11/26/13…I don’t want no stinkin’ job!

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Building Permits in U.S. Rose 6.2% in October to 1.03 Million Rate

*London Gold Fix Draws Scrutiny Amid Knowledge Tied to Daily Trade Eruption – but of course! It’s all rigged: Libor, Crude, Gold, and of course, stocks! Not always so!

*Stocks in Europe Drop for First Time in Three Days as Euro Gains With Oil

*Men’s Wearhouse Turns Tables on Jos. A. Bank With $1.54 Billion Buyout Bid

*Carney Says BOE Isn’t Rushing to Raise Rates as Labor Market Remains Slack – !!!

*FDIC’s Hoenig to Consider Softening U.S. Bank Leverage rule He Championed L

*Hedge Funds See Repeat of Yen Weakness That Earned George Soros $1 Billion – !

*Take-Two Interactive to Buy 12 Million Shares Held by Icahn at $16.93 Each

*Aerospace to Medical Supplies Using Asian Bonded Labor Risk U.S. Violation L

*High-Frequency Traders Meet Nightmare on Elm Street With Hunsader’s Nanex

*Merkel Coalition Talks Approach Endgame After 5-Week Wait for Government

*DeBlasio Facing Intraparty Tests as Democrats Retake New York’s City Hall

*Scotland’s Nationalists Want Independent State Keeping Pound by March 2016

*Britons Advised to Shut Off Televisions as Campaign for 2015 Begins – here too!

*France to Triple Troops in Central African Republic to Prevent Attrocities – and we thought the Cold War was expensive…too many hot spots and we can’t do it all!

*Obamacare’s Exchange Deadline May Not Offer an Expected Answer – Zzzzzzz

*Obama Sweats Details with Nightly Reading to Track On-Time Health Site Fix

Monday’s Market Summary:

A funny thing happened on the way to another record high on the Dow, just 41 points above Friday’s. Note that the daily highs have been above 16k every day since 11/15!

The number of straight up days has extended to 9 with just one 9 point loss on 11/19. Pretty wimpy rally though as yesterday the Dow rose just 8 points or 0.1%, Best performer was Dow Transports up just 0.3%, followed by the Nasdaq 100 +0.2%, the rest were +/- 0.1% in what was an up down up down more or less even close day.

To those of you who mock TB on volume consider this: amid the record highs, etc. NYSE Volume shrunk to 2.98B shares from just 3.05B shares – lowest since Vets Day! …and with Thanksgiving coming don’t expect much more for the remainder of the week.. Meanwhile REAL NYSE Volume barely rose to a weak 626M shares from 607M on Friday. Ah, but this was on even lower volume than Thursday’s 3.25B shares: 3.05B – almost a 2 billion handle. Since November 11, there have been exactly ZERO 700M+ sessions…winter doldrums??? Or just plain apathy?

Advance/Declines and Breadth were negative except Nasdaq A/D’s which somehow were positive at a weak +1.1x. New 52 week highs sharply higher again at 540 vs 477 vs 348 vs 170 vs 171 vs 514, while new lows rebounded to 111 vs 88 vs 123 vs 118 vs 93 vs 56. VIX rose but in a tight range closing at 12.79 +.53 – watch for a 13 print again!.  

Bonds also eked out a slight rally but the long end remains precariously close to the 8/21-11/20 3.92-3.93% levels!!! Gold closed slightly lower at $1241.60 -$3 and has now lost ($43 in three days!), AND with another new low print of $1226.40, again, lowest print since July 8th. Crude was lackluster yet again closing at $94.09 vs Friday’s $95.44, highest since 11/1 – and a high print of $95.63??? Manipulated?

The Nasdaq 100 rose by just 5.5 points vs 19 or 0.2% vs +0.6% vs +1.1% with 1.7:1 DECLINING vs +3.2:1 vs +6.6:1. Just FOUR members gained more than a point while two lost more than a point: GOOG +3.4;APPL +3.2 vs -1 vs +4.9 va -3.6 vs -0.3 vs -5.2; BIIB +2.2 vs +7 vs +1..3; AMZN +1.8 vs +1.4 vs +2.6 vs -1; FB -2.3; EBAY -1.5!

In case you didn’t see the plethora of negative comments on Twitter…obviously Barron’s was not all a-twitter…it closed at $39.06 -$1.94, a new low! Worse with a new low of $38.80!

