11/8/13…all a’twitter? Not if you don’t have a job…or a raise!

Today’s Quote from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “You don’t want another Enron? Here’s your law: If a company can’t explain ‘in one sentence’ what it does, it’s illegal.” – Lewis Black

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces smart people into thinking they can’t lose.” – Bill Gates…so true, Bill…so true!!!

*U.S. Sept Consumer Spending +0.2%; Incomes Grow 0.5% – savings 4.9% +0.2%!

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls rose by 204k in October  vs 120k Median Forecast. Revisions to Aug/Sept added combined 60k jobs. Factory Jobs +19k; Construction +11k. Government -8k.

Meanwhile…the Unemployment Rate rose to 7.28% vs 7.235% and worse, the Participation Rate fell to lowest since 1978!!!  Augmented unemployment rate +8.6%, plus marginally employed 13.8% vs 13.6! Some recovery! Right?  Household employment declined by 735k! Hourly Earning rose just 2.2% in October from a year ago!

Market Reaction 9:30am EST: Bonds plunged and continue to fall with the 10 yr off a point and long end off TWO points! This on a distorted report??? Futures were weak then came back a bit and market is now opening higher…again, in what kind of hell?

Dollar gaining , gold off $19 to $1289! Crude slightly higher to $94.56 (I bought gas for $2.95 yesterday!!!). Good luck and ‘happy’ trading!

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Payrolls Jump by 204,000 as U.S.  Weathered Shutdown; Jobless Rate 7.3%

*Treasuries Drop Most in Two Months After Payrolls Gain Exceeds Forecasts

*U.S. Consumer Spending Cooled as Households Boosted Savings Amid Shutdown

*Pimco Said to Place $10 Billion Credit-Default Bet on Gains in U.S. Bonds – ???

*Fed Anxiety Increases as QE Raises Risk of bopnd Losses With Political Cost

*ECB Step Up Clash With Schaeuble on European Plans to Tackle Failing Banks

*UBS Agrees to Buy Back Toxic-Asset Funds Set Up in 2008 for $3.8 Billion

*Deutsche Bank Wins $8 Billion Sebastian London Lawsuit Over Margin Calls – !!!

*Canadian Oil Companies Trailing Peers on Environmental Reporting

*Twitter Resists Frenzied Investors to Escape Replay of Facebook IPO Flop

*Subprime Loans Spur U.S. Auto Sales as Buyers Find Good Job Is Good Enough – but is it??? Student loans and auto loans up…credit card borrowing FLAT!!!

*Iran Agreement in Sight as Kerry Flies to Geneva for Nuclear Program Talks – yes!!!

*Obama Said to Favor Raising U.S. Minimum Wage to $10 Pushed by Democrats – millions in poverty but if he wants it GOP doesn’t. Hey if more people could afford things wouldn’t that be good for economic growth…and tax revenues? Gimme a break!

*Typhoon Haiyan Slams Philippines, Killing at Least Three as Power Fails

*U.S. Said to Announce New Insurance Coverage Rwfules for Mental Ilnesses

Thursday’s Market Summary:

It was a ‘twitter’ kind of day. All the hype as TWTR was priced at $26, opened at $44 and within a half hour hit its high of $50.09 – some fool bought 60k shares at $50…or was it just a hedge fund playing games like ‘one and done’? This of course buoyed the market…except the struggling Nasdaq with the Dow ‘ gapping up’ and rising 50 points to yet another record high in the first 15 minutes…but then, a funny thing happened on the way to the forum: they looked inside the GDP data and saw it wasn’t so hot. An hour later it was underwater and headed steadily down never seeing daylight gain and closed at 15594 -153 points and just five points off the days low. As for Twitter it was a day like all first days for social media: gap up, reach a high early then fall…the close? $44.90 +$18.90…wonder how many of those who got ‘in’ sold in the morning? At 153M shares it was the most active, obliterating BAC and relegating it to second place, turning over the 80.5 million share offering 1.5x. Now what? How about a steady decline until the underwriters, who made over $50 million no longer have to support it, then down…will it fall below the offering price? Could be but note this says nothing about the company and how the stock will perform in the future…look at Facebook, etc. Ya never know.

As for the rest, not even wroth talking about since every index was off by 0.9% (Dow Utilities) or more, the goat being both Nasdaq indices -1.9%, followed closely by the Russell 2000 small cap -1.8%. C’est la vie…you places your bets you takes your chances. Right? Hey, what did you expect on a day that the ECB is concerned about ‘deflation’ risks? Oh, and banks, oil companies, etc. all scamming the system – and the people!

