at $96.06 +$2.22, with a session high of $96.83, highest since 0/31! First time it has shown any strength since 9/18’s surge to $108.49. 9/19’s session high was $108.99! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. It remains below the 40/50 day m/a’s ($96.63!/97.91!), both still dropping and major resistance! The 200 day ($98.45) is back above the 40/50 day!!! Thus very major resistance! 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is higher again at $97.17 +$1.13 with a session high of $97.53 – highest since 10/31/// O/n OPEC agreed to hold prices stable!

Some random thoughts:

The GOP is dying…of a starvation of ideas from within. All they can do is complain and ya know what? Their soundbites are so scripted as to be boring and meaningless. To wit:

*We were never consulted on the Afforadable Care Act (only they refer to it only as Obamacare). Why, Mr. Boehner? Because you didn’t want it…none of it. You, the party that let Dubya’s Medicare Part D go through after derailing negotiation of prescription drugs prices and failing to fund it WHICH is what pushed Medicare into the red – not the program itself as you are so fond of doing…fortunately you didn’t listen to him on letting Americans ‘invest’ part of their social security benefits although thanks to both parties the trust funds (read IOU’s) are earning zero, zip, zilch.

*You chose to repeal rather than replace or fix. True, the system is flawed but you did nothing to help it following the heed of Sen. McConnell whose sole goal was to make Obama a one-term president. Yet, despite him winning a majority, you have done everything you can to thwart anything he wants: the House wasting time on passing dozens of bills to kill the ACA, knowing it would go nowhere, while the Senate lets extremists filibuster simple nominations for cabinet positions and judges, not on qualifications but because Obama wants it. Do you think Americans are blind???

Remember national healthcare was a republican idea…until of course the Clintons and then Obama were for it. That is how transparent your actions are. Right Mr. Romney?

Enough, because if you don’t ‘get it’ by now you never will. You will allow our broken healthcare system to impoverish a large percentage of Americans while ignoring the costs to society – especially state and local governments – who have to absorb the cost of welfare moms taking their kids to the ER for an ear infection. Now THAT is sick!

Oh, and stop talking about Massachusetts and look to Minnesota which has a healthcare program that actually works. For one thing all healthcare and hospitals have to be non-profit! This despite United Healthcare being headquartered here.

Unless we wrest control of health insurance from the states and eliminate all those needless subsidiaries, we are doomed to failure on providing all Americans adequate healthcare.

There, TB said it! You decide!

Have a great day!

TB

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