Dow 30 +0.1% vs +0.3% vs +0.7% vs -0.4% vs -0.1%; Dow Transports +0.3% vs +0.4% vs +1.1% vs -0.3% vs -1%; Russell 2000 flat vs +0.5% vs +1.8%! vs –0.1% vs -0.3%; Dow Utilities +0.1% vs -0.1% vs +0.1% vs -1.4% vs -0.8%; S&P 500 -0.1% vs +0.5% vs +0.8% vs –0.4% vs -0.2%; Nasdaq Composite +0.1% vs +0.6% vs +1.2% vs –0.3% vs -0.4%; NDQ 100 +0.2% vs +0.6% vs +1.1% vs –0.3% vs -0.3% vs -1%!

*NYSE Volume plunged through 3B to a very weak 2.98B shares vs 3.05B vs 3.25B vs 3.1B vs 3.2B. The record high (?) is 4.82B shares on Q3 end of quarter while 2.52B is 4th weakest of 20131.96B is the low). REAL NYSE Volume rose slightly to another weak 626M shares vs 607M vs 665M vs 622M vs 646M (2.06B shares on the Sept. expiry was 3rd highest ever: 6/30/06 3.38B; 7/12/02 2.29B while 482M on 7/3 on a shortened trading session is the 2013 low). Since 11/11 the high has been 796M shares on 11/15, the only day with a ‘7’ handle and the average is just 660M shares! The 12-month average is 723M shares. The average since 6/28’s 1.75B share day is just 696M shares, ranging from 482M to 2.025B shares on 9/20. There have been just EIGHT 1B+ share sessions! There have been 37 800M+ shares in 2013: 16 up, 19 down, and two mixed.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 33-864. They rose again to 540 vs 477 vs 348 vs 170 vs 171. Recent high is a super-strong 890!!! New lows bounced back to 111 vs 88 vs 123 vs 118 vs 93 vs 56.  

  1. Advance/Declines were mixed and minimal: -1.2 x vs +1.6x vs +2.9x vs -2x vs -2.1x vs -1.6x (recent range -17.5x to +6x) on NYSE and +1.1x? vs +1.6x vs +3.3x vs -1.2x vs -1.7x (recent -4x!!! to +3.8x). Breadth was slightly negative: -1.2x vs +1.9x vs +2.7x vs -1.8x vs -2.2x (recent -18.6x!!! to +7.2x!!!) on NYSE and -1.2x vs +1.4x vs +5.2x vs -1.3x vs -1.6x (recent -12.8x to +6.5x).  
  2. NYSE Financials were -0.1% vs +0.4% vs +1.1% vs -0.4% vs -0.2%. BofA most active +1.1%??? vs +0.3% vs +3%! vs -0.4% vs +1.9%, and closing at $ 15.81 +.17, with another new 12-month high of $15.98, highest since 6/1/10. Had not been above $15 since 8/10. C also made the list for a 2nd day, rising 1.7% vs +1.3%!?! GE lost 1.3%! Brokers +0.4% vs +0.5% vs +2.2%! vs +0.3% vs +0.3%; KBW Banks +0.4% vs +2.3% vs +1.5% vs -0.1% vs +0.1%; Nasdaq Banks +0.5% vs +0.8% vs +1.7% vs +0.1% vs -0.2%. Barron’s was al ‘ga-ga’ about financials…apparently not realizing the earnings are largely a result of recaptured reserves for loan offices.
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) remained below 13 for a 3rd day, but rose to 12.789 +.53 with a high of 12.92. The recent range is 11.83-21.01!!! Since March 11th the average has been just 14.44…way below the five year average of 23.32~~~ and the 40/50/200 day: 14.51/14.40/14.36!!! It peaked at 22.79 on 12/28/12…ytd the range is 11.05 (3/14) to 21.92 (6/24)!

Global stocks lower ex-Korea: UK -0.4% vs +0.3% vs -0.2% vs flat vs -0.2%; France -0.3% vs +0.5% vs +0.2% vs 0.3% vs -0.3%; Germany flat vs +0.9% vs flat vs -0.2% vs -0.1%; Japan -0.7% vs +1.5% vs +0.1% vs +1.9%!!! vs -0.3%; Hang Seng flat vs -0.5% vs +0.5% vs -0.5% vs +0.2% vs +2.7%!!!; Korea +0.3% vs +0.5% vs +0.6% vs -1.2%! vs -0.7% vs +1%; India -0.9% vs +1.9% vs -0.1% vs -2%!!! vs -1.2%; U.S. stock futures in another dull trading range: DOW -5; SPX -0.50; NDQ +1.75.

Bonds still struggling back from the abyss…rallying for a third session but remain…WEAK! However the ‘breakdown’ on the 30 year turned out to be a ‘false break’ – at least for now. Slightly better overnight: 10 yr Treasury 2.73% +1/32 (recent range 1.63% to2.99%), and the30 yr range 2.67% to 3.92%, 3.81% +1/8. The long TIP is 1.48% +1/8. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5. Recent high yield: 1.63%! Libor update: 0.237% 3 mos,0.344% 6 mos. (both at or near new record lows!). Foreign bond yields slightly lower: Germany 1.71% -1; UK 2.74% -2; France 2.18% -1; Italy 4.06% -4; Spain 4.15% –; Portugal 5.82% -4; Greece 8.59% +1. Recently: 7.71% – 12.57%. Japan 0.61% -3

Gold hit yet anther new low of $1226.40, lowest since 7/8 before ‘bouncing’ to close at $1241.60 -$3, for a total loss of $43 in the last three sessions. A week ago the high was $1293.80!  Recent high was $1375.40 on 9/19.  6/27’s intraday low was $1179.40 – lowest since at least 2011 and critical support. $1300 remains psychological resistance with major res at the 40 day ($1302) and the 50 day ($1308), both still dropping. Major resistance at $1375, the 9/19 high. The 200 day is a distant $1397. Overnight it is slightly higher at $1245.10 +$3.50.

Crude closed slightly lower in a boring session at $94.09 -.75. Last Tuesday’s session low was $92.43, lowest since 6/4. It has shown no sign of strength since 9/18’s surge to $108.49. 9/19’s session high was $108.99! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. It is way below the 40/50 day m/a’s ($97.82/99.10), both still dropping rapidly and major resistance! The 200 day ($98.53) is now between the 40/50 day!!! Thus very major resistance! 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is quiet at $94.13 +.04.

 

 

Some random thoughts:

…looking for work? Do you even want to bother? Thanks to our highly overpaid CEO’s (a distinction: BIG company CEO’s, not hardworking ones in smaller companies), they can’t bring themselves to give other employees credit…if so, they would diminish their own value and they can’t bear to do that, right).

IF they paid employees more…Wal-Mart take note…they could spend more! The minimum wage should be $14 an hour based on productivity gains, while big company CEO‘s earn 350 times the average – not the least paid employee! In one hour they earn what the average employee earns in a month! How niggardly can they be? Ah, but their boards love them…and the CEO’s of the boards THEY sit on…as they scratch one another’s back and then by raising the ‘average’ CEO pay they can go after another round.

But it is total compensation…not pay that is the issue. When stock options are granted is key…and they do a pretty darned good job of getting them when the price is low. They are also awarded BEFORE the annual earnings are disclosed and thus can be excessive.

Now for what resurrected this discussion. On Friday, Minnesota announce that the unemployment rate had fallen to 4.8% in October from 5.1% in September (both announced the same day because of the federal shutdown). Compared to the U.S. of 7.3% that is swell! Even to all but a couple of States…like North Dakota which stands around 3% but you know why. Note that in September MN lost 8,700 jobs but gained back 9,900 in October…mostly in education while for some reason professional business services and financial declined.

But wait…how do you get a 0.3% drop from that? The new way, just like the federal government: you have more part-time jobs and more people dropping out of the labor pool in favor of collecting welfare etc. If you can’t get ahead by working, why bother?

Part-Time but wanting full-time added in brings unemployment to 11%! The participation rate in jobs stood at 72.1% in MN in Dec. 2007 – currently 70.4% – 29 year low…mirroring the U.S. decline which now stands at just 63%.

What kind of country are we building (sic)? One where the majority of workers are 54 years of age or older…and as it takes more workers to support each retiree, we need more and the birth rate has declined. All the more reason to pass immigration legislation so Mexico can help us take care of our retirees who can’t even earn on their savings. “Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free” is engraved on the Statue of Liberty…that phrase by Emma Lazarus should be considered if we are to remain the great country that we ‘used to be’.

Be thankful…and show it by thinking about those less fortunate!

TB 

Advertisements

2 Comments »

  1. Yarnman said

    TB–In case you missed the interesting read, “Right vs. Left in the Midwest”, in the New York Times Sunday Review, here’s the link:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/24/opinion/sunday/right-vs-left-in-the-midwest.html

    The article contrasts Wisconsin and Minnesota since the last gubernatorial elections in both states, and favors your new home state, Minnesota.

    Happy Thanksgiving! —Yarnman

    • traderbill said

      Thanks, Yarnman…night and day! If I had moved tow Wisconsin from S.F. I would have relocated to MN by now! Bewtween Walker and their Senators, it makes me ill – their total lack of concern for anyone but the wealthy…and in Wisconsin? That’s a pretty small minority!
      Happy Thanksgiving!

RSS feed for comments on this post · TrackBack URI

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: