11/1/13…it’s later than you think! A RANT!!!

Today’s Quote from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “Did you hear about the dyslexic who committed suicide? He threw himself behind an oncoming train.” anon

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “The truth will set you free. But not until it is finished with you.” – David Foster Wallace – note that he committed suicide…moral?

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Barclays Said to Suspend Chief Currency Dealer Ashton, Two Others in Probe

*RBS Forecasts Loss After Pushing $61 Billion of Toxic Assets Into Bad Bank

*Euro Slides as Italian Bond Yields Drop on ECB Rate-Cut Bets While Copper Advances

*Chrysler’s U.S. Sales Increase Trails Estimates on Delays in Jeep Cherokee

*Economists Cut Fourth-Quarter U.S. Growth Forecast on Government Shutdown

*Global Stocks Cap Biggest Advance in Two Years to Beat Bonds, Commodities

*Sony’s Bond Rating May Be Cut to Junk by Moody’s! – a major fall from grace!

*Tesla’s Stock Rally Hits $4.1 Billion Pothole With Tumble in October – 18% QTD!!!

*JPMorgan Joins Citigroup in Responding to Currency-Exchange Investigations

*Twitter Said to Get More Than Enough Demand to Sell IPO Shares Next Week

*Speedy Lunches Urged at SEC as Union Boss Says Agency Is Tracking Workers

*Snowden Considers Testifying in Germany on NSA If Russian Conditions Met

*Wife Poisoning Husband’s Lover Tests Chemical Weapons Law in Supreme Court

*High Winds, Thunderstorms Pose Potential Travel Problems in U.S. Northeast

Due to Government Shutdown Payrolls for October to be released NEXT Friday, November 8th – well done, GOP extortionists!…ideological fools!

Thursday’s Market Summary:

A second day of weakness in stocks following the ‘faux’ rally. All indices were down from 0.2% (NDQ 100) to 0.8% (NYSE Financials, with most down about 0.4% or more.

Total NYSE Volume rose slightly for a fourth straight session to a slightly above average 3.82B shares vs 3.53B vs 3.33B vs 3.19B vs 3.11B. But do you want to see rising volume on two consecutive down days??? REAL NYSE Volume also surged to a high 908M shares vs below average 687M vs 683M vs 732M vs 670M – finally above two weeks ago’s 892M shares – highest since 9/28’s 2.06B on quarterend. Does this mean ‘real’ investors were selling? You decide!

The Nasdaq 100 was off 0.2% vs -0.2% vs + 0.3% vs flat vs +0.5%. Decliners outpaced by 1.5:1. SEVEN members lost more than 1 point while three gained more than a point: GILD -2.3 vs +4.3 vs +1.2 vs -1.4; AAPL -2.1+6.4 vs +2.6 vs -4.7 vs +5.7 vs +3.8 vs -1.2 vs +10 vs +3.5;  CELG -1.1 vs -1.4; BIIB -1 vs +1.4; CSCO -1; BIDU -1 vs +1.4 vs -1.3; FB +2; AMZN +1.2; EXPE +1

Advance/Declines and Breadth were both negative for a 2nd day. New 52 week highs plunged to 252 vs 394 vs 460 vs 380 vs 500, while new lows rose again to 79 from a weak 46 vs 29 vs 31 vs 34 vs 29! VIX rose slightly again, closing at 13.65 +.24 with an intraday high of 14.02 following a 15.27 print, highest since 10/16! Since hitting 21.34 on 10/9 – close to the 12/28 high of 22.72 and 6/24 high of 21.91.

Bonds closed mostly lower except the  30 yr which gained 1/8. All weaker overnight following payrolls. Gold PLUNGED to $1318.70 before closing at $1323.50 -$25.80!!!  Crude also closed lower with another low of $96.03 before closing at $96.38 -.39.

Dow 30 –0.5% vs -0.4% vs +0.7% vs flat vs +0.4%; Dow Transports –0.5% vs -0.6% vs +0.2% vs +0.4% vs -0.2%; Russell 2000 -.0.5% vs -1.2%! vs +0.4% vs flat vs -0.1%; Dow Utilities -0.6% vs -0.6% vs +0.2% vs -0.3% vs +1%!!!; S&P 500 -0.4% vs -0.5% vs +0.6% vs +0.1% vs +0.4%; Nasdaq Composite -0.3% vs -0.6% vs +0.3% vs -0.1% vs +0.4%; NDQ 100 -0.2% vs -0.2% vs +0.3% vs flat vs +0.5% . No one said it is easy!

*NYSE Volume rose an above average 3.83B shares vs 3.53B vs 3.3B vs 3.19B vs 3.11B. The record high (?) is 4.82B shares on Q3 end of quarter while 2.52B is 4th weakest of 20131.96B is the low). REAL NYSE Volume surged to a rare 892M shares from a below average 687M vs 683M vs 732M vs 670M (2.06B shares also on Sept. expiry was 3rd highest ever (6/30/06 3.38B; 7/12/02 2.29B while 482M on 7/3 in a shortened trading session is the 2013 low). The 12-month average is 723M shares. The average since 6/28’s 1.75B share day, is just 694M shares, ranging from 482M to 2.025B shares on 9/20. There have been just EIGHT 1B+ share sessions! There have now been 35 800M+ shares in 2013: 14 up, 19 down, and two mixed.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 33-864. They plunged to 252 vs 394 vs 460 vs 380 vs 500. Recent high is a super-strong 890!!! New lows rose to 79 from a weak 46 vs 29 vs 31 vs 34 vs 29.  

  1. Advance/Declines were negative again: -1.5x vs -2.4x vs +1.6x vs -1.2x vs +1.4x vs +1.4x (recent range -17.5x to +6x) on NYSE and -1.6x vs -2.8x vs +1.5x vs -1.1x vs -1.1x (recent -4x!!! to +3.8x). Breadth was similar: -1.8x vs -1.8x vs +1.8x vs -1.2x vs +1.5x (recent -18.6x!!! to +7.2x!!!) on NYSE and -1.1x vs -2.8x vs +1.4x vs -1.3x vs -1.2x (recent -12.8x to +6.5x).  
  2. NYSE Financials fell by 0.8% vs -0.5% vs +0.1% vs +0.2% vs +0.2%. BofA most active plunging -1.4% vs +0.1% vs +0.3% vs -0.6% vs -0.2%, closing at $1 +.02. It has struggled since hitting $15.03 on 8/1 – highest since Jan. 14 and major res. Brokers -0.95 vs -0.5% vs +0.4% vs -0.4% vs +0.4%; KBW Banks -1.1% vs -0.2% vs +0.1% vs +0.2% vs +0.3%; Nasdaq Banks -1.1% vs -0.2% vs -0.2% vs +0.5% vs +0.1%.
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) rose slightly with a session high of 14.02 vs 15.27 – highest since 10/16 before closing at 13.75 +.10. The recent range is now 11.83-21.01!!! It peaked at 22.79 on 12/28/12. It is still BELOW the 40 day (15.05), the 50 day (15.23) and the 200 day (14.39)…ytd the range is 11.05 (3/14) to 21.92 (6/24)!

Global stocks mostly weaker: UK +0.1% vs -0.4% vs +0.2% vs +0.6% vs -0.1%; France -0.3% vs +0.4% vs +0.1% vs +0.6% vs -0.7%; Germany -0.1% vs +0.1% vs flat vs +0.3% vs -0.2%; Japan -0.9% vs -1.2% vs +1.2% vs -0.5% vs +2.2% vs -2.8%!!!; Hang Seng +0.2% vs -0.4% vs +2%!!! vs +0.2% vs +0.5%; Korea +0.5% vs -1.4%! vs +0.4% vs +0.2% vs +0.7%; India +0.2% vs +0.6% vs +0.5% vs +1.7%!!! vs -0.6%. U.S. stock futures higher but in an extremely narrow range: DOW +47; SPX +4.10; NDQ 12.50.

Bonds closed lower ex the 30 yr and are weak overnight: 10 yr Treasury 2.58% -3/32 (recent range 2.99% to 1.63%!!!), and the 30 yr range 2.67% to 3.90%, 3.65% -5/16. The long TIP is 1.35% -1/2. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5. Recent high yield: 1.63%! Libor update: 0.242% 3 mos, 0.355% 6 mos. Both just a tad above  record lows!!! Banks remain cautious and loaded with cash!!! Foreign bonds little changed and mixed – but look at Greece, lowest yield since May 15th!!! Germany 1.69% +2; UK 2.63% +2; France 2.16% +1; Italy 4.10% -3; Spain 4.00% -2; Portugal 6.14% +3; Greece 7.83%!!!! -3!!! Another new low! Recent range now: 7.83%-12.57%. Japan 0.59% unched.

Gold was blasted losing over $25 with a low that $5 below that and are back below both the 50/40 day m/a’s now major res, closing at $1323.50 -$25.80!!! – a 7 day low! The recent low is $1251 on 10/15 – lowest since 7/10. Recent high was $1375.40 on 9/19.  6/27’s intraday low was $1179.40 – lowest since at least 2011 and critical support. $1300 remains psychological support, but major res now at the 40 day ($1326) and the 50 day ($1340). Major resistance at $1375, the 9/19 high. The 200 day is at $1430. Overnight it is being hit hard again again  to $1311.20 and remains weak at $1313.80 -$9.90!!!