‘all-time’ low? Beats the hell out of ole TB…guess he just doesn’t get the new math!

NYSE Volume soared to a high 4.14B shares vs 3.33B vs 3.48B vs 3.17B, while REAL NYSE Volume surged to 910M shares, matching 10/31, and not seen since 9/20’s third highest all-time 2.06B shares –  vs 704M vs 742M vs 658M shares, lowest since 10/14. Once again HIGH VOLUME, DOWN DAY…is that so hard to understand?

The Nasdaq 100 plunged 1.9% as did the Composite vs down -0.1% vs +0.1% vs 0.2%. Loser outpaced gainers by 13:1!!! At least  a dozen members LOST more than 1 point with just the top FIVE losing a total of 21 of the 64 points!!! Not a single stock gained more than one index point…THINK!!! APPL -6.7 vs -3.9 vs -0.9 vs +5.4 vs -1.9 vs -2.1 vs +6.4 vs +2.6 vs -4.7 vs +5.7 vs +3.8 vs -1.2 vs +10 vs +3.5.; AMZN -5.2 vs -1.2; MSFT -4.7 vs +11.3!!! vs +5.2 vs +1.2; vs +1.2; QCOM -4 vs +1.1; GOOG -3.6. Advance/Declines AND breadth were very negative! New 52 week highs dipped for a 3rd day to 206 vs 228 vs 262 vs 268 vs 194 vs 252 vs 394, while new lows rose to 109 vs 85 vs 83. VIX finally rose sharply closing back above 13  with a high of 14.14 and ended at 13.91 +1.24!!! It has had just two closes below 13 since 8/13!!! Since March 11th the average has been just 14.49…way below the five year’s 23.32~~~ and the 200 day: 14.40!!! Options expiration on the 15th – a setup? Hmmm.

Bonds closed STRONG finally on a day that stocks were worried about the Fed starting to taper again…are we nuts??? 10’s +3/8, 30’s +1-1/8, long TIPS +15/16!!! Gold still see-sawing and closed at $1308.50 -$9.30 – not much BUT on a NEGATIVE key reversal…caution! Crude quiet on an ‘inside’ session closing at $94.20 -.60, following Tuesday’s session low of $93.07 holding, lowest since June 24th!!!

Dow 30 -1% vs +0.8% vs -0.1% vs +0.2% vs +0.5%; Dow Transports -1.4% vs -0.7% vs -0.5% vs +1.2%! vs +1%!; Russell 2000 -1.8% vs -0.5% vs -0.4% vs +1.2%! vs -0.4%; Dow Utilities -0.9% vs +1.3% vs -0.8% vs +0.2% vs +1%!!!; S&P 500 -1.3% vs +0.4% vs -0.3% vs +0.4% vs +0.3%; Nasdaq Composite -1.9% vs -0.2% vs +0.1% vs +0.4% vs +0.1%; NDQ 100 -1.9% vs -0.1% vs +0.1% vs +0.2% vs +0.1%…hmmm.

*NYSE Volume surged to a very high 4.14B shares vs 3.33B vs 3.48B vs 3.17B vs 3.67B vs 3.83B. The record high (?) is 4.82B shares on Q3 end of quarter while 2.52B is 4th weakest of 20131.96B is the low). REAL NYSE Volume also soared to a strong 910M shares vs 704M vs 742M vs 658M, lowest since 10/14, vs 810M vs 892M (2.06B shares also on Sept. expiry was 3rd highest ever (6/30/06 3.38B; 7/12/02 2.29B while 482M on 7/3 in a shortened trading session is the 2013 low). The 12-month average is 724M shares. The average since 6/28’s 1.75B share day, is now 701M shares, ranging from 482M to 2.025B shares on 9/20. There have been just EIGHT 1B+ share sessions! There have now been 36 800M+ shares in 2013: 15 up, 19 down, and two mixed.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 33-864. They slipped again to 206 vs 228 vs 262 vs 268 vs 194 vs 252. Recent high is a super-strong 890!!!New lows rose to 109 vs 85 vs 83 vs 59 vs 84 vs 79 vs 46.  

