10/31/13…it really is ‘even worse than it looks’

Today’s Quote from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “I’m a Catholic and I can’t commit suicide, but I plan to drink myself to death.” – Jack Kerouac…Sie trinken tott, sei drinken nicht tot, zo wievel tot trinken?” –German Proverb “If you drink you die, if you don’t drink you die, so why not die drinking?”

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Big sisters are the crab grass in the lawn of life.” – Charles M. Schultz

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Inflation Rate in Euro Area Drops to Four-Year Low as Unemployment Rises – !!!

*First-Time Jobless Claims in U.S. Decline as California Clears Its Backlog

*Goldman to Oracle Offer Euro Bonds as Cross-Currency Basis Swaps Tumble

*Energy Future Said to Ready $270 Million Coupon Payment as Deadline Looms

*Batista Repudiates Pimco-Led OGX Holders in Latin American RECORD Default

*Euro Gains Building as ECB Bank Test Sparks Repatriation

*EU Legislator’s Swaps-rule Plan Probably Breaks G-20 Accords, Barnier Says

*Facebook to Limit News Feed Advertisements as Young Teens Using Site Less

*Miami Billionaire Promoting Hospital Bond Driven by Obamacare

*T-Mobile CEO Legere Exerts ‘Un-Carrier’ Strategy While Trash-Talking AT&T

*Goldman Cutting Pay Shows Wall Street Poised to Have Bonus Hopes Quashed

*Obama Says Flawed Health-Care Exchange to Get Fixed as He Defends U.S. Law–oh?

*NSA Leader Ready for Spying Constraints He Says Will Make U.S. Less Safe

*Taiwan Quake Measuring 6.3 Shakes Capital Buildings as Chipmaker Evacuates

*More Device Usage on U.S. Flights May Be Approved After Tests by Airlines    

Wednesday’s Market Summary:

So much for the ‘nice’ rally in stocks, as all indices were down by about 0.5% except the Russell 2000 small cap which plunged 1.2%, and the Nasdaq 100 off just 0.2% but the devil is in the details.

Total NYSE Volume rose slightly for a fourth straight session to an average 3.53B shares vs 3.33B vs 3.19B vs 3.11B vs 3.63B. REAL NYSE Volume however remains at a below average 687M shares vs 683M vs 732M vs 670M vs 716M vs 709M vs 753M – a far cry from the prior Friday’s 892M shares – highest since 9/28’s 2.06B on quarterend.

The Nasdaq 100 was off 0.2% vs + 0.3% vs flat vs +0.5%. Note however that decliners outpaced by 3:1! Five members lost more than 1 point while three gained more than a point: CELG -1.4; GOOG -1.4 vs -1.8 vs +5.2; FOXA/BIIB -1.2;  CMCSA -1.2 vs -1; BIDU +1.3; AAPL +6.4 vs +2.6 vs -4.7 vs +5.7 vs +3.8 vs -1.2 vs +10 vs +3.5;  GILD +4.3 vs +1.2 vs -1.4; BIDU +1.4 vs -1.3;

Advance/Declines and Breadth were both negative. New 52 week highs dropped to 394 vs 460 vs 380 vs 500, while new lows finally rose to 46 vs 29 vs 31 vs 34 vs 29 – still weak! VIX rose slightly again, closing at 13.65 +.24 BUT with an intraday high of 15.27, highest since 10/16! Since hitting 21.34 on 10/9 – close to the 12/28 high of 22.72 and 6/24 high of 21.91.

Bonds closed weaker despite the FOMC assurance that the tapering is a long way off. But regained all the loss and more overnight! Gold rose slightly to close at $1349.30 +$3.80 –  Crude was trashed again putting in a low of $96.59 before closing slightly higher at $96.77 -$1.43 – WAY below the 200 day.

Dow 30 -0.4% vs +0.7% vs flat vs +0.4% vs 0.6%; Dow Transports -0.6% vs +0.2% vs +0.4% vs -0.2% vs +0.9%; Russell 2000 -1.2%! vs +0.4% vs flat vs -0.1% vs +0.7%; Dow Utilities -0.6% vs +0.2% vs -0.3% vs +1%!!! vs -0.1%; S&P 500 -0.5% vs +0.6% vs +0.1% vs +0.4% vs +0.3%; Nasdaq Composite -0.6% vs +0.3% vs -0.1% vs +0.4% vs +0.6%; NDQ 100 -0.2% vs +0.3% vs flat vs +0.5% vs +0.5%.

*NYSE Volume rose slightly to an average 3.53B shares vs 3.3B vs 3.19B vs 3.11B vs 3.63B. The record high (?) is 4.82B shares on Q3 end of quarter while 2.52B is 4th weakest of 20131.96B is the low). REAL NYSE Volume barely budged to a still below average 687M shares vs 683M shares vs 732M vs 670M vs 716M (2.06B shares also on Sept. expiry was 3rd highest ever (6/30/06 3.38B; 7/12/02 2.29B while 482M on 7/3 in a shortened trading session is the 2013 low). The 12-month average is 722M shares. The average since 6/28’s 1.75B share day, is just 694M shares, ranging from 482M to 2.025B shares on 9/20. There have been just EIGHT 1B+ share sessions! There have been 34 800M+ shares in 2013: 14 up, 18 down, and two mixed.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 33-864. They dropped back to 394 vs 460 vs 380 vs 500 vs 476. Recent high is a super-strong 890!!! New lows rose to a still weak 46 vs 29 vs 31 vs 34 vs 29.  