Crude closed lower after falling to $96.03 before coming back to close at $96.38 -.39!!!. Last Thursday’s low was $95.95 – was lowest since 6/27 and was taken out overnight!!! It has shown no sign of strength since 9/18’s surge to $108.49. 9/19’s session high was $108.99! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. It is way below the 40/50 day m/a’s ($103.83-103.80), converged, and still major resistance! The 200 day ($98.73) is also major resistance. 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight is lower again at $95.72 -.66…with a session low of $95.59, lowest since 6/27!!!.

Some random thoughts:

TB has received just one letter on his rants of late and it said why not blame Obama, with a follow-up to impeach him? The author said Obama lied about his healthcare plan…concept: all politicians lie…but does this deserve impeachment?

How about shutting down the government and leaving the people without someone to do ‘their’ business for months? All so a few ideologues can overrule the majority. Want more?

  1. As cited yesterday, both parties and Obama are culpable but the use of extortion in shutting down the government (and the reason October payrolls won’t be until 11/8!), falls squarely on the shoulders of the GOP. Furthermore, Rand Paul’s plan to stop the nomination of the well-qualified Janet Yellen to pressure Dems on his Federal Reserve plan is unconscionable. We remain in crisis mode yet Congress is doing nothing!
  2. National health care was a GOP proposal, until the Clinton’s and later Obama jumped on it. As a result we have a bad law. The GOP claims they weren’t asked for input yet the Tea Party zealots didn’t want that, they wanted to kill it. As passed it is a seriously flawed act but one that is fixable. There are two major issues: first, we are a mobile nation and workers need to be protected. Since each insurer has to have a separate subsidiary in each state, some that are not profitable to work in have only a couple of insurers. Thanks to our brilliant Supreme Court and interpretation of the Constitution, it cannot be done at a federal level leaving it to the states many with corrupt insurance commissioners or good old boy networks. This is a major cost factor. The insurers are opposed to mobility as it means they cannot refuse to insure anyone or continue their insurance. Flawed. The second, like with Bush’s ill-advised Medicare Part D which was not funded and the real reason for Medicare’s problems had the added albatross of tying Medicare’s hands from negotiating prescription drug costs making them 30% higher than Medicaid’s…and Obama fell into this trap too! Seriously flawed
  3. As for the roll-out, the problems are inexcusable but TB has experienced similar with ill-designed programs in the private sector…so enough! Fix it!
  4. True unemployment remains high while the Congress sits on its collective fat (and wealthy) ass, while trying to cut all costs except the military…even giving them money they didn’t ask for…yet blaming it on entitlements, which can and should be fixed. Food stamps are not the problem…average cost $4 a day…and most going to children of families in poverty. Unemployment caused by a financial sector gone wild with no accountability and likely to repeat the process again. As a former banker I am thoroughly disgusted with the actions of the biggest banks and mortgage companies as well as Countrywide Savings. No one held accountable, except a handslap for Angelo Mozillo who is guilty of securities fraud! Meanwhile Congress continues to weaken Dodd-Frank as they are beholding to the banks and their contributions.
  5. A corrupted Congress whose members protect themselves and build up war chests that can be used for leverage after they leave office…many of whom have registered to become lobbyists…get it? Tea Party, why aren’t you stopping this?
  6. Congressional ethics? Never heard of it. Also they protect their own. Why hasn’t Jon Corzine been prosecuted? Because he is a member of the club…former Senator and Governor…and who fraudulently tried to sell the company to get his bonus while illegally borrowing from client accounts. Where is the justice in this?
  7. Blaming the Senate for a failure to pass a budget when the control is by the ideologues in the House. Boehner should step down as he can do nothing with this unruly crew. Holding up nominations for qualified individuals just to make Obama look bad and be ineffective…when he was re-elected by a majority of the people. How un-American! If you were asked to take an appointed position would you do it and place your life in limbo for perhaps a year? Not TB!

Impeach Obama? …and then what? Do you seriously believe that, even if successful it would accomplish anything. Meanwhile the white/blue collar Tea Party members continue to coddle the wealthy giving special tax treatment to the wealthiest Americans like carried interest that taxes investment income at 15%…how many of you who WORK for a living would like that? Also, the Tea Party loves to talk about all the members and their small contributions…bullshit…it was and is financed by the Koch brothers for their own benefit who must get a good chuckle every time they pick up the newspaper.

No, it should be impeach Congress…with an approval rating of less than 10% (lowest on record), but assured reelection in the House by their special districts which with a wink favor incumbents of both parties.

You tell me if the founding fathers would be proud of us and our new robber barons, who are unwittingly aided and abetted by misinformed individuals an a press that is either biased or gives time to fallacious remarks and causes just to appear ‘unbiased.’  No wonder our young people get their news from The Daily Show…comedy but with fact!

Enjoy your weekend…if you can…while the country disintegrates…its your kids and grandkids problem!

TB

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