  1. Advance/Declines were highly negative: -3.5x vs +1.1x vs -2.1x vs +2x vs -1.2x (recent range -17.5x to +6x) on NYSE and -3.4x vs -1.1x vs -1.4x vs +1.9x vs +1.4x (recent -4x!!! to +3.8x). Breadth was worse: -6.4x!!! vs +1.2x vs -2.3x vs +3x vs +1.2x (recent -18.6x!!! to +7.2x!!!) on NYSE and -4.7x!!! vs -1.4x vs 1:1 vs +1.5x vs +1.1x (recent -12.8x to +6.5x).  
  2. NYSE Financials fell by 1.3% vs +0.5% vs -0.7% vs flat vs +0.1% vs -0.8%. BofA 2nd most active to TWTR -1.2%! vs +0.2% vs 0.6% vs +0.1% vs +0.4% vs -1.4%, closing at $13.80 -.16! It has struggled since hitting $15.03 on 8/1 – highest since Jan. 14 and major res. Brokers -1.9% vs +1.2%? vs -0.2% vs +0.5% vs +1%; KBW Banks -1.1% vs +0.3% vs flat vs -0.1% vs +0.2% vs -1.1%; Nasdaq Banks -0.9% vs +0.5% vs +0.1% vs +0.2% vs -0.2% vs -1.1%.
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) SURGED hitting 14.14 before closing at 13.91 +1.24, following just 2 days below 13! Since 8/13! Note in August it surged back on the expiry! The recent range is 11.83-21.01!!! Since March 11th the average has been just 14.49…way below the five year’s 23.32~~~ and the 200 day: 14.40!!! It peaked at 22.79 on 12/28/12…ytd the range is 11.05 (3/14) to 21.92 (6/24)!

Global stocks WEAK: UK -0.7% vs +0.1% vs +0.1% vs -0.6% vs +0.6%; France -1.5%!!! vs +1.2%!!! vs +0.9% vs -0.9% vs +0.5%; Germany -0.8% vs +1.3%!!! vs +0.4% vs -0.5% vs +0.4%; Japan -1% vs -0.8% vs +0.8% vs +0.2% vs closed vs -0.9% vs -1.2% vs +1.2% vs -0.5% vs +2.2% vs -2.8%!!!; Hang Seng -0.6% vs -0.7% vs flat vs -0.7% vs -0.3%; Korea -1% vs -0.5% vs flat vs -0.6% vs -0.7% vs +0.5% vs -1.4%!; India -0.8% vs -0.4% vs -0.4% vs -1.3%! vs closed. U.S. stock futures WEAK following payrolls but off the lows with broad range: DOW -40; SPX -4; NDQ +1.

Bonds closed strong – finally! Long end gaining a point. Only slightly lower overnight until payrolls then POUNDED: 10 yr Treasury 2.72% -1 pt (recent range 2.99% to 1.63%!!!), and the30 yr range 2.67% to 3.90%, 3.81% -1-3/4!!! The long TIP is 1.50% -2 points!!! The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5. Recent high yield: 1.63%! Libor update: 0.239% 3 mos,0.355% 6 mos. Both steady but barely above new record lows!!! Banks remain cautious and loaded with cash!!! Foreign bonds higher  – weak early then plunging on U.S. payrolls?: Germany 1.74% +6; UK 2.76% +9; France 2.21% +6; Italy 4.13% +4; Spain 4.09% +4; Portugal 5.88% +12! Greece 7.97% +12!!! Last Friday’s low of 7.71% was another new low! Recent range now: 7.71%-12.57%. Japan 0.58% flat.

Gold closed slightly lower BUT on a NEGATIVE key reversal (higher high, lower low, close below prior days low, closing at $1308.60 -$9.30. The recent low is $1251 on 10/15 – lowest since 7/10. Recent high was $1375.40 on 9/19.  6/27’s intraday low was $1179.40 – lowest since at least 2011 and critical support. $1300 remains psychological support with major res now at the 40 day ($1319) and the 50 day ($1332). Major resistance at $1375, the 9/19 high. The 200 day is at $1421. Overnight it is weaker at $1291.50 -$17 with a low of $1289.60!!!

Crude was boring with an ‘inside’ session two days after falling to $93.07, lowest since 6/24, closing at $94.20 -.60. It has shown no sign of strength since 9/18’s surge to $108.49. 9/19’s session high was $108.99! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. It is way below the 40/50 day m/a’s ($101.03/102.51), now plunging, and still major resistance! The 200 day ($98.69) is also major resistance. 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight is little changed at $94.26 +.06.

Some random thoughts:

TB is tired of writing and disgusted with events in general. He has often quoted Pogo’s famous line…but now it is fact: “we have met the enemy and they are us.”

Forget everything and enjoy life and your family this weekend…you earned it!

TB

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