  1. Advance/Declines were negative: -2.4x vs +1.6x vs -1.2x vs +1.4x vs +1.4x (recent range -17.5x to +6x) on NYSE and -2.8x vs +1.5x vs -1.1x vs -1.1x vs +1.6x (recent -4x!!! to +3.8x). Breadth was similar: -1.8x vs +1.8x vs -1.2x vs +1.5x vs +1.4x (recent -18.6x!!! to +7.2x!!!) on NYSE and -2.8x vs +1.4x vs -1.3x vs -1.2x vs +1.2x vs -3.4x (recent -12.8x to +6.5x).  
  2. NYSE Financials fell by 0.5% vs +0.1% vs +0.2% vs +0.2% vs +0.4%. BofA 2nd most active again +0.3% vs -0.6% vs -0.2% vs +0.6% vs -0.3%, closing at $14.19 +.04. It has struggled since hitting $15.03 on 8/1 – highest since Jan. 14 and major res. Brokers -0.5% vs +0.4% vs -0.4% vs +0.4% vs +0.6%; KBW Banks -0.2% vs +0.1% vs +0.2% vs +0.3% vs flat; Nasdaq Banks -0.2% vs -0.2% vs +0.5% vs +0.1% vs +0.4%.
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) rose and surged to 15.27 – highest since 10/16 before closing at 13.65 +.24. The recent range is now 11.83-21.01!!! It peaked at 22.79 on 12/28/12. It is still BELOW the 40 day (15.05), the 50 day (15.23) and the 200 day (14.39)…ytd the range is 11.05 (3/14) to 21.92 (6/24)!

 European stocks higher ex-UK, Asia weak ex-India: UK -0.4% vs +0.2% vs +0.6% vs -0.1% vs +0.1%; France +0.4% vs +0.1% vs +0.6% vs -0.7% vs flat; Germany +0.1% vs flat vs +0.3% vs -0.2% vs +0.2%; Japan -1.2% vs +1.2% vs -0.5% vs +2.2% vs -2.8%!!!; Hang Seng -0.4% vs +2%!!! vs +0.2% vs +0.5% vs -0.6%; Korea -1.4%! vs +0.4% vs +0.2% vs +0.7% vs -0.6%; India +0.6% vs +0.5% vs +1.7%!!! vs -0.6% vs -0.2% vs -0.2%. U.S. stock futures lower with a broad range: DOW -10; SPX -3.30; NDQ -17.

Bonds closed weaker despite the FOMC statement indicating no tapering soon. Gained it back overnight: 10 yr Treasury 2.51% +9/32 (recent range 2.99% to 1.63%!!!), and the 30 yr range 2.67% to 3.90%, 3.62% +1/2. The long TIP is 1.29% +1/2. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5. Recent high yield: 1.63%! Libor update: 0.242% 3 mos, 0.355% 6 mos. Both just a tad above  record lows!!! Banks remain cautious and loaded with cash!!! Foreign bonds stronger led by Greece, Gilts off a tad: Germany 1.66% -3; UK 2.55% +1; France 2.15% -4; Italy 4.13% -5; Spain 4.03% -3; Portugal 6.13% -1; Greece 7.86%!!!! -36!!! A new low! Recent range now: 7.86%-12.57%. Japan 0.59% +1.

Gold closed slightly better in a nondescript session with the 50/40 day m/a’s still major support, closing at $1349.30 +$3.80. This after putting in a low of $1251 on 10/15 – lowest since 7/10. Recent high was $1375.40 on 9/19.  6/27’s intraday low was $1179.40 – lowest since at least 2011 and critical support. $1300 remains psychological support, major support at the 50 day ($1341) and the 40 day ($1327). Major resistance at $1375, the 9/19 high. The 200 day is at $1432. Overnight it was slammed to a 7 day low of $1322.10 and is still weak at $1326.40 -$23.00!!!

Crude closed sharply lower after falling to $96.59 before coming back to close at $96.77 -$1.43!!!. Last Thursday’s low was $95.95 – was lowest since 6/27 and now support! It has shown no sign of strength since 9/18’s surge to $108.49. 9/19’s session high was $108.99! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. It is way below the 40/50 day m/a’s ($103.13-103.95), crossed, plunging, and major resistance! The 200 day ($98.72) is also major resistance. 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight is lower again at $96.50 -.27…with a session low of $96.06!!!.

Some random thoughts:

I am sorry to pontificate but I don’t get it! What kind of people have we become as even a blind man can see the destruction of our government from within, yet no one does anything about it. Yesterday, TB began a book however that is keeping him from thinking it is he that is the insane one. We are paralyzed. Fortunately, the authors of this book, both respected and non-partisan, aren’t afraid to tell it as it is and how to cure it.

Its Even Worse Than It Looks by Thomas E. Mann and Norman Ornstein are highly respected political scientists with no political axe. Mann is with the American Enterprise Institute and Ornstein is with Brookings and they reach the conclusion that the problem with our government lies with the GOP….not that the Dems aren’t also culpable but it is the extremists within the GOP who make any kind of compromise impossible.

It was published in May 2012 and his highly critical of the media for ‘balanced’ reporting even when one side is clearly wrong. I have just about had it with our government…and neither side is doing anything to stop it. Why aren’t the Dems linking arms and speaking out as one as they did at Clinton’s impeachment? Because they too have been corrected. Pity.

Hope you will check it out.

TB

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: